I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t a regular next year, assuming he builds his body up during the pre-season. Melbourne has the least experienced list in the competition and they’ll really need Jack Watts to step up if they want to be a even a snowball’s chance in hell of playing finals in the near future. Once the kid is ready physically, it’s simple: he’ll play every week.

For guys like Leigh Matthews, who reckon that Watts has shown nothing to suggest why he was the first name read out at the draft: the guy was the #1 pick for a good reason. Matt Rendell (head of recruitment at the Crows) claimed he was the only player he’d have picked ahead of Phil Davis. Why would he have passed on Rich, Ziebell, Hartlett, Hill etc? Because Rendell knew this year’s draft would be light on KPP – that’s why the Crows took 4 talls with their 5 picks. The gun midfielders will be available again but there isn’t another Jack Watts out there.

Jack is the first Key Forward taken at #1 since Nick Riewoldt in 2000, and his numbers at junior level – graded as elite in a number of categories by Champion Data, including score assists and contested marks – show that he has the potential to be as good as the Voldt. In fact, he is probably more versatile than Nick, as at junior level he was considered an elite ball-winner for his height and he played in the midfield and across half-back for Sandringham in the TAC Cup. (And yes, I did flog all of that from the AFL Prospectus. Never leave home without it.)

The Dees wanted a talented key forward prospect and they’ve got one, it’s just up to them to get him adjusted to life at an AFL club and in my opinion that will come through playing regular footy more than anything else. Riewoldt didn’t set the world on fire in his first year either, playing six games and kicking 2.2 – though in his second year he established himself in the Saints 22 and started to show his brilliance, so let’s reserve judgement on Watts’ worthiness as a #1 pick until next season.

There are no players over 30 on Freo’s list. 19 players on the senior list had played 27 AFL games or less at the start of the season. Fremantle ranked equal 12th with Essendon, ahead of only Nth Melb, Brisbane and Melbourne, for average games played at the beginning of 09. In 08, they were ranked 2nd for average games played! In a year, Freo’s games per player average went from 84.8 to 58.4! Bit of a drop there!

Another factor may be Fremantle’s woes with their draft picks in previous seasons. e.g. from Freo’s 2006 draft and rookie draft only Brock O’Brien and Andrew Foster remain on the list, combining for just 10 games in 3 seasons. And while they didn’t pick until #31 in the national draft, they passed up on players like Kurt Tippett (taken by the Crows with the following pick!), Alwyn Davey, Nathan Krakouer, Brad Dick, Kyle Reimers, David Mackay, Tyson Goldsack, so it is not as if the talent wasn’t there when their first pick came around.

It seems teams now wish to get their youngsters playing AFL footy as soon as possible (or as soon as their body is vaguely ready) in order to learn the system they want them to play. All of the guys I mentioned above are already regulars for their teams, so I think perhaps there is something to be said for throwing players into the deep end. And it’s not as if Freo’s youngsters aren’t contributing.

Rookies are hit-and-miss, but the best way to find out whether they’re any good or not is to expose them to AFL footy and see how they perform.

Prior to the introduction of the U18s, each VFL club had U19s and reserves teams, and only a handful of U19s ever graduated all the way to the senior team (to become permanent fixtures).

The fact is that once you move beyond the very best of the best young players, it’s almost impossible to know how they will respond to being immersed in a professional senior team until it actually happens.

For some, it clicks only 2nd or 3rd time around – many just drop off the face of the Earth.

I suspect that’s the same for every football code.

I read a story about a wonderful West Ham Youth team that won their FA cup 6-0. The team included Joe Cole, and as it happens, two Australians, Ferrante and Garcia. Joe Cole went on to be a star (and it was obvious that he was destined for stardom), the bulk of players ended up a bit like Ferrante, some even worse, some just dropped out of the game completely.

That’s the football game.

Simply because, pure talent only gets you so far. It then comes to burning desire, luck, unforeseen development or lack of development (both physical, skill based, fitness etc).

The reality is that the rookies lists have been a very good pathway, and perhaps especially because these are generally the kids that got missed in the draft, and may get one or two years rookie listed, and if they get a chance for a game – it’s a narrow window of opportunity (whilst someone else is on the long term injury list).

There is currently a major focus on given the kids a go, having a look in the company of adults.

This is the key here. With too great a focus on talent via the TAC and under 18 pathways – especially in Victoria. The limitation is that it’s quite one thing to play against age group peers – it’s entirely another to play against adults. Some of the walk up start young draftees out of Adelaide and Perth who have played in the SANFL and WAFL have stepped straight into the AFL. Daniel Rich is an obvious example.

North Melbournes rookies include 21 yr old Liam Anthony from WA, so considered a ‘mature age’. Nathan Grima came from SA, and along with a knee reco, debuted this year age 23 and has stepped straight into footy and down a great job down back.

Ben Warren, aged 20 and a tad, debuted this year after being around the club for several years after coming from QLD.

These guys have all debuted and been very good players right from the start. And certainly are not 17-18 yr olds being thrown to the wolves just to see who survives.