Preview of the AFL grand final.

SATURDAY

GEELONG v ST KILDA at the MCG, 2.40pm

Head to head: Geelong 121 St Kilda 81 Drawn 0
Last time: St Kilda 14.7 (91) bt Geelong 13.7 (85)
Head to head in finals: Geelong 3 St Kilda 0
Overall finals record: Geelong – Won 44 Lost 55 Drawn 1. St Kilda – Won 19 Lost 27
TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.60 St Kilda $2.35
Sportingbet: Geelong $1.60 St Kilda $2.40

Summary: The notional view on this game is – the heart says St Kilda, the head says Geelong.

Both teams can make a case for favouritism but only one can plead underdog status and that’s St Kilda.

The Saints’ CV rests on its dominating run through this season, losing only two games, while Geelong have been the dominant team of the past three years.

The Cats won their first grand final in 44 years when they claimed the 2007 flag, before losing it to Hawthorn last year.

Now that they are in their third straight grand final, Geelong will be out to emerge with a positive win-loss scoreline.

Even though midfield star and Brownlow Medallist Jimmy Bartel says the side’s place in history is secure, there will always be those ready to glance back to the seven years from 1989 when that dreaded word in sport “choke” came to mind.

During that time the Cats found themselves in four grand finals under Malcolm Blight and Gary Ayres and lost the lot.

Geelong have thrown off the mantle of failure which dogged them since the Bob Davis-led victory in 1963 but it has come to rest on the shoulders of St Kilda, whose last premiership came in 1966.

Twice since then they have had the opportunity but lost grand finals to Hawthorn in 1971 and Adelaide in 1997.

Geelong have won three of their past four games against St Kilda but the most relevant of all – this year’s round 14 clash – they lost by a goal.

That time the Saints bounded away to a five-goal opening term burst and while the Cats valiantly played catch-up, they ran out of time.

They know this time they must either make the early break themselves or at the very least contain St Kilda.

Both sides are prepared for the desperation which is the hallmark of 21st century football, where two teams as evenly matched as these are unlikely to showcase a high-scoring, free-flowing game.

In the words of St Kilda coach Ross Lyon: “It’s going to be close, it’s going to be tough, it’s going to be brutal, there’s going to be blood rules, there’s going to be big collisions, that’s the way it’s going to be played.”

St Kilda will be relying on their big-bodied tall forwards Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke to kick goals, backed up by goalsneaks Stephen Milne and Adam Schneider (although that pair will have to lift their performance after last week’s meagre effort against the Bulldogs).

They will be stared down by Matthew Scarlett, one of the league’s most fearsome fullbacks, along with Harry Taylor who turned in an impressive game against Collingwood last week.

The Cats expect their goals to come from Cameron Mooney and Tom Hawkins, in whom coach Mark Thompson has continued to show faith.

But it is the even spread of goalkickers in the Cats line which is likely to be a major headache for the Saints.

In the midfield are two of the past three year’s Brownlow Medallists – Bartel who won in 2007 and Gary Ablett, the player’s player who was crowned on Monday night.

St Kilda’s midfield – including Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes and Nick Dal Santo – is a classy one but it will be kept busy.

Geelong also now have the mercurial gamebreaker Steve Johnson finally back from hip surgery and he will be much improved after his return last week.

Key: The start will be crucial and this time Geelong will have to ensure they do not let St Kilda slip away, or at least are able to contain them. Geelong also needs to persist with their game of calculated risks if they are to keep the Saints on edge – but both sides have fit, full lists and there should be no excuses at the end.

Tip: Geelong by 15 points

© AAP 2012

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