By Bondi Plage
November 7th 2009 @ 3:17am
Loading ...Can a Kiwi coach help Wales beat All Blacks?
A rugby scribe at one of the major Welsh newspapers thinks Gatland will come out ahead on Saturday. This is what the journo said. (For the sake of brevity, this is an edited version.)
“I’d say New Zealand have fallen from the previous height of jaw-droppingly awesome and have ended up as plain old formidable. There may not be such a thing as a poor New Zealand side but no-one would argue that this is one of their finest.
“However, the question remains: are Wales good enough to record a memorable victory?
“Injuries to key players have eroded some of that belief. Gatland has always placed a large emphasis on a solid scrum from which to launch his ball-carriers and Paul James’ ability to provide that platform will be tested.
“I think he’ll fare well enough despite the attention he’ll attract from Graham Henry’s side.
“But if things do go a bit “Vickery”, then Wales must learn the lessons of the Lions this summer and make changes quickly. It’s clear Gatland still likes Andy Powell. Powell has speed, quick feet and an ability to offload which distinguishes him from most back-row men and makes him capable of breaching defences.
“However, he’s no stranger to the occasional howler and is rarely a presence at the tackle area. It’s normally the No 8 who is afforded these freedoms and so it will require a share of responsibilities between Powell and Ryan Jones to ensure Martyn Williams is not left isolated.
“Wales’ style hasn’t changed for two years and it needs to be refreshed somewhat. I’m sure Jamie Roberts will be used creatively and Shane Williams will be given licence to roam the pitch. I’m very comfortable with James Hook at full-back. He’s a fine runner with a powerful boot.
“Wales want to keep the ball in hand and have a high tempo game with lots of recycling so they can create the important mismatches.
“With a little luck from the referee and the bounce of the ball, I think Wales can win. ”
So is he right or is he wrong?
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(15)
Bay35Pablo said | November 7th 2009 @ 8:53am | Report comment
Hmmm, all Welsh rugby reporters have been questionable in my eyes ever since one argued with me in 2003 during the RWC that Manny Edmonds was a great player.
I think Wales will need a lot more than the bounce of the ball and a little luck. Even with the ABs being not so good, Wales are going to play out of their skin AND hope for those 2 factors.
Dean Pantio said | November 7th 2009 @ 11:10am | Report comment
No. My prediction is the Welsh will lose. They’ll compete well, for about 60 mins and then fade away.
pothale said | November 7th 2009 @ 11:48am | Report comment
Are you saying the Welsh don’t last the pace, or won’t last the New Zealand pace?
hammer said | November 7th 2009 @ 3:31pm | Report comment
Well the bookies don’t have much faith at Centrebet you can get $5.30 for the welsh with the AB’s paying just $1.16
I’m with Dean on this a similar test to last year the Welsh fading in the final 20 – it might not be the strongest line up but there is still a fair bit of class in that NZ team
Pippinu said | November 7th 2009 @ 3:56pm | Report comment
Actually – that’s pretty good odds for the AB win!!!
$10,000 down, and pocket $1,160 – that ain’t bad for an evening’s entertainment.
Robbo said | November 7th 2009 @ 4:10pm | Report comment
Having a Kiwi coach hasn’t exactly helped Australia beat the AB’s.
katzilla said | November 7th 2009 @ 4:26pm | Report comment
I think Wales have had a NZ coach for the last 10 odd years? Hasn’t helped nought before.
I read that article at Walesonline. Funny thing was his title was ‘Wales will win’ then slowly he tries to describe why Wales will win then convinces himself that Wales aren’t as good as he initially thought to end with ‘Wales can win’ at the end of his article.
He probably didn’t pick the title but it makes for funny reading and probably illustrates the underlying Welsh rugby psyche underneath all that bravado. They really don’t think they can win. The only reason they mention the AB aura is because they are one of the only countries to still be mystified by it. Australia don’t mention it, because for them it doesn’t exist, SA don’t either, neither France nor England or Ireland for that matter.
Gatlands lived there long enough to know what drives the Welsh, and it is all his attempt to break down something he says isn’t actually there. But if it isn’t then why the need to mention it?
Wales can win, but they need to face up to the legacy of 50 years of failure and the NZ aura and try to understand it rather then denying its there. Much the same boat as NZs ongoing WC failure.
Dean Pantio said | November 7th 2009 @ 10:16pm | Report comment
The All Black aura definitely exists for the Irish. I honestly don’t think they believe they can win. Which is a pity, because a team that wins a Grand Slam and 6N should be able to beat the All Blacks occasionally.
I’d wager there’s a growing aura about the All Blacks within the Wallaby camp too.
pothale said | November 8th 2009 @ 12:54am | Report comment
It used to exist for Ireland. Not any more – going on the last 2-3 years. NZ had a couple of lucky breaks in previous home matches against Ireland. They’re there to be taken. Just don’t play them often enough to make the break.
Dean Pantio said | November 8th 2009 @ 2:45am | Report comment
Lucky breaks? The last truly close game between Ireland and New Zealand was in 1992.
pothale said | November 8th 2009 @ 5:27am | Report comment
Well maybe our definitions of ‘close’ may differ:
2002 NZ 15 – 6 Ireland
2006 NZ 34 -23 Ireland
2006 NZ 27-17 Ireland
2008 NZ 21 -11 Ireland
Still – it’s the loss that matters. Just have to wait until next year. Again.
katzilla said | November 8th 2009 @ 7:06am | Report comment
I think its more in the attitude Dean. Against Wales they always seem to fade once we put a few points over them. They came back strong this morning to their credit, but once we got 3 points ahead I think we knew the end result.
I don’t think Ireland remain phased by the ABs so called aura, they’ve just never had the players to beat us. They throw their all into it for 80 minutes unlike the welsh who can fade for big chunks of a game.
I disagree with pot that we got lucky, it was more that Ireland just haven’t been good enough.
For many years between now and 53 Wales have had the players to put one over on us, I dont think Ireland ever have. In saying that I think the Irish will get us before the Welsh get their next one.
Dean Pantio said | November 8th 2009 @ 6:40pm | Report comment
Only one of your selection is less than 10 points and then only by one. It’s like being two goals up in soccer – I’ll let you work out why.
ShaghaiDoc said | November 7th 2009 @ 8:26pm | Report comment
This season has been very interesting. First we had a schedule that almost ensured the AB’s demise. Several injuries and home town NH referees made it fact.
Last season I saw the worst AB team ever win the 3N and every game in Europe. This team began the season weaker. While the supporters were burrowing back into the closet, a miracle has occurred, and I must say that Lord Ted’s Troika has been masterly. This AB side is now the best in the world and not very far away from the 2005 side. I am predicting a big one. The passing and handling is back and with it rising confidence. GotnoLand and his VI’s will be road kill.
ShaghaiDoc said | November 8th 2009 @ 6:29pm | Report comment
Have a look at the photo in The Times, where Dan carter is having his head attacked by a Welshman. No grizzling from the Kiwis, or about the TMO, who must have been drunk or high. The score certainly flattered the GotNoLanders.