2009 Tri Nations preview: Wallabies
Roar Pro
By James Mortimer, 12 Jul 2009 James Mortimer is a Roar Pro
- Tagged:
- robbie deans, Rubgy Union, Tri Nations, wallabies, Wayne Smith
If one was to believe the talk coming from sections of the local media and former Australian test players, then we are witnessing the birth of a new golden age for the Wallabies.
Certainly, on the evidence of their opening home tests against the Barbarians, Italians and French, they are arguably the most impressive looking side in the world as it stands.
After all, their arch nemesis, the All Blacks, are effectively limping into the Tri Nations competition. They have been without the services of so many of their pillars, and even those who are returning, have played precious little top level rugby in recent months.
The Springboks, while basking in the celebrated glory of winning a Lions tour, did not endear themselves to the rugby neutrals by dominating the fabled tourists. If anything, they may view the Tri Nations as a distinctly secondary task to that of which they have just accomplished, and may not be hungry coming into the Southern Hemisphere’s showpiece championship.
But hunger is something that this convalescing Australian team looks to have in spades.
Robbie Deans is a truly brilliant rugby coach, whose record as the overlord of the Crusaders was unrivalled by any other in the global rugby ranks.
A man who can put no foot wrong, he is making all the right noises in the Australian rugby fraternity, but even more importantly, is getting the best out of his players.
The straight talking former Christ’s College boarders pure rugby views are vastly different to the almost autocratic or hands off approach of former Australian test coaches, and to say that this generation of Wallaby players are reacting positively would be a dramatic understatement.
In 2009 under Deans, who did not have to concern himself with Super rugby coaching unlike last year, the Wallabies have looked methodical and well organised.
It is like he is moulding the Australian test team in the cast of the famed Crusaders champions of the past.
But to avoid a cliché, the real judgment is about to be passed, not only on the Wallabies, but on Deans himself.
After all, for all of his success as the Crusaders coach, he does have his blemishes as an elite coach.
In 2001, a year after taking over from Wayne Smith; who had just completed a hat-trick of titles with the Crusaders, and the same year he devoted his attention to solely coaching the red and blacks (having coached Canterbury in 2000 along with the Crusaders) his decorated team came 10th in the competition, their second worst year in Super rugby history.
He was also John Mitchell’s assistant with the All Blacks, from 2001 to 2003, a reign that had a huge amount of success, but fell at the biggest hurdle, losing ironically to the Wallabies in the semi final at the 2003 World Cup.
While no doubt part of Dean’s current magic with the Wallabies is ingraining them with a huge amount of self belief, four early season test wins does not make a great rugby team.
On the final pessimistic note, let us not forget the Deans lost three times to the All Blacks last year, oversaw the Wallabies worst ever test loss, lost to Wales for only the second time since 1987, and only narrowly defeated Italy, the 12th ranked test nation in the world.
There is though now an unwaveringness in this test side, but most importantly, and unlike their Tri Nations opponents, no discernable weaknesses.
With Captain Stirling Mortlock, George Smith and Matt Giteau, they have three of the best players in world rugby. The outgoing Western Force and incoming Brumbies playmaker is currently the finest number ten on the global stage.
Adding to this is much contravention to traditional Australian faults, with the Wallabies possessive of as much depth as we have ever seen, and with their forward stocks burgeoning, there is certainly much to like about this team.
But they haven’t done anything yet, and that is why they probably approach the Tri Nations with expectations even beyond that of their illustrious opponents.
Between them, the All Blacks and the Springboks hold all the titles.
New Zealand, current champions, could almost be expected to concede a tournament title that they have virtually owned. After all, they are rebuilding more than any other test nation, and have numerous injuries. But some curious optimists in New Zealand may even welcome the All Blacks having a less than spectacular 2009, thinking better now than in 2011?
And South Africa has just earned another title with a four year battery life. Irrespective of what they achieve between now and 2011/2013, they are the World Champions and current Lions series winners.
The Wallabies must have a goal of winning at least one of the Tri Nations or Bledisloe Cups.
Otherwise, their apparent progress will be nothing more than a mirage.
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Sam Taulelei said | July 13th 2009 @ 12:55am | Report comment
I believe the three week hiatus from Australia’s last international to the opening Bledisloe/Tri Nations match may be a week too long for them. They had built momentum, combinations and confidence during their June series and if this match was played last week I would have unhesitatingly backed them to beat the All Blacks for the first time at Eden Park since 1986. What difference does a week make? Plenty in this case. The extra weeks rest has stalled their momentum, the Tuqiri decision is an unwelcome distraction despite statements to the contrary from officials and senior players and returning All Blacks from injury have had another week to play and regain fitness and form. Australia has a definite advantage in Matt Giteau but the matchups everywhere else cancel each other out. NZ is the team under the blowtorch and Australia are again the favoured side. Last time this happened was in the return Bledisloe last year at the same venue. Carter won’t be playing for NZ this time and in tandem with McCaw they delivered the 1,2 knockout punch. Can Giteau and Smith deliver the knockout blows this time? I don’t believe they will.
Knives Out said | July 13th 2009 @ 2:35am | Report comment
I’m not sure how I feel about Australia. The brand of rugby has been quite conservative under Deans and a lot of their wins have been quite close games, so I’m not sure if this reflects a purposeful pragmatism and the Wallabies are learning to win close games, or quite simply they aren’t a good side and will soon come unstuck. With regard to SA and NZ, I believe that NZ are more transitional than during the last 3N and that SA are like the Wallabies might be – one dimensional. However, I’m going with my gut instinct and have backed Australia at the bookmakers to win the 3N.
ohtani's jacket, said | July 13th 2009 @ 9:42am | Report comment
I also think the Wallabies have been hurt by the three week lay-off.
The fact is that the Wallabies never really had momentum heading into this Test. The All Blacks simply looked vulnerable because of injuries and a poor playing style. The Wallabies won their June Tests like they always do and got pass marks for barely adequate performances. I don’t see how they look more formidable than the Springboks. The Lions were a better side than the Barbarians, Italians or French.
The challenge for the Wallabies will be the same as every year — winning away from home. The Eden Park Test is on more of an even keel now and I think the Wallabies are further off than people say.
bennalong said | July 13th 2009 @ 10:57am | Report comment
Sam,
You summed the situation up well, except for some reason the “extra week off” is enough to counter your perception that ‘Australia has a definite advantage with Matt Giteau.’
There is also the factor that the Blacks have not looked comfortable on the field in three outings showing little cohesion and even less confidence.
Richie McCaw will go some way to counter this and how fit he is will certainly be another unfolding key.
But Australia’s inside backs have been working well together and this area is a huge problem for NZ.
I expected the Blacks to defeat France and in former years to smash Italy to demonstrate that Australia’s wins were pedestrian.
They didn’t. They couldn’t.
And then there’s NZ supercoach, R Deans.
He has the Wallabies looking confident and fit. Will the homeground advantage be the leveller?
Sam Taulelei said | July 13th 2009 @ 1:55pm | Report comment
Bennalong
One point of reference I was thinking about when I wrote the three week layoff may hurt Australia’s chances was 2005. That year the All Blacks swept the Lions and Dan Carter was heralded as the best player in his position as well as in the world. They approached the opening Tri Nations test against SA at Newlands with great confidence and expectation. However there was a four week layoff between the Lions series and the Tri Nations. The All Blacks didnt’ appreciate the greater intensity the Boks would play at, especially at home. Despite having Carter, McCaw and Umaga in the ranks and many scoring chances NZ got rolled. So yes in spite of the advantage Australia has in Giteau, that may not be enough to overcome home advantage and a three week layoff. For me, this game will be decided in the tight five and not the loose forwards or first five.
Giteau, Smith and Mortlock were less effective in the return Bledisloe last year as the forwards were outplayed in all phases. I don’t think NZ will enjoy the same advantage this time and it will be a much closer game.
Mike said | July 13th 2009 @ 4:39pm | Report comment
If this is to be one of the truly great Wallabies sides, then an extra week off should not make any difference to them.
Nice of you Kiwis to offer us that excuse, but I don’t think we are entitled to it: If we are good enough then we will win the 3N, and that will be pretty damn difficult if we don’t win the first one; if we aren’t good enough, then there are no excuses.
I am happy to join in the predictions (on a hiding to nothing because we will all find out the truth shortly): I think the Australian pack has improved markedly and this will result in a much better Australian performance this 3N. Now watch them prove me wrong …
taylor bridge said | July 13th 2009 @ 10:27pm | Report comment
lets hope Stephen Moore , stays uninjured unless the selectors can unearth some new talent. That role of accurate line out thrower appears to be the only key role where we have no competent replacement. It is amazing with all the imploding Basketball franchises that the brains trust cant second a skills coach to teach a skill that is seemingly given little weighting.
Greg Russell said | July 14th 2009 @ 3:23pm | Report comment
In Giteau and Barnes, the Wallabies have the best two playmakers in all three countries. Who else even comes reasonably close to them as playmakers in currently available New Zealand and South African ranks? (Let me stress here the words ‘currently available’ and ‘playmakers’. For example, Carter is not available, and while I consider players like Nonu and Morne Steyn to have some exceptional strengths, playmaking is not amongst them.)
This and Stephen Moore’s lineout throwing are really Australia’s only points of superiority. Yes, George Smith is an exceptional player, but there are also exceptional back-rowers in the South African and New Zealand teams, so one cannot reliably say that Smith will be a point of superiority.
So as far as Australia’s chances are concerned, it all comes down to being able to force the outcome to be determined by the brains and skills of Giteau and Barnes. In 2 months we will know the answer.