By sheek
November 3rd 2009 @ 2:05am
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Cummings the Bradman of Aussie horseracing
It’s Melbourne Cup time again, and the papers are awash with a possible trifecta for Bart Cummings, who has, yes, three runners in the Cup – Viewed, Roman Emperor and Allez Wonder.
Picking the winner of the Melbourne Cup is the damnedest thing going, which is what makes ‘The Cup’ so very special – everyone is looking for “the edge” over the TAB, Sportsbet, bookies and fellow punters.
The Cup distance of 3200 metres (2 miles) separates men from boys, the wise from the wishful, and champions from wannabees. You could have a horse that has won all its lead-up races, but then fails to run out the distance.
Or you could have a champion weight-for-age horse (where everyone meets on equal terms) who wins everything in the lead-up, but is then crippled by a huge weight.
There are several keys to picking the Melbourne Cup winner, and even then, it doesn’t mean it will work out for you.
1. Pedigree. The horse must be bred to run the distance. Even better if it has previous good 3200 metres form to show. But just to keep us on our toes, there are exceptions to the rule. Like Saintly in 1996, who was supposed to be unable to run the distance according to his breeding. But Bart was his trainer.
2. Form leading in. The horse doesn’t have to have won lead-up races. The key is how strongly the horse has finished in its races. Remember, most lead-up races are no more than 2400 metres. At this distance in The Cup, they’re just warming up!
3. Caulfield Cup. Historically, this has been the most reliable form guide for The Cup. Form doesn’t really change all that much in the 17 days between the CC and the MC. Look for horses that ran well at the end of the CC, without necessarily winning or placing, although it’s better if they did.
4. Weight. The Cup is a handicap, so a moderate ability, lightly weighted horse can come into the picture against a better quality horse, but carrying more weight. However, lead-in form still counts. No point carrying a feather weight if the horse is a dud.
5. Experience. You can’t buy experience. Occasionally you will get the fairytale ending, but not too often. Stick with proven trainers and jockeys. The atmosphere will ‘destroy” horses, jockeys and trainers who aren’t used to the massive atmosphere.
Everyone’s talking about Bart, and with good reason. Like most people, I’m going to back Bart’s 3 horses in a box trifecta, along with three other horses – Daffodil, Shocking and one other (haven’t decided who yet).
Remember the old saying, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. Okay, short prices mean lower returns, but they’re also more likely.
Viewed and Roman Emperor quinella-ed (1st and 2nd) the Caulfield Cup, and will be in the picture again. I’m even wondering if RE might reverse the order with Viewed?
Daffodil raced home into fourth in the CC, and must be respected. I’m cool on Alcopop, who is mostly a country horse, being ridden by a jockey in his first MC. I reckon both horse and jockey will be overwhelmed by the occasion (famous last words!).
Viewed is almost a sure thing, but as we know, there’s no such thing as a sure thing! His form is even better than lat year when he won. He has a better jockey this time, and I’m confident he can carry the weight, which is probably the only concern.
I have a soft spot for Shocking, especially jockey Corey Brown, who was beaten on Bauer last year by the barest of margins. There isn’t enough space to discuss all the horses, unfortunately.
By the way, pay no attention to talk of barrier positions.
They might be important in a 1600 metres race, but are irrelevant in a 3200 metres race. The key is for the jockey to get into a good position early, then ride his horse quietly (conserving energy) until making his run from anywhere after the 400 metres from home.
it’s a long straight, and Blake Shinn nearly blew it last year on Viewed by going early in the run home, but just held on.
It’s incredible to think Bart and I go way back to 1965, when he won his very first Melbourne Cup with Light Fingers. I was 9 years old and my folks, struggling to pick the winner, did what I reckon many parents do – they asked the kids!
After enquiring about the meaning of some horses’ names, I settled on Light Fingers. My fate with Bart was sealed. Why did I pick Light Fingers?
Because Light Fingers refers to a particularly clever type of thief, and one of my boyhood heroes at that time was Robin Hood, who stole from the rich and gave to the poor.
Light Fingers was trained by Bart and ridden by ‘The Professor’ Roy Higgins. Over the next 15 years I tipped/punted on horses trained by Bart and/or ridden by Higgins. They invariably won, and I mistakenly thought I was a tipping genius!!
Today, Melbourne Cup history beckons for Bart, who will soon turn 82 years of age. incredible!
Will he win The Cup, his 13th? Will he become the first person to train all 3 placegetters?
Will he achieve his 6th quinella (1st and 2nd)? Can he become the 3rd person to train the winner of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the one spring carnival?
Can Viewed become the 11th horse to win both the CC and MC in the one carnival? Yes, history beckons for Bart.
Bart is the Bradman of Australian horse racing. The Babe Ruth, the Pele, the Tiger Woods, the Jordan of his sport.
As Chris Handy might say, “Go Bart, go you good thing!”
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(17)
sheek said | November 3rd 2009 @ 5:54am | Report comment
As you go about your business today, talking with family, friends & work colleagues, contemplating where to place your bets on The Cup, here’s another piece of advice – hold your nerve.
Advice & info will come from everywhere! If you have your own tried & true formula, stick to it.
Other than that, enjoy the day. The Melbourne Cup is the most difficult of races to predict. It’s the one race most Aussies have a flutter on, yet it’s the one race you should keep your money in your wallet.
But it’s the great uncertainty that makes this race so special. There’s roughly 3 minutes & 20 seconds of racing for you to do your dough, or strike it rich!
Justin said | November 3rd 2009 @ 8:46am | Report comment
Sheek – nice artilce.
If Bart is the Bradman of racing what is TJ Smith???
sheek said | November 3rd 2009 @ 9:04am | Report comment
Justin – good question.
Perhaps Smithy is the (Victor) Trumper of horse racing?
Although personality-wise, the hard-nosed Smith & Bradman are similar, while the witty Cummings & charming Trumper are also graceful soul mates!
MyGeneration said | November 3rd 2009 @ 11:28am | Report comment
Could someone edit the heading of this article and get Bart’s surname right?
MyGeneration said | November 3rd 2009 @ 11:58am | Report comment
Thankyou
Pippinu said | November 3rd 2009 @ 1:55pm | Report comment
Two minutes from the start.
My amateurish cup pack triple (including kids’ selections):
Spin Around
Baslatico
Capecover
Kazama said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:29pm | Report comment
17th, 18th & 20th…
Kazama said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:09pm | Report comment
Had Mourilyan e/w… so made some pocket money but not much…
MyGeneration said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:20pm | Report comment
1st and 3rd in the trifecta – sigh…..
Pippinu said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:22pm | Report comment
Mygen
you been holding out on us again!
MyGeneration said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:32pm | Report comment
I’ve had Shocking luck, Pip, but it’s not a Crime Scene. I’ll have to get a translation from Chechen to find a pun for the third horse.
Kazama said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:28pm | Report comment
Who let you down?
MyGeneration said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:35pm | Report comment
Viewed. Thought he could do it again. Pretty good trainer, apparently. But all credit to Shocking. Had the bad barrier and no favours in running, won comfortably.
Brett McKay said | November 3rd 2009 @ 2:22pm | Report comment
Had Shocking e/w amongst others, so I’ve got my money back at least…
vinay verma said | November 3rd 2009 @ 3:29pm | Report comment
Sheek..can you use your ties with Bart to get him to name a horse Chiken Tikka or Tandoori Lad…I haven’t backed a winner since Rogan Josh….and no he shouldn’t name it Hot Trots.
Seriously though, the MC is another patchwork in the quilt that is Australia. You just have to go into any TAB and see the diverse mix of people who stop what they are doing for 4 minutes. It is a fantastic lead in to the Summer sports and starts retailers and customers thinking of Xmas. It is a tradition and institution ,like Test Cricket,that needs preserving.
MyGeneration said | November 3rd 2009 @ 4:13pm | Report comment
God bless the Lucky Last and Flying Tessie!
sheek said | November 3rd 2009 @ 7:35pm | Report comment
Sighhhh……….!