By Kersi Meher-Homji
July 5th 2009 @ 6:43am
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Who will win the Ashes?
Dec. 18, 2006 file photo of Australia's Matthew Hayden holding up the Australian flag as he celebrates with his team mates after Australia regained the Ashes on day 5 of their 3rd Ashes Test against England in Perth. Hayden announced his retirement from international cricket today, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2009. AAP Image/Dean Lewins
Wherever I go – to the movies, on trains, at Restaurants – the topic of discussion among cricket lovers is: Who will win the Ashes starting Wednesday?
But only a fool can play Nostradamus. In 2005 I had predicted that Australia will win 4-0 with one draw. And what happened? England regained the Ashes 2-1 with two draws.
This year it is more difficult to pick a winner as Australia’s wings are trimmed with the absence of match-winners Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer and Adam Gilchrist.
However, both England and Australia have won their last Test series, the former against the West Indies at home and the latter against South Africa in South Africa. But Australia lost the final Test at Cape Town by an innings.
Australia does not appear as invincible as they did before 2008. The retirements of Warney, Gilly, Haydo, McGrath have no doubt contributed. But to me the captaincy of Ricky Ponting is not as dynamic as Steve Waugh’s. Steve inspired his team, pulling them out from crises, just as Allan Border did in 1980s and Ian Chappell in 1970s.
Australia today is rich in young fast guns Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle. If they strike early, England will be in trouble. If they don’t, God save Australia. Stuart Clark and Brett Lee are capable but have not played at the highest level for a long time. And to depend on an inexperienced spinner Marcus North and part-timer spinners Simon Katich and Michael Clarke is asking a bit much.
Well, I have left out the only specialist spinner Nathan Hauritz and I hope he makes me grovel by performing well.
Both Australia and England have strong batting line-up, the Aussies with Katich, the young Phil Hughes, Ponting. M Clarke and M Hussey, and England have Andrew Strauss and a potential match-winner in Kevin Pietersen.
All I can predict is an exciting series with both teams not at their best and rebuilding.
Let us crunch some numbers.
From September 1880 to June 2009, Australia played 151 Tests in England, winning 46, losing 43 with 62 drawn. Of these, two Tests (one each in 1880 and 1882) were played before the legend of Ashes was born in 1882-83, England winning in 1880 and Australia in 1882.
It is be interesting to find who has scored most runs and taken most wickets for Australia and for England in the Ashes series in England.
As to be expected, Don Bradman has scored most runs in England, 2674 runs at an average of 102.84 in 19 Ashes Tests. The best from England is Graham Gooch, 1519 runs at almost one-third Don’s average, 34.52, in 24 Tests.
Three Australians (apart from the Don) have outscored England’s most prolific, Gooch. They are Allan Border 2005 runs, Steve Waugh 1633 and Mark Taylor 1584.
Among bowlers, Shane Warne rules the roost, 129 wickets at 21.94 in 22 Tests. The best from England is Ian Botham, 78 scalps at 25.61 in 17 Tests. Like in batting, three Australians (apart from Warne) have captured more wickets than Botham; Dennis Lillee 91, McGrath 87 and Terry Alderman, 83.
Thus Australians have out-batted and out-bowled England in the Ashes in England. Not that it means much as the new series commences and the umpire says “Play”.
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vinay verma said | July 5th 2009 @ 8:03am | Report comment
Sttistics, dammed statistics. Theyare like icebergs or overdressed Victorian marms. The interesting bits ar hidden( and I did say bits)
sheek said | July 5th 2009 @ 8:13am | Report comment
Kersi,
It’s a good thing England play cricket & rugby, & not the USA (well, they play rugby, but not yet at a frightening standard).
England, & by extension, Great Britain or UK, are great underachievers, assuming the talent they can generate. Consequently, Australia can rack up easy wins even when our own team, in any sport, isn’t crash-hot!
Therefore, Australia will win the 2009 Ashes because I expect they will have more performers across the park. The critical battle I think, will be Mitchell Johnson versus Kevin Pietersen.
Johnson already wins hands down in the most beautiful partner stakes!!!
Spiro Zavos said | July 5th 2009 @ 8:55am | Report comment
When I saw Kevin Pietersen in his new racoon blond hairdo I reckoned that Australia would win the Ashes series. There should be a law in sport that the more outrageous the hairdo, the less effective the players is on the field. If Pietersen does not fire, then England are in trouble.
One of the keys in the opening partnerships. England have a sound pair in Cook and Strauss but it is not a dominant combination. Australia has a potentially dominating pair in Katich and Hughes, if Hughes can fire the way he dis against South Africa. England’s spin bowling is better, but not much better than the part-timers Australia has. Australia probably has the better fast attack, if Brett Lee can come good for one last time.
The Australians are a much tighter team than England which has problems with too many former captains in the sidee still vying for the limelight. Flintoff is a loose cannon who can do immense damage to either side with his bowling/batting on the field and his antics off the field.
In other words, as Kersi says, it is hard to predict an outcome except to say that Australia’s great effort in South Africa suggests that the team is on the up and ready for the challenge of defending the Ashes in England.
Kersi Meher-Homji said | July 5th 2009 @ 8:56am | Report comment
Vinay,
Yes indeed damned statisticians and liars! But when Bradman and Warne finish at the top in batting and in bowling, stats can’t lie. Sometimes averages can be misleading as a relatively unknown West Indian Andy Ganteaume averaged 112.00 in his entire Test career of ONE Test, ahead of The Don’s 99.94 in 52 Tests.
But aggregates are meaningful when the players have played similar number of Tests. And by aggregate, in the Top 5, Australia has produced top 4 in batting and in bowling. I have restricted to figures in Tests in England as it is more relevant for the series to start on Wednesday.
However, this does not mean Australia will win the Ashes this British summer. But I hope you are correct, Sheek.
What I really look forward to is a repeat of 2005 series with the results reversed!
vinay verma said | July 5th 2009 @ 9:59am | Report comment
Kersi- I believethe key to this Ashes series will be the number three batting position. This has historically been ocupied by the sides’ best batsman. If Pietersen is indeed England’s best he should put his hand up and bat there.
When you have two great number threes,like Harvey and O’Neill in the late 50’s and 60’s they alternate three and four. Like you have with Dravid and Tendulkar. Think Headley and Hammond in the 30s’. I always believed Hazare should have batted three on the 1948 tour Down under. Same with Nourse from SA and Dennis Compton of England.
Ian Chappell strode out at numer three and either dictated or wrested the initiative back.
Miandad batted four and early on Lara too ,but when he took on three the Windies were better. Viv Richards at three could counter attack aginst Lillee.
Ponting sometimes is criticised for going hard early. Ian Chappell ws criticised for playing the hook shot and he always said he scored more runs with the hook and usually got out after a good score. Ponting has scored the majority of his Test hundreds,37 and counting, at the pivotal number three.
This is where Australia will win or lose it.
Kersi Meher-Homji said | July 5th 2009 @ 11:23am | Report comment
I agree Vinay, that no.3 is a vital position but a key to win the Ashes? I’m not that sure. The openers and no. 4 are just as important. Also a capable all-rounder. And a wicket-keeper and athletic fielders.
To me, the match winners are the bowlers, quickies to make batsmen duck and hop, and spinners to make them hope for the best. England’s Harmison has struck the first blow for the English. Also he won’t be home sick as he was in Australia in 2006-07. And Lee against Worcester produced his best ever in England.
There are two Flintoffs, Dr Jekyll Flintoff and Mr Hyde Flintoff. Dr Jeckyll Flintoff will put Australia on the back foot when batting and bowling. Also much depends on Pietersen.
Australia is a better balanced team (apart from lacking a quality spinner) and do not rely on 2-3 stars as England do.
The urn is delicately poised with Ponting’s men ahead by a whisker.
vinay verma said | July 5th 2009 @ 11:40am | Report comment
Kersi- 3-0 toAustralia with no 3 being the vital number
Nird99 said | July 5th 2009 @ 11:43am | Report comment
I agree that much for England rests on the shoulders of Pieterson. I think just like flintoff he is also very unpredictable. I believe that he has a tendency to throw his wicket away, and tends to have big lapses in concentration which is something you cannot have when you want to make big imposing scores.
I do think the teams are pretty evenly poised. One of the keys for me when the Englishment took the Ashes in 05 was the captaincy of Michael Vaughn. It seemed for once england had a skipper that thought about the game and paid some attention to the mental side of the game that is so important in test cricket. This was also a strength for Steve Waugh who was a huge believer in test cricket and therefor placed importance on mentally preparing. it seems to me that with 20/20 and one day cricket the mental hardness required for test cricket has slipped a bit and the Australians certainly showed the lack of this against SA in Aus last summer.
Without Flintoff being hampered by the captaincy, I think his game will again flourish. Steve Harmison will be very ineffective I believe. If there is one thing we have seen is that sheer pace is no longer the weapon it used to be. Lee has had to learn this as have other quicks around the world. I feel that steve is very one dimensional and will not have a huge impact.
I am still undecided as to whether the mental scars of losing 5-0 in Aus will be a hinderance or a help to the English.
Let the series begin and let us see all of the talent on show from both teams (but Australia to win)
Brett McKay said | July 5th 2009 @ 11:51am | Report comment
Kersi, with both teams the way they are currently, it seems as easy to answer “Who will win the Ashes?” as it is to know this weeks Lotto numbers!!
The only thing I can say with any certainty is that it will be closer to 2-1 than 5-0…..
Justin said | July 5th 2009 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
I wouldnt worry too much about Flintoff, he has had 2 good years in Test cricket and the rest have been decidedly average. We dont need an all rounder, but its a mistake the selectors keep making by trying to find or invent one.
Agree that bowling is the key and as long as our quicks bowl at 80% potential I think we win. The poms batting is brittle against quality bowling although Swann is far superior to anything in the slow bowling department we have at present.
I will roll all over the floor if Haurible is picked. Neilsen said today he ic coming along nicely. Fark me, how does this bloke get the coaching gig with absolute sh!t like that coming out of his mouth!
sheek said | July 5th 2009 @ 4:13pm | Report comment
Brett,
Watch out for those splinters! ….. (hugs & kisses).
Brett McKay said | July 5th 2009 @ 4:50pm | Report comment
ha, thanks Sheek!! Much easier leading into a series!!
vinay verma said | July 5th 2009 @ 6:32pm | Report comment
Kersi=Last comment as I wll be away for a week and it is up to you to keep roaring.
Of all the Captains in world cricket today Dhoni and Smith are the most likely to get the extra out of their players. Ponting is held in awe because of his batting and fielding. If he can impose himself on the game,and he can do this from umber 3,he will lift his team. He has scored 13 of his 37 hundreds since he became Captain. His 150 odd in 2005 helped salvage a draw. He has had a quiet 18 months and Ihave a feeling this will be his most memorable series. I am tipping him to score 3 hundreds in the series and stick by 3-0.
Finally,Australia have to get the snarl backin their cricket. Cucumber sandwiches can wait till the series is won. Ray Illingworth famously said “the only reason for England to play is to beat the Aussies.”
Kersi Meher-Homji said | July 5th 2009 @ 7:38pm | Report comment
Enjoy your trip to India, Vinay. Roar will be tame without you.
So Ricky will score 3 centuries batting at no. 3 and Oz winning 3-0. What a trifecta!
SouthernWaratah said | July 6th 2009 @ 1:03pm | Report comment
I’m sick of reading about Australia’s side without its old Stars, McGrath, Gilly….. yarda Yarda YARDA!
It’s been several seasons without them all and winning in Jar Jar land means we’re on the right track. The fact that the only English bat that’s being talked about tit KP suggests a real threat to England Scorings runs! (I’m a broken record at the moment). There’s great hype about sure, but Strauss & Cook will struggle against the mongrel Siddle and Johnson. Graeme Smith (Arguably the form opening bat currently in the world) has a couple of damaged fingers to atone for our bowlers. I dare say the flat track bully – Cook – might well be counting his digets by the end of this series.
Prediction for the series: Harmisson to be in the Test team by series end with Nasser Hussain saying – “He should have been there all along”