By Michael DiFabrizio
September 24th 2009 @ 6:35am
It’ll be the Cats by 6 in a thrilling Grand Final
Jimmy Bartel of Geelong marks ahead of Adam Schneider of St Kilda. Slattery Images
Here it is. The game we’ve been waiting for. A goal with around a minute left was all that separated Geelong and St Kilda back in round 14. Nearly three months on, they’re set for a re-match – only the stakes this time are much, much higher.
This time they’re not playing for bragging rights. They are playing for the premiership.
St Kilda came up trumps in their game last week with a tight seven-point win over the Western Bulldogs. Geelong had an easier run a night later, overcoming Collingwood by 73 points. Both sides, it seems, got what they would have wanted out of their respective preliminary finals.
The Saints got the perfect tune-up for the big one. Their thriller will give them an indication of areas that need some work, much like Geelong’s near-loss two years ago did for that side.
The Cats got the kind of win they haven’t had in some time. Their dominant display – reminiscent of victories in 2007 and ’08 – will provide plenty of self-belief.
The stage is set for yet another epic clash between these two.
We’ve been schooled all year on what makes St Kilda so good. It’s their ability to win the contested footy. It’s their ability to defensively ‘strangle’ opponents. It’s their pressure.
And it’s also their captain.
Riewoldt is shaping as one of the most important players in this game, simply because a strong showing from him goes a long way towards St Kilda securing a win. He’s kicked 77 goals this year, nine of which have come in the Saints’ two finals to date.
What may end up being equally important, however, is the performance of the other forwards.
Justin Koschitzke, Stephen Milne and Adam Schneider have registered just five goals between them so far in September, only one of which came last week. More output is needed from the trio on Saturday.
The Saints can’t get through the game with an unhealthy reliance on Riewoldt. Given how important his goals are, this could very well shape the result.
Down back, the defence must produce more of the same. Sam Fisher, Zac Dawson, Sam Gilbert, Jason Blake and Stephen Baker may have only combined for one Brownlow vote, but they do work incredibly well as a unit.
That’s part of the reason why the Saints have conceded the least amount of points of any team since the introduction of the 22-round season. And why they out-marked the Dogs 33-8 in the defensive 50 last week.
The Cats are a brilliant side who have been at the top of the pack for three seasons now thanks to their slick ball movement and quality around the park. They’ve got a superb midfield and a strong backline.
But one of their biggest criticisms this year has been their forwards.
Much has been said of Cameron Mooney’s ‘yips’ kicking at goal and young Tom Hawkins’ lack of presence and confidence. The long-term absence of ruckman Brad Ottens as a third-option tall, and niggling injuries to Paul Chapman and Steve Johnson, complicated matters further.
In round 14, such was the plight, there was a reliance on defenders pushing up the ground to score goals. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since, though.
Mooney is still a concern, but he isn’t as off his game as mid-season. Hawkins has been far more active and involved of late. Ottens and Johnson – who didn’t play in that mid-season game – are both back. And they are having a real impact. Chapman, meanwhile, bagged five goals last week.
The changes will, at the very least, avoid the round 14 situation.
Those defenders will have a busy enough afternoon as it is. Harry Taylor should start on Riewoldt. He can claim big scalps, but does on occasion succumb to nerves. A lot is riding on his efforts, as the Cats won’t want to see Matthew Scarlett having to push up the ground to take Riewoldt.
The battle in the middle of the park is seemingly impossible to split.
Whilst the hit-outs may end up swaying in the Cats’ favour, the Saints’ rucks should do better around the ground.
And just like that famous round 14 encounter, watching the likes of Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna and Clint Jones throwing themselves at Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and Cameron Ling – and vice versa – will be fantastic and enthralling.
But determining the team that will win the midfield isn’t easy.
Heck, right now, determining the team that will win full-stop isn’t easy. They’ve been locked into positions one and two on the ladder since round 4.
Geelong has an added advantage with their prior grand final experience. The predicted wet and windy weather should also help them out.
St Kilda will hate to let such a brilliant season end with a loss and they do go into the game with an extra day’s rest.
But the Cats might be just too much to overcome, so I’m going tip a reverse of the round 14 result. Geelong by six.
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(33)
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 8:09am | Report comment
Pretty much everyone other than Saints fans are picking Geelong.
The only negative I can think of is whether the win against Collingwood was a little too easy – the Saints had to fight hard till the end for their win, which was pretty good preparation for a grand final.
On the other hand, Geelong was a bit more business liike in the manner in which it celebrated its win – knowing full well that there was another week to go – the Saints appeared overjoyed at having made the grand final.
Redb said | September 24th 2009 @ 8:09am | Report comment
Agree Cats by 6. The first quarter will be unbeleivable in terms of intensity and pressure by the end of the game it will be the last man standing and I think Geelong’s midfield of Ablett, Bartel, Ling and Selwood will have the edge in class to get them home.
2 more sleeps.
Redb
Kurt said | September 24th 2009 @ 8:36am | Report comment
The Saints have the best defence in the league, the best key forward, a tough, skilled midfield, a top coach and have clearly been the best team all year. Once again however group think has taken over and everyone is tipping the Cats based solely upon the prelim final results.
Saints by four goals, Cats to choke again, Mooney to kick 2.9 and Gazza to hurl himself from the top of the scoreboard after missing out on the Norm Smith yet again.
Redb said | September 24th 2009 @ 8:53am | Report comment
the only part I agree with is Mooney
Tom said | September 24th 2009 @ 9:38am | Report comment
I agree with a lot of that, but I think the Cats have been the better team in the finals, which is why I’m narrowly backing them.
onside said | September 24th 2009 @ 9:42am | Report comment
Agree .Cats by six……………..goals!
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 9:50am | Report comment
heh, heh – if Mooney kicks 6.3 rather than 2.9, you might be right!!
Art Sapphire said | September 24th 2009 @ 10:20am | Report comment
Forecast for Saturday – Cloudy. Scattered showers with local hail or thunder possible in the afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 35 km/h tending west to southwesterly during the afternoon. Min 8 Max 15
Therefore I conclude the winning score will be 8.15 – 63
The Saints to win just for the reason that I know quite a few StKilda social club members and I have felt sorry for them from the time the Bombers beat them for 20 odd consecutive matches.
Riewoldt to kick the winning point ala 1966.
onside said | September 24th 2009 @ 10:32am | Report comment
Reads like a beach day in Wellington.How’d ya reckon the Wallabies would go against the Cats
Michael C said | September 24th 2009 @ 8:57pm | Report comment
hmmm, speaking of Wellington, down to the Shire of Wellington and Maffra won the WestGippyLatrobe GF last weekend, I think over Traralgon who kicked 9.12.66, and Maffra??…they went via the ruddy Cape to get the chocolates……7.27.69
…..now, should Mooeny et al have a bad day at the radar console, then, 7.27 might be on the cards on Saturday arvo.
Bruce Walkley said | September 24th 2009 @ 10:23am | Report comment
Yes, Cats by 6 – goals.
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 10:24am | Report comment
Could end up being a very scrappy affair under those conditions.
8.15 might be a pretty good prediction of the winning score.
Redb said | September 24th 2009 @ 11:58am | Report comment
If the St Klda v Bulldogs game is any guide in terms of tight defensive tussles, a low score in those conditions is very likely.
Republican said | September 24th 2009 @ 12:01pm | Report comment
The Cats in a runaway anti climactical cricket score me thinks.
The Saints have lost any attacking flair shown in their mid season form especially v Geelong in July’s cracker.
They have battoned down the hatches playing Swannies style negative footy which may have worked in the last few rounds against lesser opposition but it wont hold up v a very good Geelong attack.
If however St Kilda play positive attacking footy, they may just get across the line. I also have a preminition that Riewoldt will struggle to play more than a quarter of footy due to his fraught knee.
Go the mighty Saints!
sheek said | September 24th 2009 @ 1:11pm | Report comment
Yeah, I reckon the Cats to win. I think they are in better form going into the GF, really hitting their straps & they are still pissed off with their slack-arsed attitude from last year’s GF. They know they threw 2008 away.
The Saints appear a bit flat & might be just off the edge of optimum, which will also help the Cats. I think there will be close to nothing in it for the first 3 quarters, perhaps continuing half way into the last quarter. Then the Cats will pull away.
The Saints best hope is to build up a big lead early, then try to hang on. But I don’t think the Cats will allow them that luxury. I think the Saints are physically hurting, & sometime early in the last quarter, the team will collectively “hit the wall”.
Redb said | September 24th 2009 @ 2:02pm | Report comment
Sheek,
I think the Saints look a little tired as well. Last quarter fitness will determine this game IMO and the Saints have not looked at their best since Round 14. The so called ‘frontal pressure’ has dropped off and to be honest they are a 4 goal better side than the Bulldogs and could not put them away even with an extra weeks rest up their sleave.
Geelong played like a team hitting form and fitness in their prelim.
I’d like St Kilda to win but just cant see Geelong being beaten based on last week (up until then was definitely not convinced about the Cats)
Redb
Brett McKay said | September 24th 2009 @ 1:17pm | Report comment
if there’s less than a goal in it, I won’t mind who wins…
ren said | September 24th 2009 @ 1:47pm | Report comment
saints by 10 points with reiwoldt to kick 5 and bag himself a norm smith
Redb said | September 24th 2009 @ 2:03pm | Report comment
Reiwoldt is a champ no doubt about it and the key if St Kilda are to win.
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 2:23pm | Report comment
What we wouldn’t mind seeing this weekend:
Rooke making defenders think twice:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FAx5j30zVk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FAx5j30zVk
Smother from Selwood in the middle of the ground ends up with Stokes scoring:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgsfA0K5h1U&feature=related
A goal within 9 seconds of the ball up from Ablett:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-hteyK3LY4
About a dozen Saints touch the ball for this goal, with first class crumbing from Milne:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIXJiODc5Q0&feature=related
A towering grab from Gardiner to win the game:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyVQMK7Hiac
hazey.the.bear said | September 24th 2009 @ 4:49pm | Report comment
Pip,
If you substitute a few names, you could come up with details of the recent Eagles/Swans classics:
Beau Waters making defenders twice
Smother from Chick ends up with Hunter scoring
A score within 15 seconds from the ball up from Goodes
A towering grab from Barry to win the game
* I couldn’t come up with anything for “About a dozen Saints touch the ball for this goal, with first class crumbing from Milne” off the top of my head, but I’m sure there’s a similar scenario in there somewhere
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 4:54pm | Report comment
…well, let’s hope there’s at least one towering mark.
hazey.the.bear said | September 24th 2009 @ 4:59pm | Report comment
In terms of the context of a game, I don’t think anything can take away from Leo’s grab in 2005…But it’d be nice if the teams gave it a go, eh?
Tifosi said | September 24th 2009 @ 6:00pm | Report comment
With the weather set to be pretty awful by all accounts, does anyone know the results of both teams playing in the wet this year?
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 6:12pm | Report comment
Well, Geelong play at Kardinia Park, and St Kilda generaly play under the roof – so I reckon Geelong would have the natural advantage.
Also, St Kilda places a great reliance on Riewoldt and Kossie taking contested marks in the forward 50 – if they have the elements to contend with, on top of what’s already a pretty good defence, St Kilda might be history.
Riewoldt took 7 contested marks last weekend, and the Bullies only took 12 in total – so when you have a go-to player like that, it means that it’s not coming straight back at you as often, and that’s worth plenty.
But I’m thinking he will be less influential this weekend – and that might be the ball game.
hazey.the.bear said | September 24th 2009 @ 6:41pm | Report comment
I dunno Pip……
I remember when the Saints took on Sydney last year (at least, I think it was last year), and the weather was atrocious, and everyone was tipping the Swans to win in that weather because it was their strength…But the Saints beat the Swans at their own game (to the genuine surprise of everyone)…
I think that was the same round as Angus Monfries’ “hollywood” banana kick (when they lost to the Hawks) – Maybe Redb remembers that one a little better….
ren said | September 24th 2009 @ 6:51pm | Report comment
but they both train outdoors, and i’d suspect that more of the skills training would be done at morrabin for the sainters, especially given the state of docklands
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 7:10pm | Report comment
Good points – but it has to be admitted that playing under the roof (and a ground as hard as cement) is a completely different game to playing on a ground open to the elements.
Michael C said | September 24th 2009 @ 9:00pm | Report comment
was it a tad slippery down in Launceston when the Saints (with their weakest possible on paper line up) got over Hawthorn??
Pippinu said | September 24th 2009 @ 11:02pm | Report comment
Yes – Hawks were a bit flakey this year.
Jaffa said | September 24th 2009 @ 10:57pm | Report comment
Saints to win by a kick or two – they have set the standard for the whole season , and have the necessary mental toughness. Geelong remains brittle in front of goal. They blew Collingwood off the park last week in the last two quarters, but the Pies were shot ducks after the epic struggle agianst the Crows so a blowout was always on the cards.The tough graft against the Doggies will have focussed The Saints’ minds nicely for the task ahead.
It will be vital for Kozzie, Hayes et al to make a maximum contribution but Riewoldt will be the matchwinner – my pick for the Norm Smith medal
Redb said | September 25th 2009 @ 8:25am | Report comment
Weather stills looks ordinary. In typical Melbourne fashion we will have sunshine in the morning, showers early afternoon and if we were lucky a full blown thunderstorm by half time.
One more sleep.
Redb
gazz said | September 25th 2009 @ 6:08pm | Report comment
I cant tip this one at all. I think if it is ordinary weather that favours the Saints. Lower scores, sloppier skills. Saints for me, by 3 goals.