Hunt defection won’t have a lasting effect
By Pippinu, 31 Jul 2009 Pippinu is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- AC Milan, AFL, Australian Football, Jim Stynes, Karmichael Hunt, Mike Pyke, Ron Barassi, Rugby League
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It was inevitable that the surprising news of Karmichael Hunt’s decision to take up an AFL contract with the new Gold Coast team would send all the sports media and punters in to a feeding frenzy.
It appears to have caught everyone by surprise, with more than a hint of the cloak and dagger about it from the AFL – going all the way to the top.
My personal take on it is that it’s nothing more than a career decision on the part of Hunt. That it’s probably good marketing on the part of the new club. That some league players and their agents may try and get a bit of mileage out of it for future contract negotiations.
But otherwise, I reckon it’s business as usual for both the AFL and the NRL. There are no long term ramifications.
However, silly comments are already pouring in about all manner of things: it’s bad for the NRL; or it’s bad for the AFL; or it shows how weak they both are; shows that anyone can play AFL, and so on.
Basically, these are ignorant and prejudiced comments that are made without any knowledge of what Hunt can or can’t do, and any knowledge of what is required of either game at the elite level.
So I’d like to split this article into two parts:
1. What the chances are of Hunt making a successful transition from rugby league to Australian Football
2. Answering some of the more stupid comments I have seen on various forums.
The Probability of Success
Firstly, I would define a successful transition as Hunt playing ten games in his first season of AFL and then exceeding that number in his second season (barring injury, of course). I think that would be a fair enough achievement and would be deserving of plenty of praise, if he were to achieve it.
We should all bear in mind that the idea of recruiting players from other codes was first put into practice by Ron Barassi while coaching Melbourne in the early 1980s. In 1984, he brought over a few young Gaelic footballers who were all recognised as future champions in their sport at the time.
The group included Sean Wight, and in particular, Jim Stynes, who went on to achieve great success with Melbourne, winning a Brownlow and playing in a Grand Final along the way.
So let’s have a look at Jim Stynes.
The most important thing to bear in mind is that there are similarities in the biomechanics of each game, primarily being able to kick and handball while running at full pace (two of the key distinguishing features in Australian and Gaelic Football as compared to other codes).
Yet, it took Jim Stynes a full three years of special training and running around in the Reserves (often with a “runner” alongside him) to be in a position to finally debut in 1987, after which he was immediately dropped.
In other words, it required a massive effort from both the club and Stynes to become a regular player (which he eventually did with distinction).
It should also be remembered that Stynes was a very gifted athlete, with good stamina and good natural fitness, which no doubt helped him finally achieve the record of the most consecutive games ever played – 244, an incredible achievement in anyone’s language.
But even with everything going for him, including having the physique to play the specific role of ruckman, it was a long and arduous journey for him.
Stynes is not only remembered for longevity in the game, he is also remembered for one infamous event.
In his debut year, 1987, playing in a preliminary final, and with Melbourne only seconds away from qualifying for their first grand final in 23 years, Stynes committed the mortal sin of running across the mark and providing Buckenara with a 15 metre penalty that put him in range of goal, which he duly converted from about 45 metres.
Put all this together and the lesson?
Absolutely everything, absolutely everything, has to go your way just to have a fighting chance at making even a small success of the game if you’re coming from outside the game – and that also includes oodles of effort on the parts of both the club and the player.
Also, as the preliminary final example shows, in any game, there are little nuances that you better get on top of very quickly otherwise it’s going to be a very short career.
To show the basic skills out on the training track is one thing – to display an intuition for the game in the helter skelter chaos that is Australian Football is something completely different.
Back to Hunt.
The one disadvantage he has is that he can’t naturally slot into an identifiable position like ruck, whereas Stynes, and more recently, Mike Pyke, obviously had the right build and temperament to play ruck.
Some have mentioned half-back flank, where, for arguments sake, he might be asked to mind a player like Gary Ablett.
Let’s consider this scenario.
Hunt is minding Ablett on the flank (which in the modern game, might mean almost anything). The ball is 100 metres downfield, but could be in Ablett’s hands within a few seconds via a huge number of variations in play, far too many to mention in even a longish article such as this.
Would Hunt have the smarts right now to make sure Ablett didn’t get his hands on the ball?
I can promise you now, he wouldn’t.
This isn’t a question of relative skills, toughness, speed, or whatever. It’s about reading the game and having real time on-field smarts – and Hunt would not have that right now in any meaningful degree (certainly not sufficient to stop Ablett getting to the footy).
Responding to silly points being made out there on the blogosphere
1. It shows that anyone can play AFL
Seeing that where AFL clubs look beyond the AFL, they target gifted athletes, one could mount the argument that it shows the exact opposite.
2. It shows that you only need to be an athlete to play AFL
It’s certainly true that athleticism will get you far if you don’t have a background in the game, in the sense that the Swans don’t mind trying out Pyke because he’s 200 cm and can run with pace and has great stamina.
If he had been that tall but lacked the pace and stamina, they wouldn’t have bothered!
However, as you will see above, athleticism, hardness, and ball skills, are not enough on their own. As in all sports, you need to have an understanding of the game at an intuitive level – that’s the biggest challenge.
3. AC Milan or Barcelona wouldn’t recruit someone from another game
I’ve come across this one a few times already in various blogs. It sounds true at first glance, but then it occurred to me – some of the biggest and best names in the game do not come from an Association Football background (think about it).
That aside, I’m aware of a few former Gaelic Football schoolboy champions who have had very successful careers at the elite level of Association Football. Niall Quinn comes to mind. But I know there are others.
4. This is a disaster for the NRL and/or the AFL
Yes, different people are saying it’s the end of the world for one or the other. Pay no attention to that. This time next year, most will have forgotten that Hunt is scratching around for the footy in the VFL in some bumpy suburban ground somewhere in Melbourne.
This tale has a long way to play out. Just follow it and enjoy the ride!
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July 31st 2009 @ 11:01am
Pippinu said | July 31st 2009 @ 11:01am | Report comment
It’s a very difficult thing to try to imagine what Hunt will encounter when he’s out there on an oval chasing the pig skin around.
I’ve used the example of whether he was tasked with minding Ablett, not to belittle him, but to understand the difficulties of the transition.
On the one hand, the coach might give the very simple instructions: don’t let him out of your sight, retain touch at all times, once he’s got the ball, nail him hard. Ok – so far so good, Hunt will be able to do that much.
But it’s the different scenarios that will arise where he is going to think about what he should be doing, where he should be, etc.
Here is a very simple example I’ve dug out.
Rooke (who coincidentally has been mentioned recently as well), takes the mark a bit outside 50. Look very carefully, a Crow is tagging Ablett, but after the mark, allows him to cross the mark, wander over towards the boundary, and pretty much lose his tagger completely. The tagger might be thinking: he’s 60 metres away from goal, out on the boundary, I can let him go, he can’t hurt us from there, I’ll mark space in the 50m, etc (all very valid and reasonable responses)
But Ablett takes the handball and hugging the boundary nails the goal from about 50 m post high.
It’s just one very simple example (of a million different variations) where it’s so easy for a player to make the wrong decision in terms of where he should and shouln’d be, what he should be doing, etc, etc.
Honestly, there are a million variations possible – that’s where the lack of instinct can hurt a team (and where Hunt starts off with a natural disadvantage).
July 31st 2009 @ 11:16am
Redb said | July 31st 2009 @ 11:16am | Report comment
Pip,
Having had more time to think about Hunt’s decision beyond the marketing coup,etc. I think GC will initially look to his immediate strengths such as tackling and herding pressure.
Unlike the Irish recruits and even the almost irrelevant comparison with Mike Pyke (specialist ruck role) K Hunt brings top notch tackling skills and a side step that will make it hard for players with the ball to get around him easily.
If you look at where St Kilda is currently taking the game with their “frontal pressure” where hard running fierce tackling pressure is causing mistakes deep in an oppositions defence I could see K Hunt from the outset making great strides in just causing turnovers with his tackling and pressure (both real and perceived).
There has been a noticable increase in tackling pressure in the game in the last 2-3 years. Not so dumb from a pure footy perspective at all, especially when he might be surrounded by a lot of young players with immature bodies.
Redb
July 31st 2009 @ 11:34am
Pippinu said | July 31st 2009 @ 11:34am | Report comment
Here’s another example I’ve dug up, that involves Ablett (as a what if scenario).
In this one, play is on the opposite side pretty much between Geelong’s half back flank and wing. they transfer play diagonally to their own forward pocket, moving the ball about 150 metres in the space of a few seconds.
Ablett comes from nowhere to take a very solid grab hard up on the boundary where he converts again.
The reason I wanted to pull this one out is that Ablett has probably crossed from the opposite pocket and run about 60 metres to get on the end of this. The Crow defender has done a great job to stay with him every step of the way, was there on the spot to spoil, but Ablett was too good.
My point is that Hunt starts off with an even bigger disadvantage than that Crow defender:
1. right now, he’d struggle to shadow him those 60 metres (without giving a free kick away); and
2. he has no experience in putting on the spoil in those sorts of circumstances (and will no doubt give away a mass of free kicks in learning how to do it).
Once again, very experienced players struggle to stop Ablett, but someone with very little experience, will struggle even more (at least for a while, until they adapt, if they can adapt).
July 31st 2009 @ 12:10pm
Pippinu said | July 31st 2009 @ 12:10pm | Report comment
redb
like a defensive forward perhaps?
At no stage have I called this dumb.
As Roos said, GC is paying $1 mill per annum for a player who right now, in terms of readiness for the game, would be a $100,000 to $200,000 proposition – that’s a reasonable viewpoint.
The thing I have been trying to stress in this thread is the lack of instinct for the game (that we occasionally see in someone like Tom Williams, who has now been in the system for 4 or 5 years).
Football smarts, reading the game, tricks of the trade, call it what you will – Hunt will lack it for at least the first two years of his three year stint (just as Jimmy Stynes lacked it for the first three or four years).
July 31st 2009 @ 1:39pm
Tom said | July 31st 2009 @ 1:39pm | Report comment
RedB makes quite a good case actually.
Being able to push off an opponent and change direction quickly are also important skills in that part of the ground.
I think pSmith actually makes a good case in his own nasty, sarcastic way. The unprecedented level of involvement the AFL had in this recruiting decision makes it pretty clear that they see this as being a lot more than an individual decision by one rugby league player.
They see it as another shot in the war.
I think the AFL is trying to target the talented young athletes in NSW and Queensland that could play any sport, but choose to grow up and play rugby. That helps explain why they’re prepared to wear such massive costs to get up teams in Gold Coast and West Sydney. More teams, more exposure and more professional opportunities in those markets could draw away some of the talent.
Thats part of why they see Karmichael Hunt as such an important coup, and worth shelling out the money and bending the rules. It sells AFL as a career and not just as a sport.
July 31st 2009 @ 2:01pm
Redb said | July 31st 2009 @ 2:01pm | Report comment
Correct!
July 31st 2009 @ 1:59pm
Pippinu said | July 31st 2009 @ 1:59pm | Report comment
Tom
re targeting athletes (or young sportsmen), the AFL has probably been in that space for a solid decade now.
My article didn’t really focus on the external benefits to either GC or the AFL of Hunt’s signing, more about his chances of succeeding.
There’s a general consensus that he’ll be back playing league at the end of three years – I’m not saying that for sure, but there’s certainly a good chance of that happening.
July 31st 2009 @ 9:19pm
Pippinu said | July 31st 2009 @ 9:19pm | Report comment
What I’m about to write gives me no joy, but the idea has been brewing in my mind ever since I discovered Demetriou’s role in all this (for which Link kindly forgave me) – the best we can say about this aspect of the whole affair is that it is highly irregular (and that’s being very generous to both Demetriou and the AFL).
There’s the story of how Bucks did a scout report based on a bit of a kick to kick (compare that to the absolute rigours and torture 17 and 18 year old kids are put through in determining if they are up to AFL).
The fact that GC coach, Guy McKenna, seemingly had zero say in all this.
The fact that he wants to play a 3rd code in between (rather than dedicate that valuable time to familiarising himself with his new career).
The fact that he is close to the highest paid AFL player now, when he would be lucky to be in the top 200 (at this point in time).
Finally, for the second time, I saw a bit of vision of him having a muck around kick, and the boys on Before the Bounce, saw it as well, and the reaction was predictable, any AFL fan would think the same – if I was coaching and saw an U13 player trying to kick a footy the way he was trying to kick it – I’d absolutely rip into him.
It was ugly to say the least (and not the style of kicking that would normally attract $40k, let alone $1 mill).
It was the sort of thing that would have specialist coaches working overtime for two years – but – Bucks said he had perfect technique!! It’s all highly suspicious.
If he can achieve 10 plus games in two consecutive years, I still maintain that he would have done extraordinarly well – and good luck to him in achieving that.
But right at this moment – it not only smacks of pure marketing – but it’s bordering on high farce.
August 1st 2009 @ 7:07am
Redb said | August 1st 2009 @ 7:07am | Report comment
Pip,
I think you’ll find Hunt was just mucking around with his Broncos mates, ie: not trying too hard to look like an AFL player.
Demetriou was also doing his own form of due diligence on Hunt personally due to the toilet incident last year – fair enough too.
Highest paid player includes a healthy ‘unique’ bonus – crossing the divide is worth a few dollars.
If you respect the football intelligence of Scott Clayton, Nathan Buckley and Jason McCartney you have no problem in letting them pass judgement rather than a bunch of bloggers who have never seen him put through his paces.
Hunt is coming over on his own terms, he obviously had planned to give Euro rugby a go first and there has been some flexbility given – the biggest risk is injury.
He might stay in AFL for 3 years and then move on, who might renew for 2-3 years if going well? He only make a reasonable AFL footballer with his existing skill limitations but he may also provide a X factor for the GC team.
Finally, since when is marketing a new thing in sport – it thrives on these types of factors – gets crowd, TV audiences, sponsor interest – look at the big picture and it’s a seismic event.
Redb
Redb
August 1st 2009 @ 8:04am
MyGeneration said | August 1st 2009 @ 8:04am | Report comment
An interesting article in today’s SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/lhqnews/code-war-steeped-in-history/2009/07/31/1248977193820.html
August 1st 2009 @ 8:55pm
Michael C said | August 1st 2009 @ 8:55pm | Report comment
Great article – - I’m a huge North fan and I don’t recall ever hearing that story about twinkle toes.
Hmmm, his sons David and Anthony were only so – so when they played at North, perhaps a St.George person with a long memory might’ve taken’em off our hands……
August 1st 2009 @ 8:11am
MyGeneration said | August 1st 2009 @ 8:11am | Report comment
And Roy Masters looks at it from another angle:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/lhqnews/hunt-and-the-hunted-afl-targets-nrls-monopoly-on-islanders/2009/07/31/1248977193823.html