How Shocking that the experts got it so wrong
Columnist
By Spiro Zavos, 4 Nov 2009 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- Horse Racing, Melbourne Cup, SCG, Shocking, TAB
Corey Brown rides Shocking winning the 2009 Melbourne Cup during the 2009 Emirates Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington. Slattery Images
There are are two ways to punctuate the question: how good were the expert picks for the Melbourne Cup!? The exclamation punctuation suggests that the experts were spot on. But the question mark punctuation, which goes with this Roar, suggests that they were mug punters (like you and me) rather than gurus of the turf.
I spent most of Tuesday at the SCG watching some interesting spells of leg spin bowling from Steve Smith, and the West Australian batsmen grinding out their runs on a flat, slowish track and under an intense sun.
Around 2 o’clock, I strolled down to the TAB and placed an each way bet on Master O’Reilly (because I’m a long time admirer of the great bowler and SMH cricket columnist), and another each way bet on Zavite, which I initially misread as Zavrite, a concept I fully endorse.
Zavrite was up among the leaders early on and then faded away. Master O’Reilly may still be running, for all I know. So, for another year, I lost my annual gambling expenditure of $20 dollars.
I reckon the money is well-spent for the thought of the hundreds of dollars I might have collected if one of my horses had come in.
I was somewhat consoled, too, when I went back to the newspapers and read what the experts were picking.
The Fairfax stable of experts did not pick the winner Shocking.
How shocking!
Among them, they picked Alcopop, View, C’est la Guerre, and Daffodil. For what it’s worth, Betfair sponsored one of the SMH online tipping segments.
The Australian’s late call expert reckoned Master O’Reilly was the best bet of the day.
The Daily Telegraph experts picked Viewed, Viewed, Viewed, Roman Emperor, Viewed, Viewed and Alcopop.
Nathan Rees picked Roman Emperor.
Perhaps his sub-conscious was at work here and his choice of a winner reflected more the internalised desire to give a thumbs down to some of his party opponents after his job.
The only person quizzed by The Daily Telegraph who picked the winner was Kevin Rudd. The Prime Minister was impressed, he said, with Shocking’s performance in the Lexus Quality.
Perhaps the Prime Minister might like to take over the job as racing editor of the SMH or The Daily Telegraph when his political days are over.
It might be unkind to say this (and The Roar shouldn’t get into politics, I know) but right now Rudd is better at picking a winner of the Melbourne Cup than he seems to be picking a winning policy on the refugee race to get to Australia.
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- Explore:
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sheek said | November 4th 2009 @ 4:49am | Report comment
Spiro,
One thing I’ve learnt is not to listen to the experts – they have no more idea than the average mug punter.
I made the comment to my work colleagues this was one of the more predictable Melbourne Cup fields, with only a few genuine chances.
Yeah….. right!
I picked Shocking to finish 3rd, although I said I had a soft spot for jockey Corey Brown, who was pipped last year by the barest margin. I never considered 2nd or 3rd as serious contenders. Master O’Reilly ran well for another 4th.
In a Roar article yesterday, I suggested Viewed was as close to a sure thing, although we know there is no such thing as a sure thing….. how prescient of me!!!
I thought Brad Rawiller rode a bad race on Viewed, having him too far back when it mattered most. I watched Viewed threading his way through the field, but he couldn’t find sufficient open ground to wind up.
One thing I forgot to mention in my article was the role of the jockey. I hinted at it, but wasn’t specific. There’s usually 22 to 24 runners in a MC field. That’s plenty of horses to take into consideration.
It’s a long journey, & jockeys need to be aware of what’s happening around them the whole journey. They not only require insight but patience also.
Anyway, that’s it for another year. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. There are so many variables with a Melbourne Cup which all go to make it so very special.
Justin said | November 4th 2009 @ 5:18pm | Report comment
Cant stand aftertimers…
Dave1 said | November 4th 2009 @ 5:35pm | Report comment
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26299663-2722,00.html
‘……….Shocking, which paid $9.80 on the TAB and was backed into single figures with several Rails bookmakers on track…..”
That means plenty of people thought it was going to win
fom the herald
http://www.smh.com.au/news/sport/horseracing/punters-expect-daffodil-to-bloom/2009/11/02/1257010150509.html
“……….Bookmakers offered $11 for Lexus Stakes winner Shocking to win the big one, and punters were happy to take it, backing him to win $400,000.
Big-betting bookie Tom Waterhouse is a Shocking fan, and still declared him to be ”way over the odds” after the Call of the Card.
”I think Shocking will win,” said Waterhouse, who added that he would be happy to lay Viewed and Alcopop for ”as much as I can” at Flemington today. ”I expect Viewed and Alcopop to be well backed by the rank and file punters, and Allez Wonder is another that I think the punters will come for [today],” he said.
”And I’ll even end up laying Shocking by the time the race comes around. He looks as though he is going to start at great odds on the tote though.”
TAB Sportsbet was inundated with punters wanting to back Shocking yesterday. Spokesman Glenn Munsie said the galloper was backed to win more than $1m.
”He firmed from $12 to $10 after we held $135,000 on Shocking today alone,” Munsie said last night…..”
MyGeneration said | November 4th 2009 @ 7:10pm | Report comment
I think Shocking was a pretty clear consensus third pick after Alcopop and Viewed, who both ran reasonable races without much luck.
The problem with once-a-year punters is they have an unreasonable expectation that someone, somewhere actually secretly knows who the winner is, but is keeping it from us poor mugs. The only secret is not to take bad odds – you might not win today, but you give yourself a chance in the long run. “Experts” aren’t telling you anything if they aren’t telling you what odds you should be looking for. On that criteria, Tom Waterhouse was the only thing close to an expert in any of the above.
Dave1 said | November 13th 2009 @ 4:55pm | Report comment
Its a hard race to picket the winner. Its a handicap not WFA, its over 3200 and hardly any races in Australia are run over that distance and it got horses form all over the world with different form lines. The punters did well in getting Shocking.
bever fever said | November 4th 2009 @ 7:32pm | Report comment
Don’t know the stats but i am hesitant to back any favourite let alone a Melbourne cup fav.
For the cup i always look for value as i do in any race and that is usually between 5′s and 10′s.
With the amount of money thrown at the cup the favourites should be good odds … anything below 5′s dont touch.
Backed a winner today that payed $21 … backed it because of a good jockey and its form writeup said it was not going to get anywhere….. think it was called Peace prize.
Bets way for most people is just throw darts….. drive yourself mad working out form.
bever fever said | November 4th 2009 @ 7:47pm | Report comment
More to that … i know i guy (its not me) at the local tavern where i will have a beer and bet after work or sometimes while on my way between jobs etc .
Anyways this guy is always there .. i mean always, he works at night and by the time the tavern opens in he goes paper in hand, ready for his days punting, this guy punts very little in dollars but knows every horse, trotter and dog in australia, their pedigree where there from, who their out off etc, knows every track, length of straights, longest dog tracks … you name it , he knows. Amazing knowledge this guy has but quite frankly it bores me to tears but he’s quite friendly and the banter is good.
Anyway to my point …. for all this info and knowledge this guy has he cannot pick a winner any more consistently than me or you.
MyGeneration said | November 4th 2009 @ 8:10pm | Report comment
Bever fever, I got into a cab in Sydney a few weeks ago on a Saturday when I had to work. The cabbie had the radio on very low on 2KY so I said he could turn it up if he wanted. We got to talking and he turned out to be like your mate – bet on everything: horses, dogs, trots, camels, and he knew his form too. Pulled out a pocket full of tickets before the trip was over, which were his hundred or so bets for the day, probably no more than $1 a bet. I’d say he probably gets back 85c in the dollar, like every TAB punter in the long run. But I bet he couldn’t get through the day just driving that cab.
To your point above, sometimes I think it’s more about doing the work and going through the process than the end result. It’s a way of keeping the mind active. I don’t think this guy was expecting to ever make a fortune from it.
Pippinu said | November 4th 2009 @ 8:16pm | Report comment
I once went to the trots at Bathurst, and started having a yarn with an old bloke who was about 80 years old. He’d matter of factly tell me who was going to win the next race – and he was right!!
First time, I’d say yeh whatever
Second time, hmmm.
Rest of the night – I was just raking it in!!
(I’m not a big trots man by the way – it was the one and only time I went – but when you’re stuck in Bathurst for a long stretch…)
bever fever said | November 4th 2009 @ 8:19pm | Report comment
Yes the key is dont expect to make a fortune out of punting, does anyone ever manage to do it… to many variables.
At any rate my take is, if you have a few bets/beers lose $100 and walk away you may do that for 11 saturdays in a row and not really miss it, but there may come a time when get lucky, back some 10, 15 and 20 shots in a day and win a grand.
Overall you are going to be behind but its good to have a big win.
Roni32 said | November 4th 2009 @ 9:35pm | Report comment
Can anyone tell me the clocked times for Shockings win in the Melbourne Cup yesterday 2009????
Dave1 said | November 13th 2009 @ 5:23pm | Report comment
Shocking ran 3:23.87