It’ll be the Cats by 6 in a thrilling Grand Final

 
Michael DiFabrizio Columnist

By , 24 Sep 2009 Michael DiFabrizio is a Roar Expert

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Jimmy Bartel of Geelong marks ahead of Adam Schneider of St Kilda. Slattery Images

Jimmy Bartel of Geelong marks ahead of Adam Schneider of St Kilda. Slattery Images

Here it is. The game we’ve been waiting for. A goal with around a minute left was all that separated Geelong and St Kilda back in round 14. Nearly three months on, they’re set for a re-match – only the stakes this time are much, much higher.

This time they’re not playing for bragging rights. They are playing for the premiership.

St Kilda came up trumps in their game last week with a tight seven-point win over the Western Bulldogs. Geelong had an easier run a night later, overcoming Collingwood by 73 points. Both sides, it seems, got what they would have wanted out of their respective preliminary finals.

The Saints got the perfect tune-up for the big one. Their thriller will give them an indication of areas that need some work, much like Geelong’s near-loss two years ago did for that side.

The Cats got the kind of win they haven’t had in some time. Their dominant display – reminiscent of victories in 2007 and ’08 – will provide plenty of self-belief.

The stage is set for yet another epic clash between these two.

We’ve been schooled all year on what makes St Kilda so good. It’s their ability to win the contested footy. It’s their ability to defensively ‘strangle’ opponents. It’s their pressure.

And it’s also their captain.

Riewoldt is shaping as one of the most important players in this game, simply because a strong showing from him goes a long way towards St Kilda securing a win. He’s kicked 77 goals this year, nine of which have come in the Saints’ two finals to date.

What may end up being equally important, however, is the performance of the other forwards.

Justin Koschitzke, Stephen Milne and Adam Schneider have registered just five goals between them so far in September, only one of which came last week. More output is needed from the trio on Saturday.

The Saints can’t get through the game with an unhealthy reliance on Riewoldt. Given how important his goals are, this could very well shape the result.

Down back, the defence must produce more of the same. Sam Fisher, Zac Dawson, Sam Gilbert, Jason Blake and Stephen Baker may have only combined for one Brownlow vote, but they do work incredibly well as a unit.

That’s part of the reason why the Saints have conceded the least amount of points of any team since the introduction of the 22-round season. And why they out-marked the Dogs 33-8 in the defensive 50 last week.

The Cats are a brilliant side who have been at the top of the pack for three seasons now thanks to their slick ball movement and quality around the park. They’ve got a superb midfield and a strong backline.

But one of their biggest criticisms this year has been their forwards.

Much has been said of Cameron Mooney’s ‘yips’ kicking at goal and young Tom Hawkins’ lack of presence and confidence. The long-term absence of ruckman Brad Ottens as a third-option tall, and niggling injuries to Paul Chapman and Steve Johnson, complicated matters further.

In round 14, such was the plight, there was a reliance on defenders pushing up the ground to score goals. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since, though.

Mooney is still a concern, but he isn’t as off his game as mid-season. Hawkins has been far more active and involved of late. Ottens and Johnson – who didn’t play in that mid-season game – are both back. And they are having a real impact. Chapman, meanwhile, bagged five goals last week.

The changes will, at the very least, avoid the round 14 situation.

Those defenders will have a busy enough afternoon as it is. Harry Taylor should start on Riewoldt. He can claim big scalps, but does on occasion succumb to nerves. A lot is riding on his efforts, as the Cats won’t want to see Matthew Scarlett having to push up the ground to take Riewoldt.

The battle in the middle of the park is seemingly impossible to split.

Whilst the hit-outs may end up swaying in the Cats’ favour, the Saints’ rucks should do better around the ground.

And just like that famous round 14 encounter, watching the likes of Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna and Clint Jones throwing themselves at Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and Cameron Ling – and vice versa – will be fantastic and enthralling.

But determining the team that will win the midfield isn’t easy.

Heck, right now, determining the team that will win full-stop isn’t easy. They’ve been locked into positions one and two on the ladder since round 4.

Geelong has an added advantage with their prior grand final experience. The predicted wet and windy weather should also help them out.

St Kilda will hate to let such a brilliant season end with a loss and they do go into the game with an extra day’s rest.

But the Cats might be just too much to overcome, so I’m going tip a reverse of the round 14 result. Geelong by six.

Follow Michael on twitter @mdifabrizio
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