Preliminary Final Preview: Geelong Vs Western Bulldogs

Geelong’s form in the latter half of the season was far from convincing – all four of their losses for the year came in the last 10 weeks of the home-and-away season and three of their wins during that period were by less than a goal.

But the Cats clicked into top gear in the first week of the finals, accounting for the Western Bulldogs by 14 points to earn the weeks off. The Magpies bounced back from back-to-back losses to the Western Bulldogs in round 22 then St Kilda in a qualifying final with a thrilling five-point win over Adelaide at the MCG last Saturday night.

MEDICAL ROOM:
Geelong welcomes back classy forward Steve Johnson and rugged utility Max Rooke back from hip and quad injuries respectively but Mathew Stokes (groin soreness) will miss. Matthew Egan (foot), Josh Hunt (knee), Ranga Ediriwickrama (hamstring), Mitch Brown (leg) and Scott Simpson (leg) are out for the season. For the Magpies, midfielder Scott Pendlebury returns from a fractured fibula sustained in the loss the Saints but veteran Anthony Rocca (ankle) remains on the sidelines. Dayne Beams and number one ruckman Josh Fraser who missed the win over the Crows with calf and knee injuries respectively have been named as emergencies. Untried youngster Tristan Francis is the only other player on the club’s injury list.

KEY MATCH-UPS: Cameron Ling vs. Dane Swan

Swan was among his side’s best last weekend with 28 disposals.

The Brownlow medal fancy has averaged a league-best 31 touches per game this season and is third for total inside 50’s and fifth for total goal-scoring assists.

Geelong will be keen to shut-down the drive Swan provides through the middle of the ground as it will help starve them starve the Magpies’ forwards of quality supply.

Ling is regarded as the best midfield stopper in the AFL and will be given the job of tagging Swan in what shapes as being a pivotal duel in determining the outcome of this match.

Not only will Ling make Swan earn every possession he will also try and hurt him going the other way – the Cats tagger has averaged just under 23 possessions per game in 2009 and is a reliable kick for goal.

Collingwood will need Swan to work hard going both ways.

Ben Johnson vs. Gary Ablett

Ablett was instrumental in the Cats’ win over Collinwood in round three with a game-high 37 possessions and one goal.

Shutting down Ablett’s creative run will be a key for the Magpies if they are going to contain a Geelong outfit that is capable of scoring heavily.

Johnson has been given some big run with roles this season and will most likely be given the unenviable task of trying to quell the influence of Ablett.

It is vital for the Magpies that Johnson is proactive and pushes forward and kicks goals as it will force Ablett be accountable which in turn will help limit his impact on the contest as a damaging midfielder.

If Johnson is reactive the Brownlow medal favourite will be able to dictate terms and dominate.

Matthew Scarlett vs. John Anthony

Anthony may have been the hero last weekend, booting a goal with just 20 seconds left on the clock to seal a memorable win for Collingwoodbut it was his only major for the night.

The Magpies will need Anthony to be a bigger contributor on Saturday night if they are going to have any hope of kicking a big enough score to get into their first grand final since 2003.

However, his task won’t be an easy one as he will be matched up by the All-Australian full-back in Scarlett.

The Pies will need to be smart with their use of the football going forward and not just bomb it haphazardly inside 50 otherwise they will be punished on the rebound by the likes of Scarlett who racked up 30 possessions in the win over the Bulldogs.

Harry O’Brien vs. Steve Johnson

Johnson hasn’t played since round 20 but he still looms as a danger man for Collingwood because he is such a classy player who is capable of turning a game on its head with a quick burst of brilliance.

O’Brien has the ability to match Johnson in the air and at ground level so you would expect him to be given first crack at the Geelong star.

In the Magpies’ crushing 86-point win over in round nine last year they suffocated Geelong’s run with their relentless pressure – they applied a staggering 85 tackles for the game.

They will need to play with the same level of intensity on Saturday night otherwise the likes of Johnson will get enough quality supply from the midfield to have an impact.

VERDICT: Collingwood knows what it takes to defeat Geelong but there is a major question mark over whether or not they have enough left in the tank to carry out such a high-intensity game plan after spending plenty of petrol tickets in the come-from-behind win over Adelaide. We expect the Magpies to be competitive early before the classier and fresher Cats run away with the contest after half-time. Cats by 38 points.

GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD
GEELONG
B: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Corey Enright
HB: Tom Harley, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: Joel Corey, Cameron Ling, James Kelly
HF: Jimmy Bartel, Cameron Mooney, Steve Johnson
F: Travis Varcoe, Tom Hawkins, Paul Chapman
Foll: Mark Blake, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett
I/C: Brad Ottens, Shannon Byrnes, Max Rooke, David Wojcinski
Emg: Shane Mumford, Simon Hogan, Ryan Gamble

In: Johnson, Rooke
Out: Mathew Stokes (groin soreness), Simon Hogan

COLLINGWOOD
B: Harry O’Brien, Simon Prestigiacomo, Leigh Brown
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Tarkyn Lockyer
C: Scott Pendlebury, Shane O’Bree, Brad Dick
HF: Alan Toovey, Travis Cloke, Ben Johnson
F: Alan Didak, John Anthony, Dale Thomas
Foll: Cameron Wood, Dane Swan, Leon Davis
I/C: Brent Macaffer, Tyson Goldsack, Steele Sidebottom, Sharrod Wellingham
Emg: Dayne Beams, Martin Clarke, Josh Fraser

In: Pendlebury
Out: Paul Medhurst

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