Put your house on a drawn Ashes series
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By Alec Swann, 10 Jul 2009 Alec Swann is a Roar Pro
- Tagged:
- Australian Cricket, Cricket, english cricket, The Ashes
Sat on my sofa, watching the England tail wag, it’s clear that this series is going to be a tight one. Aside from Glenn McGrath’s standard predicition – he’d say 5-0 to the Aussies, even if it was a three-match series – everyone before the first Test got underway had one of the sides winning by the odd game.
And I’ve seen nothing that makes me think otherwise. Two-all was my prediction in a newspaper column I write and that isn’t going to change.
There has been a verve about England’s play which suggests that they feel the Ashes are winnable and that Australia can be pushed where they want them.
Too often that hasn’t been the case and the result has been that Australia have been allowed to do as they pleased. The one exception has been the one time in over two decades when England have come out on top.
On the evidence of the initial skirmishes in Cardiff, the Australian bowling hasn’t the aura it once did and England believe that this is where they can dominate.
You won’t win games if you can’t post totals so 400 plus first time out is a good start.
However, it is safe to say that Australia will be thinking exactly the same. The change in personnel has brought Ricky Ponting’s men closer to the rest of the field and their tactics will have to alter accordingly.
If they are allowed to make big scores then the relative inexperience of their attack will be negated somewhat. If they don’t, then it won’t.
And in this regard, for Australia read England. A lack of runs will put pressure on an attack that is far from long in the tooth.
With the tactics and game plans of both sides showing little in the way of variation, small margins will decide who wins.
And the margins are so small that it really is too close to call.
Sitting on the fence it most certainly is, but get to the TAB and get on a series draw.
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Brett McKay said | July 10th 2009 @ 9:02am | Report comment
Alec, all very good points, and certainly the first two days point to a tightly fought series. I made the comment the other day that it would much closer to a 2-1 series than it would be to 5-0 – deliberately not naming a winner – and was told to enjoy my seat on the splinters, so I guess now at least I’ve got someone to talk to!!
Greg Russell said | July 10th 2009 @ 2:09pm | Report comment
Alec and Brett,
What do you guys know about the pitches for this series that I for one don’t? 4 more like this and we could well end up with a 0-0 series, because the play so far has confirmed suspicions that both bowling attacks are relatively weak. These two teams are going to need “result” pitches in order for there to be results. How many such pitches will there be, and which team will they favor?
At this stage it looks like the most potent bowler in either camp is Harmison, and he’s not even in the current England squad of 16!
When Phil Hughes was a serial century-scorer for Middlesex, I think all those matches actually ended in (batting) draws. And that was in May. And we all know that English pitches get better and better for batting as the summer goes on …
OK, I am doing a lot of extrapolation on the basis of two days. But Brett, you watch a lot of cricket and you play a lot of cricket. Put your emotions aside (i.e., your desires for Australia to do well) and tell me what you honestly thought after seeing the first few overs of day 1 …
onside said | July 10th 2009 @ 2:31pm | Report comment
It would be interesting to see a ‘decider’,something that gave the Ashes relevance, even in a drawn series.
In other words ,make it impossible to have a drawn series.Perhaps in the event of a draw , the first innings
leads count for something,or most runs,most wickets,anything.There must be a fair and resonable formula
to establish a result on countback after up to twenty five days of play.
Brett McKay said | July 10th 2009 @ 2:42pm | Report comment
Greg one “result” pitch would have been Old Trafford, which Warnie used to love becuase of its consistent spin. But from Cardiff we go to Lord’s, Edgbaston, Headingley, and then the traditional finish at The Oval. Headingley from memory is often a raging seamer, it seemed Dominic Cork used to make annual comebacks in the Headingley Test. The midlands in July-Aug is likely to be under water, so Edgbaston could be anything. Australia hasn’t lost at Lord’s since Bradman were a lad, and I’ve often heard The Oval likened to Adelaide.
2-1 still looks pretty good, but I still can’t pick a winner
As long as it’s a tight contest, I don’t really mind which way it goes. 5-0 was fantastic, but I don’t think anyone really expected that dominance then or especially now.
After the first hour on Wed night, I thought this is going to be great, the Ashes are staying here, but Pietersen and Collingwood’s partnership quickly snapped me out of my dream. Collingwood is such an under-rated yet determined player, he’s ideal at No.5 between the ego of Pietersen and the free-flowing Prior. Prior shut me up in a hurry too, and even Flintoff was starting to look ominous before Siddle got a bit lucky. After two days, it’s all pretty even still, and if I’m allowed to descend into cliche, “the first session will be key” when Day 3 starts…
Benjamin Conkey said | July 10th 2009 @ 3:13pm | Report comment
I thought the pitch looked easy. Then Flintoff came in and really made the ball take off against Hughes. It’s one of those pitches where you really have to put in as a fast bowler. As Spiro said on another article..The problem is the ball is getting soft early, and there’s not that severe reverse swing. Wickets are needed for England with the new ball, and they really need the ball to start turning. Surprisingly Swann hasn’t spun the ball as much as Hauritz.
If Australia get a 100 run lead..it could be like Amazing Adelaide again. But who is going to be the Shane Warne?
Brett McKay said | July 10th 2009 @ 3:23pm | Report comment
Conks it definitely did, it looked to be holding up a bit too, and by about Tea. Both England on Wed night and Ponting and Katich last night accelerated in the last session, and the slowing deck and softer ball would be playing as much part in this as do tiring bowlers. Even the Barmy Army sounded like they were struggling in the last session: their standard “Andrew Strauss’ – BARMY ARMY” (repeat, often) would start strong, but after a minute or so it would be reduced to three blokes with ever decreasing voices….
Benjamin Conkey said | July 10th 2009 @ 3:32pm | Report comment
Brett, just had a look at the weather forecast..Rain for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. This weather predictor shows how heavy the rain might be on Saturday…http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/4..Hopefully the forecaster get it wrong..because it looks like a tsunami tomorrow night.
As for the Barmy Army. There was a fantastic moment, when the fanatics started singing Waltzing Matilda, which was drowned out by the Barmy Army’s unique rendition ‘I Shagged Matilda.’ SkySports then showed John Howard who had a smirk on his face. I love the Ashes!
Brett McKay said | July 10th 2009 @ 3:41pm | Report comment
thanks for that Conks, looks like cats and dogs stuff tomorrow night – wonder if there’s a setting on the new telly that will wake me up if play resumes?!? Makes the need to bat all day tonight even more crucial…