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With the double signings of both Berrick Barnes and Drew Mitchell by the Waratahs, it has become obvious that the Australian Super 14 hopes will be a two horse race in 2010.
More to the point, both the Queensland Reds and Western Force will struggle to compete let alone finish in the top half of the table.
Both teams have not done this in recent Super rugby history.
The Force did finish seventh in their second year, but placed one position worse this year and will not have the services of key players next year, most notably Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell.
Fortuitously for the three year-old team, they still are able to recruit shrewdly, employing a strategy based on the fact that they are still a rugby State in genesis, banking on the reputation of John Mitchell as a back to basics rugby coach – who is still highly regarded despite this year’s controversies – and pulling over players who are “stuck behind” other front line players in other teams.
Headlined by former Springbok Andre Pretorius, the Force has also signed Brett Sheehan, Nic Henderson, Pek Cowan, Tim Fairbrother, Matt Dunning and Sam Harris.
While all are solid signings, these men are not championship winning additions.
The Queensland Reds, however, a foundation Australian rugby state, are in complete disarray.
They have finished no higher than twelfth in the last three years, and haven’t finished better than eighth since 2003. It is a damning statistic for a team whose history books reflect victories over the All Blacks and British and Irish Lions, and who threatened the Super rugby title in the late nineties.
In the long term, for a rugby nation about to host a fifth team, whether it is actually a local side or a “lodged team” from another country, this could present problems: for the ARU, the already tenuous SANZAR alliance, and the market value of the Super rugby broadcasting deals.
If the fifth team is comprised of local players, how will it be manned considering the gross inbalance of the current Australian rugby stocks?
The Brumbies next year will field eleven Wallabies, most of them first choice. Key amongst their new signings is Rocky Elsom and Matt Giteau.
This allows the two time champions to make a concerted assault on the 2010 title.
With Elsom, Giteau, Stirling Mortlock and George Smith, the Canberra based franchise wields a minimum of four players who could be counted as inclusions into a possible World XV.
For the Waratahs, their position is even more impressive, able in theory to roll out an entire starting team of internationally capped players.
Eleven of their squad featured in the Wallabies last match 22 against the All Blacks at Eden Park, and despite losing both Lote Tuqiri and Timana Tahu, they will look to hoist a maiden Super rugby title.
The strength of these two teams is a reflection of precious little control over Australian playing stocks and movement.
Some detractors will be quick to point out that there is lack of balance in both South Africa’s and New Zealand’s Super rugby squads, but this is not based on the players making decisions to move teams or States.
In South Africa, while the Cheetahs and Lions certainly struggle for success, the Sharks, Bulls and Stormers are legitimate title contenders (despite the Western Province side’s poor season this year – they came fifth in 2008).
The three blue chip South African sides are strongly based on their domestic union allocations, not due to an unfair player trading schedule.
The Stormers draw primarily from Western Province, winners of the most Currie Cup titles (32); the Bulls draw from the Blue Bulls, winners of the second most (22); while the Sharks draw from Natal – the current Currie Cup champions.
In New Zealand, it is similar, with the strength of their teams reflective of the depth of their geographical catchment areas and the sides drawing from the 26 New Zealand domestic unions.
The Highlanders and Blues draw from three, whereas the Hurricanes draw from nine local unions.
All five New Zealand Super rugby franchises can lay some claim to success throughout the thirteen year history of the tournament.
Furthermore, the NZRU has a draft system that allows the teams to protect 24 players, but those outside that safeguard are able to be traded fairly – by and large – to other “super provinces”.
But despite ambitious bids for the 15th Super rugby team from New Zealand and South Africa, this is a moot point.
Australia will host the new side.
But with their domestic house not in order, the likely continued hegemony in the local landscape by the Brumbies and Waratahs will need to be addressed soon.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.