Tri Nations predictions favour New Zealand

Roar Pro

By trophymaster, 21 Jul 2009 The Crowd is a Roar Pro

Tagged:: All Blacks, Boks, Rugby Union, Springboks, Tri Nations, wallabies

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Although the Tri Nations opener wasn’t great rugby and was about as entertaining as watching the Black Caps battling it out with Bangladesh on the 5th day of a Test, most rugby fans still agree that the All Blacks still hold all the aces.

In fact, the All Blacks are so focused on the final of the Tri Nations that they’ve hedged their bets by setting up an early training camp at Loftus Versfeld (a possible finals venue) rather than go directly to Bloemfontein.

Victory for the tourists in Bloemfontein is a relatively easy task in comparison to what the statistics show for oppositions attempting the same on New Zealand’s soil.

Ask any British & Irish Lions or Six Nations player where they’d fancy their chances best and nine out of ten would pick Bloemfontein over Kiwi fortresses like ‘The House of Pain’.

Where winning on the road means a likely finals berth, the All Blacks know they’ve got their backs covered and just need to sneak one over the Boks in South Africa, which is a happy enough ‘hunting ground’ for tourists.

Two games in South Africa (Bloemfontein and Durban), fresh out of the starting blocks, hugely favours Graham Henry’s men over a schedule which puts South Africa through four weeks of Australasia with back-to-back Tests in Perth, Brisbane, Hamilton and Wellington.

History also favours the All Blacks, as wins in Hamilton and Wellington aren’t a gimme. (With or without the softening up provided by Australia.)

There is little chance that New Zealand won’t make the Tri Nations final and it’s interesting to note that they’ll have advanced preparation at the likely grounds where such a final could be hosted this year (Sydney, Auckland, Pretoria). They are the only team with such a luxury.

The World Champions, South Africa, are going to probably misfire at either Bloemfontein or Durban and their rebound is going to cost Australia a final’s berth.

New Zealand will march through to the final and it’ll take a near miracle for South Africa to pick up a victory in Hamilton or Wellington.

The final, at either Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria or at ‘The House of Pain’ in New Zealand will see the All Blacks hoist their 10th Tri Nations trophy. Proof that proper preparation and planning precipitate perfect performance.

South Africa still are the better team with the best chance of taking the World Cup in 2011 because of their wide exposure to grounds around New Zealand. No pain, no gain ?

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The Crowd Says (29) | Page 1 of Comments

Dean Pantio said | July 21st 2009 @ 12:53pm | Report comment

I expected the Wallabies to win last weekend and the All Blacks to fight tooth and nail to secure a draw to retain the Bledisloe. I don’t see them winning in the Republic – I’m not impressed with their win last weekend and South Africa have looked very good in the Lions tour and (at least for the Bulls) in winning the S14.

South Africa may win an away game and this will be the difference. Australia has the best schedule, but following the effort I saw on Saturday night, I’m convinced, despite what the players say, there is a soft underbelly and creeping doubt about their ability to win tough games.

The Wallabies of 1999-2003 would’ve won that Test at Eden Park, no doubt in my mind.

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ohtani's jacket, said | July 21st 2009 @ 1:13pm | Report comment

The Wallabies of 1999-2003 never won a Test at Eden Park.

The All Blacks will likely split the Tests in South Africa, which will probably give them one hand on the Tri-Nations title. A little underserved, but if the Walabies or Springboks can’t beat the All Blacks when they’re playing conservative rugby then their packs aren’t good enough. In fact, there’s a small chance that NZ might win both Tests.

The All Blacks like to win in style and prior to the past couple of seasons if you disrupted that you stood a good chance of beating them. Now that they’re no longer capable of playing with style, they’re learning to win ugly, which makes them just as difficult to beat. The only way to counter this, IMO, is to beat them with style.

Whoever beats the All Blacks first in this year’s Tri-Nations will do it by playing expansive rugby. That’s my prediction. I think if you watched the Eden Park Test, you’ll have noticed that there were numerous times when the All Blacks were outflanked and short on the blindside. A guy like du Preez could make them pay for that.

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Justin said | July 21st 2009 @ 1:19pm | Report comment

The current Ashes series should tell you nothing is likely in sport OJ

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Hemjay said | July 21st 2009 @ 1:22pm | Report comment

So Dean if your not impressed with the All Blacks you must be beside your self with despair considering the Wallabies performance then.
I’m not sure if you realise there was nearly 10 changes to the ABs starting lineup from the team that last played Italy to the team that played Australia.

The All Blacks were very rusty as they should be after all its really only their first hit out as a team this year. Whereas the Wallabies have been playing as a unit right through the June tests and they still failed to capitalize on this. The draw could work for them but it could also work against them greatly. After playing the ABs in Sydney they will have two tough matches against the Boks of which one is in Perth which is just an extension of South Africa as is Albany in Auckland. I’m not convinced the Wallabies have the mental toughness if the did they would’ve won at Eden Park actually it’s about time they stopped believing in old wifes tales and hoodoos and actually played the game committed more to the breakdown and actually passed the ball to their teammates instead of seeking the glory.

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Dean Pantio said | July 21st 2009 @ 1:30pm | Report comment

I stand by what I said: The Wallabies of 1999-2003 would’ve won that Test at Eden Park, no doubt in my mind. Simply because they had a self belief they could win against the All Blacks and seldom lost tests they should have won. That’s the difference between the two Wallabies teams.

A team that wins this years Tri Nations will be the one that plays an all round style. The ability to win territory through a better kicking game, regain possession through better defence and counter rucking and then translating that pressure into points by playing tight and dragging in defenders until the opportunity exists to outnumber and isolate defenders. IMHO, the team best placed to play that complete game is South Africa.

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True Tah said | July 21st 2009 @ 1:38pm | Report comment

Springboks to win both tests in South Africa against NZ, and will win one of the test matches pretty convincingly. I think they have got the talent to win the Trophy this year.

As OJ points out, du Preez is probably one of the best players currently at exploiting any overlaps, and is without doubt the best scrum half in the world.

The effect will be similar to what happened last year, after the Wallabies got hammered by the Boks in JHB, they were unable to win the Brisbane test match. The All Blacks will lose the Sydney test match…having said that, Im not sure if we can win in Wellington, it will take something special to win that game.

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Hammer said | July 21st 2009 @ 2:01pm | Report comment

If the boks have a sniff of the title after the 2 NZ games over the next fortnight I can see the Wallabies finishing last in this years tri-nations … they’re not there at all – they’ve been over-hyped over the June test series and are not well balanced many of the players are over-rated and Deans isn’t hitting the right notes … if that does happen then the end of year tour will be a pressure cooker … if he fails to waltz through with a grand slam (which won’t be as easy as some think) then will the drums start beating for a change …

The Wallabies only hope is that the AB’s pick up one or both games in SA then the boks will fold as per normal on their away leg …

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ohtani's jacket, said | July 21st 2009 @ 2:07pm | Report comment

We heard all about this in 2007 and the Springboks didn’t do it. We heard about it again last year and the Springboks didn’t do. Third time’s the charm?

The All Blacks are beatable, but the Springboks have to actually go out there and do it. The last time we played in South Africa, the Boks scored zero points.

The reason that everyone wants the underdog tag in the Tri-Nations of late is that the favourites tag doesn’t funny things to your head. This is a strange All Blacks team to me since they’re very much a “second half” team and don’t really show up until the reserves come on, and I think it all goes back to the Cardiff quarterfinal, which was a nightmare second half and has greatly influenced the way the All Blacks approach a Test match.

The Boks on the other hand love to start strong, but we saw in the Lions series that they still have a habit of fading over the course of a game. I expect the All Blacks to be shit in the first 40 next Saturday and maybe finish on top. Every game we play this year is 50-50. Henry’s coaching is always at its worst in South Africa and this dates back to his Super 14 days, but if we win it’ll once again be because of Crusaders forwards.

The All Blacks don’t really come up in the same sort of defensive pattern that other sides too. They like to drift a little and leave numbers for cover defence. I think that’s why Australia looked like they were gaining more ground than the All Black backs who were (once again) met head on by rush defence. Du Preez is my main worry, because he can switch the angle of the attack by passing flat from both sides. But they’re really going to need to attack and nullify, to quote Henry (I think.)

Love that phrase — attack and nullify. I have a feeling they’ll try to single out Donald. Let’s see if they do a better job of it than the Wallabies.

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Greg Russell said | July 21st 2009 @ 2:23pm | Report comment

Mate, ha-ha with the April Fool’s Day prank in the middle of July … there never has been a Trinations “final”, and not according to any official website I have seen is there one scheduled for this year.

So what’s the point of this article? To see whether anyone noticed that it was about a phantom?

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Rusty said | July 21st 2009 @ 3:25pm | Report comment

noticed the “final” remark and thought this was in referral to the point in the tri nations it could be won but then the stadia dont matchup to the official venues.. outside of the article some of the comments are interesting reads in themselves

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