Bok-check time for the All Blacks
Roar Guru By ohtani's jacket, 8 Sep 2009 The Crowd is a Roar Guru
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I must admit that I’ve enjoyed the past few weeks, watching the Springboks become the Wallabies’ problem, safe in the knowledge that the Bledisloe is retained for another year. But it’s back to reality as the All Blacks prepare to face the Springboks on home soil.
Ideally the Springboks would’ve liked to have clinched the Tri-Nations before stepping foot on New Zealand soil, and perhaps even rested some players, but taking the title from the All Blacks in New Zealand, and inflicting a further home loss on them, has be the stuff that Bok dreams are made of.
For the record, I don’t think the All Blacks can win the Tri-Nations.
The last time they scored four tries in a Test was in a pick-up game against the Scots and they’ve only managed four tries in their past four Tests.
Considering that the All Blacks are averaging 23 points in the past two Tri-Nations (to the opposition’s 20 points), and have scored 19 points in their past three games, they’d have to hold the Boks to zero or three points to make any sort of inroads on the points differential.
Still, the Boks won’t want to leave their fate in the Wallabies’ hands.
I expect the Springboks to revert to their kick and chase game in Hamilton. If they take control of the game early, and put the All Blacks on the wrong side of referee Nigel Owens, then there’s really no need to spring any surprises.
One area that they may look to attack is the All Black midfield – the great Achilles’ heel of New Zealand rugby.
Henry has been flirting with two options to cover the midfield. One option is to switch Daniel Carter to second five and play Stephen Donald at first five. The other option is to move Mils Muliaina from fullback to centre and play Ma’a Nonu at second five.
Neither option is particularly exciting for All Black fans. The Muliaina option conjures up bad memories from the past, while the Donald option has only worked when Donald was subbed on late and was a failure when they experimented with it as a starting option.
If Henry decides to play Donald, the Boks will surely look to target him as they did in South Africa. Then again, putting pressure on Carter is a favourite trick of the Boks, so it may not make a difference in regards to the Boks’ tactics.
The answer to the midfield selection may lie in the All Blacks’ tactics. Do they try to attack from the outset and run the risk of the Boks counter attacking, or do they try to play it safe and build towards something in the second half?
In any event, I hope they remember the defensive ramifications.
One of the only successful things the Boks did in Brisbane was attack the Wallabies’ midfield channels from set piece ball. You could maybe argue that they attacked from too far out, but they’re bound to have a crack at the All Blacks’ midfield if they get enough attacking oppositions inside the All Blacks’ half.
As for the All Blacks’ game plan, well, it’s relatively simple – copy the Wallabies.
Throw short to the lineout, try to put pressure on the scrum, be smart about the numbers you commit to the breakdown, keep the ball in hand and try to attack from broken play.
Whether the All Blacks can succeed in doing this depends on a number of factors.
There’s as much chance of Owens reffing the way Barnes did as there is of lightening striking the same place twice. Unless the game is particularly open, I fully expect Owens to get involved.
The scrum may be an issue for the Boks or it may not, but the breakdown will invariably favour one team. My advice to the All Blacks would be to take it one ruck at a time.
The Springboks have had a big year and they may be starting to tire in the forwards.
On the other hand, the All Blacks haven’t shown that they can contend with the Springbok pack. The young guys in the All Black pack – Franks, Ross and Read – have been getting through a mountain of work, but not exactly in a dominating fashion.
They may turn out to be quality players in the future, provided New Zealand rugby doesn’t let its standards slip, but for now the Springboks have an overwhelming advantage in experience.
The All Blacks tied up their line outs and catching under the high ball in time for the Sydney Test, but that was three weeks ago, and I expect the Boks to test the All Blacks early and often.
Really, it’s the Boks who hold all the cards, because it’s the All Blacks who need to score.
One thing that’s impressed me about the Boks’ play this season has been the way they dislodge the ball in the tackle. How many try saving tackles have we seen from the Boks this season, and how many outright strips?
The Boks aren’t that great in broken or loose play, but their scrambling cover defence is quite good, and the All Blacks will have to beat them for numbers if they’re to score enough points.
I’m not sure that they can do it to be honest, and I think a better approach would be to try to win the Test regardless of the score line and worry about the winning margin next week.
A bonus point won’t hand the Springboks the trophy, but it will make it extraordinarily difficult for the All Blacks to win by a big enough margin in Wellington.
For that reason, I think you’ll see the Springboks play a conservative game where they look to put pressure on the All Black defence and kick as many penalties as possible. They may attack from good ball, but they’re just as likely to drop back into the pocket, knowing that the All Blacks are about as adept at defending drop goal attempts as they are at taking them.
All told, I’d rather be in South Africa’s position than New Zealand’s, which is why I’m calling this a Bok-check.
Twice the All Blacks were pinned in their own 22 in South Africa and frustrated by their lack of possession. Let’s see if they’ve learnt anything.
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September 8th 2009 @ 9:05am
Hammer said | September 8th 2009 @ 9:05am | Report comment
The AB’s need to ensure the win first and let the points differential, bonus points issues take care of themselves …
one interesting thing I do note is that the boks have chosen to stay on the Gold Coast and not head to NZ until Thursday …. granted there’s not much if anything to do in Hamilton – but staying on the Gold Coast certainly didn’t help the Sharks this year in the S14 .. surely it would better to be in Auckland to acclimatise than sunning themselves on the beach in 24 degree heat when Hamilton come game time will be around 7 – 8
September 8th 2009 @ 9:49pm
Cats said | September 8th 2009 @ 9:49pm | Report comment
The climate wont affect the boks at all – our spring is currently in the 28-32 deg range and our winter this year was between -4 to a high of about 7 deg – so climatising to the weather is not a problem at all, in fact the cooler the better – hopefully no rain forecasted though – just makes it more difficult for everyone!
September 8th 2009 @ 9:18am
Stash said | September 8th 2009 @ 9:18am | Report comment
I think the All Blacks started showing their form in the second half of their last game in Australia. The midfield injuries makes this harder.
It would be unwise to underestimate the all blacks – they have a rich history and normally absorb pressures well (compared to the Boks last week that showed panic when against the wall).
AB would have taken heart from the Aussies exposing the Boks, while the Boks won’t be confident after being pulled from the high horse.
Undoubtedly, the Boks will be looking to keep the score tight – so will be looking to kick and play in the AB half. Every rugby supporter has seen the Bok’s tactics of hitting the ruck with numbers after the high ball – so the coaching team of the ABs will be seeking to counter this.
If the ABs can stick some of their plays – and can pick up where they left off – they will be hard to contain. ABs are very motivated, they are at home, (the hardest team in the world to beat at home, full stop) and the Boks march to victory has been halted, their line in midfield play has been exposed and they simply don’t have a good away record.
And can the Bok actually play for longer than 60 minutes? They seem to lose structure in the closing 20 (is it the bench)? Boks play well when they are ahead – and terribly when they are behind.
All Blacks looking for a win – if the day is good, looking to push for point differential – Boks secretly hoping to get 1 bonus point…and that’s a big mindset difference.
September 8th 2009 @ 9:54pm
Cats said | September 8th 2009 @ 9:54pm | Report comment
Actually Stash, secretly, the Boks are looking for 5 points. Unlike the Australians its all or nothing. I agree that the AB’s cant be underestimated, especially on home ground, but over the last 2 years the Boks have proved that they can play and win away from home – I am betting on a Boklash!!
And for the final week of the Tri-Nations I sincerely hope and pray that the AB’s give the AA’s a bloody good hiding!!
September 8th 2009 @ 10:42am
Nashi said | September 8th 2009 @ 10:42am | Report comment
Nice assessment OJ. The midfield looks to be a weakness and the Boks have shown a capacity to exploit this. If they are without Habana then their kick chase game will be more kick than chase. The All Blacks will have to watch their ruck infringements under Owen’s watchful eye, particularly within 60m of their own posts. But I think SA will struggle for field position if they don’t get turnover ball at the lineout particularly if Aussie’s short lineout tactics are employed so I expect NZ will try to pin them back with a tough first half defensive performance. Nontheless I see lots of drop kicks and penalty kicks coming your way as the Saffers try to grind one out.
The other factor is the freshness of NZ compared to the lethargy of SA. If SA get run around the park they will undoubtedly tire and the floodgates may open in the 3rd quarter. Perhaps Sivi and co can place the ball over the line better than the Aussies managed. I suspect Henry will take a win and be statisfied with holding onto the Bledisloe. The home crowd will be a factor as it was in Brisbane, particularly for the Boks who seem more susceptible away from home. I don’t think losing three times to SA in one year is acceptable to you Kiwis, so Iexpect there to be plenty of passion. As an Aussie whatever the result I hope you guys are completely knackered afterwards, softened up nicely for Wellington.
September 8th 2009 @ 11:49am
ohtani's jacket said | September 8th 2009 @ 11:49am | Report comment
If Habana is out, I guess Fourie will be the main chaser.
I don’t expect the Springboks to do anything differently from what the French and even the Aussies have done in recent times. Everyone has cottoned onto the fact that the All Blacks do not like rush defence. The Boks will either be up for this game or tired. You can expect the All Blacks to heap as much as pressure as the can on the Bok scrum, but it’s a lottery with the refs these days.
I’d like to see a big game out of Brad Thorn. He’s been good against the Wallabies this season, but come off second best against Botha. That wasn’t the case last year and to beat the Boks you have to take Botha out of the equation. Regardless of his rep, he’s a damn fine player in my view. It’s a similar story with the back row. The Wallabies were extremely successful at nullifying what up until Brisbane had been the best back row in the competition. Even when the subs came on, the Aussies kept smashing away at the breakdown. If the All Blacks fall into their old habit of waiting 50 minutes to control the rucks and mauls, I’m afraid we’ll get into one of those situations where the Test could go either way. On one hand, it’s been good to see the All Blacks win tight games, but I’d like to see something a bit more convincing for a change.
The big question in my mind is whether we can finish. We know that the All Blacks are capable of making line breaks, but can they actually back-up and finish try scoring movements? That’s one aspect of All Black play that just hasn’t been there this season. There hasn’t been a lot of “clean” tries. Most of them have been dead ugly.
We haven’t had a commanding win over the Boks at home since 2002 when we won 41-20 (2007 doesn’t count.) In fact, we’ve only run in four tries against the Boks at home in three out of fourteen Tests (and only 8 out of 21 overall.)
If we can win by 15, like the Aussies did, that would give us a shot to win the title on points diff, I guess, though we’d still need the bonus point in Wellington and a big enough margin.
September 8th 2009 @ 11:29am
Sam Taulelei said | September 8th 2009 @ 11:29am | Report comment
Graham Henry has publicly stated that the All Blacks won’t go chasing the tries and will concentrate on getting the win first. As much as I’d like to believe they are capable of scoring four tries, I agree with OJ that it’s unliikely they will.
As Stash mentioned there were signs during the second half against Australia of a concerted effort to move the ball wide and they did manage to cross the line three times in that second half, so while the execution wasn’t there the intent certainly was. With referee Nigel Owen you’re never quite sure which ref will turn up on the day, he’s shown that he can get into the spirit of the contest and allow the game to flow or be overly fussy with technical infringements.
I’m not sure if NZ will play in a similar fashion to how Australia played last week. The Australian gameplan is what NZ tried to play in SA and is one that some of us have been calling for in recent weeks from both teams. However the disruptions to the All Black midfield might force their hand to play more conservatively.
SA are a big team and NZ’s forwards aren’t as big so we have to be more aggressive at the breakdown and use our smaller size to our advantage by getting our body positions right. Hansen will have to amend our technique at arriving at the breakdown and clearing bodies in attack and defence otherwise we’ll be penalised off the park. Polota Nau’s tackling technique showed the benefit of a low body position in the tackle by aiming for their knees and driving through instead of the conventional ball and all type of tackle around the upper body.
Henry conceded that our work at setpieces against SA was flaky and that they would have to tighten up in that area and that’s a pointer to how he’s going to approach this test. He’s a firm believer in meeting the opposition teams strengths head on, so I expect them to target the Boks setpiece work, even trying to disrupt their lineout. Nothing makes an opposition lineout focus less on your ball than disrupting theirs and for too long we’ve given SA a free ride at lineout time.
I think NZ will win but not by playing the same type of game we saw in Brisbane from Australia , NZ won’t score four tries and SA will get their bonus point for finishing within seven and win the Tri Nations. We’ve got the Bledisloe for another season and that’s the one that truly matters to Kiwis.
September 8th 2009 @ 10:00pm
Cats said | September 8th 2009 @ 10:00pm | Report comment
I sense a tinge of sour grapes in your last paragrph?? How on earth can the Bledisloe be more important than the Tri-Nations trophy? It is obvious you feel “bored” with the Tri-Nations trophy having had it gather dust in the NZ trophy cabinet for so long! I dont think SA have a problem with that sentiment!
September 8th 2009 @ 10:11pm
QC said | September 8th 2009 @ 10:11pm | Report comment
Cats in a recent survey on Reunion (NZ version of All out Rugby) the Bledisloe was overwhelmingly valued higher than the Tri-Nations, I’m not saying the 3N is a dead rubber but there is something extra in Trans tasman battles no matter what the sport.
Sadly Cat when South Africa were blocked out of international rugby the rest of the world moved on, South Africa while the greatest foe before isolation, no longer hold that position. Australia has firmly taken hold of that mantle.
Like I said there is something special about a battle between the ANZACs, the matches have that little bit extra.
Whilst the 3N is still a fantastic tournament and I’d love to have the trophy sitting in the cabinet, if I had to choose I would take the Bledisloe no questions asked.
September 8th 2009 @ 11:57am
ohtani's jacket said | September 8th 2009 @ 11:57am | Report comment
OK, so Henry threw a surprise at us by naming Donald at second five, though I guess they may switch at various points (not that I like that strategy.)
Joe Rokocoko is still on the wing. Thomson and Toeava are back on the bench. I thought Henry said Toeava wasn’t in the running? No lock reserve pisses me off.
September 8th 2009 @ 12:06pm
Lee said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:06pm | Report comment
How many more chances does Toeva and Rokocoko need? I don’t subscribe to conspiracy theories but you have to seriously wonder if these two would still be around if they were not from Auckland.
Adam Thompson is a liability at international level, I know he is good at NPC and Super 14 but every game he plays for the ABs is never at the level expected, and he gives away penalties very cheaply.
September 8th 2009 @ 12:18pm
ohtani's jacket said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
Thomson is the Rocky Elsom that never was.
Henry is having a hard time letting Joe go, and Toeava has had his career ruined by being selected for the All Blacks when he was too young and playing rugby for a shambolic Auckland side.
September 8th 2009 @ 3:14pm
Jerry G said | September 8th 2009 @ 3:14pm | Report comment
It’s still early days for Thompson – I’d say he’d compare fairly closely to Rocky Elsom in his second season of test rugby (who I used to call Thicky Elsom as he just seemed to do the dumb thing and get penalised far too often).
September 8th 2009 @ 5:38pm
ohtani's jacket said | September 8th 2009 @ 5:38pm | Report comment
Maybe so, but what is he? A six or a seven? Why do we have two loose forwards on the bench? Stupid.
September 8th 2009 @ 12:03pm
Sam Taulelei said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:03pm | Report comment
Oh no, selecting two loose forwards and no lock on the bench. Is Henry trying to get too cute with his selections the same way we criticised Deans for earlier in the year. Every time I see Thorn or Ross go down on Saturday my heart will be in my mouth because moving Kaino into lock will seriously depower our scrum and weaken our lineout.
September 8th 2009 @ 12:08pm
Armchair-critic said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:08pm | Report comment
Particularly if Ross is injured.
As good a player as Brad Thorn is he is better known for his work around the field rather than at lineout time. And if Ross does go off who then takes over the lineout calls – i can’t see Thorn being particularly comfortable in this role. It is a big risk to take against the best lineout in the world and it also could diminish the dominance that the ABs will undoubtedly have at scrum time
September 8th 2009 @ 12:21pm
ohtani's jacket said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:21pm | Report comment
It’s a dumb, dumb, dumb move.
Surely there must be a lock in the ANZC who’s good enough to cover the bench. He may never make it onto the field like de Malmanche, but why take the risk?
Ross and Thorn have started every single Test this year from memory. Something’s bound to go twig.
Not happy.
September 8th 2009 @ 12:38pm
Sam Taulelei said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:38pm | Report comment
They already bent the rules for McAlister, they could have done the same for Chris Jack and drafted him into the squad as cover, pending release by Western Province.
September 8th 2009 @ 12:18pm
Sam Taulelei said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
Lee, I agree re: Thompson, his penchant for giving away penalties in light of the harsh reasons as to why Liam Messam was dumped doesn’t add up in my book. I still believe that Messam has more to offer the All Blacks than Thompson.
September 8th 2009 @ 12:26pm
Armchair-critic said | September 8th 2009 @ 12:26pm | Report comment
IMO Thompson is a good, even great, provincial player but he will never be a good international player.
Perhaps it is because of the open, free-running style of game he has. He is not suited to the tough demands of international loose-forward play and is often found out in the physical encounters.
September 8th 2009 @ 5:38pm
Mitch O said | September 8th 2009 @ 5:38pm | Report comment
The selectors don’t make selections on a whim (let’s exclude Toeava). Obviously Thompson’s stats stack up pretty well against the other options out there.
I think the Bok’s have fired all their shots and are pretty much doomed this weekend. The one qualifier is Owens who is capable of a suitably erratic reffing display, effectively reducing the game to a stop-start kickfest.
As for second row cover; obviously the AB’s don’t intend to kick it out – ever. Looking forward to more helter skelter running it out rom inside the 22…
September 8th 2009 @ 5:43pm
ohtani's jacket said | September 8th 2009 @ 5:43pm | Report comment
Who cares if they don’t aim to kick it out? You need locks for scrums. You need them to defend mauls. You need them in defence and at the breakdown. You need locks.
September 9th 2009 @ 7:47am
Mitch O said | September 9th 2009 @ 7:47am | Report comment
Kaino can cover the second row adequately enough at scrum time. As for rucks and mauls there’s not much difference between your 6 and your 5 and 4. They have a backup 6 on the bench. Not a major issue.
September 9th 2009 @ 9:14am
Hammer said | September 9th 2009 @ 9:14am | Report comment
How much of a risk is it really – when the chosen option has been Eaton sitting on the reserves bench anyway …. hardly someone who has set the world alight over recent seasons and was particularly poor when coming in the games in SA ..
September 8th 2009 @ 7:08pm
Ben J said | September 8th 2009 @ 7:08pm | Report comment
The Boks were off their game completely and coupled with good pressure play from Australia lost the plot in the second half. They must surely be tired but at this level it is not an excuse. The All Blacks must surely look to up the tempo, if they do that it could be a blowout.
September 8th 2009 @ 10:04pm
Cats said | September 8th 2009 @ 10:04pm | Report comment
……. I doubt it will be a blowout! Hopefull thinking??
Yes, granted the Boks have played extremely tough games over the last couple of months, but I reckon they will stand up to the AB’s – it wont be a walk over from either side though – I know the Boks have a HUGE amount of respect for the AB’s and will definately not undermine their ability to come full throttle on Saturday after a couple of weeks rest.
September 8th 2009 @ 11:26pm
Eagle said | September 8th 2009 @ 11:26pm | Report comment
My reading on reflection of what was wrong with the Boks in Brisbane:
1. Ndungane and Jacobs can’t chase like Pietersen and Habana. Few wings do and that has been part of the Bok success.
2. Pienaar is not experienced at fullback, and with Ndungane and Jacobs you have a back three very vulnarable to a kick and chase game, which is what Australia used to counter when Boks did not chase effectively.
3. The Bok loose forwards therefor had to retreat to the breakdown and did not get there timeously or in sufficient numbers.
4. Fourie du Preez was consequently taken out of the game at the ruck without the ball enough times to matter.
5. When the Boks went to maul the Wallabies where allowed to infringe as much as they wanted.
It is reported in SA today that PDV says the replacement wings did not chase and they need players who understand chasing in those positions. Obviously to me that made happy reading. (It was also interesting how early in the game Australia started to attack on Ndungane, both running wide to his wing and kicking on him.)
So, are the Boks a spent force? No. Thats the simple answer. But (A) they have to find a solution on the back three for both reasons 1 and 2 mentioned above. Plus (B) they need a referee who understands that the maul has been made part of rugby again and who will penalise offside players and players who play the halfback without the ball at ruck time.
I would venture that B will take care of itself, although I would think that a quiet conversation with the referee would be something that Peter should actually consider, just to make sure the referee agrees about the bleeding obvious.
As far as A is concerned I think this is a bit more difficult. First thing is we should pray that Habana can play 80 mins and secondly Frans Steyn should be at fullback. Who then on the other wing? Probably Pienaar, who has kicked and chased his own kicks many times, quite effectively. But I would not say this with any certainty as the politicians are already threatening PDV in South Africa because he is selecting too few black players.
Those blind bats (the politicians) refuse to see how many black people are suddenly walking around the streets wearing Springbok tshirts and jerseys because we are winning…. They have no grasp about how success (of the 7′s and the 15′s teams) is the greatest catalyst for developing rugby among the 40 million strong black south africans and already is doing. Kids are coming through very nicely all around the provinces at age group level (u19-u21).
Each nations has its challenges.
So lets just hope we can look forward to a great game of rugby on Saturday.
September 9th 2009 @ 8:58am
van der Merwe said | September 9th 2009 @ 8:58am | Report comment
I’d actually prefer Ndungane the quota over Pienaar (who, at this stage, is pretty clueless and appears disinterested). de Villiers should never have dropped Steyn in the first place.
September 9th 2009 @ 3:44pm
Sam Taulelei said | September 9th 2009 @ 3:44pm | Report comment
Great post Eagle, really good stuff.