By Spiro Zavos
June 18th 2009 @ 12:57am
Prediction time, it must be the Springboks
British and Irish Lions team coach Ian McGeechan attends a training session in Johannesburg, Tuesday, May 26, 2009. The Lions are in the country for a three-test tour. AP Photo
Ian McGeechan, the coach of the British and Irish Lions, has had a year preparing for Saturday’s Test against the Springboks at Durban. On the evidence of the the tour matches so far, all of which have been won by the Lions, he has done a good job in creating a side to take on the World Champion Springboks.
But whether this Lions can win the series, or even a Test must be doubtful.
Most of the tour matches, like the match against the Southern Kings on Wednesday, have been sternly contested by the local sides, which have played under the disadvantage of not having their Springbok players to add quality to the team.
The Lions absolutely monstered the Southern Kings scrum and won a (dubious) penalty scrum from one of the demolitions. But in most other areas of play, and this has been true of the other matches as well, the Lions were beaten at the breakdown, were more than held in the lineouts, and gave up break-outs by the Southern Kings that should have resulted in tries.
Without buying into the matter of non-neutral referees, it is fair to say that the Lions were helped with the interpretations of the breakdown laws, especially imposed by the Welsh referee, Nigel Owens.
Saturday’s Test will be refereed by the New Zealander Bryce Lawrence, the second Test at Pretoria by the Frenchman, Cristophe Berdos, and the third Test at Johannesburg by Stu Dickinson, Australia’s most experienced and best referee.
With the last two Tests being played at altitude, you’d have to think that a sea-level Test will be the best chance for the Lions to roar away to a victory.
There is the factor, too, that the Lions have had plenty of matches and practice to work out systems and combinations.
Most of the Springboks have not played a serious match in more than a month. We saw with the All Blacks last weekend that even a couple of weeks out of game time can soften up players for the inevitable physical contest that hard Tests expose, or should expose, players to.
I asked a friend with good South African contacts what the thinking in South Africa is about the opening Test and the series. He said that early on in the tour the call was for a 3 – 0 series victory for the Springboks.
But there is less certainty now.
The feeling is that if the Lions are to win a Test, the Durban Test is the one.
And the British media has come around to a similar conclusion. After writing the Lions off in the early part of the tour, we now have veterans like Nick Cain of the UK Sunday Times arguing that “the British and Irish Lions have nothing to fear from South Africa.”
Cain insists that the parallels between this Test and the 1997 series, won by the Lions 2 – 1, are “uncanny.”
The 1997 the Springboks had an inexperienced coach, as they have right now. The 1997 Springboks did not have a sharp-shooter goal-kicker like the Lions, and they do not have anyone now to match Stephen Jones and Ronan O’Gara.
There is a weakness in the present Springboks side at first five-eights, as there was in 1997.
Cain also insists that the Lions have “greater world class claims” than the Springboks in their outside backs.
The thing about history is that it repeats itself less often than historians or journalists.
The present Springboks have a Rugby World Cup trophy under their belts. The rump of the side comes from the Bulls, who played such magnificent rugby in the finals of the Super 14. They have a tremendous lineout. The scrum is adequate. The halfback Fourie du Preez is the best player in the world right now. Bryan Habana has got his flash back.
They are a formidable side and they will be playing in front of their home crowd, which will not allow the Lions supporters to out-enthuse them the way they did with the New Zealand and Australian supporters in 2005 and 2001.
In 2001, the Lions surprised the Wallabies by playing a brilliant ball-in-hand game to win the first Test. That side had many of the players who went on to win the Rugby World Cup for England in 2003.
In 2005, these players were past their best, and their inspirational leader Martin Johnson was retired. The build-up to the first Test of the series against the All Blacks was phenomenal.
On a rainy, icy night the All Blacks tore the Lions apart.
You would expect something similar to happen at Durban on Saturday.
And there is one other consideration that should favour South Africa. The match will be played at 3pm. It has been noticeable that the dry fields and the afternoon light has helped the South African sides to play their hard driving, kick-and-chase, and opportunistic intercept game far more effectively than they can do at night-time when the lights, the greasy ball and a slippery pitch makes the ball-in-hand game very difficult to play and the attritional Lions game easier to play.
So prediction time has come.
The proviso must be made that I was singularly unsuccessful with my predictions on the outcome of the 2007 Rugby World Cup.
However, here is my neck on the chopping block. The Springboks will win the series 3 – 0. They will be too big, too fast, have too muck skill, and will just be too good for the well-coached but essentially pedestrian 2009 British and Irish Lions.
Now, let the axe fall where it will.
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Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 1:31am | Report comment
Mr. Zavos, I have to wonder if you have actually watched ANY of the tour thus far. The Lions teams have been the team trying to play the rugby, with most of the opposition content to defend and kick and spoil. To that extent this remarks is totaly and wildly inaccurate.
‘And there is one other consideration that should favour South Africa. The match will be played at 3pm. It has been noticeable that the dry fields and the afternoon light has helped the South African sides to play their hard driving, kick-and-chase, and opportunistic intercept game far more effectively than they can do at night-time when the lights, the greasy ball and a slippery pitch makes the ball-in-hand game very difficult to play and the attritional Lions game easier to play.’
If anything the wet weather has adversely affected the Lions simply because they have often been guilty of trying to string too many passess together.
My suggestion that you haven’t watched the matches is perhaps confirmed by your suggestion that the Southern Kings matched the Lions in the line out when in actuality Kuun’s air time was invaded with regularity, the result being that the Kings lost 4 lineouts.
Also, this is the equal shortest Lions tour in history, and the same starting xv has never played more than once, so I’m not this is totally true either, especially in contrast to the Springboks who have changed little over a lengthy period:
‘There is the factor, too, that the Lions have had plenty of matches and practice to work out systems and combinations.’
pothale said | June 18th 2009 @ 1:41am | Report comment
Bottom line though is Spiro thinks the Lions will get whitewashed and as he disarmingly admits, he’s been wrong before.
Me – I’ve got two images in my mind. The Boks against Scotland last November, and the Boks against England in the same month.
Which ones will turn up to work out a victory on Saturday?
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:11am | Report comment
Call it curiousity then, the same curiousity that makes me wonder how a good team could be both attritional and pedantic.
Greg Smith said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:17am | Report comment
I’ve watched this bunch of Lions and also a couple tours before and I’m only sure that the refereeing will deflate the Springboks. I just don’t know how much.
The rugby union fraternity doesn’t (and has never) permitted the Boks to get too big for their boots.
If this Springboks side was filled with super hero’s from the planet Krypton with X-Men like super strength and skills, the Test would still be a close affair.
That they’ll suffer isn’t the question, how much they suffer is ! If it goes to the wire, I’ll call it good clean fun. If it goes to yellow and red cards (or to a citing) … then I start muttering like it’s 1944.
The ref in the Southern Kings game also clearly didn’t have a clue. That penalty try surely isn’t part of ‘festival rugby’ ?
I might be in for a surprise and the whistle won’t blow more than 20-30 times … in which case 60 points for the Boks would be justifiable and a fair reflection of the talent, skill, esprit de corp and motivation differential of the sides.
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:21am | Report comment
A fair analysis, Greg. Can’t fault you there.
pothale said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:55am | Report comment
On the other hand….. back on planet Earth, if the Boks play anything like the Southern Thug Kings in their approach to the game i.e ‘how many Lions can we climb into to take them out of the game by any means available, then the game will be a lot tighter and more bruising. How come Mr Human doesn’t get on the test team sheet every game – what an asset.
I’m betting on it being more like the Southern Thugs game and a couple of yelllow cards for both teams.
it’ll give Bryce Lawrence something to remember in his less than stelllar career. And if he gives more penalties against the Lions than Nigel Owens did, I’ll eat my hat.
Dubious penalty try? Well if your dubious scrum just keeps deliberately collapsing, these dubious things will happen. Thankfully the Boks will not behave in the same way – they’ve got some pride.
Viscount Crouchback said | June 18th 2009 @ 3:00am | Report comment
Spiros Zavos writes a (perfectly reasonable) article suggesting the Lions might struggle to beat the Boks. Knives Out responds hysterically. Repeat ad nauseam until mid-July.
It’s just incredibly boring. Rather than crawling through every sentence looking for trivialities to call Zavos up on, why doesn’t KO explain why he disagrees with the bookmakers and every objective observer – all of whom are quite convinced that the Boks will win, and probably do so 3-0.
The truth is, he can’t. He’s been asked before to justify his bizarre faith in British & Irish rugby, and he fails lamentably each time.
pothale said | June 18th 2009 @ 3:08am | Report comment
VC – the bookies don’t think 3-0. The odds have shifted considerably.
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 3:33am | Report comment
There’s nothing hysterical in my prose, Viscount. The tone is respectful and measured, and I question some quite obvious flaws. I notice that you don’t rush to defend the questioned points. Why don’t you clarify what is unreasonable about my aforementioned points and expand upon them. You do that and then I’ll offer some analysis – of which there is none in the original article – and expand upon the various appropriate themes of the tour. I’d like you also to pin point the area of my questioning which confirms that I have denied a Springbok victory. Go ahead..
It must be a coincidence that you believe I pore over Mr. Zavos’ work and yet by making that very point you are appearing to pore over mine. You always pop up after I do and then dissapear back to your excellent blog – which I think everybody should check out by the way. It’s original, insightful and witty – perhaps with your tail between your legs.
Greg Smith said | June 18th 2009 @ 4:15am | Report comment
Oh jeez, kick off New Zealand vs South Africa (football) …. oh, what’s this… ah….. wishful thinking, I thought I saw Bakkies Botha on the football sides bench !
jools-usa said | June 18th 2009 @ 5:19am | Report comment
If ‘Boks get to O’Gara early he will resort to kicking & play into ‘Boks kicking game.
Feel he is a weak link & may starve inside backs of the ball.
Jools-USA
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 5:27am | Report comment
That is presuming that O’Gara starts, Jools. The vibe is that Stephen Jones will start, and my personal opinion is that he is a liability.
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 5:31am | Report comment
That said, Jools, with Steyn at 15 a kicking game might be exactly what the doctor ordered.
pothale said | June 18th 2009 @ 5:44am | Report comment
The Southern Kings tried to get to O’Gara yesterday – didn’t stop him doing what he does best. And he got his passes away. And put in a few none-to-shabby tackles either.
I suspect they may use Jones to get game going, and bring O’Gara on to steady the ship if they get their noses sufficiently in front and maybe add a drop goal or two. If he hits the right kind of form, he’ll ping the ball about the field all day, even it means giving away lineouts deep in the Boks 22.
Greg Smith said | June 18th 2009 @ 6:24am | Report comment
South Africa’s football side just beat New Zealand 2-0 and it’s brought me a the realisation that there is ONE element everyone is overlooking and that’s the crowd factor & rising tide of solidarity to thrash these Lions.
Here, in South Africa, it hangs in the air so thick, you could cut it with a knife. The Big 3 teams: football, cricket and rugby have been winding each other up. And it’s working. The football team just whipped the New Zealanders – the cricket lads have promised us a victory on Friday for a T20 final … that just leaves the rugby on Saturday ! The SA Treble.
It’s a kind of derby finish … and I wouldn’t like to be in the Lions shoes, I tell you, it’s powerful stuff !
van der Merwe said | June 18th 2009 @ 8:07am | Report comment
Greg, I don’t hold to the view that minnows should be given any “special” treatment, but agree the refereeing was bad. Nigel Owens is as crooked as they come.
pothale said | June 18th 2009 @ 8:11am | Report comment
Crooked? Define crooked VdM.
(As long as it’s not libellous against him, in which keep it to yourself.
)
Viscount Crouchback said | June 18th 2009 @ 8:55am | Report comment
Earth to Greg:
We’re talking about the New Zealand soccer team. I watched some of the game and I have to say that most of those All Whites would struggle to get a semi-professional contract in England. I have no idea why they are appearing in a (relatively) serious international football tournament. They were laughably bad.
If the Boks take inspiration from that, then they’re easily inspired. It makes about as much sense as the Lions drawing succour from England beating Andorra 6-0.
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 8:55am | Report comment
Is that a subtle gay jibe, van der Merwe?
Viscount Crouchback said | June 18th 2009 @ 8:58am | Report comment
KO,
You just seem to throw your toys from the pram every time one of the writers on here questions the strength (or prospects) of a northern hemisphere rugger team.
I don’t see the point of it. I think that people in the south are perfectly entitled to be sniffy about northern rugby until such time as the northerners string a few wins together.
The French have made a good start. Let’s hope the Lions back them up.
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:03am | Report comment
Viscoutn,
My tone was measured and respectful. I haven’t thrown my toys out of the pram at all. I merely questioned a few comments that I think are, as it goes, particularly questionable. Had Mr. Zavos questioned some of the selection (A lack of variety in the hooking berth, for example.), had he questioned the merits of Jenkins and Vickery versus Sheridan and Murray, had he questioned the form of O’Connell and the ability of Phillips to guide a backline, then fine. However, Mr. Zavos hasn’t really questioned anything, hence there is nothing to throw my toys out of the pram about. I merely contest two statements that he has made.
Terry Kidd said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:05am | Report comment
I tend to believe that the Lions might win a close one first up in Durban simply due to lack of game time for the Boks. However it will be a different story for the next 2 tests, the Boks will hammer the Lions mercilessly.
I don’t care if Jones or O’Gara start, I regard them both as questionable. Add to that the Bok lack of a quality 10 and it sort of evens out there.
I’ll have a dollar at 10 to 1 that Bakkies gets a cheap shot in on someone somewhere.
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:08am | Report comment
‘I’ll have a dollar at 10 to 1 that Bakkies gets a cheap shot in on someone somewhere.’
I think 1 to 10 is more realistic – and I’d still put everything on it.
The 3rd test is already done. History tells us that SA don’t lose 3rd tests.
Terry Kidd said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:15am | Report comment
Lol …. yes KO you are exactly right I stuffed my odds up.
Rugby Fan said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:37am | Report comment
I don’t think there are many Lions supporters who see the team as anything other than underdogs. If the series does end up as a 3-0 whitewash then I suspect we’ll all say “Of course, we should have expected that. What on earth were we thinking?” In that sense, most of what Spiro hs written is fairly sensible.
But it is sport, after all. I watched the first two Tests from the 1997 recently and was struck by how the Boks were probably better than the Lions but still managed to lose. Watching the second Test at the time, I recall being relieved that we managed to pull level and would happily have settled for a draw given how much pressure we’d been under. There was something slightly unreal about Guscott’s drop goal and the realization that we’d taken both the game and the series. It’s all the more ironic that Guscott’s name is synonymous with the 1997 tour because he hardly had a chance to touch the ball during those two Tests.
If the Lions do manage to win a Test match then you have to think that some or all of the following will have happened:
The Lions play out of their skins.
The Lions get opportunist scores against the run of play.
The Boks are overawed by the occasion and unsettled by the vocal Lions supporters.
The Boks get impatient and try to force the game but poor execution hands advantage to the Lions.
Lawrence cards a Bok or two for whatever reason.
A Bok icon (Botha? Matfield? Smit?) gets injured early and deflates the team.
The Boks miss their kicks.
One thing that worked for the Lions in 1997 is that they didn’t pull ahead of the Boks until late on in both Tests. Consequently, it only dawned on the South African players that they were behind and in danger of losing when it was too late to do anything about it. Unless the Lions can stun the Boks early on as England somehow managed on tour in 1994, that might also be the best pattern this year as well. Not that you can plan to do that, of course.
pothale said | June 18th 2009 @ 10:21am | Report comment
I reckon that two or three key Lions players will get injured across the first two tests e.g. Jones/O’Gara, O’Driscoll, Wallace, Mears, Bowe, Roberts. And then that will be that.
Might make more sense to just drop the tests and continue playing provincial teams – is it too late to change the schedule, do you think?
Mike hayes said | June 18th 2009 @ 11:07am | Report comment
If you look through the bok side, it is full of world class players. Bob Dwyer said in his book said that a great international side (15) will have 5 players as automatic selections in a world 15, 5 players pushing for world 15 selection and the remaining 5 are solid international players. I believe the current bok side fits this criteria with habana, du preez, spies, matfield and botha automatic world 15 selections.
In comparison the Lions side will not match the boks on paper. O’driscill is their only world 15 player. And the lions 15 will not compare with with the great sides of 1956 and 1971. It will be a handy, honest Lions side at best. Similar to the 95 side that went to NZ.
The Lions strength will be their scrum ( ta rgeting smit) and the rolling maul. If the boks negate these strengths they are half way there.
Im picking the boks to win the series 3 – 0 and tri nations as well. The wallabies will push hard in the tri -nations and the All Blacks will struggle. On another issue, the intrigue of 2009 will be if the NZ rugby union grant henry a two yr extension to his contract to take the side to the world cup if the ABs continue to struggle.
mattyp said | June 18th 2009 @ 11:26am | Report comment
RF – spot on mate. The Lions are in the classic underdog position, which should play right into their hands if they can build pressure on the Boks. When expectations are all one way, it does funny things to players psyches. Although I think your analysis is a little flawed in that you are assuming that the only catalyst for a Bok win could be something falling apart on their side. While I agree that they will probably overmatch the Lions, there is enough talent and class sprinkled through the Lions, that we may be surprised – as you point out, it is sport, after all, and funny things can happen.
Greg Russell said | June 18th 2009 @ 12:09pm | Report comment
To change the topic a little, I am unsure about the Springboks selecting three players out of position, viz. F Steyn at 15, R Pienaar at 10, and J Smith at 1. Don’t get me wrong, they are all excellent rugby players, and they can play these positions. But the honest truth is that these positions are not their best ones. It seems to me that the Boks chose their best 15 players and then fit them all in, as opposed to choosing their best player in each position. History shows that what the Boks have done is very dangerous, for rugby is a game for specialists. Just last weekend there was another example of this with the All Blacks. Yes, Adam Thomson had an excellent S14 season (at 6). Yes, in principle he seems to have the attributes to play 7. But he did not work out for NZ in that position, and they suffered for it. McGeechan will surely be delighted at the opportunity these selections have handed him. But will it be enough?
stuff happens said | June 18th 2009 @ 12:31pm | Report comment
Very interesting article & posts.I’m still not clear how well these Lions can play but I expect true British & Irish grit for eighty minutes which of course may not be enough. And yes Stephen Jones is no Phil Bennet let alone a Barry John but he has been revitalised since Warren Gatland has been in Wales and he’s the best the Lions have got .
As we know the ‘Boks are unpredictable and as Spiro points out some of the players must be underdone.When did Francois Steyn last play eighty minutes? When did he last play fullback?
One thing we will agree on I think is that the LIons have to win this test – they have little or no hope of winning the series if they lose on Saturday; basically the touring side has to win the first of a three test series.
Oh & Knives Out as far as ‘history telling us that the ‘Boks don’t lose third tests; in the ‘74 series the Lions won the Third Test 26-9, although it was a four test series.
Great weekend of rugby – most of the world’s best players will be on stage.
El Capitan said | June 18th 2009 @ 1:22pm | Report comment
On the topic of rugby, has anyone else heard the rumours that JC (John Connley) will be back at the Reds? Was just announced in the http://www.couriermail.com.au
fox said | June 18th 2009 @ 1:50pm | Report comment
El Capitan, looks like they’ve fired two clowns and replaced them with one muppet.
Virgil said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:00pm | Report comment
The Reds continue to amaze with their incompetent off field management, marketing and recruitment…. these imbiciles are still living in the 80s and can’t get it into their heads that they are a corporation and have to compete in an open market (within australia that is). Instead they’re still getting the old boys club to try and run the show…. how demoralising for us supporters.
LeftArmSpinner said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:13pm | Report comment
Spiro, dont worry about Knives, he’s still recovering from the Froggies and, as a result, has an exaggerated opinion of all things European. The Lions have the benefit of more footy but the Boks are better. 2-1 to the Boks.
LeftArmSpinner said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:17pm | Report comment
if Connolly is rising from the dead, just look at the difference Deans has made with the Wallabies in less time than Connolly had with them. Connolly couldnt even find someone to play 5/8 until the RWC started!!!!
If true, and I doubt it, then the Reds will remain the Koalas for years to come. there are plenty of good coaches around. Having said that, The Tahs couldnt organise a bunch of backs to catch and pass in more than 5 months, when it took Deans 1 week, so the Tahs are not far behind the Koalas.
Campbell said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:38pm | Report comment
Knives,
Why not educate us all and write YOUR OWN article – you certainly never seem short of an opinion.
Then we can jump in and critique it in your estimable fashion of cutting down every point made, while not providing much in the way of evidence to back your points up.
I note when someone (like Viscount here) has a go at your comments you generally just repeat your previous argument, rather than providing more information to sway a reader to your view. To me that does come across as somewhat hysterical.
And for mine – your comments do seem to read as somewhat of a personal attack more often than not. But maybe thats just me?
Campbell said | June 18th 2009 @ 2:41pm | Report comment
Ah yes – and 3 nil to the Boks!
retired rucker said | June 18th 2009 @ 3:07pm | Report comment
As mentioned by some cynics in a previous post, could the fix be in for the 1st test to make sure the last 2 are huge ratings success.
Is this being orchastrated by picking players out of position as clearly players could never be in the know.
Greg Smith said | June 18th 2009 @ 3:47pm | Report comment
Frustrated and over eager, the Lions will again start a shameful brawl 20-30 minutes into the game. 1 – 2 Red Cards for the Boks.
Are the Lions the dirtiest team playing Test rugby ? They are basically not held individually accountable because they have a sort of 007 licence to ‘kill’ as a result of their 4 nation make up ?
The scoreboard for the first Test could end up Lions 28 – SA 18 and South Africans might still feel like they have the MORAL HIGHGROUND as we suffer 1-2 red cards (maybe 1 red, 1 yellow) for retaliation PLUS a post match citing …
South African fans strangely count these type of losses as WINS… if we can show the Lions as gutter brawlers, job done !
That sets up a powerful come back … 2-1 for the Boks
Scott The Aussie in Devon said | June 18th 2009 @ 4:10pm | Report comment
If the Lions can win the first one it throws it wide open. Remember, this is a team that were beaten by both Australia and NZ by handy scores, and were nilled at home. At home.
On the downside the Lions are a scartch team, always will be to some extent. If they had a solid year together they could be a very good team, as it is it either comes off or it doesn’t.
2-1 to SA
Spencer said | June 18th 2009 @ 4:13pm | Report comment
First test. Either South Africa by 18 points, or B&I Lions by 3 points.
Campbell said | June 18th 2009 @ 5:42pm | Report comment
Nice fence sitting Spencer, see your a bob each way sort of man!
wannabprop said | June 18th 2009 @ 6:30pm | Report comment
Stuff Happens asks when did F. Steyn last play fullback? I’d love to know this too. I would think he makes an ideal fullback with his size, skill (and esp boot). With more time and space, he may avoid those well documented ‘brain explosions’ (although remains to be seen how he handles the different pressures at the back). If someone can enlighten me here as to his performance, I may just put this week’s wages on the B&I Lions.
Rugby Fan said | June 18th 2009 @ 6:37pm | Report comment
Does anyone envisage a situation where the Lions lose the first Test but win the second?
Most Boks fans I know who are calling the series 2-1 for their team remain confident that South Africa can take the first Test. When I ask them whether they believe the Boks will ease off in the final test if they clinch the series with the first two, all seem to believe that the Boks with be up for a whitewash to match NZ and avenge 1997. By that logic, the winning test for the Lions would have to be the second but it seems to me to be the least likely way for this Lions team to win only one.
I take mattyp’s point that the the Lions don’t simply have a chance based on the Boks falling apart. There are some experienced internationals in that squad with a lot of individual talent. If they can combine to put it in the service of the team then they ought to be able to give a hurry-up to most international opponents.
Certainly, there are plenty of things that can go wrong for the Lions. If the Springboks get early momentum and points in the first Test then we might be looking at a repeat of 2005. Everyone keeps talking about how the Wales/Wasps gameplan requires a precision that hasn’t been on display so far. However, if they can click then all bets are off.
One small thing that may work in the Lions favour is the commitment of the players. I know that the management have spoken about how well this team has gelled off the field but I can’t help wondering whether individual players have consciously or unconsciously been a bit selfish up until now. This can work two ways: a lack of commitment to avoid getting injured or an over-commitment in an attempt to stand out and get Test selection. Once the Test team is on the pitch, however, there’s nothing to hold back and there’s no need to go for glory if you can put someone else away instead. It’s a small difference – and it may be entirely illusionary – but if the Lions are going to win then it’s because they rise to the occasion through a change in attitude like that.
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 7:39pm | Report comment
How interesting that neither you nor Viscount actually contradict what I question, Campbell, hence I didn’t need to sway him to my view. Thanks for that, all the same. I wrote an article on the Lions front row. Why don’t you dig it out and critique it.
Stuff happens, there has been more than one Lions tour to SA, I believe.
–
It was all too casually accepted that the Lions pack would dominate the Springbok pack and vice versa for the backs. Without having seen the Lions selection I think that the exact opposite will occur. The Lions have to win the 1st test. Can they? I believe so. If they don’t win the 1st test then a 3-0 is on the cards.
It is also far too casually accepted that the Boks are ‘great’. I didn’t see anybody rush to label NZ great after the 3N or their European tour, so I’m not sure exactly where this line of thinking has come from.
Guy Smiley said | June 18th 2009 @ 8:20pm | Report comment
I think there is very little we can draw from the preliminary games except the Boks will be underdone and the Lions have to lift their game at the breakdown. Otherwise who knows – I have a feeling the Boks will take it out 2-1. This isn’t like 2005 in NZ where the gulf in class between the 2 sides was enormous and was accurately represented by a 3-0 rout. Although the Boks are awesome on their day they still play within themselves too often for a team of such talent. Maybe we’ll see them click on Saturday or maybe the Lions will wheel out their A game. Can’t wait.
Greg Smith said | June 18th 2009 @ 8:53pm | Report comment
Off on another tangent: The mexican wave at the Lions v Southern Kings game was brilliant.
I’ve never seen a mexican wave quite like it, where the entire stadium felt the Lions were an arrogant power worthy of boo’s !
About 30 Red Coats (Lions supporters in full military regalia) formed a part of the mid-field block of Lions fans (all in red jersey’s).
The mexican wave hurtled around and around BUT… ha, ha… screeetched to a stop of loud Boooo’s each time it got to the block of Lions fans who initially took it well but gradually weren’t playing along so cheerfully.
Generally fun was had by all (except, I guess, for the fella who’s pith hat now sits proudly on my pub wall !)
Lions Swag ! Sweet !
Justin said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:17pm | Report comment
Surely this is not the best SA team. Are there injuries in the backs? They have named a VERY average backline that will not have the Lions quivering. The forward pack will be a steamroll but is there much to finish it off?
Questions over 10, 13, 14, 15 IMO. Not enough football and not enough in the right positions to be selected . How could they leave out Tuna at 10?
Virgil said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:21pm | Report comment
Totally agree Justin. How can you not reward the best 5/8 of the S14 tournament with a starting jersey – he was leagues ahead of any other SA 5/8. Instead they wheel out someone to play out of position. Dubious.
jools-usa said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:24pm | Report comment
Hey Mike Hayes,
Would you not put O’Connell in 1st World Team, maybe with Matfield?
Don’t see any NZ, OZ, Fr, players as good right now.
Jools-USA
Justin said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:25pm | Report comment
Kirshner was far and away the best 15 also. Does Steyn have some dirt on someone? He is overrated, especially at 15!!!
Guy Smiley said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:42pm | Report comment
Dead right Justin -Steyn is hugely overrated. Although physical he offers little as an attacking threat. No subtlety at all and runs predictable lines plus wastes considerable ball with long pots at goal, of which he scores 1/3. Lee Byrne’s prodigious boot is just as good as his.
mcxd said | June 18th 2009 @ 9:42pm | Report comment
ive had enough…..please, please, just start the damn game.
van der Merwe said | June 18th 2009 @ 10:20pm | Report comment
“Questions over 10, 13, 14, 15 IMO.”
What’s your beef with JP?
Knives Out said | June 18th 2009 @ 10:48pm | Report comment
What’s your beef with 10, 13 and 15, van der Merwe? Or at least, why would you not question Justin’s questioning of those guys?
Guy Smiley said | June 18th 2009 @ 11:43pm | Report comment
10 – Morne Steyn should be playing instead of Pienaar – once again the Boks have gone into a Lions test without a first-choice goal-kicker, just like the 97 series and we know what happened there (better team went down through stupid selection policies). Played very little rugby in the last three months. I thought Steyn was the answer to SA’s perennial problem at 10 but PdV doesn’t agree
13 – Fourie is twice the player Jacobs is
15 – Frans Steyn is a poor fullback and doesn’t even like playing there, his preferred positions are 10 & 12 (he’s no good at 10 either). For all his talent he’s yet to carve a niche for himself, he’s a bit of a square peg. Like Pienaar, has very little match practice and wasn’t even expected to be over his knee injury in time for this game. Underdone.
Frank O'Keeffe said | June 19th 2009 @ 12:11am | Report comment
What in the world is de Villiers thinking putting Steyn at fullback? I suppose with Percy retired and Jantjes injured he had to come up with something, but golly he’s taking a gamble.
My prediction is the Boks will win this 2-1 with the final game being the decided. But I’m right behind the Lions and cheering hard!
Hopefully de Villiers has stuffed around with the side too much for the Boks to be supreme…
Mungehead said | June 19th 2009 @ 2:45am | Report comment
Prediction time? 2 – 0 to the Boks, with no close games. No offense meant Lions supporters, that’s just what I think.
Mungehead said | June 19th 2009 @ 2:46am | Report comment
Doh, mistype, I meant 3 – 0!
pothale said | June 19th 2009 @ 4:25am | Report comment
I’ve a feeling one of the games will get drawn. So 2-0 or 1-1 is a possibility, Mungehead.
Thurston Fallout said | June 19th 2009 @ 7:23am | Report comment
I see the result as 4-0 Boks. 4-0? How do I figure that? By the scores of the three tests.
A dab of Windex on my crystal ball reveals this: Saturday’s test in Durban will be 21-17 Boks, the second test will be 20-13 Boks, and the third 23-18 Boks. That’s an aggregate of 64 points for the Boks and 48 for the Lions. So a phantom fourth test, at the same ratio, makes that one 21-16 Boks.
For the Lions to go home whitewashed 3-0 is bad enough, but to have to return beaten
4-0…Geech will be slaughtered by the Brit and Irish media.
But what if I’m wrong and the Lions win the first test and, against all expectations, win the second as well? If this should happen, the Boks will be within their rights to lodge a protest and have any close rulings that went against them in the first test reviewed. If the review board upholds the Boks’ protest, then the third test decides the series except if the Lions win in which case the host team can lodge a protest regarding any close rulings in the second test.
At first glance this may seem a little biased, but a panel of SH rugby lawyers saw nothing wrong with it, and to judge by the sentiments expressed on this forum, I think most Roarers will think it eminently fair.
van der Merwe said | June 19th 2009 @ 7:40am | Report comment
Knives, Guy’s reasons are as good as any. Although, I’m intrigued to see Steyn at 15, considering how long calls have come for him play there.
fox said | June 19th 2009 @ 9:16am | Report comment
“The Tahs couldnt organise a bunch of backs to catch and pass in more than 5 months, when it took Deans 1 week, so the Tahs are not far behind the Koalas.” – LeftArmSpinner
As much as the backs coaching and management were questionable, the Tahs were, in fact, NOT behind the Reds at all. I would say the Reds were actually 6 spots on the ladder behind the Tahs, not the other way around.
Greg Smith said | June 19th 2009 @ 9:11pm | Report comment
The ’soft landing’ some say the British & Irish Lions have been gifted with the 1st Test in Durban (aka the Last Outpost of the British Empire) might actually backfire.
South Africans hammer those resident in Durban (and the province of KZ Natal) as Pom wannabe’s and I think the Springboks might want to use a Durban victory as an EXTRA insult or bit of salt in the wounds.
A Durban loss to the British & Irish Lions would be like ‘the Empire’ confirming their stranglehold on this territory and you could just about re-hoist the Union Jack !
Sullying the image of the Boks, red cards, yellow cards and citings form part of the battery the B&I Lions present the South Africans before we think of victory. (On the flipside, sullying the B&I Lions reputation, red cards, yellow cards, and citings should be what Springboks fans are looking for beyond a mere victory !)
With the referee situation as it is… I’d put my money on the British & Irish Lions to get their ‘boot in’ with the above Cards & Citings strategy – win or lose ! (It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Lions could be cited, pick up a yellow or heaven forbid a Red Card !)
It’s much easier to see the Boks reaping these !
My prediction – 1 citing and 2 red cards and 3 yellows before the 3N begins !
Shahsan said | June 19th 2009 @ 10:58pm | Report comment
When the Lions squad was first chosen I thought they looked very much like the squad of 1983: lots of worthy players but no real stardust quality, unlike the squads of 1989, 97 and 2001. They were also, like now, capatined by an Irishman, and Ireland are again champions of teh north. They 1983 Lions were beaten 4-0 by NZ, and like now, doubts have been raised about the captain.
But after watching all six of their buildup games, i think this team is different. It looks like a well-drilled, properly prepared team, and i think they will beat the Boks, who seem a litlle over-confident and underdone. But only in the first test. I think the Boks will go away chastened and come back to win the subsequent two.
Knives Out said | June 19th 2009 @ 10:59pm | Report comment
Everybody is backing SA so I might as well risk my arm and go for a Lions win. If the Lions win then SA aren’t a great team, and if SA win then they are the World Champions, after all. It’s win win scenario. I think the Lions have the backs to play that piano. Although, I would wager that with the amount of passes gone amiss from the Lions that Habana and JdV might pick up a few intercepts. I believe that the scrum will be an evenly matched battle and the game will come down to the lineout, place kicks and whose backs do more with the ball. Lions for me. Yeehaa!
Sam Taulelei said | June 19th 2009 @ 11:30pm | Report comment
Lions to win first test by 10 points. Doesn’t suggest that SA are not a great team if they lose but the Boks are taking unnecessary risks with their selections at 10 and 15 when they had in form candidates available. The loss of Burger will be keenly felt despite the impressive form by Heinrich Brussow in the Super 14. The Lions have selected a solid and in form side that certainly looks and plays like a united and focused team. It is a well balanced selection and shows the value of giving all the players games to impress in the leadup to the first test with little evidence that this was a preconceived selection a la Woodward in 2005.
Shahsan said | June 19th 2009 @ 11:50pm | Report comment
Yes, or Graham Henry in 2001. If McGeechan can pull it off a series win he will not just win a test series, he will also be debunking claims by henry and Woodward that the only way Lions tours can work is if you select a first XV and cottonwool them and play the drirtrackers against the provincial teams.
pothale said | June 20th 2009 @ 12:21am | Report comment
Had a quick peek into Mrs Pothale’s Crystal Ball (whilst she was out counting the stars) and the strong feeling of karma coupled with the sun setting at 21.19 on that day indicates that a team using the colour green will win the game.
Have visited young Mr PaddyPower and am considering putting my French winnings on the correct team at odds of 11/5.
However, another French upset victory on Saturday would yield better results at 10/3.
Decisions, decisions…..
Knives Out said | June 20th 2009 @ 1:30am | Report comment
I disagree there, Sam. The word great is bandied about all too easily. I said to a Springbok fan a few months ago that if SA were a great side as has been regularly claimed, they would experience a S14 win (box ticked), a 3N win featuring away victories and in between those two a 3-0 whitewash of the Lions. If you think about it, there is no way a Lions team should win an away series. No way.
Knives Out said | June 20th 2009 @ 1:49am | Report comment
..Excuse me..
Anyway, point I was making, Sam, is that the Lions can’t really lose, I suppose. There’s no expectation from the outside and nobody in SA seems to respect or rate them, so what have I got to lose? Lions by 15, what the hell?! I definitely won’t be making any bets with that score difference in mind, however.
ohtani's jacket, said | June 20th 2009 @ 2:13am | Report comment
What is it with the Test selections in the SH of late? Why does every coach want to reinvent the wheel?
Greg Smith said | June 20th 2009 @ 4:09am | Report comment
I see Kings Park Stadium management in Durban is worried the place will be all red. Durban is home to a huge amount of ‘new’ (English passport waving) South Africans who rapidly put their red jumpers on at the drop of half a crown…
Organisers have called for a bit of green ! Basically a home game for the Lions, I’d say ! Or the closest thing they’re likely to get to one in South Africa.
Miss this opportunity… then it’s all uphill to Loftus & Ellis Park …
Knives Out said | June 20th 2009 @ 4:56am | Report comment
‘I see Kings Park Stadium management in Durban is worried the place will be all red. Durban is home to a huge amount of ‘new’ (English passport waving) South Africans who rapidly put their red jumpers on at the drop of half a crown…’
That’s excellent, Greg. Comment of the day. Keep slugging big guy.
Viscount Crouchback said | June 20th 2009 @ 4:57am | Report comment
Do you mean British emigrants, Greg? Or just English-speaking locals?
Knives Out said | June 20th 2009 @ 6:08am | Report comment
The more I think about the initial Lions selection the more puzzled I become. The SA forwards are likely to be better equipped to play a dynamic game on the harder dry grounds due to the ELVs and the fact it is their back yard, what they greq up with. Their weakness lies in the tight, and yet McGeechan and company select a team designed to test their fitness ? I may be being stupid here but I thought the genesis of success lay in the tight, especially if one team has a very dominant scrum and the other has a mediocre scrum. I hope the backs can save the day.
pothale said | June 20th 2009 @ 6:26am | Report comment
I suspect he means British immigrants, VC, from where he’s standing.
Greg Smith said | June 20th 2009 @ 6:25pm | Report comment
I’m an English speaking Saffa ! But I’d never support the Lions. However, you get some idiots that do (also South African ones – you know the type eternally riding an English high horse ?!)
We have a variety of derogatory nicknames for them : –
1. Nupee’s (the new Pom – fresh off the boat 1st generation)
2. Soetpiel (Afrikaner term for ’salty penis’ – the image of a person with one leg in Africa & another in England & his penis dangling in the Atlantic (nowhere near the British Virgin Isles – unfortunately) is implied)
3. Rooi nek (Afrikaner term for scarlet or rose-red types adjusting to sunburn, literally ‘red neck’)
3. Mlungu (Xhosa term (although more general for all Europeans) the name of the white sea foam/froth that drifts in off the ocean
Judge, Sir, Mister, Your Honour, Your Majesty or Your Highness, Redcoat, Brit, Pom, Pommies, fUK’ers(From the UK), Engelsman(Englishman – usually said in thick Saffa accent) and Boss could also be used with varying degree’s of insult or irony.
Not long till kick off now – got myself 2 bottles of US$2 fine Saffa red wine and having a BBQ with the family – win or lose, you can’t go wrong ! If the Lions don’t win today … it’s gonna be a long tough tour for them (almost want to give a wee shout for them… nah !) – Boks 38 – 31 but with a red card & post match citing (and if I get my wish… they’ll make it count and take BOD’s head off !) Watch out for Jacque Fourie off the bench BOD !