Will SANZAR treat NH tours seriously?

Roar Guru

By pothale, 15 Sep 2009 Pot Hale is a Roar Guru

Tagged:: 6 Nations, Grand Slam tour, Rugby Union

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Robbie Deans has stated that he intends casting his net wider across Australian rugby in preparing his squad for the upcoming Grand Slam tour in Europe.

He will look at players from club level and consider new developing players for bolstering his squad in advance of WC 2011.

It’s clear that Graham Henry has some work to do, and no doubt the New Zealand squad travelling north this November will have a few new faces.

Of the three Southern Hemisphere nations, Peter de Villiers is the coach sitting most comfortably. He has talked previously about the strength in depth of the Boks squad, albeit they were found wanting in the third Lions Test earlier this year.

So how do fellow Roarers view the upcoming matches, and how do they rate their teams’ chances?

And those of the Northern Hemisphere competitors?

More recent comments on here would suggest that the Southern Hemisphere whitewash of last year (Wales excepted) won’t be so easily repeated this time round.

The clean sweep executed by the All Blacks last November seemed to be a racing certainty before they’d even landed on European soil.

With New Zealand heading for a battle with Australia for the Tri Nations wooden spoon, Graham Henry might be more circumspect about his team’s chances in seven weeks time.

Will he view it as a chance to develop the team, and attempt to persuade the All Blacks fanatical supporters in advance that development of players is more important than achieving an expected 100 percent record?

Australia have dubbed their tour of Europe as a Grand Slam tour – so the expectations are set before they’ve hopped on a plane.

Some commentators on here would believe that the standard of the top three in the IRB table is still well ahead of the rest. So how do they view this tour?

As for South Africa, will Peter De Villiers and his men carry a public expectation that they should sweep all before them, as they have done in the Tri Nations?

Or do they treat the tour as a developmental one that allows them to claim it as a preparation exercise for the World Cup?

Argentina are also touring the Northern Hemisphere, and the recent news that they have an opportunity to be part of a four nation competition in 2012 might give their players some heart and additional motivation.

Finally, Fiji are also batting on behalf of the Southern Hemisphere.

Some might regard them as easy fodder for the Northern Hemisphere teams, others might look to their World Cup performances and see a couple of surprise victories on the cards.

Italy, England, Wales, Scotland, France and Ireland are looking forward to the tours to give them a health and status check before they begin the new Six Nations tournament, and with a longer-term eye on their readiness for the World Cup.

By end of November, could the two and three spots on the IRB table have different names against them?

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The Crowd Says (69) | Page 1 of Comments

grahamcreid said | September 15th 2009 @ 12:57am | Report comment

I think it is dangerous to use the Lions tour as a barometer of the North, but I would look at France winning in NZ as a better reflection of some stength in the NH. It’s been a long time since I’ve had the impression that the SH is well above the NH in terms of skill, but it seems that it could be now.

I’m itching to see how England get on. I’m still very unconvinced by the side (and selections) that were made in the Nov Internationals last year, as well as the Six Nations. Looking at their players, I would say they still have a way to go before they can be considered anywhere near the force they have been.

Wales seem to be a reflection of the All Blacks up here, and the match at the Millennium Stadium will be a fantastic game to see.

The problem is that the top players in the game are still all in SH. Watching pretenders like Ferris compete with the likes of McCaw or Broussow is going to be mouthwatering. Do we really have to wait until November?!

I eluded to the fact that sending second string sides in any case is a bad idea, it does nothing to promote the game. But on the other hand – Boks in particular – is it fair on their players to raise themselves to the same intensity after a Lions Tour and a Tri-Nations?

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ohtani's jacket said | September 15th 2009 @ 1:14am | Report comment

It’s difficult to answer this question without knowing the result of the final Tri-Nations game, but from an All Black perspective, I would rather see the All Blacks bleed new players and struggle to win Test matches than carry on with the current lot.

The problem with that is unlike in 2001, say, the All Blacks have won a fair bit lately and the NZ public won’t accept too many more losses. Henry may have the NZRU’s support now, but even mixed results on tour would strain that relationship. Negative results would be somewhat disastrous, so I expect the All Blacks to take this tour seriously.

I’d like to see a repeat of the 2004 tour with the same result over France, but Henry was still in his grace period back then. He’s a guy who will never live down 2007 unless he leads the All Blacks to a WC in 2011 and to that (I mean to even be in the position to do that) he needs some positive results on tour.

Australia will gun for the Grand Slam. They need some kind of result or achievement to show they’re heading in the right direction.

South Africa I imagine will take the tour about as seriously as they always do, which isn’t much. I doubt they’re overly concerned about the results and may sweep anyway.

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- Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 1:32am | Report comment
  
  I think it’s worthwhile a lot of All Blacks taking a break. Two years out is the perfect time to allow Woodcock, Williams, So’oialo, McCaw, Carter and Muliaina a long off-season and a chance to recuperate mentally as much as anything. I don’t see what’s problematic with Henry giving players like O. Franks, Ross, Thomson, Latimer, Read, Donald, Jane etc a chance to create something away from the presence of the stalwarts.
  
  I think that SA has always taken the Autumn tests seriously, it’s just that they have found teams with packs as big as theirs in Europe, and teams willing to slog it out with them on a soggy playing surface, plus aside from the past 16 months they have always had a very poor away record in all competitions. When White’s understrength side won at Twickenham a few years ago the SA players nearly had a group hear attack.
  
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  - ohtani's jacket said | September 15th 2009 @ 1:37am | Report comment
    
    It’s a nice idea in theory, but would’ve worked better if they’d won the Tri-Nations. I definitely think they’ll rotate the squad, but it’ll be another one of those situations where young players get blooded in the lesser Tests aren’t seen from again.
    
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    - Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 1:50am | Report comment
      
      Anybody specific? I seriously think that Henry and co should use the tour to actually play specific alternative players in every single game, and in their favoured position. NZ has had too big a big player turnover in recent years.
      
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Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 1:41am | Report comment

Pothale,

I think any chance of European domination (or at least parity) is going to be seriously undermined by injury. Wales will likely be missing Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones and Martyn Williams, and England will probably be missing Flutey and Delon Armitage, two of their playmakers. For those two nations they will not get an opportunity to continue to develop the playing processes that their respective coaches have been gradually introducing over the past two years. The only positive is the time scale. Two years out from a WC is a good opportunity to assess different players, especially in such key positions.

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grahamcreid said | September 15th 2009 @ 1:50am | Report comment

There are options at full-back. England could do much worse than Ben Foden/Nick Abendanon/Olly Morgan. Armitage is probably better than these three, and does offer a kicking option, but it might not just be the SH teams blooding new players.

Wales will need to look at how to replace Williams at some point – losing two thirds of their front row is going to hurt them. It will be interesting to see how their back fare when their scrum isn’t producing the same sort of ball that they might have become a bit used to. Saying that, the other NH teams have been strong in the scrum area.

The Wales/NZ game will probably be a chance to see the more free-flowing forwards. Isaac Ross has been brilliant in the 3N in the loose, and is someone I’m looking forward to seeing. I think we’ll see Carter featuring, given his lack of real game time in the pressure cooker.

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- Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 2:00am | Report comment
  
  I don’t see the main issue being the necessity to call up another player, because it’s a good time to see what other players have to offer, more the fact that England has lost two of the backline spine of the team, and two players who have been involved right from the very beginning of Johnson’s reign. Brian Smith’s tactics demand experience, i.e. the systems that we saw beginning to click in the 6N. If Flutey and D. Armitage do miss the tests then essentially the back division (most likely with Wilkinson at 10) is beginning from scratch with a whole new midfield line-up (Tindall is once more on the physician’s bench). That isn’t good news, especially with a lack of variety in the 12 jersey.
  
  Losing Williams will be a massive loss to Wales. I know that Gatland is insisting that he will make the 2011 WC but a good showing in these tests would be big for such a callow side. Maybe his absence will be a blessing in disguise, maybe it won’t be a blessing in disguise. Losing Adam Jones will be a massive blow too. I used to be a big critic of his but I would firmly argue that over the past 18 months he has developed into the world’s premier tighthead.
  
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pothale said | September 15th 2009 @ 3:40am | Report comment

So who do you think England have a chance of playing and beating from their Autumn Internationals then, KO?

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- Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 4:12am | Report comment
  
  With all the sincerity I can muster I’m going to have to take the 5th until the squads of all the appropriate sides are released. That said, just for you I’ll take a blind guess and offer that England SHOULD beat Australia and Argentina.
  
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Viscount Crouchback said | September 15th 2009 @ 5:42am | Report comment

I expect England to be brutal this Autumn. The Australians should pack their shin-pads.

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pothale said | September 15th 2009 @ 6:40am | Report comment

I don’t think England will be alone on that one VC.

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England have Australia as their first match – which favours Australia in my view – they’ll have played their fourth Bledisloe a week previous and be up and running again. Absent players like Flutey and Armitage, they will struggle in the backline. The match-up at scrum-time is going to be interesting. However, you’re right to reserve judgement – in that it will depend on who Deans takes with him, and who he fields on the day. Methinks England are looking for revenge and will get it.

Scotland will not front up sufficiently, but Danielli, Lamont and the two Evans lads might give them a few headaches.

It goes without saying that Ireland should beat Australia comfortably – unless Kidney decides to get very experimental. A few new heads need a run out, so Aus might get the victory if they put out their top team. Possibly. Just. Maybe.

In the final match, Wales have more talent in their backline, but the absence of A Jones, G Jenkins and M Williams will take its toll. Phillps, S Jones and Roberts will enjoy re-forming their Lions partnership, but if the Aussies take the SA route (heaven forbid) then they could redress the loss of last year.

SA will figure they can get in and out of Europe with PdV using his strength in depth squad – and hope they can get by without pulling out the full throttle. France and Ireland will give them a rude awakening – SA losing to both of them possibly. Italy will provide some consolation fodder as the watercress in the sandwich.

Argentina might do the best with victories over England and Wales not beyond their capability.

Fiji could well take Scotland and depending on Kidney’s approach to the team for the Aus and SA matches either side of it, could beat Ireland as well.

So by end of year, SA head home wearing a slightly tilted crown as #1 team, Aus will wish the term Grand Slam had never been invented , and Argentina will be a happy bunch.

Everyone else agree with me, I presume?

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- Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 6:50am | Report comment
  
  Yes, I suppose I do. Although, the post-Lions hangover is always a factor that can’t be assessed this early.
  
  I’m genuinely worried that the absence of Flutey and Armitage will seriously, seriously undermine England’s chances of success. If there is a lack of challengers for D’Arcy’s jersey in Ireland then the same is true of the inside midfield in England.
  
  There is talk of Gethin Jenkins being fit, but he, IMO, is a very mediocre scrummager. Adam Jones is the glue that binds the Welsh pack, and neither Yapp or Rhys Thomas are heavyweight scrummagers in the 3 shirt.
  
  I’m very interested to see how SA cope for myriad reasons: firstly, their pack struggled badly last season on their tour; secondly, Frans Steyn and Jean de Villiers will be absent; thirdly, because SA has a poor away record (recently anyhow) against France and Ireland.
  
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- Lee said | September 15th 2009 @ 6:52am | Report comment
  
  Don’t think the Boks will lose to Ireland but possibly France. The Boks will be up for the Irish game after their last two visits there – and seen as Paul Honis is retired they should be able to beat Ireland. France I am not so sure about?
  
  What are your thoughts on the Kiwis? Their confidence is down and I think they might get some close games.
  
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  - Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 6:55am | Report comment
    
    ‘and seen as Paul Honis is retired they should be able to beat Ireland.’
    
    Oh oh..
    
    ‘What are your thoughts on the Kiwis? Their confidence is down and I think they might get some close games.’
    
    That’s what people thought this time last year and they blew everyone off the park.
    
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    - Lee said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:02am | Report comment
      
      Their confidence was hardly down last year, they had won the Tri Nations and retained the Bledisloe.
      
      Sorry couldn’t resist the dig at Honis, I don’t like complaining about refs but that was the worst bit of reffing I can remember.
      
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      - Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:04am | Report comment
        
        And they’ll have the Bledisloe this year as well. The NZ side of last year was hardly held as a vintage side and yet they were the only 3N side to completely impose themselves onto the NH.
        
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        Lee said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:10am | Report comment
        
        But last year they hadn’t lost to the Boks 3 games in a row – I think alot will depend on the next 2 games against the Wallabies.
        
        Granted about them being the only 3N teams to impose themselves – the Kiwis usually seem to have that knock out punch when they are winning that I think the Boks don’t possess.
pothale said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:01am | Report comment

Wales v New Zealand – NZ
Italy v Nz – NZ
England v NZ – Eng
France v Nz – France
Baa-baas v Nz – NZ

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- Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:02am | Report comment
  
  You’d get some good odds for that, but not my money to bet with.
  
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  - Lee said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:06am | Report comment
    
    I’d be tempted to go for Wales and France to beat NZ but don’t think they will lose to England!
    
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pothale said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:14am | Report comment

England are going to do really well this coming season – something just tells me. Wales are going to go backwards even further.
Ireland have to find, play and settle three new first squad players – 1, 3 and 10. And win at least 3/5 with one of those England or France.

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- Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:22am | Report comment
  
  I can see the opposite happening, Pothale. A Welsh back line galvanised by the Lions performances of Phillips, S. Jones and Roberts allied to the injury free (and thus revitalised) Halfpenny and Shanklin spells trouble, methinks.
  
  Wilkinson should make a difference to England but I can’t say he has a great deal too work with outside him. I don’t think the composition of the EPS back division is varied or dangerous enough to threaten a team like NZ, or perhaps anybody else for that matter.
  
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  - pothale said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:56am | Report comment
    
    Hmmm – I presume you didn’t purposely leave out Williams or Byrne. Yeah – they’ve got a good line-up in the backline, no doubt. The Irish/Welsh game will be a good one in Croker next year.
    
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    - Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:59am | Report comment
      
      I forgot about those mushes. Ireland and Wales do have very good backs.
      
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      - grahamcreid said | September 15th 2009 @ 8:56am | Report comment
        
        I don’t think Wales are going backwards. They are still ahead of England when they have a fully fit side. As long as Johnson persists in picking overrated, experienced players, England aren’t going to go forward. What does Simon Shaw have to do to convince someone he should be in there as a token ‘experienced’ gun?
        
        Kennedy is better in the lineout than Borthwick (and didn’t even make the squad?!), and with someone like Kay in there, we have RWC winning experience too. Steffon Armitage has been brilliant in club rugby, and has begun where he left off last season (despite his side struggling on the whole). This year will be a potential make-or-break for a lot of England’s young pretenders. Wait….didn’t I start this post talking about Wales?
        
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        pothale said | September 15th 2009 @ 9:05am | Report comment
        
        See what I mean. Wales may be higher, but are resting on a plateau. England will climb this year – with the right picks.
Knives Out said | September 15th 2009 @ 7:19am | Report comment

‘But last year they hadn’t lost to the Boks 3 games in a row – I think alot will depend on the next 2 games against the Wallabies.

Granted about them being the only 3N teams to impose themselves – the Kiwis usually seem to have that knock out punch when they are winning that I think the Boks don’t possess.’

No, but they did lose to them at home. I simply think that NZ struggles with the SA gameplan. The only UK teams to utilise the rush defence are Wales and France (on occasion), but neither of those teams possesses a kicker like Morne Steyn or Fourie du Preez, so NZ can simply outmanoeuvre the larger European packs that SA traditionally tend to struggle with.

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