To who? Collectors of memorabilia?

As soon as rugby soccer and league internationals start moving into your heartland, (as it is) “at least your premier is not stupid, and even Bracksey seen the light”, you will understand the world order. Trust me, league had it pushed down our throats for years.
I will say once again, their is season memberships available for the Storm. Buy them now, and in 20 years time you can sell them at a premium. cheers.

ATM you need a city of at least half to three quarters of a million to sustain a club, cant see Darwin or Cairns happening for a long time…. then of course you need the corporate backing.

Tassie
Canberra
Nth QLD
Darwin
3rd WA team

Not in that order though.

And they all have their own issues.

Tassie football fragmented north and south
Canberra is very close to GWS
Where Perth team would be placed
Population density/support for Nth QLD and NT

My own view is that WA could support a new team but i have no idea where to put it, traditionally Eagles north, Dockers south.

There is plenty of money and supporters but no seats/memberships at the ground.

Far better the NT or ACT are supported to this end before an off shore licence is considered.

I note that the AFL are going ahead with a “World” team to compete in our Nationl Under 16 Championships. This will be in Div 2 and could be the thin edge of the wedge as far as our own loyal demos being expediently overlooked by the bankers in cashing in on any corporate potential a city i.e. Auckland. may offer as opposed to Canberra – The Nations Capital!

This scenario should be avoided at all costs as it would disenfranchise generations of devout supoorters of our national game throughout the country.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/rfnews/territorys-bold-afl-bid-falls-on-deaf-ears/2009/10/28/1256405426010.html

I think best to give Darwin another 20 years to get its population over 250k, and then investigate.

First step was establishing a representative side which they have done: NT Thunder, which plays in the QAFL.

The GWS fixtures for Canberra that are being bandied around are five to six games / season.

Sydney are very protective of this nursery and will try to ensure their ever growing Canberra support base does not change it’s allegiencies siignificantly to the GWS franchise.

GWS will be relying on the ACT grassroots for many years to come it would seem.

The bankers at the AFL are not in the least bit interested in considering the ACT as a future base for expansion sadly and that is why I perish the thought of any off shore backwater i.e. NZ gleaning elite status over ANY Australian demo especially the nations capital. There are plenty of influential ex AFL players and others who have been championing Canberras consideration as a great option for any AFL expansion plan but to no avail.

The ACT GR are of a very good standard indeed. The ACT rep side defeated Vic country in this years Aust Country Champinships, being runners up the previous against them as well which is naught to be sneezed at.

Go the mighty Claremont!!

Cheers

ANd if there’s no mid year break for SoO, then, run whatever season a bit like the NRL (26 rounds, but ‘only’ 24 matches) or SANFL/WAFL (23 rounds, ‘only’ 20 matches). A slightly longer season CAN be absorbed with a couple of intra-season breaks for teams.

Would also like to see a minor premier status lift for each league.

Redb

Also, I don’t see how 10 team divisions make it better.

Surely you can’t put all the Vic teams in One Division and all the teams from other states in the other Division!

That would be completely unfair (I’m a Vic) – Travel differences would be huge!

4 Groups of 5 for me works best – where the new teams are of course is a matter for debate, but 5 in the West and 5 in the North makes perfect sense to me.

Maybe Newcastle/Central Coast isn’t the place, maybe it is North Queensland?? Or even North Sydney? I just think if the AFL wants to be taken seriously, you need to make inroads in Sydney. 3 Teams in NSW I think is better than 3 teams in QLD – in this concept.

As for Tasmania – I want them in there, but I think the best way to accomplish that is with a co-location team from Melbourne.

The full plan by the way calls for strengthened 2nd Tier Leagues.

You can add – with 18 teams, the AFL should go to 25 Rounds of 9 Matches (225 Matches in total)

Huge step up from current 176 Matches, but should help secure the higher TV Rights – and if they scrap the NAB Cup (As promised, its only an increase of 34 Matches)

I do share a concern that Vic club rivalries could be dismantled if the conferences fail to capitalise on the Ess, Coll, Carl, Rich rivalry. Probably go with two conferences of 10.

Dont agree wth Newcastle/Central Coast ahead of Northern Australia be it Cairns or Darwin. 3rd WA ahead of Tassie?

I’d run with Tassie and 3rd WA (strongest WAFL club).

Redb

Darwin metropolitan area including Palmerston is on track for 200k by 2020. These guys are AFL MAD. According to Wikipedia “7% of all Northern Territorians in 2007 participated in Australian rules football, the highest participation in Australia (The sport also produces more professional Australian rules footballers per capita in the Australian Football League than any other state or territory)

Canberra already has 350k, and while is not AFL dominated, it at least has people from all over Australia workign for the government. Also produced a couple of AFL Legends by the names of Alex Jesaulenko, and James Hird among others

But where?

1. (19) – 3rd WA Team – Yep has to be. What does it give?

6 Perth “Derbies” each year.
Also
11 Weekends with 2 Perth matches

= 17 weekends with either a Derby or 2 games to attend – a good effort at increasing AFL market-share in a mature market.

What else does it get? The prospect of a 3rd WA AFL Team should ensure that a 65K oval stadium is built and provides a good counter-argument to those that would argue that the 3 professional (Super 14, A-League, NRL (to come)) teams deserve their own ground – certainly not ahead of 3 big-time AFL sides that attract far bigger crowds.

2. (20) – Newcastle/Central Coast) – By 2020 over 1.5 million people in this area – It will clearly then be the biggest area in Australia without an AFL presence. Assuming West Sydney are by the middle of the decade following the next decade – ie 2023-2025 attracting decent average crowds – this is where the AFL has to go for the eyeballs.

What about Tasmania? North Queensland? Well, these places will just have to wait – but, they might not have to wait. I still think providing a relocation package to Tasmania may come in handy for a Vic side someday.

If the AFL strengthens its presence around the country, it will come to rely less on the Melbourne stronghold to drive the game. I say less, but of course it will still be the most significant driver of the game.

With a strengthen presence around Australia, it may become more likely that the AFL could squeeze the weakest team out of Melbourne into some sort of co-location in Tasmania.

11/12 games in Tassie, 7/8 games in Melbourne etc. I really think that’s the only way Tasmania can get a team in the AFL – even if many calling for a Tasmanian team don’t like that scenario.

So, where does that leave us?

AFL 20 Teams – which finally allows an even an uncompromised draw!
AFL West – 5 Teams (WA – 3; SA – 2) – Farmer/Ebert League
AFL North – 5 Teams (NSW – 3, QLD – 2) – Voss/Goodes League
AFL South – 5 Teams (VIC – 4, TAS – 1) – Hudson/Coventry League
AFL Central – 5 Teams (VIC – 5) – Barassi/Whitten League

(Note, all VIC teams rotate each year between the South or Central Divisions based on overall ladder positions from the previous year)

Draw
Play each team Home and Away in your League – 8 Matches (4 Home & 4 Away)
Play each team in other 3 Leagues once – 15 Matches (7 Home, 7 Away & 1 “Development” Match)
Fixture
11 Home Matches, 11 Away Matches, 1 “Development Match”

(Development Match – (9 in total) – Matches played in Cairns, Auckland, Jo’Burg, Darwin, Canberra, etc.)

24 Rounds – 23 Matches.(230 Total Matches)
Each team has 1 Development Match – and then a bye the following week (or previous week)

Works perfectly.

Don’t disagree with most of your roadmap, just your timeframes. I can see most of these structures being established within 20 years, as the first 3 you mention have already been done for a few years now, though admittedly it varies with geography. The half dozen (sub-)provincial feeder/farmer league sides in a similar tier 2 structure to the VFL, SANFL & WAFL is a critical requirement and would be a part of that roadmap, it just wouldn’t be the “big league” (ie AFL).

Granting an AFL license there at some point in the next 2 decades is a tough decision for the traditionalists and the conservative minded, but nethertheless the right decision in line with where the game will eventually head in this century. Why enter a massive new market (people & $) with anything buy your best available product?

Perhaps a lesson we can take from NFL Europe.

– SSB

re any talk of extra teams etc…..Oikee on an RL thread talks about the AFL leaving WA wide open (with Freo and WCE effectively over subscribed) and the implication that people have to find something to support.

We should note that the WAFL this year attracted 245,289 attendees.

First time over 200,000 since 1994. That previous figure was 241K. Back when Freo joined, the attendance dropped overnight to 160K. A 33% drop…..but, requiring a 50% increase to return to those levels.

Of course now, the WAFL is structured up as a 9 team 23 round comp, but each team plays 20 games.

So, 90 matches plus finals – - 245K

And just under 23K to the Grand Final

The AFL has to be very careful to not smash the 2nd tier all the time, or too soon.

However, a 10 year plan/build up might be very interesting to see unfold – if the AFL announced an in principle desire to have Joondalup and Tassie in by 2022…….

Just trying to be realistic, it’s possible but a few would be ahead in my view.

South Africa needs to produce some players for the AFL, get a structured adult league up and running which produces a mature competition in its is own right. Much better to have 8 -10 South African sides going at each other than spin one off to Australia.

As rugby is now discovering the allure of international club comps is not that strong, putting them in one conference, NZ v NZ or SAF v SAF and its works a lot better. From what I’m, reading both the domestic rugby club comps (Air NZ Cup & Currie Cup) are proving ever popular as Super 14 wanes a little.

My plan/goals for South Africa development would be: continue to build at grass, develop local leagues, build to a premier Footywild/AFL league played at province or sub province level, produce players to be drafted into the AFL and then eventually play Australia at test level in X number of years.

Depending on a slidiing scale of success along these lines (may not get to the last level in our lifetime) there any number of positives for the game

Redb

Joondalup mayor talks up third AFL franchise in WA

So, if he reckons going north is better than south through Mandurah…….is there actually half a chance of BOTH??? How cool would that be, 4 WA teams, a real break away ‘conference’ to break the East Coast (time zone) dominance.

Too much thinking inside the box. In 10-15 years improvements in flight technology are only going to lead to faster travel times and lower costs. I would be very surprised if there weren’t a handful of South Afticans plying their trade in the AFL by then (there are apparently 16,000 who have gone/are going through the FootyWild (Auskick) program there at the moment). Don’t forget the team doesn’t need to be comprised purely of locals. In the professional age, Australian based players can relocate. Western Force, anyone?

If the AFL is going to take the plunge in a non-Australian market at some point in the future, I feel it is going to be there. With not much else left appealing in Australia after a TAS19 license, Jo’burg, with its 15 million in the greater area by 2015, may be the place they do it.

Just saying. Time will tell, eh?

Redb

One of them was on the money – two teams operating out of Sydney (his timing is a bit out).

But he also mentioned a team playing out of Nauru!!! (plus a couple of other choice predictions).

But on your next call that is way out to left field. Logisiticially it would be a nightmare and very costly. Let’s actually get a few South Africans into the AFL before we even consider a SAF team before NT, Nth Qld, 3rd WA or even NZ.

Redb

If we are talking 2020 and beyond, the 20th license, IMHO, should go much further west to Johannesburg, South Africa. At that point, the AFL should be looking to capitalise on the generation length grassroots investment made in the Rainbow nation. What better way to provide a roadmap to elite local talent and open up a new unsaturated sporting markets than to grant a license to a thriving metropolis of over 10 million people.

e.g. on Tassie,

or on 20 teams,

and Demetriou’s stock standard reply is “Never say never”.

i.e. he doesn’t rule it out…….which get’s interpreted as that’s now part of the plan. It’s amazing how one wishy washy quote can often drive a whole frenzy of speculation.

Remember, the AFL ain’t privately owned. Nor are the clubs.

Is that money making? or, ensuring the sustainability of the league…….given the market they are in put’s them up against privately owned HAL ‘franchises’ and the likes of Frank Lowy and Clive Palmer, privately owned NRL clubs with massive pokies venues, etc etc.

once we get our independence and get our funding right, its on like donkey kong.