Will football overtake other Australian codes?

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By simonjzw, 29 Oct 2009 simonjzw is a Roar Rookie

Tagged:: AFL, football, Football World Cup, NRL, Rugby League, Socceroos

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Whilst I applaud the passion and fervour with which football fans follow their sport, I’m always bewildered by their assertions that the sport is going to overtake the other football codes in Australia.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest this will ever happen.

Not only does football have to become much more popular than it is, but the AFL and NRL would need to have significant popularity declines and this just isn’t happening.

In Australia, we all got behind the Socceroos at the last World Cup, but that event hasn’t had any impact on the popularity of the NRL and the AFL.

Entry into the Asia region has meant many more interesting Socceroos matches and qualification for the next world cup. But the A-League isn’t taking the public by storm – ratings and crowd attendances are down and disappointing.

And there are serious questions about the standard.

Now I notice the Gold Coast team is moving ahead with plans to cap crowds at 5,000. And this in one of the fastest growing population centres in Australia.

Compare that with the success of the Gold Coast Titans, in the NRL, from day one.

A lot has been said and written about the AFL’s push into Western Sydney. But you can be assured that team will attract crowds better than the most popular A-League team in its first season in the AFL.

And let’s not forget the A-League plays in the off-season for the NRL and AFL.

But the most important fact, that all the football zealots ignore, is that it hasn’t happened anywhere else in the world where a strong, national indigenous football code exists.

Ireland – Gaelic Football
Canada – Canadian Football
United States – Gridiron

In each of these countries the indigenous codes and national competitions have flourished. Their popularity has not been undermined by football in any way.

Any national football competitions in these countries sit way down the pecking order in terms of popularity and public consciousness.

And Ireland is within spitting distance of at least four major European Leagues.

I’ve read a lot of blah blah blah on The Roar about digital television and the internet bringing the diversity of world game to the masses. The truly international nature of football and its grass roots popularity are also popular themes.

But to everyone out there who is telling me “just wait and see what things will be like in 20 (50) years time”, none of that means the A-League will ever be able to compete in our winter with the NRL or the AFL.

The AFL and the NRL will always be our premier football competitions.

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The Crowd Says (87) | Page 1 of Comments

tifosi said | October 29th 2009 @ 4:28am | Report comment

I agree, i think the other codes fear it a bit too much.

Football will get bigger, but it will always be everyone’s second sport.

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Robbos said | October 29th 2009 @ 6:02am | Report comment

Fear has driven this article.

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Freud of Football said | October 29th 2009 @ 6:17am | Report comment

How very insular of you simon. I’m going to look at your article from a neutral perspective, pretty easy as I grew up an AFL fan and came to football later in my childhood, I love both games but for you to write an article like this stinks of ignorance.

For starters, “gridiron” is not the term used for American Football by anyone with the slightest idea of the game. Having lived in America I can attest to its popularity but I can also confirm just how popular football (or socka as you likely call it) is. This is the sport played by people in parks, by kids, by teens, this is the sort of thing more families get together to watch than any NFL game.

NFL fans are generally very passionate, football has more casual followers and while the MLS may not be huge, La Liga and the EPL have a very big following in the country as do the Brazilian and Argentian leagues.

You noted that the Gold Coast has capped crowds but failed to mention its because the billionaire owner doesn’t want to shell out $100,000 extra when a crowd of 5100 shows up.

“Not only does football have to become much more popular than it is, but the AFL and NRL would need to have significant popularity declines and this just isn’t happening.” – No, all that needs to happen is more money comes into football which will inevitably result in an increase in standards which will make the game more appealing. Or a WC, having that on our doorstep would have the same affect it had on the USA when it staged the tournament in 94, football boomed like never before after the WC there.

Or -which is also quite possible – the AFL and NRL decline. The AFL is already losing some of the traditonalist fans due to the rule changes which have taken out so much of the contact in the sport and NRL is losing families as the well-publicised off-field antics continue (yes the AFL has them but they don’t seem to be as much of a deterrant).

If either code can’t command as much money as they have, the games will decline and football will only improve.

I’m not saying football is going to be number one in 5, 10 or 50 years but I am saying your entire reasoning is flawed and football has potential, real potential to grow and a lot more than either the NRL or AFL have.

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- True Tah said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:32am | Report comment
  
  Freud
  
  so if more money comes into the HAL it will make the comp more appealing than NRL/AFL? When you factor in the likes of Lowy and Palmer, there would be far more money in the HAL than NRL/AFL combined. And it hasnt really led to capacity crowds at GCU or SFC games this season.
  
  The strength of these comps is that they are a lot more integrated in their communities and representative. I dont believe Australians will generally support teams which are essentially the playthings of multimillionaires.
  
  Reply
  - Freud of Football said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:41am | Report comment
    
    Lowy and Palmer can’t spend their money, with the salary cap in place it is always going to restrict the level of the A-League.
    
    “I dont believe Australians will generally support teams which are essentially the playthings of multimillionaires.” – Would you disagree that the majority of football fans in Aus – including those with but a fleeting interest – are more likely to be fans of an EPL, Serie A or La Liga team first and foremost than of an A-League club?
    
    I’d think – without looking at any statistics – that clubs in these three leagues would garner more support in Aus than any A-League club and we all know that those clubs are the “playthings of multimillionaires” or squillionaires.
    
    Australian’s mightn’t like the issue of money in sport and be as accepting of it as Europeans but anyone can tell the gulf in class between any two leagues will make one more appealing over the other.
    
    Reply
- Michael C said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:46am | Report comment
  
  seeing the current restructuring of baseball in Australia, with the MLB investing $25 million in establishing an ABL that is a ‘safe’ and ‘friendly’ place for players to go off season and to recruit from (unlike gun toting Costa Rica for example)……is it just a matter of time before some foreign soccer interest actually invests the $100 million or so into the FFA/HAL?…….although, would that be enough?
  
  How much money would it take to make domestic soccer in this country attractive enough??
  
  Clive Palmer and GCU exhibit that for all the talk and grand plans…….Palmer is still trying to run it as a business……..and for private owners, so far, a HAL club is generally a bad short term investment.
  
  FofF – re ‘decline’….given AFL has had it’s 3 highest ever attended seasons of matches and record club memberships. The NRL had a record year. Compare both to the HAL….which is looking sick and sorry and as though it’s fighting outside of it’s weight division (an issue that continues to burn basketball in this country).
  
  What will happen in 20 years time??? Outside of hosting a FIFA WC…..
  
  Reply
  - AndyRoo said | October 29th 2009 @ 11:07am | Report comment
    
    Michael C
    “Is it just a matter of time before some foreign soccer interest actually invests the $100 million or so into the FFA/HAL?…….although, would that be enough?
    
    I doubt we would see foreign investment because why wouldn’t they support their own league or one with more prestige. If someone has 100 million dollars there are much better ways to make money than develop a football competition. It’s normally the person witht he TV rights, or emrchandising contract that makes money. I can’t think of any code that is allowed to stockpile profits, you have to reinvest it back into the game or supporters get restless.
    
    If they are doing it for prestige if the money is spent on player salaries then that can quickly evaporate with very little long term benefit.
    
    Perhaps someone would get involved if they decided to set up a competitor to Foxtel. It’s a bit pie in the sky but perhaps someone who has interests in Asian football would use the A league as a base to stuff the a league teams full of the best Sth East Asian talent as a way of getting teams that appeal to those markets into the ACL.
    Don’t think this would be a huge boon for crowd figures though or represent anything resembling a dramatic changing of the guard on the Australian scene.
    
    People with 100’s of millions of Dollars tend not to be very patient with their hobbies and that’s what getting involved with Football requires. Also a bit of humility because you could spend 3 billion dollars and all you would get for it would be the 3rd most popular football code. You could overtake the NRL figures wise but only by remaining a summer game, which is a false economy.
    
    If you gave me 100m and a mandate to improve football, what would I do with the money?
    That’s a though provoking question.
    
    Reply
  - Freud of Football said | October 29th 2009 @ 6:18pm | Report comment
    
    Michael, the MLB is a totally different sport and in a league of its own with popularity and finances and as such is hard to compare to Aus. One average starting player for an MLB team would earn more than an A-League clubs salary cap so $25 Million is spare change.
    
    It is posible that football in Aus will get outside investment. Clubs across the world are changing their financial structures.
    
    There are teams popping up all over Brazil with the sole aim of identifying and selling talent. There are clubs in some of the “lesser” European leagues that are starting to get the backing of some of the Russian Oligarch’s who see these clubs with large domestic fan-bases and proud histories as “ideal” investments.
    
    What is to say Australia can’t become a type of “glamour league”? A plaything for the rich who come here to live comfortably?
    
    Just look at Australia as a country – Standard of living is exceptional, climate is great, english is the main language, currency and economics are preferrable to the rich. It has the prerequisites to allow Australia to attract investors for the game.
    
    Reply
- James said | October 29th 2009 @ 9:40am | Report comment
  
  Participation means jack. Soccer has been number 1 in the participation stakes now in USA for decades. So what? Its a relatively simple and safe game to play…
  
  Reply
  - aljay said | October 29th 2009 @ 12:23pm | Report comment
    
    Football has also been No.1 in participation in Australia for years now as well, and hasn’t led to it being the No.1 professional sport.
    
    Reply
    - Michael said | October 29th 2009 @ 1:14pm | Report comment
      
      If you look at the demographics of those who participate in it, you can understand why. Most amateur participation in sport is done by juniors, who don’t have full time jobs, who can’t afford to buy membership packages and attend all the matches.
      
      You look at the demographics of people who go to AFL matches and the average age of attendees is going up. Australia having an aging population does have something to do with it, but moreso the narrow-mindedness of older people.
      
      Reply
      - mahony said | October 29th 2009 @ 1:48pm | Report comment
        
        Michael – you have raised the problem for AFL/NRL that dare not speak its own name – demographics. Well done, I could not agree more – which is why I speak of this debate in generational terms. It is hard to notice a shifting glacier when you are standing on it.
        
        Reply
Dickroo said | October 29th 2009 @ 6:22am | Report comment

yes, it can happen.
Just open up the immigration gate towards Asian, South American, African and Europeans.

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- Pippinu said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:43am | Report comment
  
  Although perversely, the ABS stats show that a greater percentage of Australians born overseas attend AFL games than any other code – and by a considerable margin in percentage terms I might add.
  
  Reply
- True Tah said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:47am | Report comment
  
  So every person from Asia, Africa and Europe who migrates to Australia is a futbol fan and will not follow NRL/AFL? How would you explain the passion Australians of Lebanese heritage have developed for rugby league, when futbol is the only sport in their homeland?
  
  I take it by Asians you include Indians, Sir Lankans, Pakistanis, for whom cricket would be the no. 1 sport.
  
  There are plenty of Africans already in Australia, these include South Africans, and for a fair chunk of them, rugby would be their no.1 sport. Note you excluded Pacific Islanders as well.
  
  I thought we have already opened up immigration gates for Europeans since WW2????
  
  Reply
  - James said | October 29th 2009 @ 9:35am | Report comment
    
    Very true TT and PiP. Melbourne is the most international and multicultural of all Austrlalian cities, with the percentage fo those born overseas over 30% comparted to about a quarter for the rest of Australia. Yet, AFL thrives in this town. Why?
    
    Reply
    - Allen said | October 29th 2009 @ 2:21pm | Report comment
      
      Baby Boomers.. control all the money and can’t get enough of AFL because they remember the glory days of the 70′s, 80′s
      
      Reply
      - Pippinu said | October 29th 2009 @ 2:30pm | Report comment
        
        Were the 70s and 80s glory days??
        
        I thought the then VFL nearly went broke in the mid 80s.
        
        Reply
  - Dickroo said | October 29th 2009 @ 10:09am | Report comment
    
    fair enough, well then, open it up to South Americans.
    
    I’d like to see how those Brazil migrants and their kids here adopt the egg balls )
    
    Reply
    - Pippinu said | October 29th 2009 @ 2:29pm | Report comment
      
      Actually, I’m aware of at least one Brazilian born player in the AFL today.
      
      Here’s his wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_O%27Brien
      
      It opens:
      
      “Heritier “Harry” O’Brien (born 15 November 1986) is an Australian rules footballer in the Australian Football League
      
      He was born to a Brazilian mother and a Congolese father in Rio de Janeiro, and moved to Western Australia when he was 3 years old.[1] However he was raised by his Australian stepfather and was 19 years old when he found out about his biological father.[2] He supported the Essendon Bombers as a child, with his family owning a pet dog named Sheedy after the long-time Essendon coach, Kevin Sheedy. ”
      
      Only in Australia would you find a kid born in Rio, to a Congalese father, who named his dog Sheeds, and took to aussie rules.
      
      How can anyone not love the diversity of Australia? We just keep offering these rare gems to the rest of the world.
      
      Reply
- dasilva said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:53am | Report comment
  
  Other sports has done a pretty good job at attracting migrants.
  
  VIetnamese community most of them I know support an AFL side despite the fact that Football is a national sport back in their country. If they support Football it’s generally EPL.
  
  It’s not as simple as letting in migrants in this country and expect Football to be the sole beneficiaries of that.
  
  One of the things migrants pick up when they arrive in Australia is that we are pretty sporting mad country and to intergrate and get along with other people it’s wise to pick up AFL and cricket in your vocabulary (I’m quite sure leagues in other states)
  
  They may like football but they also may develop a liking for other sports as well.
  
  Reply
Redb said | October 29th 2009 @ 6:43am | Report comment

I think its’ fair after 5 years of the A League where there was much prediction and fear mongering by futbol fans to summarise soccer’s efforts as improved but far from over-whelming.

Would what would be interesting is if the EPL teams relocated to Australia and played a domestic competition for 5 years to see where the code would sit on the sporting landscape. They would need to go head to head with the AFL and NRL but as the EPL is one of the elite soccer comps in the world – the quality on the park would be there.

It would certainly be a fairer fight than the ‘Has Been’ A League (HAL).

The key difference in Australia is that we have choice we have seen the light of the other codes – the physicality and athleticism on display in the AFL/NRL and of course the revolutionary use of hands

Redb

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Chris said | October 29th 2009 @ 6:48am | Report comment

This year the AFL has seen a small crowd and ratings increase.
The NRL has seen a slightly larger increase (albeit from a smaller base).
The A-League has seen a considerable decrease (and from a much smaller base).

The only sports less likely to overtake the NRL/AFL right now are Rugby and Tiddlywinks.

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- James said | October 29th 2009 @ 9:39am | Report comment
  
  Actually the AFL had a very minor decrese in crowds, but not by much….less than 1,000 on average.
  
  Club Membership however rose again to new record levels…around 600k now
  
  Reply
albe said | October 29th 2009 @ 6:51am | Report comment

Football fans aren’t that preoccupied with overtaking the other “codes”. Its an argument i hear more from people who follow other sports. (It may in fact come as a surprise to some people to learn that different sports can CO-EXIST.)
Where we sit on the pecking order with these minor sports like Aussie rules or rugby league is of little consequence.
I’d rather have a football league that positions us to compete with other clubs in Asia.
The success of the A-League long term will be measured by how we compare to other football leagues, not other sports.

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Luke W said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:13am | Report comment

Football has already taken over those other sports. Participation rates, Socceroos ratings and attendances, EPL/La Liga/Serie A support, etc.

Like I’ve always said, the biggest competitor for the A-League isn’t the NRL or AFL, it’s the other mediums of football people can watch.

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- True Tah said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:36am | Report comment
  
  Luke W
  
  futbol has always been the most popular participation in the sport from year zero, yet despite this massive natural advantage, it cannot compete as a professional sport. Pretty much every male in this country has been a registered futbol player at some stage in his life, and there are something like 2m registered players in the country right now.
  
  Maybe as small kids we play the game, but we prefer watching NRL/AFL?
  
  Reply
  - Robbos said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:20am | Report comment
    
    TT,
    I’m sure there is the 15th NZ v Aus game to watch in either league or union for you to discuss or the joke that is the 4 nations. But then again at least you have int’l football.
    
    Reply
  - Luke W said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:48am | Report comment
    
    People want to watch the best of the best. How many NRL fans watch the English Super League? There would be some no doubt, but there would be even more that wouldn’t bother because it isn’t up to the same standard as the NRL. The A-League suffers the same problem in reverse. People would rather watch the EPL/La Liga/Seria A/Champions League because it is of a higher quality.
    
    Reply
    - M1tch said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:50am | Report comment
      
      I used to watch heaps of ESL, but nine has the rights now and shafted the game to midnight
      
      Reply
- Pippinu said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:45am | Report comment
  
  It’s a god point that tt makes – all of us have been registered soccer players at one time or another, or at a minimum, have played heaps at school.
  
  On the other, there are millions of males that have probably never held a brand new sherrin in their hands.
  
  Reply
  - The Link said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:26am | Report comment
    
    Robbos, that chip on your shoulder looks to have extended into your brain.
    
    The 4 RL nations playing at the moment have been playing each other for over 60 years.
    
    Small compared to football, of course, what a revelation.
    
    A joke – hardly.
    
    Reply
    - Robbos said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:33am | Report comment
      
      The Link, the 4 nations has as much interest as the A-League competition. I live & work in Sydney, where the NRL is discussed quite regularly. Noone mentioned the 20 all draw with NZ the other day in the office. Not even sure when the next match is on?
      
      Reply
- Michael C said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:26am | Report comment
  
  The more things change, the more they stay the same -
  
  Socceroos 2 friendlies drew 61K total avg 30.5K
  Socceroos 3 WC qualifiers drew 165K total avg 55K
  Wallabies 3 Tri Nations matches drew 164K total avg 54.8 K
  Wallabies 4 ‘other’ tests drew 126K total. avg 31.5K
  
  Very, very similar figures there. And over the journey we’ve seen monster Socceroos crowds at the MCG for example (even friendlies v Greece).
  
  SofO 3 matches drew 184K total avg 61.3K
  NRL finals 9 matches drew 351K avg 39K
  
  AFL 9 finals drew 625K total avg 68.3K
  
  the lay of the land is that 9 AFL finals drew 625K compared to 15 matches made up of Wallabies, Socceroos and SoO that drew 700K at about 46K avg.
  
  To me, that puts things in perspective.
  
  The Socceroos can only play so many games in Australia……and even so, we’ve seen that an Asian Cup qualifier – a vital game – vs Oman at Etihad only drew 20,000.
  
  THe Socceroos market value is becoming more real now.
  
  Reply
  - Michael said | October 29th 2009 @ 1:18pm | Report comment
    
    Talk about selective statistics.
    
    The AFL Grand Final is always a sellout at the MCG, drawing almost 100K “fans”, the same with the preliminary finals.
    
    If you want a fair representation, get those attendances as a proportion of stadium capacity.
    
    Reply
    - Michael C said | October 29th 2009 @ 2:17pm | Report comment
      
      why?
      
      If the Socceroos are such a major player domestically, then, having 1 or 2 games a year in any given city is sure to be a sell out…..surely?
      
      The 3 WC qualifiers drew 165K to a combination of ANZ twice and MCG…..that’s 247K capacity. So, running about 67% for those big 3 games.
      
      Tri-Nations Wallabies were more squished, ANZ drew 80K, Subi 36K and Suncrop 47K, so, 164K into 181K capacity – so running around 90% for those big 3 games.
      
      TN Wallabies tickets look a bit hotter than WC Qualifier Socceroos?
      
      AFL finals had 7 matches at the MCG for 532K from 700K capacity, so running around 76%. Now, for the ‘big 3′ games, AFL prelims and GF with 300K capacity drew 265K. About 88%
      
      NRL big 3 SoO drew 184K to venues with capacity of 192,500 so near enough to 95%.
      
      These are some of the benchmarks year on year. The Socceroos are in a crowded market. btw – the other 2 Socceroos matches drew 61K to stadia with 101,800 capacity. So, about 60%. (obviously hurt by the low figure at Etihad as the Netherlands game did okay at SFS).
      
      So – the total figures,
      AFL finals, 9 matches, capacity 793,500, att 625K, 79% to capacity.
      the others 15 matches as above, capacity 932,300, att 700K, 75% to capacity.
      
      For what it matters.
      
      Reply
- dasilva said | October 29th 2009 @ 9:07am | Report comment
  
  I don’t think people should discredit this participation rate.
  
  It says one thing
  
  The fact is football is popular in Australia
  
  It is part of the culture in Australia
  
  However Football success does not translate to A-league success
  
  To say australian don’t like Football is an erroneous statement.
  
  Unfortunately Football fans in Australia is a pretty divided bunch of people and the football fans are competing with Football from overseas
  
  THerefore the mission from FFA isn’t to attract fans from different codes. It is to attract people who are already fans of Football to follow Australian Football. We are making some progress in that. Remember a while back, the Socceroos apart from the few WCQ or glamour matches weren’t that popular. We had the likes of Cahill playing to a crowd of 4-5k or less.
  
  NOw the next challenge is to get them to support A-league which is far more difficult task. However if A-league ever does become really popular in Australia, it’ won’t do this by cannibalise any other code but by uniting football fans.
  
  Reply
  - Michael C said | October 29th 2009 @ 9:48am | Report comment
    
    just like basketball,
    
    big numbers,
    
    but, big numbers in both genders, big numbers in ‘social’ levels, big numbers in older age groups.
    
    And where’ basketball in this country.
    
    High participation is obviously preferable to stuff all participation. But, even the Socceroos and FFA had a wake up call when the flavour of the month Socceroos only attracted 20,000 to Etihad for a crucial Asian Cup qualifier.
    
    This tells us that either the Socceroos aren’t an automatic walk up start by themselves, or, if they are, then $50 a ticket is too steep.
    
    Reply
Brett McKay said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:16am | Report comment

Deliberate copy/paste from the other “our code will be biggest” thread:

are we really going down this tackle-swinging path again?? And better yet, there’s another thread today saying [NRL] will overtake everything too.

Everyone’s looking to overtake everyone, oh yay….

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katzilla said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:26am | Report comment

‘Football has already taken over those other sports. Participation rates,’

Are you talking about kicking a Solo can down the street?

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- Pippinu said | October 29th 2009 @ 7:30am | Report comment
  
  That’s a great ad!
  
  Reply
  - Michael C said | October 29th 2009 @ 8:29am | Report comment
    
    in the paper the other day, a letter in 50/50 asking whether that fellow in the drink ad put his can in the bin.
    
    (for the writers benefit..that fellow would be Harry…….what’s'is name…….)
    
    at least the ‘can’ made an impression.
    
    Reply