With Jonny back, it’ll be England in a canter

Roar Pro

By Alec Swann, 6 Nov 2009 Alec Swann is a Roar Pro

Tagged:: England rugby, International Rugby, jonny wilksinson, Martin Johnson, robbie deans, Rugby Union, wallabies

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England's Mathew Tait, left, and Jonny Wilkinson react on the podium after the Rugby World Cup final match between England and South Africa at the Stade de France stadium in Saint Denis, outside Paris, Saturday Oct.20, 2007. South Africa won the match 15-6. AP Photo/Matt Dunham

A supporter of any team should be worried when the coach states that it’s all about the performance and not the result. Apart from ignoring the obvious, that sport is competition and competition is about winning, it sends out all the wrong signals.

For that reason, in the build up to this Saturday’s Test against the Wallabies at Twickenham, it was disturbing to hear Martin Johnson make utterances to that effect.

The type of nonsensical coach-speak that shouldn’t even have a place before pre-season friendlies certainly shouldn’t find the light of day before an international.

It smacks of getting your excuses in before the event itself and Johnson, of all people, should really know better.

The World Cup winning captain of six years ago was given the job of coaching England because of his status as a no-nonsense leader, not as a disciple of modern day PR.

Despite this, and despite the fact that they’ve got no real form to fall back on, England are in with a chance of beating Australia this weekend.

I’ll come clean and admit that my prediction for the Four Nations rugby league encounter between the two nations last week was based purely on the patriotic allegiances, but this is based on a touch more realism.

For starters, Australia have won once in their last seven outings. Yes, it was against the All Blacks and South Africa, but that is still poor for a side who are used to doing a bit better. England have been no great shakes in recent months, but they haven’t been that bad.

Having said that, they haven’t been that good either. A comprehensive defeat of France and a narrow loss to Ireland aside, England under Johnson have been pretty average.

What they will have to do is consider the autumn international series as a fresh start.

Injuries have forced Johnson’s hand to some extent and there is a large streak of inexperience running through the side. That inexperience, and the resulting enthusiasm, could make up for the inadequacies of recent performances.

And most importantly, Jonny Wilkinson is back.

I’m not one to place to much store in the effect of an individual, But England with Wilkinson will be far superior to an England without.

While not the player of 2003, Wilkinson is comfortably England’s best fly-half and for his goal-kicking is worth a place in the team alone. If he is fit and firing, England have every chance.

What they can’t afford is the type of performance they produced in the same fixture 12 months ago.

Australia can go into the game with a more relaxed attitude because the majority of the pressure will be on the hosts and Johnson and if they get ahead early, tension will seep through the England ranks.

It won’t be a free-flowing, open encounter – England can’t play that way – and it will come down to the kicking.

For that reason alone England will win by less than 10 points.

TV TIMES FOR WALLABIES v ENGLAND, 7th November 2009

FOX SPORTS COVERAGE, WALLABIES v ENGLAND

England v Qantas Wallabies at Twickenham
Kickoff Time: 1.30am AEDT (Sunday)

Live Broadcast TIMES:
Fox Sports 1 – 1.20am-3.30am AEDT (Sunday)
Fox Sports HD – 1.20am-3.30am AEDT (Sunday)

Sunday Replays will also be shown at various times on Fox Sports HD, Fox Sports 1 and Fox Sports 2

CHANNEL TEN AND ONE HD COVERAGE, WALLABIES v ENGLAND

Broadcast Times on Ten and One HD for Wallabies v England:
Sydney – 1am-3.30am (Sunday) (Live)
Melbourne – 1am-3.30am (Sunday) (Live)
Brisbane – 12.10am-2.30am (Sunday) (Live)
Perth – 1am-3.30am (Sunday) (Delay)
Adelaide – 1am-3.30am (Sunday) (Delay)

Sunday Replays will also be shown at various times in each capital city on One HD

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The Crowd Says (151) | Page 1 of Comments

Mr cheese said | November 6th 2009 @ 3:42am | Report comment

England will win by FEWER than 10 points.

Anyway, Swannie, your prediction before the 13 man egg-chasing was completely rubbish. If the Aussies had really wanted to turn the screw, they could have put 60 points on England last weekend.

By the way, England will win by at least 15 points: Ugo Monye will score two tries.

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- fred said | November 6th 2009 @ 9:48am | Report comment
  
  fromage and too much wine mon ami;aust backs will kill the poms
  
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- John Ryan said | November 6th 2009 @ 9:49am | Report comment
  
  Is that before or after they succeed in boring everyone to death,I hope the Ref has a good agent because he will be about the most entertaining person on the park.
  
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Matt0931 said | November 6th 2009 @ 3:45am | Report comment

That’s quite the prediction!

Although I think you got it the wrong way around. Wallabies by 15

Now that’s blind patriotism isn’t it!

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Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 3:55am | Report comment

Mr Swann, how many England games have you watched over the past year? How many tries did England score during the 6N? How many tries have they scored to date under Johnson? How would you describe the tactics that Brian Smith employs? Surely England lost to Australia last year because they ran the ball too much? If England don’t want to run then why has Johnson selected three wingers in the back three? Why will the team be better with Wilkinson? Why will the pressure be on England when they have so many injuries, such inexperience and have come off their best 6N since 2003?
–
Robbie Deans ignored performance at the expense of winning and look at the season Australia has just had. Warren Gatland did the same last season and Wales bombed. Sir Clive Woodward and Jake White had long-term plans and look what they achieved. Obviously winning is non-negotiable but then professional rugby isn’t as black and white as that. To suggest otherwise is a lazy analysis at best. Winning doesn’t always develop good perfomances, but good performances tend to develop winning performances.

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- fred said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:44am | Report comment
  
  KNIVES,deans has gone for individual skills in backs to take advantage of england defence in midfield,;all these changes and incumbents have this ability (esp off left foot)deans wouldnt have done this agst nz.
  however if eng tackle from 9 to 15 they will have a chance otherwise look for an embarassing scoreline
  
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  - Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 8:09am | Report comment
    
    Cooper and Ioane are positive changes, Fred. Will anyone care about Deans’ reticence for change if the move comes off? There are still issues but it is a start. Australia need to start throwing the ball about. As an English fan I want an English win, but if they don’t and show improvements like they did in the 6N then I won’t be too dissapointed. I genuinely believe that Australia need the win more than England do at this stage in their development. England has the injury excuse and the fact they’re ranked 7th. That said, I still expect a win.
    
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    - fred said | November 6th 2009 @ 9:58am | Report comment
      
      KO;deans cant afford a loss to depleted england so giving himself an excuse for failure by selecting the populist approach with the tag of “courageous”.he has tried these “gifted”tactics agst bok with no result but eng combo defence will be found wanting this time and deans will be the genius weve all come to love.
      
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      - Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 9:56pm | Report comment
        
        Very astute, Fred. But maybe a good win and some dynamism from the backs will signal a new stage in the Australian transition?
        
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- Parisien said | November 7th 2009 @ 6:01am | Report comment
  
  so many questions, so little time.
  
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Matt0931 said | November 6th 2009 @ 4:03am | Report comment

‘Winning doesn’t always develop good perfomances, but good performances tend to develop winning performances.’

I like that line! I’m going to use that for now on everytime the wallabies lose.

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- Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 4:05am | Report comment
  
  But first you’ve got to have the performances. Ouch. Take that Australia!
  
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  - Matt0931 said | November 6th 2009 @ 4:21am | Report comment
    
    O’h no KO. What have you done? You’re going to have 100 abusive Aussie threads after that comment.
    
    Although, Brisbane (and maybe Sydney) test aside, I tend to agree.
    
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    - Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 4:25am | Report comment
      
      You can’t fight the facts, and if there’s one bloke that can take a touch of humour it’s your stereotypical laid back Aussie.
      
      Reply
      - Parisien said | November 7th 2009 @ 6:05am | Report comment
        
        But first you’ve got to have the performances. Ouch. Take that England! Fortunately if there’s one bloke that can take a touch of humour it’s your stereotypical uptight Englishman.
        
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Robbo said | November 6th 2009 @ 5:45am | Report comment

Remember what happened the last time Australia played a side that wasn’t ranked in the top 2 in the world? As I recall we destroyed the French. The same will happen this weekend.

Australia by 10+ over England

It’s just a warm up for the real “match” in Dublin the following week. Just like Scotland is a warm up for the real match in Cardiff.

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- Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:06am | Report comment
  
  Yes, you … ‘destroyed’ a 2nd string French side who had played nearly a 48 week season and who had just finished a 2 match series with NZ, having actually won in NZ – something that Australia can’t do. Bully for you, Robbo. What a hoot.
  
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  - CraigB said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:13am | Report comment
    
    we prefer to beat NZ during world cups. Its more fun.
    
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    - Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:23am | Report comment
      
      Whatever helps you sleep at night, boss.
      
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  - Robbo said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:29am | Report comment
    
    KO – yet another of your irrational defenses of Northern Hemisphere rugby. It seems every time a NH team loses it is because they are “second string”.
    
    I suppose the French and English sides Australia beat (smashed) last November were also second string?
    
    It’s not the Wallabies fault that the French selectors consistently chose bad sides.
    
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    - Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:32am | Report comment
      
      Or more accurately yet another irrational defence of Australian rugby. The Australian victory over France was utterly meaningless and yet you use it to somehow create a bulwark against a truly embarassing season.
      
      If you think that Australia smashed England and France last season then you have no credibility. I suggest you research your history.
      
      The French selectors aka the DoR chose a defensive team to maintain damage limitation. Check out the NZ sides and then check out the xv that played Australia. No comparison whatsoever.
      
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      - Mr cheese said | November 6th 2009 @ 8:08am | Report comment
        
        Knives, Dear Boy.
        
        Doesn’t that excuse the French ? The Aussies can only play what’s there, and they gave the French a bit of a kicking as I recall.
        
        During the last 6 Nations, the French were absolute garbage at Twickenham. It doesn’t seem to make sense to say that Australia only beat France because of a long French season. The French play well one week and then really badly the next. It’s in their DNA.
        
        You can’t attack the Australians for that.
        
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        Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 9:58pm | Report comment
        
        I’m not attacking the Australians for that, Mr cheese. I’m simply pointing out that the victory was nothing to crow about, as none of these end of season thrashings ever are. The difference between the the Australian victory and the English victory is a) a few months and b) a difference in selection (i.e. the best team and just A team).
        
        reds fan said | November 6th 2009 @ 10:08pm | Report comment
        
        So KO will you apply the same “end of season” logic to the AB’s, Wallabies and Boks?
      - CraigB said | November 6th 2009 @ 8:14am | Report comment
        
        Whatever helps you sleep at night, boss.
        
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        Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 8:24am | Report comment
        
        I’m an idiot, Craig. I’ve just had a real think on things and I’ve come to this conclusion: Australia did in fact smash England and France last year, and they also smashed France once more this season. That is why they won the 3N, are ranked 1st in the IRB rankings, scored 8 tries per game and whitewashed the Kiwis 4-0 in the Bledisloe. Go Green and Gold! You complete me!
      - Parisien said | November 7th 2009 @ 6:07am | Report comment
        
        Oh dear, here we go again. Does he ever stop?
        
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    - Hermin said | November 8th 2009 @ 5:43am | Report comment
      
      Glad to see others pointing out what I have said all along. However it’s no coincidence that you are all subjected to the same rhetoric and sarcasm that is KO.Watch out lads you’ll be accussed of being Hemjay next.
      
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jus de couchon said | November 6th 2009 @ 6:38am | Report comment

Twickers will expose the Convicts for their lack of depth if they loose any players. Sir Johnny will supply le coup de grace .

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- Knives Out said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:33am | Report comment
  
  24 players?
  
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Sambobly said | November 6th 2009 @ 6:50am | Report comment

Australia by 60+. Now take THAT for a prediction!

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Vented Relief said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:36am | Report comment

Keep dreaming Swanny. Australia by 12.

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Gladfoppery said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:45am | Report comment

Alec – England by less than 10 points? So your most optimistic forecast is England by nine, and your most pessimistic is England by one. And you say England in a canter. Again pessimistic because England’s back three can all gallop.

Nobody’s talked about the ref yet. It’s a SH ref, Bryce Lawrence. So does that automatically give the Ws an advantage as to interpretation of the laws? When they beat England at Twickers last year the ref wasn’t happy with the way England were playing and Giteau kicked a bunch of penalties – each team scored just one try if memory serves. But what happens if BL doesn’t like the way the Ws are playing? Then Wilko steps up and kicks a bunch of penalties.

If I were a betting man, I’d look at each team’s record, then put my money on Lawrence.

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- Colin N said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:50am | Report comment
  
  “And you say England in a canter”
  
  The title is apparently decided by someone else, not the writer of the article.
  
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Bay35Pablo said | November 6th 2009 @ 7:57am | Report comment

With the new faces in the English back line I suspect the Wallabies will be wary. They can’t do the usual analysis of the players, and pick which blade of grass they’ll step on when playing. They might actually have to play what’s in front of them!!!!

Wallabies to win, but Johnny’s boot will keep them in the game.

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- Brett McKay said | November 6th 2009 @ 8:19am | Report comment
  
  Pablo, by the same token, I don’t know how much intel England would have on a centre pairing of Cooper and Ioane. Unpredicatablity abounds on both sides – hopefully a cracking game ensures…
  
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