By pothale -
November 11th 2009 @ 2:24am
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Rusty Ireland, easybeat Wallabies: who’ll win?
A tale of two opposites unfolds this coming Sunday in Croke Park, Dublin. Ireland: the actual Grand Slam 6 Nations champions meet the wannabe mini-Grand Slam aspirants, Australia, the Southern Hemisphere easybeats.
Or if you prefer, it’s 4th plays 3rd. It’s North vs South. The Plodders vs the Aristocrats. New order vs Old order. It’s time to fit up the Aussies.
Sunday’s test match is a game of contrasts, with both sides looking to improve their status – Ireland must kick on from their European triumph and achieve a top 3 ranking that they’ve had only twice since the IRB rankings started. (Coincidentally, Ireland was ranked third in the world when the first rankings began in September 2003, with Australia in 4th spot. A few weeks later, the positions of supremacy had changed.)
Ireland will be looking to restore that supremacy with a win in front of their home support.
Playing in Croke Park is not for the fainthearted – a point made by Rocky Elsom as he arrived in Dublin for the second leg of their tour. He said lip-reading is required in order to hear yourself above the 80,000 plus din.
And this time, despite his undoubted popularity with the home crowd, Elsom knows the Irish fans will be baying for his blood and those of his teammates.
Australia have long been associated with playing running rugby as part of their team ethic and culture – almost mythically so, in the view of some.
In contrast, Ireland were seen as the marauding team of mud-slingers, who are up for a fight for the first 60/70 minutes before fading and failing – heroically of course. Witness their World Cup games when they lost to the Aussies by a single point on two occasions.
No longer.
The fortunes of both teams have gone in opposite directions in the last 14 months. Elsom left Ireland as it hit the heights of securing their first Grand Slam in over 60 years, winning the Heineken Cup for the third time in four years, and topping the Magners League two years on the trot.
Australia has been in the doldrums all year, with Super 14 and 3N titles well beyond their grasp.
Has there been a better time for Ireland to play Australia then?
Well, the overall win record stands 70% in Australia’s favour with some healthy whippings handed out to the boys in green – home and away. Though, there have been some hiccoughs more recently.
In 2006, Australia arrived in Dublin having squeaked a 25-18 win in Rome – during which the Wallabies trailed by two points at half-time and played what one Aussie scribe called “abominable, aimless football”. Before that had been a 29-29 draw in Cardiff. “We just didn’t play,” grumbled John Connolly. “Our selection of what to do and when to do it was poor.”
It didn’t get any better. In a rain-drenched, but free-flowing match at Lansdowne Road, Ireland thumped them 21-6.
In June last year, at the Telstra Dome, Ireland failed to capitalise on the mesmerising IRB Try of the Year finished off by O’Driscoll, and through lack of accuracy, came up short: 18-12.
Despite Ireland having had the better of the match, Australia coach Robbie Deans would not openly admit Ireland deserved to win. “History does not record the detail. History records the score,” he said, ironically managing to provide a memorable quote that did the exact opposite.
Ireland’s line-up that day was: R Kearney; S Horgan, B O’Driscoll, P Wallace, T Bowe; R O’Gara, P Stringer; M Horan, R Best, J Hayes, D O’Callaghan, P O’Connell, D Leamy, S Jennings, J Heaslip, with Flannery, Reddan, Ferris and Dempsey among the replacements.
One year on and there’s a few new faces in the likely line-up to be announced this Wednesday.
Kearney, Bowe and Fitzgerald are in the regular back-three berths with Keith Earls hovering on the sidelines in case Kearney doesn’t recover from injury. Darcy and Paddy Wallace are fighting it out for inside centre, and Tomas O’Leary should have the No 9 shirt with Reddan as back-up.
In the backrow, Ulsterman Stephen Ferris has the blindside spot, and Denis Leamy may get No 8 having had better form than Heaslip so far this season.
There’s a new pair of caps for prop Cian Healy and hooker John Fogarty who are likely to start in the front row (assuming Jerry Flannery doesn’t recover.)
Unlike New Zealand, Australia hold no bogeys for this Irish team, and O’Driscoll & Co have got the scent of victory and winning big in their nostrils, with 8 wins out of their last 9 games. (The only loss was against NZ in last 12 months.)
Australia has one strong advantage: its squad is already up and running and played 3 matches with the English test victory notched on their belts.
Ireland hasn’t played together for over 6 months.
The provincial clubs have been stuttering in the Magners League, but at the international break, Leinster are on top, with Munster and Ulster sharing equal points directly behind them.
The two front-row newbies will pack down alongside the old warrior, John Hayes. Loosehead, Cian Healy, has had his best season start of his career, and is itching to earn his first cap. His Leinster team-mate, John Fogarty, will be equally enthusiastic to start hooking for Ireland.
Up against a far more experienced Aussie front row, scrum time will be tough for Ireland. Hopefully, the years of wisdom directly behind the front row will compensate in the shape of O’Connell and O’Callaghan.
Leamy, if he displays his current form for Munster, will give the Aussies a major headache, and Wallace’s ability to score from short out will keep the Aussie forwards honest. Genia is going to have a major rep coming into the match, and Ferris will be on his toes.
The story goes that the Irish squad avoids Ferris in training: if Ferris hits him in the tackle, Genia will know all about it.
Fogarty has been hitting his jumpers in the Leinster line-out better than Jackman and has been rewarded with a senior place. Hopefully, he’ll have got used to the Munster formations by the time Sunday rolls around.
The two Os will continue their Munster partnership as locks, with O’Connell expected to lift his game back to the dynamic heights of the last two years.
The lineout is supposed to be Australia’s weakness, so the expectation is that Ireland will punish them, on both their own and opposition’s throws. If they can secure quick ball, then the Irish backline can really get moving.
Elsom will have briefed his team-mates on the Leinster players though, and it’ll take more than Leinster-style wrap-arounds to penetrate the Australian defence.
If Kearney plays, his breaks into the line and general catching and counter-attacking skills should cause a few Aussie hearts to stop. Bowe slashing through the ranks alongside him might make them terminal.
Ireland aren’t too shabby in the defence stakes, either.
They had the lowest try against count in the 6 Nations, and the Leinster backline particularly, Darcy and O’Driscoll, are one of the best in Europe at nullifying attacks last season and continued this season.
Inevitably, there are weak points.
One rests with O’Driscoll and his tendency to rush up and create a dog-leg behind him. Cooper and Giteau will be watching to pounce.
Likewise, Fitzgerald’s covering back, tackling and catching high balls can be suspect. However, going forward this season, he has been sizzling.
And of course, the burning question is whom Kidney will pick at 10. The Irish rugby commentariat has O’Gara in position, with Sexton on the sidelines. If he is, I’ll be hiding behind the couch every time Genia fires out the ball to Giteau or Cooper in attack.
Or worse, Adam Ashley-Cooper runs at him. (Think 10 metres from the England tryline and two defenders in front of you…)
Deans wants to win this match – by any means necessary, I think. Kidney needs to experiment but wants to win.
Pragmatism may prevail in which case the encounter could be full of high kicks, numerous breakdowns, and the old Munster favourite dragged out for another outing – pick ‘n’ gos with one pod out. Let’s hope not interminably.
It’s said that these November Internationals are about establishing bragging rights between NH and SH. That’s the easy headline. For Ireland, these internationals should be about much more than that.
The old order of dominance by the big 5 rugby nations is changing as professionalism starts to seep into the next generation. Ten years on, the second generation of Irish players is emerging with no knowledge of the amateur era, and no historic inhibitions to hold them back.
Ireland is poised to change that order along with smaller rugby nations such as Wales and Argentina. The next WC is less than two years away, and teams who want to succeed need to make a statement now. Ireland’s target now should be to reach the World Cup final in 2011.
One of their pool opponents meets them next Sunday. It’s time to lay down a marker.
I suspect that Kidney has little time for the easy point scoring and one-upmanship associated with North vs South contests. He doesn’t do flashy or ostentation. But there’s a little fact that’s gone largely unnoticed this year up to now.
If the Ireland team continues to win as it’s done so far this year, and beats Australia, Fiji and South Africa in November, apparently it’ll be the first team in the professional era to go unbeaten in a single calendar year.
Nothing stupendous or record-breaking – just a little marker of satisfaction Declan Kidney will have his eye on as he prepares his team for the coming tests, next year’s 6 Nations and NZ ’11.
If Ireland can play to the best of their ability, and their players stay injury-free, they should be too good for this relatively fledgling Australian team.
Nevertheless, if they turn up rusty, and don’t have coherence at the scrum and fast-striking ability, Australia should be too good to let the opportunity pass to drive home the stake.
It should be a tight game, but an exciting one. I hope and pray it doesn’t rain for two teams who like to run with the ball.
With their football counterparts up against the odds in Croke Park on Saturday playing France for a WC spot, the spotlight will be off the Ireland rugby team somewhat.
That’s where they’ll want to be. Revving quietly on the sidelines, waiting for the off.
A final thought.
One player is certain to receive a standing ovation on Sunday. Brian O’Driscoll will earn his 100th test cap, 94 for his country and 6 for the Lions: a notable achievement that confirms him as one of the most popular and successful Irish sportspeople of his generation.
The crowd may also rise for his opposing captain – well, half of them.
For Elsom, his last match at Croker was the famous victory with Leinster over Munster in the Heineken semi-final. After the Heineken Cup final earlier this year, Brian O’Driscoll famously remarked that the Australian captain was ‘remarkable’, and ‘the best player he had ever played with’.
A fine compliment to a worthy warrior that invited comparisons with a host of team-mates from Leinster, Ireland, Barbarians and the Lions over the last decade. It has stood Elsom in good stead and made him a favourite with the Irish fans.
Next Sunday, we’ll see whether Captain Elsom is the best player Captain O’Driscoll has ever played against.
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(101)
Bruce Ross said | November 11th 2009 @ 3:05am | Report comment
A very comprehensive article, pothale, which was worth being up at 3.30 am to read.
Knives Out said | November 11th 2009 @ 3:27am | Report comment
An excellent read. Thank you.
Who Needs Melon said | November 11th 2009 @ 5:36am | Report comment
I agree with ‘The Crowd’ above: Thanks for the read.
I too think this will be an interesting game. Wallabies will be desperate to try to get a string of wins together. And I don’t they will overly inflate their opinions of themselves as they did after their victory against SA in the Tri-nations.
Ireland rusty? I guess you can’t argue with that. Nor that they have some weaknesses – as you’d know better than most on this site… but surely the Wallabies do too.
So – I’m sorry – but I’m still claiming clear underdog status for the Wallabies pothale.
jus de couchon said | November 11th 2009 @ 6:20am | Report comment
From an Anglo/gaul/cornwellian/treehugger ,
Its unlikely the Rusty Oirish will prevail against a clearly underperforming bunch of ex Convicts though Croke Park may yet again prove to be a great theatre.
Jecker said | November 11th 2009 @ 6:35am | Report comment
If it weren’t for you, Pothale, we’d get no informed info at all on this forum re. the NH teams.
It’d be nice if somebody of your quality would step up and give us some inside dope on France, Scotland and Wales. If nobody does, you’re elected.
Expert comment on the ins and outs of the Pumas and Fiji is probably too much to hope for, although there are quite a few Roaring Saffers who could tell us something about the Boks as they prepare for their games.
BOD should get some Hall of Fame spot for contribution to rugby – the biggest name in centres since Horan hung ‘em up.
I hear a lot of people will be watching POC on Sunday to see how he performs in front of a home crowd against a SH team after the Lions’ oh-so-close loss in SA. He’s a mighty man when he’s had his Wheaties, and the Irish second row should get the nod over the Wallaby locks.
Have a good game.
Bay35Pablo said | November 11th 2009 @ 7:59am | Report comment
Good article pots. Some work went into that.
And give up on trying for the underdog status. By all accounts your boys should win. If we beat you it’ll be an upset in my book, even if only a small one given the history between the teams.
But if we can beat Ireland, I think that’s the toughest game of the tour, just ahead of Wales.
mick h said | November 11th 2009 @ 7:59am | Report comment
I love Aussie v Ireland games. Since the 91 WC quarter final most games have been very inthrawling contests.
Who can forget Gordon Hamiltons fabulous run away try in the final minutes of said WC quarter final.
It seemed from the couch in Aus that we were gone and that Hamilton was to become Landsdowne Roads patron Saint.
Lynagh, Horan and Campese scuttled and sainthood aspirations unfortunately for the Hamilton.
Again in 2003 WC, another thrilling match that I was at in Melbourne.
This year though I feel that Ireland will take out this next chapter in Aus/Eire battles.
I have 2 wishes to acheive in my liftime. First is to watch a Wales v England game at Millenium. Second is Ireland v England at Landsdowne Road. These will be my Rugby pilgrimage. If only I did it when the old grounds were still standing.
Above all Home Nations I think Australians have a very warm heart for Ireland and it’s people. Here’s to a fitting game.
mick h said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:01am | Report comment
Bernie said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:31am | Report comment
I have a feeling that the atmosphere generated by the fanatical crowd support in Ireland’s temporary rugby fortress, Croke Park, may just get the men in green home on the weekend. It may well be the deciding factor of who wins this game.
Oh to have some of europe’s magnificent rugby arenas in our own backyard. Yes, I am dreaming.
Have a look at the newly developed Lansdowne Road Stadium – http://www.irish-architecture.com/news/2005/000204b.jpg
Vented Relief said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:23am | Report comment
Try lang park for a start….. easily up there with the best!
Bay35Pablo said | November 11th 2009 @ 11:00am | Report comment
Looks like how Homebush should have been built!!!
Harry said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:35am | Report comment
Pothale great read, many thanks.
From an Australian perspective, I am most worried about our lineout and restart weaknesses, softness at 4 and 5, and flakiness on the wings. But should be a great contest with the home side starting favourites. I am one of those who believes that Palu is a world class backrower, though inconsistent. IF him Smith(or Pocock, I am now relaxed about who starts at 7) and Elsom all fire we have a show, we should have the edge in the scrum with our front row as well.
Mick h, follow that dream. I saw Ireland beat England at landsdowne (93 from memory) and it was one of the greatest rugby spectating experiences of my life.
PastHisBest said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:58am | Report comment
“Palu is a world class backrower, though inconsistent”
And I believe that this is an oxymoron Harry. To be world class you MUST be consistent.
fox said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:35am | Report comment
Comprehensive and astute, pothale. Well done.
The game lies ahead of us and it would be a brave man that makes a prediction either way. I will be brave (or stupid, perhaps deluded even) and make such a prediction. Despite Ireland being favourites with just about everyone including the bookies, I think Australia will win a close, mid-to-low-scoring affair (call it 15-12).
I get a feeling that Australia have hit a patch of form (again?!) with a new backline combination that has just started growing into itself. Aside from O’Driscoll and Kearney the Irish fullback, I see mismatches in Australia’s favour. But let’s not kid ourselves, this game will be won in the forwards – and I think we have the ascendancy in general play, dominance in the scrum and a weakness in the lineouts.
Winning the breakdown is of course the key – let’s hope the referee is clear and consistent in his adjudications there, as well as bi-partisan. Ireland will try and slow Australia’s ball down and, I believe, Australia will be keen not to give penalties away, which may prove to Ireland’s advantage in recycling possession. If I’m Robbie Deans I’m thinking the biggest risk is giving away easy 3-pointers. The Wallaby defense should hold up well.
Digby Ioane v Brian O’Driscoll will be very interesting. Both of these players run excellent lines and can break tackles. O’Driscoll is clearly the more experienced 13 – one of the greastest centres in rugby’s history – and this will be evident in him being the better defender. Ioane will be looking forward to seeing where he stands now that he has thrived against England and a fairly average opposite number.
Giteau v O’Gara(?) – two very different 10’s. I expect O’Gara will be kicking out of hand 8 times out of 10 and Ireland will want to support him in defense. If Giteau picks the right moments to run AAC, Elsom or Palu at him (or even himself) it may get ugly for Ireland. Their cover defense will need to be good.
Ferris v Elsom – also a very interesting head-to-head, even if they don’t see much of each other. It will be interesting to see who has the bigger impact: the home town boy, or the Leinster crowd’s favourite foreign born player?
If Ireland starve the Wallabies of enough possession, as I expect they will, this is going to very tight. If Australian manage to recycle ball quickly I don’t think Ireland can stop them. This being Ireland’s first outing for six months they are likely to be conservative and I just don’t see this being a winning strategy, unless of course they manage to execute as well as the south africans, which while not beyond them is clearly a big ask first up.
I of course have as much faith in my predictions as I do in the Wallabies stringing too wins together – that is to say, not much. It should make for an excellent game either way though!
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:35am | Report comment
Fox, you said: “I get a feeling that Australia have hit a patch of form (again?!) with a new backline combination that has just started growing into itself. Aside from O’Driscoll and Kearney the Irish fullback, I see mismatches in Australia’s favour. But let’s not kid ourselves, this game will be won in the forwards – and I think we have the ascendancy in general play, dominance in the scrum and a weakness in the lineouts.”
What or who are the mismatches do you figure? Wings? Cooper and Ioane?
If Ireland get ascendancy in the lineouts, then O’Gara will take advantage – no better guy to ping them deep into touch and put the pressure on the Aussie lineout.
Still, I’m hoping that Sexton gets to start because it’ll give a different dynamic to the backline. And I think playing Australia is a good opponent for him to fill his boots.
fox said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:59pm | Report comment
It’s obvious that Ioane v O’Driscoll is not a mismatch in the Wallabies’ favour and I think the two fullbacks are fairly equally matched (although that doesn;t really matter, as they will rarely match up). Not sure how the wing match-ups will work but the Fitzgerald I have admittedly seen limited amounts of is possibly a weakness in defense and if he’s marking Hynes I fancy that as a match that favours the Wallabies (although many among these forums think Hynes is a weakness. I disagree) and against Mitchell I will probably concede that one. I also rate our halves as more of a threat with ball in hand than an O’Gara/Darcy pairing (if they indeed are picked – if they are not I am stabbing in the dark and will be interested to see who is rolled out). I think Darcy’s fairly average myself. You are correct though, if Ireland can secure enough ball and translate that possession into lineouts then O’Gara (should he play) will appear to have the edge over Giteau. If the opposite occurs and Gits gets good quality ball and a lot of it, O’Gara can offer little that might see him even come close.
At the end of the day pothale I’m being positive about the Wallabies prospects because well, I see little point in being otherwise. I see our backline as a special one in the making. I’ll take the disappopintment on the chin should we lose, but I am expecting a monumental effort and some demon slaying after the drubbing we received upon out last visit.
PastHisBest said | November 11th 2009 @ 11:01am | Report comment
“Ireland will try and slow Australia’s ball down”
Fox, I’m always amused when this is written as though only one side is attempting to achieve this. Clearly each team will be attempting to slow down the opposition’s ball, while trying to speed up their own.
fox said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:42pm | Report comment
Happy to amuse as always. It depends where this sits in the pecking order of defensive strategies emplyed. I think some teams are more prone to use this as a primary tactic than others. It appears to me that some teams prefer not to commit as many bodies to the breakdown as a defensive strategy and instead aim to isolate the opposition in rucks to attempt quick turnovers from which to counter.
Terry Kidd said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:56am | Report comment
Thank you Pothale …. the best read for a long time.
As I understand it Mr Kaplan is the ref. If so, he will bot brook any scrum infringments which could be Ireland’s undoing if the Wallaby pack has a dominance at scrum time. The line outs will be interesting and will probably go Ireland’s way but if O’Gara kicks too often then they will just see the ball run back at them. I expect the Wallabies to run more often than kick, especially if the line out is stuttering, and this could be their best strategy.
I’ll predict 2 tries to 1 to the Wallabies, with a 4 point win … the difference coming from scrum penalties.
Bay35Pablo said | November 11th 2009 @ 11:05am | Report comment
Optimistic on Kaplan. 2 rules of his. If the attacking scrum is Australia and the scrum collapses, it’s their fault. If the defending scrum is Australia and the scrum collapses, it’s their fault.
I’ll just settle for consistency ….
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:01am | Report comment
“Australia has one strong advantage: its squad is already up and running and played 3 matches with the English test victory notched on their belts. Ireland hasn’t played together for over 6 months”.
Nail on the head, old scout. This factor is too often overlooked and is, in my opinion, the single biggest reason why the south has exerted such dominance over the north outside world cups. I note that James Haskell suggested today that the North switch to a summer calendar. I think he might be onto something if it helps to create a level playing field at long last.
Amateur Hour said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:55am | Report comment
Butit of course doesn’t explain why the SH nations regularly white wash visiting NH teams at the start of our season.
I’m really looking forward to this match and anticipate a real show down. As an Aussie, though, I cringe when I hear the name Kaplan and I really hope that he doesn’t have another man of the match performance.
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:51am | Report comment
Well, it kind of does. The northern boys go down to the south in June generally having not played together for about three months. I would love to see the 6N teams play the 3N teams immediately after their respective competitions end.
MattyP said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:34pm | Report comment
Great post Potty, best I’ve read in ages, comprehensive and accurate. My two bob on the “season” issue – we’ve all heard all the variants on the “fresh vs tired, settled combinations vs thrown together” arguments many times over many seasons now – my conclusion is that the better team will generally win on the day, with a slight adjustment to account for home field advantage and that those arguments are more ready-made excuses for the losing side than factors in the game… In this case, the Irish pack looks way to tough for the Aussie front 5, the lineout beating will be even worse for Australia than in England game, frustrating possession-starved wobbly forwards who will give away too many penalties, which ROG will duly convert into an undeniable lead for the men in green. Hoping I’m proved wrong, but I’m writing that with my pocket book not my heart.
Rugby Fan said | November 13th 2009 @ 6:26pm | Report comment
Dick Best seems to have little doubt that SH players are better prepared and have better skills. You can hear him speaking with Matt Dawson on last night’s BBC 5 Live:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00nshjr/5_live_Sport_5_live_Rugby_12_11_2009/
Justin said | November 11th 2009 @ 4:52pm | Report comment
Makes great sense to move the NH season to summer and bring us closer t a global season which would really benefit the game world wide. I mentioned this on another thread a few days back too
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:11am | Report comment
P.S. Don’t you think the Croke Park factor is rather over-hyped, Pothale? All the rugby and soccer games I’ve seen from there seem to have been pretty dead. The fans are too far away from the action and the pitch’s dimensions are completely ill-suited to “foreign” games. It’s not a patch on the old Lansdowne.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:01am | Report comment
It’s a big stadium VC, no doubt about it. I’ve experienced Croker from a number of different viewpoints and positions in the ground. I’ve been up in the gods for the New Zealand match last year and as a fan I may as well have been watching it on a 12 inch TV and the atmosphere was quite dead. But then Irl v NZ matches are quite soulless affairs anyway – there’s no huge rivalry or animosity in the encounters. You need an edge to get an atmosphere.
Lower-down pitch side though, the sound rolls down from on high and lands on the pitch and it is deafening at times, and quite exhilarating if the crowd is rooting for you. Elsom’s comment about having to lip read is something he told his teammates because he experienced it in the very tribal atmosphere of the interprovincial game.
The Ireland v France game had equally good atmosphere and the French fans I spoke with afterwards really enjoyed it.
I’m sure you remember the famous match against England for the first match in Croke Park in 2007 – that was simply electric and the singing of the two anthems at the beginning made my hairs stand up, before the match kicked off. (The result of 43-13 helped as well admittedly.)
Ireland respond well to Australia and I think the atmosphere should be good. I’m lucky enough to be going to both matches at the weekend, so we’ll see how it goes. Whether Ireland will have a 16th man due to the crowd, we’ll wait and see.
You’re right – Old Lansdowne was a cracking stadium, and the noise and proximity was fantastic. Let’s hope the new stadium gets close to that.
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:44am | Report comment
Interesting thoughts. Croker seems to be one of those stadia that come alive at night. Lansdowne Road was terrific – so much character with the wind and the terraces and the old DART train running behind the West Stand.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 11:05am | Report comment
Running under the West Stand, you mean! So that the whole stand rumbled when a heavy passenger mainline train went underneath on schoolboy matchdays.
It’ll run behind the stand now but with an all new posh station and walkways, and gleaming street furniture, etc.
PastHisBest said | November 11th 2009 @ 12:54pm | Report comment
“But then Irl v NZ matches are quite soulless affairs anyway”
Really Pots?? Perhaps deep, deep down the Ireland team and their fans know they cannot win…
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:09pm | Report comment
You’re possibly right, past. And, in fairness, you don’t have to go too deep.
However, the game last year was quite a tight affair for the first half. There was the usual braying Night of the Valkyrie type music at the outset, and the crowd sang the anthem, and gave the first roar as the game kicked off. And then….muted outbursts. I was with some friends – a couple from England – and they all remarked on it – why’s the place gone so quiet?
It was a poor match, and a good few fans were leaving ten minutes into the second half – I’d never seen that before. Odd.
Maybe the response will change when Ireland get around to beating them.
PastHisBest said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:13pm | Report comment
Perhaps. In a two-horse race, if observers feel there is a chance of either horse winning, it heightens then tension and expectations.
Dan said | November 11th 2009 @ 7:37pm | Report comment
Why would there be no atmosphere at Ireland V NZ Pothale? Ireland have never beaten NZ, so shouldn’t they get absolutely pumped for each game, as each game is potentially the first ever win against ‘rugby’s gold standard’?
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:20pm | Report comment
Dunno. See above with PastHisBest.
fox said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:13am | Report comment
VC, the NH teams still have home ground advantage and have not had to travel. What’s the weight of benefit in that versus the alleged experience we’ve gained by being hammered by the AB’s and SA for 7 odd matches? Does that make us battle hardened or just sore? I am not sure there’s any real disadvantage or advantage in either scenario. Again we are short some of our front line players through injury and have had to string together new backline combinations that did not play together through the 3N. This is a fairly regular outcome on these November tours of ours. For example, this is the second year in a row we’ve been without Berrick Barnes for large parts of the tour due to injury – and he was perhaps our most influential backline player this season. In addition we are short second rowers (both through injury and admittedly lack of depth).
Looking at it that way, I am not convinced its as much as an advantage as you believe it is.
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:32am | Report comment
Well, there are various bits and bobs of evidence to support my case:
- The north is much, much more competitive in World Cups (when the games are played more or less on a level playing field since everyone enjoys a similar amount of preparation time going into them)
- The north seems to be more competitive in the June fixtures when, though knackered, they are at least playing opponents who are as rusty (if not more rusty) than they are themselves – see France winning in both SA and NZ over the past three years, the Lions winning well in Jo’burg, the Irish almost winning in Melbourne, etc. Even the Italians pushed NZ all the way in June.
- Look how rusty the Wallabies and ABs often are in June. The media and coaches always talk about it, and rightly so. Well, apply the same logic to the north – and then consider the fact that the northern teams are always in “June” mode. No sooner have they started to develop some cohesion in November than they go back to their clubs for three months. It’s the same after the Six Nations – England reached the peak of their yearly performance towards the end of the 6N (as one would expect) and then the players had to disappear back to the club game for months. It’s a ridiculous system.
- I can’t think of any other sport in the world that consistently pitches together one competitor who hasn’t played for six months against another competitor who has been playing consistently for months. It’s an immense advantage. Look how long it takes tennis players to get up to speed after injury.
I don’t believe that the south’s jadedness cancels out the north’s rustiness. I think you’d take jaded and cohesive over fresh and rusty every single time. Rugby players are constantly playing tired, especially in the north, and they often produce their best stuff when tired. Imo, the southern structure is just absolutely perfect for international competition. It’s to SANZAR’s credit that they have put such a good system in place, but the northern unions really need to do something about their own calendar because they are just not giving their boys a fair chance.
fox said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:43am | Report comment
Fair nuff!
Sam said | November 11th 2009 @ 12:01pm | Report comment
I think you are stretching all this quite a bit. The simple fact is that the SH players are generally better, and their players are conditioned to travel much better – spending enormous amounts of time away from home in the Super 14 and Tri-Nations. The NH teams generally perform poorly in the June internationals – that French win in NZ was the first by a NH team in NZ since 2003, and only the second by a NH team over the All Blacks (at any venue) since then – the other was the infamous WC semi. As for the RWC, New Zealand have only ever lost to one NH team then (France twice) and South Africa have lost to one (England in pool stage RWC2003). Australia have a poorer record, having lost to Wales and France in 1987 (kinda irrelevant considering such a different season structure back then), and England three times (1995, 2003 and 2007). This hardly ranks as a much better record for NH teams in the WC. I think the season needs fixing, but don’t think it is at all the reason the NH teams have such a poor record against the SH teams.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 12:17pm | Report comment
Quite right, Sam. The NH teams must improve – home and away.
In the meantime, we’d like to rely on all the reasons we store up each year for those occasions. It makes the outcome a bit easier to swallow.
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:14pm | Report comment
Sam, clearly there are other factors at play, but this little extract from the Irish Times sums things up perfectly (and also explains why the northern calendar will never change – it’s too successful from a commercial point of view):
“Aside from England’s horrendous casualty list, it was their first Test in seven months, whereas since June the Wallabies had been virtually permanently in camp and had played a dozen Tests. Ireland, who’ve had two three-day get-togethers prior to last week in that same time, will have a similar disadvantage, though at least they are more settled than England.
“Last week Kidney spoke of the “challenges” facing Northern Hemisphere coaches in a seasonal structure which does not permit them the same smooth, elongated chunks of the year which their Southern Hemisphere counterparts enjoy. Aside from the southern teams generally having better all-round skill sets, and an ability to play at a higher intensity, this contributes to the lop-sided results of recent times. Since the 2007 World Cup, the head-to-head tally between the Tri-Nations and Six Nations is 23-2.
“However, the contrasting itineraries makes the Southern Hemisphere season more repetitive and ultimately almost boring. If the Heineken Cup were run-off in nine successive weekends, it wouldn’t generate anything like the same sense of suspense which it does in the European itinerary. Jumping back and forth between competitions may be challenging for the coaches, but it makes for far more interesting viewing”.
fox said | November 11th 2009 @ 2:17pm | Report comment
This all strikes me as excuse-mongering really. Sorry but it does. That was sort of the point of my original reply.
The results are the results. The Wallabies have had a very poor year. I’ll not make excuses other than they haven’t played well for long enough periods and have weaknesses that oppositions have cruelly exposed. Sometimes fatigue and sloppiness can ruin games. Other times it might rustiness. In the end though (absent out-and-out poor and vital refereeing decisions) it’s usually just the better team that wins.
These players are professionals. I am sure they don’t make such excuses for themselves. That’s for the editorialising of fans and the media.
(Oh how thin the air is up here on my high horse. I do apologise in advance!)
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 2:36pm | Report comment
I accept that it’s an unproveable argument (well, until such time as the north changes calendar and we can assess the changes in performance) and I acknowledge that it sounds like excuse-mongering. But there’s something Greg Martin wrote about the Ashes a few months ago that struck me. He observed that fans are inclined to look at surface results and assume that they express intrinsic truths about ability. He observed that we are loathe to acknowledge the importance of luck or other factors.
For instance, everyone hates the injury excuse in sport. It sounds weak. And yet the RFU task force that has been analysing why the English game is suffering so many injuries found that there was an amazing correlation between finishing position in the Guinness Premiership and injuries suffered. As you went down the table, so the proportion of injuries increased in direct correlation to a degree that was almost uncanny.
Equally, I was struck by something Graham Henry (or it might have been Steve Hansen) said before WC2007 – namely, that he thought the northern nations might struggle early on because they were “under-cooked” but would get stronger as the tournament went on. In the case of England and France, this is exactly how it played out.
I don’t doubt that 3N teams have better skillsets and more belief, but I equally think that rugby (especially in the north) is only scratching the surface of professionalism. I think there are a lot of factors affecting performance that we remain completely ignorant of. I’d love to see the RFU put some serious research into it.
But sure, my argument is entirely speculative, and until such time as the northern nations start to win consistently, the south will retain the bragging rights. No complaints on that score.
Sam said | November 11th 2009 @ 2:18pm | Report comment
The only reason it was their first test in seven months is because of the Lions tour, so it’s not really the norm. When the SH teams play in the June internationals often they have not played together since November the year before and have only 6 days to prepare (I know the ABs team is announced the day after the Super 14 final – and often the first test is the next Saturday). Yet they win > 80% of their matches in June. As for Australia – they are the only country that has those long training camps, because the South Africans and New Zealand return their players to domestic matches between tests – something Australia can’t do. I just don’t buy all this as an excuse for the NH. The main advantage the SH teams have is that they play in the Tri-Nations – the toughest annual tournament in the world. I’ve love to see a global calender, but don’t think it will help the NH teams one bit, if anything it will help the smaller nations, Fiji, Samoa, Argentina more then anyone else.
Damo said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:54am | Report comment
Thanks for the insight Pothale. As many Australians of Irish heritage sometimes have a slight bet the other way this should be an enjoyable game for many of us.
I will never forget the polite silence of the crowd when the Wallabies stole the 91 quarter final back with seconds left.
Chris said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:49am | Report comment
Too right – it is a game I always enjoy watching, but I always find myself somewhat torn. However, having 7 starting Brumbies in the team firmly swings me behind Australia.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:13am | Report comment
Polite? I think stunned would be better. I was there and remember it well after shouting ourselves hoarse as Hamilton roared down the pitch.
Vented Relief said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:30am | Report comment
Pothale, how do you think the battle of the breakdown will play out? Is the Irish openside in the same mould as Smith and McCaw? Who could have the advantage here?
Rickety Knees said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:41am | Report comment
Great post Pots – thanks for the effort and the insights. Like other Roarers – sorry mate – you can’t claim underdog status on this one. Ireland are grand slam champions – and through gritted teeth – will have to much class for the much maligned 09 Wallabies. If we do win – and I hope we do – it will be quite an upset.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:52am | Report comment
David Wallace is likely to play 7. He may not be as renowned as Smith or McCaw, but he has his moments. He’s been at the the heart of the Munster backrow for many years and has plenty of test caps too. If Shane Jennings of Leinster hadn’t been banned, he might have got first shot (he played at Telstra last year), but Wallace is locked into it now.
He’s a lively character, a good fetcher, and also has surprising speed over short distances, with brilliant leg drive – he’s notched quite a few tries for club and country as a result. Moody outplayed Smith last week, but then I think Moody has always been a hugely under-rated player in public acclaim. How Wallace fares against Smith this week remains to be seen.
Viscount Crouchback said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:17pm | Report comment
I always worry about Wallace when he comes up against a classic fetcher.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:59am | Report comment
I’m laughing here, Rickety. I did my best not to sound too arrogant or confident about an Irish victory, and obviously have done too good a job.
Let me put my assessment more bluntly. If Ireland get firing and on song, Australia are in for a sorry afternoon, Rocky notwithstanding. It won’t be a repeat of 2006 scoreline, cos Australia will probably get across the tryline once. But Ireland will do more.
And win.
Rickety Knees said | November 11th 2009 @ 12:28pm | Report comment
Thanks Pots – I have Irish relatives (by marriage) and friends and I really enjoy the Irish self deprecating sense of humour and humility. Back to Rugby – yeah it is hard not to see an Irish victory with O’Driscoll playing like the champion that he is.
The Other Reds Fan. said | November 11th 2009 @ 12:49pm | Report comment
If it is a dry track we will win, but if it is raining, then we will lose. Simple.
Chris said | November 11th 2009 @ 12:51pm | Report comment
The fact that some people actually think that such a big game can be reduced to such stupid analysis scares me.
PastHisBest said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:02pm | Report comment
It ain’t a horse race TORF and you’d make a terrible bookie.
Harry said | November 11th 2009 @ 1:40pm | Report comment
As a fellow Queensland rugby supporter, allow me to come to TORF’s defence, partially anyway.
I think our chances of victory will be hugely improved if it is dry and relatively windfree (as it was against England btw) as we just aren’t that experienced in cold and windy conditions. I hark back to 2006 when Ireland beat us realtively comfortably on a blustery day, hooker Moore’s throwing went to pot in the wind* and the lineout leaked possessin badly. This time round we have experience in Gits, Moore and Smith and of course, most of all, Elsom. But I think the venue will be a shock for our still realtively inexpereinced side.
*Not surrpising really as in those days they prepared for the tour in sub-tropical Coffs Harbour, then as now with no leadup or hard practice matches but a seemongly endless camp pre tour. I’m not sure whether they bothered practicing lineouts under Eddie the year before(yes I know Knuckles was coach by then0 but not surprising it all fell apart.
PastHisBest said | November 11th 2009 @ 3:03pm | Report comment
Oh I agree Harry. A dry track is indubitably in Australia’s favour, however TORF’s statement of ‘fact’ was so simplistic I had to beat it like a red-headed stepchild.
Blinky Bill from Bellingen said | November 11th 2009 @ 7:49pm | Report comment
Funny you should mention ‘red headed stepchild’. I spotted a photo of Ireland’s O’Connell on Fox & read the article and he looks like he’s set to prove the theory.
God this is a hard one to pic. It’s difficult to see Ireland not absolutely smashing us, but that’s not the movie that’s playing in my head. I’ve got our guys all over Ireland at the breakdown, lineout and scrum with our backs receiving plenty of quick clean ball.
Then when Ireland least expect it, Gits looks like having a crack at the line and does a superb off load / flick thing behind his back that wrong foots everyone but Cooper who’s on his right shoulder. Cooper makes the half break and feeds it to AAC who spins it out wide and Hynes is over. And………it’s all done in pelting rain to the absolute delight of the crowd.
The Wallabies win so well and with such style that they are all granted honorary citizenship and free Guiness for life.
Dublin Dave said | November 12th 2009 @ 8:54am | Report comment
The Other Reds Fan
“If it is a dry track we will win, but if it is raining, then we will lose. Simple.”
Bet on ireland then, mate. It’s pissing down here right now.
Brett McKay said | November 11th 2009 @ 2:58pm | Report comment
Pots, great read, a thorough, well constructed analysis of what should be a cracker this Monday morning our time. It be great to arrive at work on a Monday happy!!
Any word on who’s doing the live blog, is it you Pothale?? Best of luck to whoever it is..
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:32pm | Report comment
Guilty as charged, Brett. Shall attempt it on the Roar iPhone app from my very cosy seat, and grab a few pics if I can. Mind you, If Australian start scoring tries, I reserve the right to stop typing and drink lots of beers in compensation.
hmmmmm….. on second thoughts, I might want to do that if Ireland start scoring tries……
Let’s see how it goes.
Brett McKay said | November 12th 2009 @ 7:20am | Report comment
Best of luck then Pots – if you have half as much fun as I did while blogging the Fifth Ashes Test, you’ll still have a great time. But at least I had an ad break at the end of each over!! Look forward to joining you from my lounge room sports camp
(0130 ADST!!)
stillmissit said | November 11th 2009 @ 3:14pm | Report comment
Thanks a lot Pothale – great read that has only served to wind me up even more. I am really excited about this game on Sunday and if we win well i will be OTM.
I reckon Ireland by 8 in my head and Wallabies by 3 in my heart.
PastHisBest said | November 11th 2009 @ 3:17pm | Report comment
Now that’s what we really need on the roar, a tipping comp! Then we could see who the real champs of the autumn are.
Romey said | November 11th 2009 @ 4:16pm | Report comment
im tipping wallabies by 3. I think we all forget how tough the 3N actually is. SA were almost unstoppable this year, and the blacks were below average but still a strong team. France, ireland, or wales will NO DOUBT have finished the same place as australia in the tri-nations in that type of tournament, with similar results.
The wallabies results may look bad on paper, but they can win. The wallabies have been simply out of their depth in key match ups all year…..Smith v mccaw & brussoe.. burgess or genia v du preez, al baxter v anyone, giteau v carter or steyn….but then again, i argue that ANY team would suffer in those matchups…
it just translates to dominance all over the park , making aus look worse then they are. SA are in a class of their own, then NZ a clear second…and australia 3rd equal with all the others. (there is no clear 3rd best team yet..)
PAsthisbest – a tipping comp is much needed here! im gonna put my money where my mouth is and put a $100 bet on wallabies under 12 with ABs to win….might get about $4 on that multi me thinks.
fingers crossed. go wallabies! [ coming from an AB supporter to. ]
NickSA said | November 12th 2009 @ 12:10am | Report comment
Romey
I 100% agree with you.
The aussies are a very decent team!! I honestly think they are gonna get the grandslam….
bever fever said | November 11th 2009 @ 4:32pm | Report comment
What is the world coming to …. rah rahs at croke Park.
MarkH said | November 11th 2009 @ 7:14pm | Report comment
Cant wait. Itll be a cracker of a game. I think Cooper will really start to shine this weekend. Beers in the fridge ready to go.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:27pm | Report comment
Ah you’re probably right. Australia are probably too good for Ireland – sure no harm in wishing…..
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:53pm | Report comment
And the good news is that Jerry Flannery has recovered from injury which puts some parity back into the front five.
Kearney has also been passed fit and Heaslip may take the 8 slot after all.
There may yet be a couple of surprises in the backs line-up.
mudskipper said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:04pm | Report comment
Irish at home with a strong solid pack will be an extremely tough to win… Wallabies need to play well have a the bounce of the ball on the day…
Short-Blind. said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:07pm | Report comment
I’m with Romey’s argument, the 3N is very tough and any NH team would have likely finished 3rd up against the world champs and ABs. So OZ (the only team to have beaten the world champs this year except for the Lions in a dead rubber) are not traveling too badly. Dingo’s cultural and playing style reconstruction of the Wallabies along with his youth policy is just starting to get some traction and my expectation of their potential is growing. They should have put 5 tries on England last week except for some white line fever – it will come. Having said that at Croke they will have to win first phase ball and overcome the initial onslaught from Ireland and crowd factor. IF they can do that and be in the game at half time I expect them to come away with it late with a 10 point win. Another concern I have is G. Smith’s form. I’ve just watched last weeks game for the second time and I have to say he just does not seem like the George of old. Not sure if it is mental or he is just slowing up with age but when I compared his performance against what Ritchie did against Wales – light years! Dingo may pick Pocock anyway. I went to an Irish wedding on the south coast last weekend and got in touch with half my heritage – had one of the best nights of my life so I will not begrudge a loss to the fine nation of Ireland…..may the best team win.
stillmissit said | November 12th 2009 @ 6:54am | Report comment
Short-Blind – this is not an attack on your argument but you just happened to mention it at the right time.
After reading and grudgingly agreeing that George Smith was not up to his normal standard, I re-watched the first 30 mins on the England test (Now that takes some doing).
Smith was into everything and pulled off 3 critical tackles and was first there in most of the breakdowns and was all over them. The penalty that the fox coverage was suggesting was George was actually Alexander who was so offside he could have been playing halfback for England. I came away from the 30mins from hell with a renewed enthusiasm for one George Smith. Sure he ain’t up to McCaws standard but only the SA youngster is at that level. My partner mentioned that he never looks happy these days and I guess he has had a tough trot.
He is still our best openside, Pocock may get there but he should be doing more if he is going to be the next Wunderkind.
AndyS said | November 12th 2009 @ 3:30pm | Report comment
Looking at the team selections, I suspect that this week is very much about using Pocock to blunt the Irish backrow. It is going to get real willing this weekend and throwing Smith in after 50 is not a bad tactic.
Cameron of Melbourne said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:42pm | Report comment
This is kinda off topic but according to a recent survey, Rugby is now the most popular sport in Ireland.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2009/1111/1224258553807.html
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:48pm | Report comment
I’d normally agree with the point being made about the 3N, except this year, the ABs were pretty poor by their standards, and I reckon that If Ireland had played them in June, they would have had a better than even chance, given their success this year. For the ABs to be whitewashed by SA is not just about how good SA are, cos they aren’t, NZ certainly have had a slip. Their game against Wales was nothing to write home about, and no particular satisfaction was gained from it by the team, or in the eyes of the NZ media.
France played them twice and squared it. Australia played them 3 times, and lost all three.
Australia “should have put 5 tries on England” sounds like an excuse from a NH team if you don’t mind me saying it.
ohtani's jacket said | November 12th 2009 @ 12:41am | Report comment
The NZ media were reasonably satisfied with the result against Wales. This is a workmanlike All Black side, but they probably have more chance of winning a World Cup by being a working class side than they do by blitzing everyone on the end of year tours. They’d beat the Irish if they were playing them this tour. Probably would’ve beaten them in June too. Unless the Irish pack is better than I’m giving them credit for.
Knives Out said | November 11th 2009 @ 11:24pm | Report comment
Ireland: R Kearney, T Bowe, B O’Driscoll, P Wallace, L Fitzgerald, R O’Gara, T O’Leary; C Healy, J Flannery, J Hayes, P O’Connell, D O’Callaghan, S Ferris, D Wallace, J Heaslip.
Replacements: S Cronin, T Court, L Cullen, D Leamy, E Reddan, J Sexton, K Earls.
pothale said | November 11th 2009 @ 11:40pm | Report comment
Close enough.
Glad to see Cullen in there, in case the lineout needs a change-up. Court was the obvious back-up, and good for Cronin – I suspect he may get some game time if Flannery’s ankle suffers a twinge.
Leamy has played all three positions in the back-row.
Reddan for O’Leary or possibly Reddan and Sexton to replace the Munster pair of half-tends.
And finally Earls as utility.
Am pleased for Paddy Wallace – he’s earned his 12 spot on current form, and he’s no stranger to playing Australia.
How’s Egypt going then, KO?
mcxd said | November 11th 2009 @ 11:47pm | Report comment
i think thats an excellent irish side. Mixture of experience, hard forwards and exciting adventurist backs..take out O’Gara and the backline would be on fire… hes only there for his kicking. (and thats damn good)
Oh dear, it will be a valiant effort for the wallabies to win this one. Then again i did pick Ireland to go well in 2007 RWC. Who knows what will happen . I suppose thats why everyones looking forward to this one.
NickSA said | November 12th 2009 @ 12:05am | Report comment
aussies are gonna win, wont be a thrashing but aussies will pull through…
Short-Blind. said | November 12th 2009 @ 5:54am | Report comment
Pots – the 5 try comment was not meant as an excuse or to belittle England, rather one to illustrate the potential ‘upside’ of this Wallaby outfit i.e. they can break down a defensive line however need to learn how to finish and be a little less selfish when in the red zone, BTW you there is no need for excuses if you win the game
Good luck on Sunday I wish I was there.
stillmissit said | November 12th 2009 @ 7:04am | Report comment
Christ I wish I had the blind optimism of a Blinky or NickSA. Ireland is at full strength and the current Wallabies have rarely put in 2 good performances but ‘rather than optimism there is hope’ (sounds like a quote from Lord of the RIngs).
We will struggle at Lineout time, I can’t believe we can turn that mess around in a week. The breakdown is my real worry we were run over by the English in the first 30mins, we can’t afford that against Ireland.
Strangely I feel comfortable with our backs, it is our forwards and how much resolve they bring to this game, that is what is keeping me awake at night.
I think I must get up and watch this one, don’t want to lay awake wondering how the boys are doing.
stuff happens said | November 12th 2009 @ 8:46am | Report comment
Thanks Pothale,
This is a very good Irish team and Australia will need to play extremely well to beat them.The Irish have terrific players in key positions : O’Connell & his mate at lock, Heaslip & Ferris in the back row.
Heaslip was outstanding in the Lions win in the final test in SA and I thought Ferris was a Lions test certainty until he was injured.In the final test of last year’s 6N against Wales in Cardiff it was the Irish back row that got them over the line. They were clearly better than the Welsh although Ryan Jones seems to rejuvenated this season.BOD is one of the greats and good luck to him for his 100th cap.I also thought Kearney was terrific in SA.Both FItzgerald and Bowe are very good wings.
Ireland’s weakness as we know is O’Gara’s all round game, particularly his tackling – he will expect a lot of traffic from Palu & Pocock.As others have mentioned not playing for months is a big disadvantage.
But Declan Kidney has been a big success as a coach in Ireland.He’s a smart guy.I think they’ll be hard to beat
fox said | November 12th 2009 @ 9:14am | Report comment
I agree stillmissit, I am fairly (and strangely) comfortable with the Wallaby backs. They just need front foot ball and lots of it. if they get that then Ireland will have a tough time keeping us out. So in that you are correct, forward dominance, as ever, will be the key. We’ll need to clear our lines well too, as O’Gara has the ability to keep us in our own half unless we can a) kick back effectively while avoiding too many lineouts or b) run it out of trouble and retain possession.
On another note entirely and even though nobody’s really going to care, let me have a big whinge about the Sunday scheduling. Whinge begins now: What the hell?! Nevermind that 2am AEST on a Monday morning is going to hurt most, but I will be in Auckland this weekend where it will be a 4am start. That is particularly annoying as I have a 6am flight back to Sydney. How will I avoid rugby fans and news all day Monday until I can watch the recording?! Whinge over.
stillmissit said | November 12th 2009 @ 10:31am | Report comment
I understand how you feel as I suffered from similar situations during my working life. Try being in America when a test is on there is nothing on the TV there.
Now I am retired, every day is a good day and I dont give a stuff what you call it, the sun comes up and the sun goes down.
Retirement is the great gift for poor bastards like me who worked 70 hour weeks for years and years. Wish I had done it sooner.
The game, the game, ah! the game, it has me. I hear it is pissing down, my hopes are falling with that rain.
fox said | November 12th 2009 @ 1:55pm | Report comment
I am thinking of retiring myself actually to become a full time contributor to the Roar forums. Why – don’t you get paid for your contributions?!
Dublin Dave said | November 12th 2009 @ 9:56pm | Report comment
Fox
Re your whinge about the game taking place on a Sunday. I sympathise to an extent but in this case there was no choice. The Irish soccer team is taking part in a vital world cup qualification play off on Saturday against France at Croke Park and there simply isn’t another stadium in the country big enough to warrant hosting an Ireland Australia test. Which is of course a sell out.
Anyway, even if the new Lansdowne Road stadium were available I would question the wisdom of playing two such major events on the same day in the same city. Each would dilute the other.
As it is, there is a wonderful prospect of weekend sport in store, although letting head rule heart, we are likely to be in despondent mood on Saturday evening. Depending on what transpires on Sunday, we could be cheered up immeasurably or slumped even further in the depths of depression.
Your whinge brings me on to a pet peeve of my own: namely the hare-brained notion frequently put forward by people south of the equator that the global rugby season should be synchronised so that it takes place at the same time in either hemisphere. With of course the understanding that Europe shifts its rugby calendar to its summer so that it coincides with the Southern Winter.
As can be seen, there are enough events clashing with each other even at this time of year to cause scheduling problems. If you then want to move rugby out of winter and into the summer months it would be clashing with even more summer sports. In particular in this country it would run slap bang into the middle of the GAA season. And then in countries which enjoy sports like cricket, you would be cutting across enjoyment of that sport too. Notwithstanding the fact that every two years, in Europe at any rate, there are the finals of a major soccer tournament taking place, either the Euro Championship or the World Cup.
All of which ignores the simple basic reason why we in the Northern Hemisphere invented soccer and rugby in the first place: as distractions from our miserable short-dayed winters. It’s one of the few things that make life bearable up here at this time of year. And some sourthern numbskulls want to take it away from us just to satisfy a marketing schedule????
They can go to hell!!
pothale said | November 12th 2009 @ 9:34am | Report comment
Well, obviously, now that the team is out, and Flannery, Wallace, O’Gara and Heaslip are in place, I can be more certain of how the team is likely to play.
Heaslip is a barnstormer at 8, and if he can repeat some of his form from last season – Irl v France with his storming, pacy run to the tryline and score; the explosive, gainline breaking game for the Lions in the 3rd test; his games for Leinster in the Munster semi-final and Leicester H Cup final, then we’re in for a great afternoon.
Flannery is a feisty, fiery hooker who is one of the most driven, intense players I’ve seen play on a rugby pitch, when he gets his game face on for Munster and Ireland, you just know that he is willing to go anywhere, tackle anything and put his body on the line for the team. With him back in the front row, and Healy in the form he’s in, I think Robinson, Hore and Moore aren’t going to have it all their own way, after all.
I can see O’Connell returning to his imperial best – that stunning scene from that day in February 2007, as he soared over 12 feet in the air at Croke Park to take England’s ball in one hand and launch another wave of attack from the backline.
Even O’Gara may surprise me, as he recovers his form, and that grim determination that enters his demeanour as he coldly starts directing play around the field, setting the line in motion, spraying kicks left and right, turning the opposition time and time again, wearing out the opposition forwards as they trudge wearily back into their 22 for another hotly contested lineout, nerves frazzling, and O’Gara’s face doesn’t show a flicker of emotion.
The roar of the crowd rising as O’Driscoll probes once again the defensive line, and makes the break, cutting, scything, swerving forward, as his backline lieutenants, Fitzgerald, Kearney and Bowe, sweep in behind him to finish out the break and touch the ball down.
Ooh yes, I’ve got goosebumps already. This is gonna be a good one.
Ireland hard to beat? Make that impossible.
Terry Kidd said | November 12th 2009 @ 9:43am | Report comment
Lol Pothale …. good one, you brought a smile to my face. Yes, I hope O’Gara does spray his kicks all game …. all over the shop …. he may kick as often as he likes because we will run it back with interest !!!!!
I expect O’Gara to be hanging his head, and puffing with fatigue, as another Wallaby attack goes thru his channel, and as the players inside and outside him move to cover Cooper will set a wider running Giteau and Inone and ACC free with accurate clearing passes.
A tough, exciting match but the Wallabies by 4.
pothale said | November 12th 2009 @ 10:09am | Report comment
If O’Gara goes red-faced at some point in the match, and losing the plot, time for Kidney to get out the shepherd’s crook and haul him ashore and put Sexton on. Easy.
Re the match being on Sunday, two possible reasons.
a) Ireland play France in a WC qualifier the day before so Croke Park not available, but I’m not sure if the dates were decided that early and held open in case Ireland qualified.
b) TV company deals. Wales and France games on Friday as a double bill. Italy, England and Scotland on the Saturday, and the bonanza on the Sunday with Ireland/Australia.
Worlds Biggest said | November 12th 2009 @ 10:48am | Report comment
Great article, Ireland should be clear favourites. Playing at home, current 6 N Champs and the Wallabies just can’t string back to back wins and or ( performances ) against quality teams. A good mate of mine in Dublin tells me there isn’t a lot of hype around this game and all eyes are on the Springboks ( Lions revenge ). There appears to be a lot of talk about Rocky’s return but outside of that Irish fans want a crack at the World Champs which is fair enough. Perhaps the Irish players might also be casting one eye on the Boks. Here’s hoping as it might give our guys a chance !. A win for the Wallabies would be huge however I think Ireland win by 7 points.
NickSA said | November 12th 2009 @ 5:27pm | Report comment
I think you guys are giving ireland way to much credit. The wallabies lost to one of the best bok sides ever produced (don’t forget they pulled an upset off aswell) and to a very good all black team!! The all black team looked very comfortable in their win over wales. I think people are underestimating aus because of the tri nations!! i just feel aus has to much quality for this irish team but we will see…
mcxd said | November 12th 2009 @ 7:14pm | Report comment
Im a bit concerned with the rather raw centres against one of the best BOD. Weve seen what he did with the Lions. I predict him to have a big game. (damn i wish his ancestors got caught stealing a loaf of bread or something).
Dublin Dave said | November 13th 2009 @ 2:12am | Report comment
According to the, admittedly incomplete, transportation records of convicts sent from Ireland to Australia in the 18th and 19th centuries, only one person called O’Driscoll was packed off to the penal colony and his crime is not detailed. I think that shows an admirable foresight on the part of the authorities of the time.
Mind you the same records show that there were 14 Finnegans, 21 O’Connors, 44 Horans and a whopping 695 Murphys, any one of whom might have been the ancestor of the Miss Murphy who became Mrs Campese and spawned little David about 45 years ago.
So I think we have been generous enough to the Aussie Rugby gene pool.
mcxd said | November 13th 2009 @ 7:26am | Report comment
ha ha well done Dave. Actually i number of years ago (2004 ? i think) i remember Owen Finegan leading the Sydney St. Patricks day parade. Sitting up on the main car waving it was hard to miss his big head. I also won’t forget his 1999 World Cup final try against France. Thank you Ireland !
Terry Kidd said | November 13th 2009 @ 5:19am | Report comment
Good one Dave, nice riposte …. and fair enough too. The Zimbabwean, PNG and Tongan gene pools have done ok for us too.
pothale said | November 13th 2009 @ 7:47am | Report comment
So do any Australians actually play for Australia? I mean even the journalists are not Australian – right Spiro?
Terry Kidd said | November 13th 2009 @ 7:53am | Report comment
Lol ….. being a nation with a convict heritage we will steal our mix of ethnicity from anywhere …..
pothale said | November 13th 2009 @ 11:08pm | Report comment
With all of the goodwill and general cheer around this match, there seemed to be little hard analysis amongst Irish media of the game against Australia. Lots of sideline cheering and friendly faces have greeted the Australian squad led by Elsom.
Finally today, a guy called Liam Toland, who I have a lot of time for as an analyst, published the following piece:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2009/1113/1224258724517.html
Toland has the distinction of being one of the few players to have crossed the divide between warring provinces Munster and Leinster.
He started out as flanker with Munster and then moved to Leisnter, captaining them on his debut match and playing 36 matches for them including Heineken Cup matches.
An army man, he now is a regular analyst for Setanta.
His assessment of the breakdown, and the need to target the jackal (first opposition defender to the ball) is nicely done, and points up the challenge for Ireland on Sunday. Not amongst the forwards, but in the backline.
O’Driscoll and Darcy are the consummate jackals, with both of them superb at getting in the tackle and being first on the ball. The inclusion of Wallace at 12 weakens this partnership in his view, and hands some advatnage to Q Cooper and Ioane. However, the inexperienced pair (in contrast to Ireland’s centres) will have their hands full in making space and creating lines for other runners.
worthwhile having a read to see whether you agree with his analysis and insight.