Karlovic’s big serving game can crack Federer
Roar Guru
By Alan Nicolea, 1 Jul 2009 Alan Nicolea is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- Grand slam, Ivo Karlovic, Pete Sampras, Robin Soderling, Roger Federer, Tennis, Tsonga, Wimbledon
Roger Federer is going for more than his sixth Wimbledon crown this year. The Swiss master is just one Grand Slam win away from breaking Pete Sampras’ record as the player with the most Grand Slam tournament victories in men’s tennis.
The world number one ranking is also on the line for Federer as he bids to reclaim the crown that Nadal so famously took off him last year in the Wimbledon final.
His supreme form on the all England court so far suggests the Swiss maestro will make history in the final chapter of Wimbledon 2009.
He is yet to drop a set so far in the tournament, and he looked his usual flawless self against French Open runner up Robin Soderling in the fourth round.
Despite all the gloss on Federer’s campaign so far, his quarter final match up against Croatian Ivo Karlovic could potentially turn very sour.
If Federer’s run to the second week of Wimbledon has been impressive, Karlovic’s form at the moment is unrivalled, such is the skill and power the 30 year old is currently displaying.
After just four matches, Karlovic has served a mammoth 137 aces and is yet to be broken in the tournament.
Not even established top ten stars Fernando Verdasco and Jo Wilfred Tsonga could find the form necessary to upstage arguably the most dangerous serve in men’s tennis today.
Against Verdasco, the Croatian did not even face a break point throughout the entire match.
He took the Spaniard to three tie breaks and eventually took the chances necessary to post a 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 victory that now puts him in a Grand Slam quarter final against Federer.
Having won just four ATP titles in his career, not to mention losing in the first round of Wimbledon in the past four tournaments, Karlovic also faces the daunting task of upstaging an opponent that has won eight of the ten previous encounters between the pair.
Although that statistic points to a resounding Federer victory, it must be noted that of the 22 sets his played against the Croatian, 12 have gone to a tiebreak.
Karlovic’s last meeting against the Swiss maestro in Wimbledon was back in 2004, when he lost valiantly in straight sets 6-3, 7-6, 7-6.
Despite the damning evidence against Karlovic, this is no doubt the Croatian’s best chance to defeat Federer in a Grand Slam.
His service game at the moment is unrivalled, and it is the one aspect of his game that his illustrious opponent cannot match.
Compared to Karlovic’s 137 aces, Federer only has 59, which places him fifth overall in free points won on serve.
The Croatian is also dominating the percentage of first serves won in the tournament so far, with an astounding 91 percent, compared to Federer’s 85 percent.
Toss all these statistics in a blender and Karlovic’s chances against Federer are much greater than many people realise.
Although Federer will remain firm favourite to continue his march towards history, do not be surprised if Karlovic serves well enough to derail the Fed express and send his bid for sporting immortality off course for at least a couple of months when the US Open rolls around.
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Dave said | July 1st 2009 @ 2:38am | Report comment
Federer has dropped a set, against Kohlschreibber (sp?) And Federer has won 8 of 9, not 8 of 10, the only loss being last fall when he was still feeling the effects of sickness and the loss of Wimbledon. Still, Karlovic is dangerous. Point taken.
Rangu Ranganathan said | July 1st 2009 @ 4:17am | Report comment
Karlovic has the serve, no doubt. But he doesn’t have anything else, although he has improved. Federer has got all the weapons – serve, forehand, return game, net game, backhand variety – slice, flat, topspin (especially on grass). Also he has an exceptional tie-break record against any player including Nadal. So, no matter how out the world Karlovic plays (which is unlikely) Federe will beat him in straight sets. Keep in mind that the mighty Fed is feeling perfect and playing very relaxed and confident.
Hobart Frisbee said | July 1st 2009 @ 6:27am | Report comment
Wimbledon has seen quite a few so-so players go a long way on a serve. Colin Dibley, the Aussie who owned the bigest serve in the wooden racquet era (Falkenburg’s was only slightly bigger according to Rosewall and Hoad) made the quarters at the Big W twice.
Mark Woodforde said Ivanisevic’s serve could be totally unplayable on grass, but then
Ivanisevic, unlike Dibley, could return well. If Karlovic’s groundies desert him, as has happened in the past, it’s all over.
Alan Nicolea said | July 1st 2009 @ 9:25am | Report comment
Dave
You are right, cannot believe i missed the Kohlscreibber set. My bad. I could swear they have played ten times though. I have watched them go head to head ten times. Oh well, must have been watching a replay or something.
Rangu and Hobart
Indeed you both make valid points. But one cannot deny the fact that this is Karlovic’s best chance at upstaging Federer. The Croatian has already cast aside top ten hopes Tsonga and Verdasco, who themselves can cause Federer strife. Although Federer is rightfully favourite, do not get a heart attack if Karlovic keeps the Swiss maestro on centre court for a period longer than anyone expects.
Malibu77 said | July 1st 2009 @ 10:51am | Report comment
Perhaps Karlovic needs to invoke the spirit of Douglas Jardine with a bit of Bodyline?
Forget about serving for the corners or lines – go for the body. He’s got a huge weapon – he should use it to unsettle the great Federer. Knock his block off, I say old chap!
Benjamin Conkey said | July 1st 2009 @ 12:54pm | Report comment
Even if Karlovic serves well..Fed will just get one second serve back in the Tie-Break..and Karlovic will be all at sea.
Federer plays the big servers better than anyone. Just look at his record against Roddick.
alan nicolea said | July 1st 2009 @ 1:04pm | Report comment
Benjamin
Any player in the top ten at the moment can handle Roddick’s serve. Karlovic’s serve on its day however, is much more imposing and powerful IMO. Indeed Federer is the master of playing against big servers, but even he has struggled containing Karlovic’s serve in comparision to his performances against Roddick. All in all, do not discount the possibility of a surprise.
ohtani's jacket, said | July 1st 2009 @ 1:06pm | Report comment
I’ll discount it right now: Federer won’t lose.
Mushi said | July 1st 2009 @ 1:10pm | Report comment
I think you just need to look at his record against Roddick and see a dangerous serve isn’t exactly a great indicator of success.
I think that if you want to beat Federer when he’s playing well you either need the range of weapons available to an injured Spaniard, or the high risk attack game that a player like Safin used from that Australian open.
Karlovic doesn’t have the attacking ground game (see the number of tie breaks) to do anything to the Federer serve. He may have a better chance than I think, but that’s only because I was thinking I had a better shot at lotto last night than he has against Roger.
Rory said | July 1st 2009 @ 1:29pm | Report comment
Karlovic would have to have a freak of a day. Even Roscoe Tanner could rely on the odd groundie.