Fos concludes that the AFL is weak
Roar Guru By Pippinu, 24 Aug 2009 Pippinu is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- A-League, Craig Foster, FFA, football, Wayne Jackson
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An interesting article appeared in the Sunday SMH from Craig Foster: Tim’s army is winning code war.
The title drew me in immediately, but I was soon left a bit disappointed to find Fos descending into the wide eyed speculation and wishful thinking we sometimes see of our younger bloggers.
I have a great deal of respect for Fos, in particular, the analysis and understanding he brings to unraveling the tactics managers use in games at the elite level, but on this occasion, I can’t help thinking he has missed the mark by a wide margin.
Early on Fos mentions attending a charity luncheon in Melbourne, which he describes as venturing into the “heart of a rival code”.
This immediately struck me as odd. Melbourne, the home of the biggest and most successful football club in the land, reduced to being viewed as the home of a rival code instead?
Much of the article then goes through various “smell the fear” cliches that we’ve heard without cessation since the establishment of the FFA some 5 years ago.
Towards the end of the article, Fos draws on a quote from an AFL rep, that “everyone can coexist”. Fos took this as a sign of weakness from the AFL, foreshadowing a times-are-a-changin’ scenario of biblical proportions “as the strong become weak and the weak ever stronger”.
Now I understand how segments of his readership would lap up that sort of wishful thinking, but people should be aware that all indicators presently available to us show that what Fos is saying isn’t based on anything too solid.
But never mind what the financial figures and metrics show, let me all give you an insider’s view of how the AFL hierarchy contemplates such matters.
It was some 10 years ago that I attended a presentation made by the then AFL CEO, Wayne Jackson, at the National Press Club.
He responded to a question very similar to the kind Fos heard at the luncheon, and his response was along similar lines: “All the codes can coexist”.
Let me tell you, the AFL has been trotting that line out since the national comp was first formed in 1990 (when the VFL officially became the AFL).
Sitting in Sydney, seemingly oblivious to all relevant metrics and indicators, Fos probably can’t see it, but I see it as clear as day.
When an AFL CEO says “we can all get along just fine”, I promise you this: he doesn’t say it from a position of weakness!
Recommend this story.
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- A-League, Craig Foster, FFA, football, Wayne Jackson
August 24th 2009 @ 11:26am
The 1 and Only Master said | August 24th 2009 @ 11:26am | Report comment
I just don’t see any growth of soccer in this country, apart from the Socceroos.
The crowds are down in Melbourne and the roar got a an absolute shocker of 7K on the weekend. That is appalling. Not to mention the underwhelming support shown to the GC and Nth Qld. Soccer zealots claim it’s only early days for these 2 clubs and they will grow, well not if you look at the Roar as a blueprint.
The fact is that the A-league after it’s initial hype is on the wane. Expansion was supposed to be the answer, it’s not.
The media are giving the game as much push as they can and it’s failing to ignite increased interest in the game
The Soccerroo’s have increased their popularity, but a large body of their additional support is from people supporting Australia not the code of soccer.
Not trying to spark a war here just giving you my opinion. If you can show me cold hard facts to dispute my view I will be happy to review my opinion, but haven’t seen anything to do so in the past 5 years
August 24th 2009 @ 11:46am
Dogs Of War said | August 24th 2009 @ 11:46am | Report comment
To be honest, HAL starting during the run down to the finals of the AFL and NRL hurts attendances, as many supporters are cross code supporters, and want to be seen supporting there team at the business end of the season.
HAL support will grow once either people’s teams are knocked out and/or the final series for these comps have finished. Until then, it’s hard to make a proper judgement on the support levels.
August 24th 2009 @ 11:27am
captain nemo said | August 24th 2009 @ 11:27am | Report comment
Please excuse my ignorance but who is Jock McHale?? Would anyone have a link to the article by Sheedy…….Cheers
August 24th 2009 @ 11:33am
Redb said | August 24th 2009 @ 11:33am | Report comment
Just some Collingwood bloke, best to ignore or else they’ll surface like demons (magpies) from the deep.
http://www.theroar.com.au/2009/08/22/sheedy-optimistic-over-western-sydney/#more-22560
Collingwood are equal flag favourites now, getting unbearable.
Redb
August 24th 2009 @ 5:48pm
Dave said | August 24th 2009 @ 5:48pm | Report comment
James McHale was player and coach for Collingwood the most successful coach in VFL/AFL history
He coached 714 VFL games with 467 wins and 10 draws (a 66.1% winning rate). This included a record 59 finals matches and 17 Grand Finals for 8 premierships. including the record four premierships in a row,between 1927 and 1930.
Jock McHale was inducted into the Australian Football Hall of Fame and then was elevated to legend status in 2005.
The premiership coach is awarded the Jock McHale Medal
August 24th 2009 @ 11:55am
AndyRoo said | August 24th 2009 @ 11:55am | Report comment
RedB I agree on the large with what you have wrote.
Personally I don’t want too see promotion and relegation because the rest of the world might have it but I like the Australian way of salary caps and no relegation. It’s good to go into a season thinking your in it to win it or you are building a team to challenge in a couple of years. All the leagues that have promotion relegation seem to have less title contenders and that’s a sad thing for me. European Leagues also don’t normally have playoffs in the top division but I don’t think the A league finals will be going anywhere soon. The MLS still has distinctly American traits (Salary Cap, playoffs, Confrences and a Draft) and is doing well for itself.
But in relation to Football support, I agree that the Socceroos aren’t necessarily the right barometer for domestic success (I knew a lot of fair weathered Wallaby fans that would only watch the Super 14 if the Tahs were doing well) but it at least shows people what top-level football is like.
I think a good indicator for potential growth is the popularity of the foreign leagues in Australia. A certain amount of that support is rusted on and would never support the HAL but I think the majority for Australian based EPL fans represent a market for club football not yet satisfied by what the HAL is providing. We may never match the EPL in quality on the field but if we get close enough then the fact it’s local will get us over the line. That does require keeping our players for longer in Australia, which may be a case of chicken and the egg but I think where getting there (quality coaches are also important and again I think where on the up).
Look at Gold Coast United, they have already lost a player overseas but it was for 1.5 million dollars and I think most fans are happy for Griffiiths. The Brisbane Roar on the other hand in there first few years lost a lot of so-so players to places like Romania and I doubt received much compensation in return. Those types of moves are upsetting but some of those guys are already coming back and I cant imagine Gold Coast letting someone like Minnecon leave to go to some nowhere overseas league. Hopefully the 5 plus 6 rule comes n so we only lose the top draw of players and not before they have done well in the HAL.
I know when the HAL started I wasn’t on board straight away.
I watched a few matches on TV, followed SFC in the World Club Championship and their ACL campaign. But it slowly grew on me to reach my tipping point and I started watching Arsenal less and less until that support felt hollow watching a team I could only see on TV and I have attended a few Roar games. I understand a lot of Football fans will need a bit more exposure than me to be won over but Lowy’s push for FTA is an essential part of the growth.
That’s why I don’t worry so much what over codes are doing because the HAL has a great potential for growth without touching anyone who isn’t already a football fan.
We are never going to win over Lee Mathews but we don’t need to, and the comp can still grow.
August 24th 2009 @ 12:05pm
Redb said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:05pm | Report comment
AndyRoo,
That’s a fair perspective. Will futbol grow in the next decade?, more than likely, but all football codes seem to be in a growth phase with the exception of rugby union but on a world scale many posters of the Roar beleive it is growing as well.
I’ve loosely followed Man United since about 1975, the EPL has been popular for yonks.
Redb
August 24th 2009 @ 6:55pm
Dave said | August 24th 2009 @ 6:55pm | Report comment
the English first division was in the doldrums in the 80′s its modern burst of popularity came with the premier league in the 90′s
August 24th 2009 @ 11:57am
Robbos said | August 24th 2009 @ 11:57am | Report comment
Again, just to show how well football in the country has grown, but someone above complaints about a 7K crowd in Football. 5 years ago we would be happy with that crowd for any NSL match. I don’t remember how many socceroos games I have been over the years in Australia where the visiting team outnumbered the locals as all the expats came along.
Football in this country has come along way in this country & people like Pip who comments that he can’t see this is looking the way.
Whether the game gets to where Foster mentions in his article is irrevelant, but as Luke W mentions football has many mediums the A-League, the socceroos, overseas matches & int’l competitons the envy of all.
Just have at a look at the kids today, you see more football shirts, be they SFC, Man U, Barcelona, socceroos or even Beckham shirts depending on where he is playing than any other sports.
A Australian football (no not the local game) star advertising on National TV was unheard of a few years ago, but Team Timmy would be just about the most bankable football (any codes) star to promote your products Australia wide.
August 24th 2009 @ 6:57pm
Dave said | August 24th 2009 @ 6:57pm | Report comment
15 years ago kids were wearing NBA tops..and before that rugby league tops through Canterbury were popular as fashion items
August 24th 2009 @ 12:05pm
The 1 and Only Master said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:05pm | Report comment
When you play a game out of a 1st rate stadium, get plenty of media coverage, have a large marketing budget and still only get 7K to a game that requires 20,000 to break even is a step backwards, not forwards.
Maybe the old NSL games got less than 1/2 this attendance but they didn’t have so many things working in their favour.
Yeah i always think it’s a great look when an Aussie kids wearing a Barcelona or L.A. Lakers shirt.
August 24th 2009 @ 12:09pm
Pippinu said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:09pm | Report comment
I can only repeat that if you look at the stark numbers (the ones with dollar figures in front of them), there is nothing there to suggest that the A-League will be the dominant football comp in 20 years time.
I’m not saying it won’t happen, or that it’s impossible, but nothing is showing up in the figures to suggest that it will happen.
It reminds me of people who suggest that the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the US in 20 years time.
Yeh, maybe, but only in the unlikely event that the Chinese continues double digit growth, and the US economy has zero growth over a 20 year period.
That’s pretty much what would have to happen for the A-League to overtake the AFL and NRL in 20 years time – it’s an extremely unlikely scenario – put you’re very best estimates on the growth of the A-League and the decline of the other two, and you still don’t get anywhere near a position of dominance in 20 years – that’s the sort of stark realism I’m trying to bring to the table.
August 24th 2009 @ 5:28pm
Realfootball said | August 24th 2009 @ 5:28pm | Report comment
I’m with you there, Pip. The wildcard in all this is if someone like Murdoch decides to pull out of NRL and go with the round ball code, as Packer was prepared to do, we are told, back in the 70s. It would require a confluence of demographics and economics that is not at all impossible to conceive of in our age of rampant globalisation.
So yes, in current terms, Foz is up the creek completely. And I don’t believe AFL would be under threat even then. It is NRL that would be under the hammer, because the comp exits only with media money.
August 24th 2009 @ 6:59pm
Dave said | August 24th 2009 @ 6:59pm | Report comment
Murdoch would not be making any money televising the a-league as it is, he’s not going to invest more. Ask Robbie Slater or graham Arnold how wise it is spending money investing in Australian soccer
August 24th 2009 @ 8:36pm
AndyRoo said | August 24th 2009 @ 8:36pm | Report comment
I think football best chance would be if someone like Murdoch took over AFL, if not for him then rugby league would be doing even better than it is.
August 24th 2009 @ 12:11pm
Fly on the Wall said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:11pm | Report comment
Soccer will only become the dominant code when it has the biggest free-to-air TV deal – meaning at least 3/5 games each week are shown in prime time on weekends, preferably live.
That will never happen – NRL and AFL will long control the TV market in their respective states.
Australians want to watch fast, open footy with some legitimate body contact – not a game for pussies full of diving, running away from the play screaming for free kicks, shirt-pulling, handbag waving.
Harsh but fair.
I grew up in Wagga so have seen all the codes from close quarters all my life and have no particular bias due to geography or ethnicity.
So how do I rate the 4 footy codes taking in the factors of entertainment, skill, attractiveness and physicality?
1. AFL by some margin for all the above factors
2. NRL for its speed and simplicity
3. RU – the rule makers have lost the plot, it has more stops and starts than gridiron and is inexplicable
4. Soccer – great for little kids as an introduction to sport, but once they’re about 8 or 9 get them into a fair dinkum sport that encourages and rewards attack and values athleticism and skill – like hockey.
August 24th 2009 @ 12:23pm
Pippinu said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:23pm | Report comment
Fly on the Wall
you point on FTA is well made – but please leave the disrespectful remarks about any code out of future posts.
This thread is not about bagging one or another code, nor is it really about expressing personal preferences.
It’s more about looking at hard, cold facts and figures in front of us and determining what’s likely into the near future, and about being a bit more circumspect with our predictions.
August 24th 2009 @ 1:34pm
Redb said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:34pm | Report comment
what you said.
August 24th 2009 @ 12:28pm
AndyRoo said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:28pm | Report comment
It harsh but not fair because that’s now how the majority of a football match is played out. That’s like me saying Rugby league is all scrums or AFL is all waiting for the red light to go before you can restart, it’s bs wogball talk.
To argue that AFL is more skilful than Football is clearly rose-colored glasses. I think in regards to Skill Football is clearly number one, that doesn’t mean it’s the number one spectacle though because in regards to physicality its number 4.
The physicality aspect is why I can enjoy Football and Rugby league. Jarred Hayne or Benji Marshall may not be as skilful as Jason Cullina but their still pretty skilful and they pull of a flick pass with Foi Foi Moi Moi in front of them.
Plus a Sonny Bill shoulder charge was one of the most electric things in world sport.
August 24th 2009 @ 12:12pm
AndyRoo said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:12pm | Report comment
Master
Despite the fact the comp has improved support has slowly dwindled, this is pretty much what happened with the J league too. Once the local A league guys start playing in more ACL matches, getting selected for the Asian Cup qualifiers and such and a free to air deal is done it will gain some momentum.
I think Victory are a better example for the Roar because the Roars lack of support was predictable for local reasons, in Victory’s case it may lift again when they get a new stadium (depending on how much Hearts take from them) and then again when they replace Archie Thompson with someone that genuinely brings in bums on seats but there wont be a giant turn around for the league as a whole until they get the next big boost (more likely FTA than the Soccerroos at this stage)
I felt pretty comfortable picking that poor crowd figure for the Brisbane Roar before it happened. When the NRL finishes there will be a slight upswing in support, not because of Broncos fans going to the game but more because they will then get a bigger slice of the Brisbane media pie. It won’t be enough to save the Roar though unless they start winning and some of their young players show some signs of actually developing. The Roar have been treading water for a few years now, and normally you would say get rid of the coach but I don’t think they would get a better coach because the current ownership are pretty focused on containing losses.
There tickets are way to expensive for what there providing, they have the most expensive tickets in the A league and are just as expensive as the Broncos. I don’t think that works for a comp that has only been around 5 years, can only be watched on Pay TV and has little media exposure.
August 24th 2009 @ 12:45pm
Ghost said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:45pm | Report comment
Master is a dill. He’d prefer his kid wear the shirt of some suburban club in some meaningless comp of some totally isolated game played at some dubious standard rather than that same kid wear the shirt of a globally-recognised club which is all about the pinnacle of quality.
August 24th 2009 @ 1:19pm
AndyRoo said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:19pm | Report comment
I also feel it’s abit hollow now too see people suppporting overseas clubs. Two faced of me because I used to do it, and enjoyed seeing someone wearing their oseas football top, but I now much prefer too see pople wearing Roar orange than Man Utd red unless they have a pommy accent or a good travel story.
I wonder if the world cup bid is making me an angry xenophobe. I know it’s shaping my atttiudes towars the Poms a little bit.
August 24th 2009 @ 1:20pm
Redb said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:20pm | Report comment
Red flag.
August 24th 2009 @ 1:20pm
Fly on the Wall said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:20pm | Report comment
The pinnacle of quality, eh?
If the Toyota Corolla or Volkswagen Beetle is the world’s most popular car does that make it the pinnacle of quality?
No, it just means it’s the most accessible across the globe.
Same with soccer. That’s why it’s the world game.
I had a very interesting discussion with my chiropractor the other day. He’s an Aussie-Croatian and a soccer fan, with two boys playing the game, but who also appreciates league, union and AFL.
I said to him that IMHO soccer people appear unable or unwilling to argue rationally / logically about the relative merits of the competing football codes, and even to discuss the problems I see with soccer – THAT HOLD IT BACK IN AUSTRALIA.
I’ll save the details for another day but he listened carefully and agreed with most of my points of view and considered them very interesting and definite food for thought. As we parted he was deep in thought and eagerly awaiting my next appointment so we could continue our friendly discussion.
August 24th 2009 @ 1:24pm
AndyRoo said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:24pm | Report comment
Just be carful mate, he’s not a dentist but I still wouldn’t want too say anything that took his mind of the job.
August 24th 2009 @ 1:26pm
Fly on the Wall said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:26pm | Report comment
You could say I’ll have to watch my back!
August 24th 2009 @ 2:17pm
DiCanio said | August 24th 2009 @ 2:17pm | Report comment
What if you collect club and country jerseys?
August 24th 2009 @ 5:33pm
Realfootball said | August 24th 2009 @ 5:33pm | Report comment
You are clearly a font of wisdom, Fly. Your chiro is indeed fortunate to be a captive audience during your visits.
August 24th 2009 @ 7:59pm
Tom said | August 24th 2009 @ 7:59pm | Report comment
Your car comparison is absurd. More people buy Corollas than Lexuses because they cost half as much. There’s no inherent ‘costliness’ to AFL or rugby league.
Soccer is accessible because its popular. Not the other way around. Interestingly, soccer has a meaningful presence virtually everywhere in the world, even when it isn’t the dominant code. That can’t be said for any other team sport.
Honestly, if that’s your idea of a rational argument, no wonder soccer fans are unwilling to accept your views.
August 24th 2009 @ 7:02pm
Dave said | August 24th 2009 @ 7:02pm | Report comment
its not a meaningless comp
August 24th 2009 @ 12:31pm
The 1 and Only Master said | August 24th 2009 @ 12:31pm | Report comment
AndyRoo
Thanks for the measured response
A quick question for you. In 5 years time what average crowds do you think the A-League will be drawing
August 24th 2009 @ 1:14pm
AndyRoo said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:14pm | Report comment
Depends on FTA deal (not for the money but for the coverage). With no FTA and no expansion in 5 years I would say 9k. Melbourne would be getting 15k to 20 but a fair few teams would be changing owners and that kills support faster than roadrunner.
I would guess that a free to air deal would happen and we would have just completed one season with it in place, NZ won’t qualify for the world cup and Canberra and Tasmania might get a gig by 2014 but will be in their early infancy.
So my estimate would be around roughly where we are now (12,700). There are some teams like Perth or the Roar which could be greatly more or a bit less depending on how things go in the next couple of years.
My highly scientific research has found the crowd averages for 2014 to be. i would expect crowds to not really go anywhere until around 2014 and then slowly build (but in an uneven amongst teams).
Brisbane Roar 15k
Gold Coast united 10k
Nth Qld Fury 10k
Newcastle 12k
Central Coast 10k
Sydney FC 15k
Western Sydney 14k
Melbourne Victory 25k
Melbourne Hearts 15k
Tasmania 8.3k
Canberra 7.5k
Perth 13k
Adelaide 13k
Wellington 10k
August 24th 2009 @ 1:41pm
Ghost said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:41pm | Report comment
I’ll take those numbers up to the next TV deal. What was your methodology?
August 24th 2009 @ 1:01pm
BigAl said | August 24th 2009 @ 1:01pm | Report comment
Craig Foster over the last few years appears to have worked hard at turning himself into a Sports Journalist (albeit a specialist one), and especially on TV he’s done a pretty good job – anyone know if he’s had any formal training ?
However his print piece in the SMH was embarressingly poor journalism – his facts to back up the thrust of his article were flimsy to put it mildly!
They sounded more like something someone may have mumbled to him in passing – just to be polite.