Resting players is just flirting with form

 

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By simonjzw, 18 Aug 2009 simonjzw is a Roar Rookie

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 AFL, Geelong Cats, St Kilda Saints

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Most media commentators believe Geelong and St. Kilda have been smart to give key players some time off in the lead up to the finals. But is there any evidence to support this idea?

It’s difficult to recall any premiers in the last 20 years who have used this policy to advantage.

In fact, Malcolm Blight tried it one year with Geelong (and was lauded at the time in the media for being “smart” and “innovative”) and it famously backfired on him.

He was subsequently quoted as saying he would never do it again.

When the Swans won the premiership in 2005, they went through the last half of the season making only one change. They went into the finals with a settled line up that had confidence in its own “battle hardness”. This was never more evident than when they ran over St. Kilda in the Preliminary Final.

And while it’s true only club insiders will know how many of the changes Geelong and St. Kilda made were truly necessary, the wisdom of yesteryear shouldn’t be disregarded just because it comes from yesteryear.

One truism every old time player will tell you is “never flirt with your form”.

The unsettling nature of having large groups of players moving in and out of a team must have some impact on form. So it’s no coincidence that Geelong isn’t playing anywhere near as well now as they have in the last 60 odd games.

This was also a factor in St. Kilda’s loss to Essendon.

Just how big a factor is impossible to quantify but given the final result was only two points it’s not fanciful to suppose a different result if St. Kilda had retained its settled line up.

The superficial view is that a loss (or 2) won’t effect the ladder positions and there’s plenty of time to regain form before the finals begin but those same old timers will also tell you that you can’t turn your form on and off like a tap.

And to the rest of the competition St. Kilda and Geelong are no longer bullet proof and have lost the significant psychological advantage they held earlier in the season.

For St. Kilda the problem is magnified by the fact that Essendon made them look ordinary at times and it’s possible they have cracked the code to beating St. Kilda.

St. Kilda’s never been quick through the midfield and to get around this deficiency they’ve employed a very smart full court press and focussed on winning the contested ball. Before yesterday’s match St. Kilda were winning an average of 108 contested possessions to their opponents 100. Yesterday they won 96 to Essendon’s 124.

The message is clear. If you can win the contested ball and move it quickly (with run and carry or precision disposal) you’ll expose St. Kilda’s lack of midfield pace and they’ll be vulnerable.

As to Geelong, they haven’t been able to get their midfield functioning as well since they rested their players against Brisbane. The lack of frequency and quality of forward 50 entries has highlighted their brittle forward line and opposition midfields have been able to put Geelong’s defence under pressure. It’s much harder for Geelong defenders to sag off opponents and pick off errant passes when the opposition midfield is allowed to play better.

None of this would be as obvious if Geelong and St. Kilda had stayed with their settled line ups and held their form better.

And while it makes for a more interesting finals series I doubt it helps either side in its quest for a premiership.

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