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Australia must convince thirteen men it deserves to host the World Cup. If that sounds easy, think again. Those men are among the 24 members of FIFA’s executive committee, and the whole world wants a piece of them.
Australia, like all other bidding nations, must get onside a simple majority in the final ballot – that is to say thirteen votes.
But there is nothing simple about it.
As Prime Minister Kevin Rudd acknowledges, the politics of running the world’s most popular game can make the back-room machinations of the Labor Party look like child’s play.
That’s why Football Federation Australia chairman Frank Lowy calls it “one of the biggest challenges in sport”.
Those 24 men represent football’s six geographical zones.
They are dominated by Europe, with eight delegates, followed by Africa and Asia with four each, South America (Comnebol) and Central and North America (Concacaf) with three each and Oceania with one. FIFA President Sepp Blatter makes up the two dozen.
Sometimes they vote as individuals, sometimes en bloc.
Deals are done behind the scenes and the sands can be ever-shifting.
Negotiations might very well continue until the eve of the executive committee’s eventual vote in December next year.
Both the 2018 and the 2022 World Cup are up for grabs.
No continent can stage two consecutive World Cups, so either one is the prize.
There is little doubt that Australia has the capacity and drive to pull it off.
The 2000 Olympics, 2003 Rugby World Cup and 2006 Commonwealth Games are proof of that.
But in order to snare the World Cup, the Australian round-ball game will have to triumph over odds greater than those it has beaten in its greatest challenges of the Frank Lowy revolution – qualifying for consecutive World Cup finals in Germany in 2006 and South Africa next year, winning a berth in Asia and launching a successful domestic A-League competition.
There are eight rival bids for the 2018 World Cup.
Four are from Europe – England and Russia as well as joint bids from Holland/Belgium and Portugal/Spain.
Two are from North America – the US and Mexico, and two from Asia – Japan and Indonesia.
The same nine countries have thrown their hats in the ring for 2022, along with two others, South Korea and Qatar, making 11 candidates in all for that event.
England, a cradle of the game and home of one of the world’s richest leagues, will likely start a firm favourite for the 2018 championship.
Europe is the powerhouse of world football, hosting every second World Cup since the tournament started in 1930.
By 2018 Europe will have waited three cycles and England will have waited over half a century since its first and only crack in 1966.
FIFA President Sepp Blatter indicated at the world body’s congress in Sydney last year that it was Europe’s turn.
But Australia argues that Europe is a mature market and FIFA should ditch the status quo and go for “turbo-charged growth” in Asia.
If Australia misses out on 2018, however, it had better hope Europe wins.
Because if Europe doesn’t, it is scarcely conceivable the continent would miss out for a fourth time in a row in 2022, meaning Australia would go home empty-handed.
Opponents could argue Australia remains a comparative football backwater despite successes in Germany in 2006, where it reached the last 16, and in qualifying for a successive World Cup next year.
Critics maintain Australia is too remote geographically and too expensive for a couple of million world fans to travel to.
They would almost certainly argue that Australia’s time zone, 10 hours ahead of Europe, would be an impediment to maximising revenue from sponsorship and prime-time TV rights.
But Asia lays claims as a burgeoning economic power which is home to two-thirds of the world’s population.
There is little doubt that Asia’s claims as a host would be enhanced if Asian delegates got behind one of their candidates and backed it all the way.
Australia would seem to have solid prospects of being that candidate.
Its claims both on and off the field appear stronger than either Qatar or Indonesia and it is only seven years since Japan and South Korea jointly hosted Asia’s first World Cup.
Australia is the Asian confederation’s brash newcomer, but Mr Lowy maintains any regional jealousies have long been overcome and Australia is now among friends in Asian football.
Conversely, Europe’s cause could be made almost impregnable if the competing Euro nations back one candidate, but many consider that unlikely.
“I think you’ll have European countries voting against each other,” said Socceroo skipper Lucas Neill, “which I think could work to our advantage.”
Australia’s bid enjoys the support of both sides of politics.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has already committed $45 million to the bid for what he called “the greatest event on earth”.
And Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull vowed at last weekend’s official bid launch at parliament house that the coalition would line up with Labor “side by side, joined at the hip, as dual strikers, to bring the greatest show on earth to the greatest place on earth”.
Australia should be able to overcome domestic political problems in meeting FIFA’s requirements for 12 venues, two with an 80,000-plus capacity and the rest of around 45,000.
Already fitting the bill are the MCG and Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, the SFS and the Olympic stadium in Sydney plus Brisbane’s Suncorp.
Perth and Adelaide must get their acts together.
Newcastle and Canberra both have venues that are considered readily capable of an upgrade.
Townsville and the Gold Coast are being talked of as potential sites; so are Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
The idea is for an “all of Australia” bid, though football’s sudden emergence down under might stretch some friendships at home.
The World Cup takes place in June and July, during the break between European seasons.
That is smack bang in the middle of the AFL and rugby league competitions, which have had first call on many of the big venues that would be required for the World Cup.
This presents a whole new set of timing difficulties than those faced by the Sydney 2000 Olympics, held late in the footy seasons in September, and Melbourne’s 2006 Commonwealth Games, held in March.
The AFL and the NRL may not be happy about making way while soccer eats into their turf.
But FFA CEO Ben Buckley says soccer is working closely with the other codes to minimise the disruption and “they are very supportive in principle”.
The 24 men calling the World Cup shots for FIFA:
President:
Sepp Blatter
Europe:
Dr Michel De Hooghe (Belgium)
Marios Lefkaritis (Cyprus)
Geoff Thompson (England)
Michel Platini (France)
Franz Beckenbauer (Germany)
Vitaly Mutko (Russia)
Angel Maria Villar Llona (Spain)
Senes Erzik (Turkey)
Africa:
Issa Hayatou (Cameroon)
Jacques Anouma (Ivory Coast)
Dr Amos Adamu (Nigeria)
Hani Aboo Rida (Egypt)
Asia:
Junji Ogura (Japan)
Dr Mong Joon Chung (South Korea)
Mohamed Bin Hammam (Qatar)
Worawi Makudi (Thailand)
Central and North America:
Rafael Salguero (Guatemala)
Jack Warner (Trinidad and Tobago)
Chuck Blazer (USA)
South America:
Julio Grondona (Aregentina)
Ricardo Terra Teixeira (Brazil)
Dr Nicolas Leoz (Paraguay)
Oceania:
Reynald Temarii (Tahiti)
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