Grand Final Preview: St Kilda v Geelong

As expected the two most dominant sides throughout the season will meet on the last Saturday in September. Both teams won their first 13 games of the year before St Kilda won the much-anticipated round 14 clash by six points.

The Cats finished the home-and-away season with an 18-4 win-loss record and went on to account for the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood to book their third straight grand final appearance while the Saints won a club-record 19 straight games before suffering losses to Essendon and North Melbourne in round 20 and 21.

They bounced back with a win over Melbourne to become just the fourth side in history to at least 20 games in a season. Ross Lyon’s men then downed Collingwood by 28 points in the first qualifying final before a hard-fought victory over the Bulldogs saw them progress to their first grand final since 1997.

MEDICAL ROOM: Both teams reported no injuries out of their respective preliminary final victories. While St Kilda has made the one unforced change, Geelong will go into the grand final with an unchanged line-up with small forward Mathew Stokes who missed the win over the Magpies with groin soreness failing to earn a recall.

KEY MATCH-UPS: Clinton Jones vs. Gary Ablett
Ablett played a key role in his side’s crushing 73-point win over the Magpies in the second preliminary final at the MCG last Saturday night, racking up a game-high 34 possessions and booting two goals.

The 2009 Brownlow medallist is damaging with his ability to break the lines, kick goals and set up scoring opportunities for his teammates.

Shutting down Ablett’s creative run will be a major key for St Kilda if they are going to contain a Cats outfit that is capable of scoring heavily.

Jones has been a revelation this season, consistently quelling the influence of some of the competition’s premier midfielders.

The 25-year-old will be given the job on Ablett in what will be a pivotal duel in determining the outcome of the grand final.

When these two sides last met Jones laid nine tackles – he will need to apply the same level of pressure on Ablett on Saturday otherwise the Cats star will lift his side to victory.

Harry Taylor vs. Nick Riewoldt
Riewoldt has starred for St Kilda during the finals, booting nine of his side’s 21 goals.

If the Cats are able to keep the Saints skipper quiet they should secure their second premiership in three years.

Taylor is the man that will be given the unenviable task of trying to contain Riewoldt.

Western Bulldogs defender Dale Morris was able to keep Riewoldt quiet in the first half last weekend because he opted to stand a few metres in front of him, protecting the space in which the St Kilda champion leads into – Taylor will need to do the same.

The Cats defender will also need his midfield to get on top at the stoppages and suffocate the Saints midfield with their pressure skills when they don’t have the football.

Sam Gilbert vs. Steve Johnson
Johnson made an impressive return from hip surgery, moving freely as he racked up 20 touches and kicked one goal.

The classy Cats forward has a history of performing well on the biggest stage in AFL football, having won the Norm Smith medal in 2007.

The 26-year-old didn’t play in the round 14 clash and could well prove to be the difference between the two sides if the Saints don’t put the clamps on him.

Gilbert has been one of the most-improved players in the competition this season and will most likely be given first crack at Johnson as he is tall enough to match him in the air and also mobile enough to go with him when the football hits the deck.

The Saints will need Gilbert to be switched on defensively for the full four quarters and not give Johnson any time or space in which to work in as he can turn a game on its head with a quick burst of brilliance.

Cameron Ling vs. Nick Dal Santo
Dal Santo was among his side’s best in the win over the Dogs with 31 disposals and four inside 50’s.

The Cats will be keen to limit Dal Santo’s influence in the middle as he is able to consistently set up scoring opportunities for his teammates with his clean use of the football.

Ling is regarded as the best midfield stopper in the AFL and looms as the obvious candidate to tag Dal Santo in what shapes as being yet another pivotal duel.

Not only is Ling capable of shutting down some of the league’s best midfielders he is also able to hurt them going the other way – the Geelong tagger has averaged 23 possessions per game this season.

It is vital for the Saints that Dal Santo works hard going both ways.

VERDICT: St Kilda is just one win away from ending a 43-year premiership drought while Geelong has the opportunity to confirm themselves as one of the all-time great teams with a second flag in three years.

The Saints have relied heavily on Riewoldt to kick them to a winning score during the finals series while the Cats had nine individual goal kickers in the wins over the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. In what promises to be an epic contest, Geelong’s even spread of goal kickers should prove to be the difference.

Cats by 17 points.

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