By Untimely zapped
October 30th 2009 @ 1:16am
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Wallaby tour will end as it starts, with a loss
The first game of the Wallabies’ tour carries some disturbing psychological baggage – the Wallabies haven’t scored a try against the All Blacks in more than 200 minutes of Test rugby.
And it’s not as if they’ve been playing a wonderful team. In the 2009 Tri-Nations, counting all six games, the All Blacks scored just 10 more points than were scored against them, which means that either the Kiwis’ attack is lacking, or their defence is.
Or both are shaky.
Still, I believe the All Blacks will again come out on top, especially with Smith and Sivi back and Rodney determined to show who’s boss.
They’re 34 points better than the Wallabies in the last three Tests, and they’re packed with experience – seven of the starting team have 390 caps between them.
The Wallabies have players with lots of caps, too, but few have the talent of their opposite numbers. I’m backing the All Blacks to win all their games on their tour except for the one against the French.
That one might be a point too far.
It pains me, but I feel the Wallabies will have to beat Scotland to avoid a whitewash. For a hard tour like this, which includes mid-week games, you need bench strength and the team just hasn’t got anybody, outside of George Smith if he stays on the bench, to come on and turn the game around.
Apart from Ioane and AAC, we don’t have any bet-the-farm game breakers in the backs unless Deans finally plays Giteau at I/C.
In the forwards, we have Elsom who can make a difference, and a first class prop. And if Palu can’t be talked into getting out there and bullying people, we don’t have a No.8.
Bottom line is, even if the English, Irish and Welsh packs do contain second choices or players who’ve been off their feed, they’ll still be better than our front five.
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(51)
Eiger said | October 30th 2009 @ 3:56am | Report comment
Dont think so Zapped, the English forwards taking the pitch arent so much as second choices as 3rd, 4th or 5th. Dont know how you can right such drivel when all of their first choice picks last November were shown up, so dont think Johnson’s choices this time round will be putting the fear of god into our tight 5.
pothale said | October 30th 2009 @ 4:06am | Report comment
But his overall premise is not drivel, Eiger.
He said that the tour will end as it starts – with a loss. Australia start against New Zealand, and finish against Wales. Two teams who they lost to last time they played them.
Knives Out said | October 30th 2009 @ 4:20am | Report comment
Yes, quite Pothale. Anyhow, as rugby fans we all know that being first choice tends to mean you are good at something specific and not necesarily everything. The English scrum was poor last Autumn (but certainly not as much as the subsequent myth would suggest), but the English forwards dominated the ruck contest. My opinion is that any of the second rate props like Flatman (who hasn’t been slected), White and Bell would dominate most opposition. Here’s hoping that those Australian forwards are as over confident as you, Eiger.
Eiger said | October 30th 2009 @ 7:56pm | Report comment
Disagree, still think its drivel, but then, thats the great range of opinions that are on the roar. Its all swings and roundabouts though isnt it? Do well in one areas and let another slip a little. I was at the game last November KO so I dont actually need to cite myth – the English pack were shown up – pure and simple, they may well have dominated the ruck contest but that doesnt really matter, they still lost.
Knives Out said | October 30th 2009 @ 11:51pm | Report comment
Why were you at the match if you don’t understand rugby, Eiger? Did you win a competition? How can a pack be shown up if it dominates such an important part of the game? If you were a fan then you would have noticed that Al Baxter did his usual and collapsed time and time again. I think what you’re trying to suggest is that Australia had a powerful scrum, which it certainly did but unfortunately most of Australia’s penalties that arose from the scrum came from arbitrary refereeing rather than good technical scrummaging. You can make juvenile generic comments about the 3rd string English forwards all you like (‘they still lost’ – ho ho ho.. genius!) but I doubt you know much about them, and even if you did then you still ignore the key point which is that certain players are chosen for their ability to excel at various aspects of the game. Phil Vickery was chosen as the 1st choice tighthead on the Lions tour and was exposed as a scrummager. Adam Jones – the 2nd choice 3 – came in and absolutely reduced Mtawarira to looking like the poor scrummaging prop that he is.
Go_the_Wannabe's said | October 30th 2009 @ 11:13am | Report comment
The Enzedders won in Wellington because they didn’t want to be known as the losingest side in AB history – 3 home losses in a season? Unthinkable for them – we never stood a chance…….now the shoe is on the other foot……can the Wannabe’s motivate themselves to not be the losingest Wannabe’s ever and lose 4 on the trot to the AB’s? Sadly, I think not. This dysfunctional group don’t have any sense tribalism or the ticker for it all.
You see, It’s all about money these days. Until they hit them in the hip pocket, nothing’s going to turn them around. So how do you fix that? Here’s an idea…..if all they care about is the hip pocket, then make it a $10/player bonus payment for a loss and $50,000/player bonus for a win, come what may (other than their normal salary, of course). That’s how you turn it around!!!!!
Now, predictions for the rest of the debacle laughingly known as the GS tour:
1. vs English Petals – 2 teams here competing to be the most dysfunctional of all time – tough one to call really. After the loss to the AB’s in Tokyo, Gits will move to IC, Cooper to 5/8, 2 Dads back to FB, JOC to the bench. Aussie Golden Wattles by 4.
2. vs. Irish Bog Hunters – Pouring rain of course with 80,000 Landsdowne Lunatics baying for blood…….like, well, Irish blood hounds anyway. After several injuries in the previous match JOC tried at IC with Gits at 5/8. Doesn’t matter who else plays in backs because the mud encrusted ball will never get to them anyway. The fighting Irish win 9-3 to the delight of the fans. Rocky Elsom suspended by Deans for 1 match because he tackled his own players all day. You can take the boy out of Ireland…..
3. vs. The Thistly Scottish – Yes, they will be very prickly indeed due to all the write ups of them being the only sure win of the tour for the Wannabe’s. And they’re right. Remaining Wannabe’s squad without injuries plays a dour match…..Deans has to warm bench (and gets a run with 5 min’s to go)……Wannabe’s win freest flowing match yet…..12-3 (4 penalties to 1).
4. Ahhhh, now who’s left? Yes that’s right, the Welsh Rarebits…….no chance here for the Wannabe’s. They have never beaten Osprey (I think) at Cardiff. So how the heck are they going to beat the test side????? These Taffies will have been tuning up on some of the best sides in the world just before the Aussies Lambs head to the slaughter. This will be unfortunately humiliating. Barnes makes his comeback (because there’s no other backs left standing) at 5/8. Gits is shunted to IC but throws the toys out of the cot because he’s lost the VC (again) and his position (again). Barnes is so rusty he wouldn’t have made the Cobar Camels 3rd grade anyway. Deans retires from professional coaching after being on the receiving end of a 38-0 thumping and moves back over the dutch to open a B&B in Invercargill.
Phew, what a tour…..I’m glad that’s over (but not as glad as Dingo will be!). I can hardly wait until the next year’s TN when we at least have the excuse of being hammered by the no.1 & 2 teams in the world!!!!!
It’s a good thing we’re at the bottom of the trough and we’re on the way up again for the RWC in 2011. Right???? Yeah, right.
Dean Pantio said | October 30th 2009 @ 1:24pm | Report comment
“lose 4 on the trot to the AB’s?” They’re on a six test losing streak now. They lost five in a row in 2005-06. They lost seven in a row in 1995-97.
Go_the_Wannabe's said | October 30th 2009 @ 2:30pm | Report comment
4 BC tests on the trot this year. Sorry, my mistake for not fully clarifying that important point in my spiel earlier.
Knives Out said | October 30th 2009 @ 4:27am | Report comment
Right.. back to the article. I’m not sure how Australia will go during the tour. Saturday’s game will be informative. I have a sneaking suspicion that NZ are growing in confidence and will really roll the Wallabies. That said, history has taught us to beware a wounded Australia.
pothale said | October 30th 2009 @ 5:03am | Report comment
New Zealand will get hammered by a resurgent Australia who will then lay waste to all of the home unions and clubs in the NH.
Except for Ireland of course to whom they’ll lose by 2 tries scored by John Hayes lurking on the wing.
Knives Out said | October 30th 2009 @ 5:12am | Report comment
I imagine that Hayes has been doing a lot of sprint training and track work during his gardening leave.
pothale said | October 30th 2009 @ 6:37am | Report comment
Yip – he was spotted the other day chasing after a heifer – and it was moving at a fair clip.
I’ve decided that after reading all and sundry about the Wallabies chances of winning any of their matches on tour, and the opposition generally licking its lips looking to dine out on Wallaby chops each weekend in November, that the only team that is really lying in wait for them is Scotland.
Even the Wallabies figure they’ll beat them despite all their woes since they’re ‘not really a test team’. Wonder has Robinson got anything up his sleeve?
Knives Out said | October 30th 2009 @ 7:10am | Report comment
Wow. That must have been one fast cow. I heard a funny story a few months ago about Buckley and Hayes going shooting together. Imagine the sight of two 6′4 20 stoners plodding through the countryside with a shotgun over their right shoulder. That would make a good Christmas card from the Munster team.
I’m not buying into all this sinking HMS Wallaby banter. They’re no mugs. Talking of mugs… the only thing Robinson has up his sleeve is his losing dinner speech.
pothale said | October 30th 2009 @ 7:40am | Report comment
I agree about HMS Wobbly. I can see it now, a victory over NZ and then England and suddenly the world will be turned. We only had a few schoolboys and half a cat left in the squad and we still went out and beat them, etc, etc
Australia attempting to be underdog isn’t going to work. this is a team ranked third in the world and that benefits continually from playing the top two teams regularly every year. Would that we all could benefit from that.
Was thinking about this the other day. It perpetuates the teams who occupy the top 3 ranks and long periods they remain there e.g. a Lions tour every four years means none of the HN get a chance to play matches away. Ireland last played SA and Aus at home in 2006 and in 2004 before that. They played them away about 2 years ago, and won’t play them next year. There’s an invitational test match for the opener of the new Lansdowne Road in November. But unless you play the top 3 on a absolute regular basis, you’re rarely going to compete for top 3 ranking. And with the nature of the seasons, that’s unlikely to happen.
Knives Out said | October 30th 2009 @ 7:44am | Report comment
It’s a bloody SH conspiracy. I’m not sure I see the point in regular NH away tours until the length of season issues are rectified. When NH teams travel down under they tend to play a two match series and get thumped, as opposed to the 1 match away game that the SH teams play in the Autumn. How much would this 2:1 ratio affect the rankings over a prolongued period?
Rusty said | October 30th 2009 @ 8:48am | Report comment
It would depend on the results wouldnt it. Frances win over the ABs this spring for instance significantly improved their ranking from 8th to 5th while reducing the ABs points. If the French could have backed up the first win it would have been quite likely they would have been catapulted into the top 3 at the expense of Australia. So, I dont think it matters about ratios etc- the key is simply to win your games be they home or away. Also, if anything the two bites of the cherry away from home is your best chance to maximise on ranking points all year.
Knives Out said | October 30th 2009 @ 11:52pm | Report comment
But what I’m saying is that the chances of a NH away win are miniscule due to myriad reasons, so they’re just shipping points.
Hammer said | October 30th 2009 @ 9:18am | Report comment
There is method in that madness of yours Pot – look how the Wallabies were very fortunate against Italy on their last 2 northern trips and Scotland could well be as big a banana skin as possibly their midweek fixtures ….
Jecker said | October 30th 2009 @ 6:55am | Report comment
Re the loss of Barnes – Ryan Cross is quoted as saying “Hopefully, it won’t change too much.” We have news for you, Ryan – it’s going to change a hell of a lot. For starters, it puts James O’Connor at FB for the AB game, and he’s still too young and too short to play that position on an international stage. He could be a winger in the Shane Williams mode, or a centre in the Horan mode, but Dingo seems to be the kind that doesn’t want to believe his eyes – witness the way he insists on trying to make a natural 12 into a 10.
It also puts Cooper in a Wallaby guernsey and while a lot of Oz rugby fans think he could be tremendous, a lot think he could be anything but. And the bookies who took bets on a Wallaby win are breathing easier because Barnes is pretty good at the snap.
So now Untimely’s post, specially the bit about the Wallaby bench being less than great, is looking pretty smart what with Horne already gone and Tyrone Smith in the tour, a guy who wasn’t thought good enough to make it originally. And anyone who thinks the bench isn’t so bad, take a look at the some of the replacements: Dunning, Burgess, Mitchell – we need replacements for the replacements.
Justin said | October 30th 2009 @ 7:01am | Report comment
Deans showing his selection genius again!
Bloody hell, lets not have one player out of position in the backs, lets have two! Surely the smartest move is to keep 2 Dads at 15 and put, gee shock horror, an inside centre to 12, that being JOC!
The last time Cross and AAC played together it was a disaster and dont JOC and Cross play in the centres together at the Force? Oh and isnt some guy called Gits their 5/8!
The simplicity is there for all to see except Drongo Deans….
Hansie said | October 30th 2009 @ 9:45am | Report comment
Yep, exactly.
Harry said | October 30th 2009 @ 8:17am | Report comment
JOC at fullback against NZ = disaster.
AAC and Cross at centre v SA = disaster.
Ioane, no game for 6 games = potential disaster.
Softy Chisolm and inexperienced Alexander starting in tight 5 looks potentail disaster.
Even Scotland’s looking iffy as the forwards are extremely vulnerable, and if, as is likely, we get hammered on the weekend, we have no depth at all and it could get extremely ugly.
Darkest hour before the dawn … is this it? Or are the next 5 weeks going to be the worst for Wallabies supporters since the mid 70’s?
mudskipper said | October 30th 2009 @ 9:04am | Report comment
Wallabies please put Tyrone into 12 and AAC back to full back… Tyrone last years Rookie in 2008 has plenty to offer and excellent defense and speed…
The All Blacks see O’Connor as a weakness at 15.
Unconditional said | October 30th 2009 @ 9:43am | Report comment
My suggestion….. All Blacks by 14. Wallabies are not ready for this Kiwi onslaught. And the fact that Berrick Barnes has rolled his ankle is not doing the boys in canary yellow any favours. KIA KAHA!!!
Hoy said | October 30th 2009 @ 9:59am | Report comment
It is getting frustrating now.
REALLY FRUSTRATING!!!
Some selections are making no sense whatsoever. I am a fan of Robbie, but I would love to hear him explain his reasons for selections.
I will say this, Cooper, whilst topsy turvy for the Reds, hasn’t played badly for the Wallabies. I am not sure how long that can continue, but he has even played well I thought in a few of his cameos. I don’t think him to the bench is that bad a decision.
Tight Head Prop said | October 30th 2009 @ 10:38am | Report comment
Untimely zapped
Our front 5 who you claim to be crap smashed SA in the last game they played and the AB changed their front row to combat the Wallaby front row.
Now they have finally woke up and flicked Baxter the Wallaby scrum will become a force.
Wallabies to get the Grand Slam and Saturday night as well.
Hammer said | October 30th 2009 @ 11:11am | Report comment
So THP – how did this this new improved pack that are destined to be a force play last up ? …
Wins on tour – Wallabies to pick up 1 midweek game and squeek home against the Scots
Knives Out said | October 31st 2009 @ 1:20am | Report comment
The All Blacks changed their front row which subsequently handed out a lesson in smack down, THP.
rich1612 said | October 30th 2009 @ 12:15pm | Report comment
Don’t understand why AAC gets moved from position to position.
I think he’s a good fullback, not great but good, a bit like Marty Roebuck. You can depend on him.
JOC is currently very risky, especially under pressure. We have seen him not handle the high ball well, make poor clearances, make ineffective tackles and isn’t a great kicker. What he is, is fats, an elusive runner and unconventional. Seems like a good winger to me.
Barnes is a big loss, difficult to come up with a replacement but I think I would like to see with Cooper or Beale be given a go at 12.
NickF said | October 30th 2009 @ 12:53pm | Report comment
God I’m sick of articles all about statistics.
Any argument can be helped with stats.
“seven of the starting team have 390 caps between them”
What does this mean. George Smith has over 100 all by himself, and he is starting from the bench!
NZ is “34 points better than the Wallabies in the last three Tests” yet “the All Blacks scored just 10 more points than were scored against them” So what. Austealia against the All Blacks were crap, the score was flattering to the Wallabies, but before that they were great against the world cup holders.
I can’t remember the last time stats helped me to predict the next game, and stats won’t help me understand the current form of the Australian Wallabies. All I know is that without Barnes and a dysfunctional backline that we have had this year it doesn’t look positive for a good tour, but hey, anything can happen.
Who Needs Melon said | October 30th 2009 @ 12:56pm | Report comment
“Unconditional” made his call above. Let’s hear from the rest of you?
Mine is pretty close to “Unconditional”s – i.e. I think we’re going to get walloped again. Sorry – I’m a true blue aussie fan and all but I also recognise when ‘a positive attitude’ verges over into ’sheer fantasy’.
I’d LOVE to be dead wrong but I think the All Blacks will win this comfortably – by, say, 12 points.
And unfortunately I think the loss will have a real negative impact on the rest of the tour. To end on the only positive note I can muster at the moment, I only hope that some of the players at least come back tougher from having faced so many tough experiences.
Harry said | October 30th 2009 @ 1:51pm | Report comment
Prediction for the weekend:
NZ by 15, NZ to be out of sight (thats more than 2 converted tries or more ahead) by half time as our poorly selected backline is exposed. Kiwi’s to take the foot of the pedal when the lead gets over 21 and thoughts of more serious upcoming challenges in Europe predominate, allowing the Walls a meaningless try or 2 in the last 20 minutes, and the usual post match crap about how we “showed improvement” and “are heading in the right direction, just need to sharpen our execution”. Robinson or Elsom to have tour ending injury.
Me to dig out the RWC 91 and 99 videos to sustain the soul for the coming month.
Ben C said | October 30th 2009 @ 1:09pm | Report comment
WNM
Sadly a walloping is on the cards. Like many in the last two threads about the tour, I am beginning to question some of Dean’s selection although I also wonder what help he is getting from the assistant coaches.
AB by 15.
reds fan said | October 30th 2009 @ 1:37pm | Report comment
AB’s win by 20+
England win by 12 (all pens kicked by Johnny)
Ireland win by 14 (two converted tries better than us)
Scotland lose by 3
Wales win by 21 (three converted tries better than us.)
Deans sacked in Feb.
Harry said | October 30th 2009 @ 2:13pm | Report comment
Was preapred to give Deans the benefit of the doubt until now but major loss of faith in his repeated selection of JOC at 15 and shuffling poor old AAC round the backline. Barnes failure to be fit consistently, and our forwards softness, is killing the reign of Aussie Rob. Crazy also his promotion and conversion of Alexander to starting tighthead prop, there are no shortcuts to a long hard apprenticeship in this position.
Tight Head Prop said | October 30th 2009 @ 1:40pm | Report comment
And all this from a Reds Fan! hope that Man U and not Queensland? After all you lot really know your rugby hahahaha
reds fan said | October 30th 2009 @ 1:45pm | Report comment
I’d love to be wrong Tight Head!
JustinB said | October 30th 2009 @ 8:55pm | Report comment
Something for all you Wallaby supporters to think about this weekend:
Recent results:
2009: New Zealand won 33-6 in Wellington
2009: New Zealand won 19-18 in Sydney
2009: New Zealand won 22-16 in Auckland
2008: New Zealand won 19-14 in Hong Kong
2008: New Zealand won 28-24 in Brisbane
2008: New Zealand won 39-10 in Auckland
2008: Australia won 34-19 in Sydney
2007: New Zealand won 26-12 in Auckland
2007: Australia won 20-15 in Melbourne
2006: New Zealand won 34-27 in Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 13-9 in Brisbane
2006: New Zealand won 32-12 in Christchurch
2005: New Zealand won 34-24 in Auckland
2005: New Zealand won 30-13 in Sydney
2004: Australia won 23-18 in Sydney
2004: New Zealand won 16-7 in Wellington
Pretty dismal really.
funmaster said | October 31st 2009 @ 12:12am | Report comment
And what would the NZ vs SA recent results be JustinB?
JustinB said | November 1st 2009 @ 7:57pm | Report comment
here you go: RSA vs NZ since 2004 (winning team listed after the date)
24 July 2004 All Blacks 23-21 Jade Stadium Christchurch 2004 Tri Nations
14 August 2004 Springboks 40-26 Ellis Park Johannesburg 2004 Tri Nations
6 August 2005 Springboks 22-16 Newlands Cape Town 2005 Tri Nations
27 August 2005 All Blacks 31-27 Carisbrook Dunedin 2005 Tri Nations
22 July 2006 All Blacks 35-17 Westpac Stadium Wellington 2006 Tri Nations
26 August 2006 All Blacks 45-26 Loftus Versfeld Pretoria 2006 Tri Nations
2 September 2006 Springboks 21-20 Royal Bafokeng Stadium Rustenburg 2006 Tri Nations
23 June 2007 All Blacks 26-21 Kings Park Stadium Durban 2007 Tri Nations
14 July 2007 All Blacks 33-6 Jade Stadium Christchurch 2007 Tri Nations
5 July 2008 All Blacks 19-8 Westpac Stadium Wellington 2008 Tri Nations
12 July 2008 Springboks 30-28 Carisbrook Dunedin 2008 Tri Nations
16 August 2008 All Blacks 19-0 Newlands Stadium Cape Town 2008 Tri Nations
25 July 2009 Springboks 28-19 Free State Stadium Bloemfontein 2009 Tri Nations
1 August 2009 Springboks 31-19 Kings Park Stadium Durban 2009 Tri Nations
12 September 2009 Springboks 32-29 Waikato Stadium Hamilton 2009 Tri Nations
RSA 7
NZ 8
Pretty even don’t you think?
Armchair-critic said | November 1st 2009 @ 8:09pm | Report comment
I think this shows the boks amazing turnaround this year.
They only won 2 games in last years entire 3N and this year they were near unstoppable.
Perhaps a glimmer of hope for Wallaby fans
Viscount Crouchback said | October 31st 2009 @ 12:27am | Report comment
The spine of this Australian team is horribly weak. 2,5,9,10,15 – there are question marks over every single one of them.
mcxd said | October 31st 2009 @ 1:42am | Report comment
add 1, 4, starting 7, defintely 8, 12 & 13 and youll be right.
Tight Head Prop said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:23pm | Report comment
Well the scrum was good as predicted now all we need is seven more forwards on the field and we will win a game
Knives Out said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:27pm | Report comment
That’s not what the ref thought.
Australia needs a proper 3. Alexander struggled.
Armchair-critic said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:29pm | Report comment
I disagree. I thought Alexander was very solid particularly in the first half – the only penalty came when the Wallabies screwed the scrum.
It was Robinson who was penalised for going to ground in the 2nd half
Knives Out said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:31pm | Report comment
The scrum kept wheeling, and not because of Robinson.
Armchair-critic said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:41pm | Report comment
Isn’t the tactic these days – wheel the scrum to gain a turnover or atleast disrupt opposition ball.
And i cant see how the wheeling of the scrum can be put solely down to one prop, mind you i have never been involved in one so can’t say it’s my area of expertise!
Knives Out said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:46pm | Report comment
‘Isn’t the tactic these days – wheel the scrum to gain a turnover or atleast disrupt opposition ball.’
Not on nearly every single put in. Purposeful wheeling is illegal.
Let me give you an example of how a scrum wheeling could be put attributed to one prop. In the 07 WC SF (Argentina v SA), Os du Randt and Martin Scelzo cancelled each other out. On the other side of the scrum Rodrigo Roncero drilled CJ van der Linde, hence the scrum wheeled. Let me add that Woodcock gave Alexander a going over the last time they met.
Stash said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:51pm | Report comment
George Smith was great of the bench – Digby is class – Oconnor done his best deer in the headlights impersonation yet again – the kids good but the ABs are his vodoo team.
Gineau is your best half-back.
Some nice touches by the all blacks when they were in the Wallabies 22 – hard to defend when the flow is on with some slick passing by the backs.
Carters boot was in devastating form today.
tighthead prop said | October 31st 2009 @ 9:59pm | Report comment
for those who don’t know there a two wheels in a Scrum, conventional and reverse.
In a conventional wheel, which is the easier of the two to perform the loose head pushes and the tighthead pulls back.
In the reverse wheel which is much harder to achieve the TH pushes and the LH goes back. As most wheels are conventional to the untrained eye or back it looks like the TH is getting pushed back whereas that’s the objective.
There was minimal repacks tonight so I as a TH would say Alexander did his job well