NRL home town bias is increasing in 2009

Roar Pro

By PuntPal, 21 Jul 2009 The Crowd is a Roar Pro

Tagged:: home team advantage, NRL, penalties, referees, Rugby League

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When people complain about dodgy video referee decisions in the NRL they often have a right to be angry – the inconsistency of the video referees is simply infuriating. But the real source of injustice in the NRL stems from the bias policing of the ruck and the inability of the referees to fairly assess when a player has been held down too long.

The basic approach taken by the referees is to give the home team a lot of leeway, whilst making sure the away team doesn’t get away with a thing.

The same approach applies to policing the offside rule and the grapple tackle rule. The home town bias is nothing new, but I believe it is clearly getting worse…and the statistics for 2009 support this theory (see below).

Let us focus on the policing of the ruck.

There is often over 500 tackles made in an average NRL game and in each of those tackles, the referee is asked to decide when defenders have breached the rules by holding the tackled player down too long.

When it comes to awarding penalties for holding down too long, the referee is asked to use their discretion and this requires the referee to distinguish between tackles based on split second differences.

So for example, tackler 234 may hold the ball carrier down for 2.34 seconds, whereas tackler 278 held the player down for 2.35 seconds…and somehow the referee will award a penalty against tackler 278, even though the difference is so slight that it is impossible to claim the referee has properly distinguished these tackles (remember these are the same referees that often miss blatant forward passes or offsides – so excuse me for not believing the referees possess 20/20 vision and have in-built stop watches connected to their brains).

The simple point is this – the referees want to avoid media controversy, and to do this they allow the home team to get away with blue murder in the ruck.

This means the away team stands little chance of getting a roll on and consequently, they will often lose the game. When the home team dominates and win, most people at the ground leave happy and the game goes by without too much being said in the media.

When a game is close however, the referees realise that one bad call in the dying minutes could lead to them being scrutinised by the media. So obviously the best result for the referee is for the home team to win convincingly and avoid the chance of being asked to make a crucial decision at the end of the match.

Well a quick analysis of the figures (below) shows that away teams are finding it increasingly difficult to win in 2009.

Now the reasons for this trend could be numerous and I note that the statistical sample is not massive – but I stand by the above statement about the policing of the ruck.

Further, I believe it is quickly leading to fans becoming disillusioned with the NRL and something that should be exposed.

From round 1 to round 13:
- 50 home teams won
- 39 away teams won.
- 2 draws.

So out of the 91 games played between round 1 and round 13, the away teams won just under 43% of the games played.

From round 14 to round 19:
- 23 home teams won
- 11 away teams won
- 0 draws

So out of the 34 games played between round 14 and round 19 (excluding Eels v Storm) the away teams have won just over 32% of the games played.

This is something for us fans to keep an eye for the remainder of the 2009 season. I will update this article after round 26 to see whether there is a continuing trend here.

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The Crowd Says (13) | Page 1 of Comments

Tom Alexander. said | July 21st 2009 @ 11:07am | Report comment

Gordan Tallis made that exact argument the other night on fox sports, before he was interrupted by his brain dead co-commentator who tried to change the subject.

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Skull said | July 21st 2009 @ 1:19pm | Report comment

May be the home teams play better in front of their home fans? Apparently R Stuart was rather unhappy about the ref the other day and they were at home.

Also the referree made a crucial decision at the end of the Titans Eagles match whcih caused quite a media stir if I remember correctly.

I think most people would agree that the home team gets a leg up from the ref. I looked at this last year and found there was only about a 1 penalty per game difference between home and away.

but you would have to take into account who was playing who in these last few games. For instance if top teams are playing bottom teams, or how many players were out due to SOO etc. before I would make anything of the stats you have quoted

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PuntPal said | July 21st 2009 @ 2:19pm | Report comment

Skull – while I agree with nearly everything you said, I dont think penalty counts can be relied upon to determine whether team has been given a fair go.

This is because dont underestimate the cunningness of the Refs. They know people like us look at penalty counts to see whether teams have been ripped off. So they can manipulate the stats by:
- giving penalties to the away team that dont provide an advantage (1st tackle penalties, penalties on the sideline etc… they do this all the time!)
- giving penalties late in the game when the result has been decided (they always do this, even it up before full time with some consolation penalties)

But more importantly, even penalty counts doesnt = a fair game. If the home team is pushing the envelope all and getting away with all kinds of rubbish in the ruck, then the penalty count should be heavily in favour of the away team. Penrith v Raiders last weekend has a classic example. The penalty count favoured the Raiders (3 more penalties) but Furner was furious at the Refs due to their policing of the ruck. This was because the Raiders deserved far more peanlties then it recieved. So we cant just look at the penalties that are awarded, we must look at the penalties that should have awarded

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Mick from Giralang said | July 21st 2009 @ 3:28pm | Report comment

Excellent article, airing many of my own concerns about the refereeing. It’s no co-incidence that the best crowd average for NRL in recent years was in 2005, when referees enforced quick play the balls and attacking sides like the Cowboys and Tigers could do their stuff. One of the major problems continues to be referees trying to define the quality of the tackle ie “dominant” or, even more infuriatingly, ” “surrender” and then having to determine the appropriate amount of time the ball carrier can be held down. This introduces too much of a grey area into the ruck and is nearly impossible for mere mortals to enforce consistently.It would be a much better policy for referees to simply order tacklers off the ball player as quickly as practicable. I hear the arguments from some that this does not “reward” dominant tackles. But a truly dominant tackle inhibits the play-the-ball of its own accord and needs no intervention by the referee. And at the end of the day I’m sure most of us go to the game or view to see free flowing football with plenty of tries. Let’s keep it simple, ensure a fast play the ball, and watch the game become an even more entertaining spectacle.

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Mushi said | July 21st 2009 @ 5:00pm | Report comment

Punt pal that’s ridiculous you’re suggesting the Referees rig the game? Intentionally evening tackle counts through meaningless penalties to the away team? I guess you don’t believe man landed on the moon or that bin Laden had anything to do with September 11?

You’re asking us to throw out the stat which deals specifically with the issue (penalties) because there is the chance a single result might be skewed but look at one which has so much more noise ie attributing wins and losses to refereeing but ruling out travel, familiarity, crowd encouragement or climate.

Over the sample of 136 games that we have this year it would be reasonable to assume that if there was a meaningful difference in treatment it would show through in the penalty counts (unless we support your theory the whole competition is rigged and they’ve already engraved the name on the cup)

I don’t see a whopping 0.74 penalties extra per game showing that much impact.

Interestingly three of the teams with the biggest home/away difference St George, Gold Coast and New Castle get more penalties in front of an away crowd than they do at home. Hmm perhaps because penalty counts have very little correlation with a team winning more games.

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The Answer said | July 21st 2009 @ 5:16pm | Report comment

Another pretty average punter bemoaning a conspriacy theory about referees to cover up for their own failings.

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Pippinu said | July 21st 2009 @ 5:29pm | Report comment

In the first 13 rounds of the season, away teams won 44 % of the games actually won (ignoring the draws) – personally, I wouldn’t have thought that that was a particularly low percentage.

Off the top of my head, I would see a 55/45 split of home and away wins as pretty much normal (in fact, a 60/40 spolit wouldn’t surprise me).

Throw in the fact that Sydney teams are travelling to Townsville, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Canberrra and Melbourne (and vice versa), and that some of these teams have excellent home records, well, to be honest, I’m not sure the stats show all that much at all.

Now – if we’re arguing that refs are blind as bats, are on the take, are cheats, always call against your own team, etc – well, it’s hard to dispute that!!

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PuntPal said | July 22nd 2009 @ 1:30am | Report comment

Mick from Girralang – you have taken the words out of my mouth. Quick play the balls is the way to fix the game. There is no doubt that 2005 was the best year of football, because the play the ball was not a big issue…it was about skill and power, not grubby wrestling tactics. Most importantly, it largely took the refs impact out of the game (which is a good thing in my opinion).

Mushi – your post has so many things wrong I dont know where to start:

- I never said Refs rigged the game, I said they naturally favour the home team..rigging implies some form of corruption and is a loaded term that you use to try and make out that my argument is more extreme than it is.

- I never ruled out other factors for away teams losing, I clearly said in my article that there could be other explanations for this. However familiarity and crowd support??? what a load of rubbish, these guys are professionals. If anything being boo’d will fire you up. Travel and climate are only a factor at a few grounds, most importantly games played in Townsville and Canberra (the two climate extremes, but even then these are not massive factors because of the preparation that goes into these games).

- You use the exact point skull made, that because penalty counts are even then my theory is wrong…did you even read my response to skull before making the same weak argument…its not just the penalty counts that matter, its the penalties not given that matter most. Home teams know they get away with blue murder, so they push the refs patience – therefore, just because the penalty count is even, doesnt mean the away team got all the penalties they deserved….what dont you understand about that theory? I cant make it any more simple

The same issue applies to your final point – you say penalty counts have little correlation with who wins (maybe you are right) but my point is that its the penalties that are not awared that make the difference.

The Answer – hahahahahahaha!!! nice one buddy, ask my bookies if they think I have been ‘average’ over the last 3 years. I am not bemoaning this from a punters perspective, I am a massive league fan that believes (like Mick from Girralang) the game is not as good as it could be due to the way the ruck is policed. p.s. why dont you put up your win/loss record for everyone to see??

Pippinu, if you read the article title it reads ‘Home town bias is increasing in 2009′ – increasing being the key word here. So my stats showed that for round 1 to round 13, 44% of away teams were winning – I agree with you that this is the kind of figure you would expect. But the key stat was that since then (from round 14 to round 19) only 33% of away teams have won…this means only 1 in 3 away teams are winning. To me, that is not enough to be explained away by the factors raised by Mushi above, therefore the most likely reason for me is the Refs biased policing of the ruck

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Richard Brockhurst said | July 22nd 2009 @ 11:53am | Report comment

A lot of games are won off penalties in crucial parts of the game, and there has been very little if anything in the offence. Perhaps some referees don’t like certain teams or players and wait for an opportunity for pay back. I don’t believe all referees are neutral.

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PuntPal said | July 22nd 2009 @ 2:11pm | Report comment

Agree Richard – 4th tackle penalties to home teams is a Refs favourite trick (they love to hear the applause of the appreciative crowd). If there is one thing I have learnt over the years, its to never underestimate the human desire for acceptance…unfortunately referees are only human and they too desire an applause here and there.

I also think the stars like Thurston, Steve Price and Cameron Smith get away with falling asleep on the tackled ball carrier, whereas a new rookie will be an easy target for a Ref.

The players that seem to get singled out for penalties are players like Mark Minichello (although he brings this on himself sometimes) and Justin Poore (he has improved under the guidance of Bennett).

Like you said Richard, referees are not neutral and once we recognise this and analyses their performance more closely, we see the significant impact a Ref can have on the outcome of a game. I believe the Refs are mose important in the NRL than in any other team sport in the world that I know of…one reason: they have too much discretion and not enough accountability!!

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