There’s been a lot of conjecture about whether or not the Western Sydney AFL team will be successful and even more about the ignition of a “war” between the NRL and the AFL now Kevin Sheedy has been appointed.
It all makes good press and it keeps both codes on the back pages during the off season.
But there’s every reason to think the Western Sydney team will be successful in the long term and no reason at all to suggest that this success will have any impact on the NRL or the NRL teams based in Western Sydney.
Crowd surveys of the big games involving the Swans at ANZ Stadium consistently reveal 15,000 to 20,000 of those attending do not go to watch the Swans play at the SCG because it is too hard for them to get there.
Then consider the number of people who live in Western Sydney who grew up in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, all of whom would love to watch live AFL matches if they were easier to get to.
It’s not really big stretch to imagine a team in Western Sydney growing to a steady membership base of 25,000–30,000 and being able to attract crowds of 35,000 for regular matches and 50,000 for big games.
Obviously not right away, but it’s definitely achievable in the long haul.
And having such a team in the local community could well triple the number of local junior clubs and junior registrations.
But here’s the thing: there are so many people living in Western Sydney (more than Adelaide and Perth combined), that the numbers I am talking about aren’t all that significant.
There’s no reason to think those sort of numbers would have any impact on the membership rates and attendances of any of the NRL clubs based in Western Sydney. The impact would probably be less than the impact the Swans have had on the Roosters (which is zero).
Nor should it have any effect on registrations in junior rugby league competitions.
Even if the Western Sydney Club has some success in attracting talented local junior sports people from other sports to special academy programs, these athletes would come from a number other sports (soccer, union, basketball, as well as league) and the gross number each year wouldn’t be significant to any one sport.
Certainly not large enough to have an impact on the amount and quality of talent those sports would continue to produce.
And if the Western Sydney Team develops the sort of rivalry with the Swans that Port Power has with the Crows and Fremantle has with the West Coast, then matches between the two will become additional big events for the city of Sydney.
But that won’t mean we’ll be any less inclined to support the Blues against the Maroons.
All the naysayers who spruke the line that the Western Sydney AFL team is doomed remind me of the brother in-law of Kevin Costner in “Field of Dreams”.
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November 11th 2009 @ 6:17pm
tifosi said | November 11th 2009 @ 6:17pm | Report comment
Mark geyer throwing his two cents as well. See the WAR is on !!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/lhqnews/tell-the-afl-theyre-dreaming-says-geyer/2009/11/10/1257615040287.html
Also I find it funny that the GWS team is meant to appeal to us Canberran’s. Sell that story somewhere else. The AFL sold Canberra out with Nth Melbourne for money, dont expect us to follow this team now.
November 11th 2009 @ 6:20pm
tifosi said | November 11th 2009 @ 6:20pm | Report comment
Also West Sydney might be NRL Heartland. But the epicentre for league is now Brisbane. Plenty of room for the AFL to move in.
November 11th 2009 @ 7:10pm
Pippinu said | November 11th 2009 @ 7:10pm | Report comment
Brisbane is a model for all football clubs: one big city, one team in each code/league.
The only problem is – there ain’t too many Brisbanes in Australia.
November 11th 2009 @ 8:29pm
amused said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:29pm | Report comment
league games dont even get those numbers.
good luck to a GWS AFL team getting that. maybe IN 25 years
November 11th 2009 @ 8:57pm
Pippinu said | November 11th 2009 @ 8:57pm | Report comment
amused
one could argue that that in itself creates an opportunity to get bums on seat – I’m not saying that will necessarily happen – but what you are describing means that there is in fact space in the market place for more live football.
November 11th 2009 @ 9:47pm
westy said | November 11th 2009 @ 9:47pm | Report comment
Of the track i know but given the references in some posts I read the SMH/Australian/Tele in Sydney (provided free)and i I have to state that it is the SMH that has deteriorated. It has sacked journalists and appears torn between trying to be a quality broadsheet and becoming a down market tabloid. The tele is where it has always been. I have to say that the Australian relative to the SMH has much improved. I may not agree with its editorials or opinion but its quality and analysis is on the up.. Not to recognise this would be unjust despite it being a News Ltd publication. Secondly unlike Fairfax publications it has seen fit to maintain its journalistic staff.
November 11th 2009 @ 10:06pm
westy said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:06pm | Report comment
I also need to point out having lived in Western Sydney now for over 55 years it is highly misleading to say it is dominated by rugby league. At a junior and senior level in both participants and registered players it has always been dominated by football. There is daylight to second. this has not changed since 1930s.
Rugby league clubs have however offered the main focus for regional support and identity. If Parramatta/penrith / Wests Tigers or Canterbury are in a grand final the west votes with its feet and the grand final is an automatic sellout no matter who they play.
For example Parramatta is an aboriginal name and the Eel a most unlikely mascot but distinctly Australian unlike many other NRL and AFL mascots. It has much latent appeal even to non followers of rugby league in western Sydney . It is in community identity that rugby league has succeeded in the west not in numbers . never has never will.
November 11th 2009 @ 10:33pm
Midfielder said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:33pm | Report comment
Front page story of the Blacktown Advocate this week
http://blacktown-advocate.whereilive.com.au/sport/story/khalil-and-his-australian-team-go-down-in-world-qualifiers/
November 11th 2009 @ 10:44pm
MyGeneration said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:44pm | Report comment
The war is over! Beach Soccer has taken the West!
November 11th 2009 @ 10:50pm
Midfielder said | November 11th 2009 @ 10:50pm | Report comment
Front page story of the Blacktown Advocate last week sorry front page and second page..
http://blacktown-advocate.whereilive.com.au/sport/story/europes-first-afghani-football-star-calls-blacktown-home/
November 12th 2009 @ 11:37am
Simmo said | November 12th 2009 @ 11:37am | Report comment
Food for thought for the Code Warriors: the official name of beach soccer is…
Beach Soccer.
November 12th 2009 @ 1:57pm
albatross said | November 12th 2009 @ 1:57pm | Report comment
Beasal really – but also Beach Football and Sand Soccer
It is called Beach Soccer by the commercial promoters in the US where it has wide participation so as not to confuse the poor old seppos into thinking they have to wear all that padding and gear to play. And so it is generically known by that name elsewhere from convenience.
November 12th 2009 @ 3:38pm
Spanner said | November 12th 2009 @ 3:38pm | Report comment
Redb, Agree these teams have always been the strugglers and what did the AFL do to them. Sth Melb and Fitzroy were shut down or ask the AFL and they say transplanted. Footscray nearly went, Nth Melb suggested to close down and be transplanted, good on them for telling them to shove it. Afl will wait for them to go broke and let them die. Nobody wants to play at Melb anymore. Back then the rich teams won the AFL and they brought in the cap and draft in conjunction with the expansion and today the the teams with home grounds win. The struggler never had a hope. I am just trying to stick up for the guy who once followed his team in Melbourne. I watch all codes live every year and I always love watching the passionate supporters that dream of their team winning a GF. I feel the AFL is taking this away and spruiking it as great for the game. Who’s game????
November 12th 2009 @ 4:06pm
Pippinu said | November 12th 2009 @ 4:06pm | Report comment
Spanner
there is one point that is clear (which touches on what you are saying).
If, say, the AFL goes to a 20 team comp (big if mind you), then you’re right – if a team like mine can’t win in a 12 team comp – they have even less chance in a 20 team comp!! (mind you, one could argue that that’s just life in the big city)
Intriguingly, and we like to pinch ideas from the NFL, a 20 team comp does allow for a serious conference system (Victoria’s 10 teams, and the rest of Australia), so that you have a one in 10 chance of winning a conference title (for what it’s worth), and then you have a separate finals system that involves the top teams in each conference playing off for the flag.
We would perhaps not follow the US’ lead in calling it the World Series.
November 12th 2009 @ 4:22pm
AndyRoo said | November 12th 2009 @ 4:22pm | Report comment
Parramatta have never won the competition since I have been old enough to enjoy it. They have won a couple of wooden spoons though and lost 2 grand finals (and a million semi finals…one from 18 points up with less than 20 mins to go) I have still had a lot of good times supporting them.
Hey could be a lot worse you could be a European football fan and follow one of those teams that due to their being no salary cap will never ever win the league… in that case you set mini goals. Say perhaps “as long as we beat Carlton this year”
Or you just become deluded and irrational and declare your side the best team that didn’t cheat…works for me
Flag winning only attracts plastic fans, there will always be one team winning for those people to support. When I was a kid we called the Bulls (Chicago Bulls) fans.
November 13th 2009 @ 6:26am
Michael C said | November 13th 2009 @ 6:26am | Report comment
That’s how it used to be for StKilda back late 70s in through the ’80s pre VFL moving to AFL with salary cap etc.
StKilda was a basket case with stuff all prospects…..and their big effort each year seemed to be to get up and do very well against Essendon!! (hey Redb!!!). And when teams we so low, then round 22 would be attacked like their ‘grand final’.
November 13th 2009 @ 1:27pm
Redb said | November 13th 2009 @ 1:27pm | Report comment
Spanner,
My team Essendon would be classifed as a rich club, but from 1966 to 1983 – we didnt win a premiership and barely made the finals for the entire 1970s decade! This was pre draft, pre salary cap, pre expansion.
At least the AFL has systems to give all clubs a go, like I said perpetual bottom dwellers St Kilda and Bulldogs are top 4 teams at the moment.
In many sporting competitions around the world clubs like South Melbourne and Fitzroy would have gone the way of the dodo if not for relocation and funds from other clubs via an indepedent comission. That is life.
If the AFL gets to 20 teams it will need to look seriously at conferences and then we will have the opportunity for say 4 teams to finish top of their table,etc.
Redb
November 16th 2009 @ 9:38am
Redb said | November 16th 2009 @ 9:38am | Report comment
There should be war.
All the negativity from the NRL media and paranoid fans will just steel our resolve to grow our great game regardless.
AFL footy is the best spectator football code in the country, what are they afraid of?
Redb
November 16th 2009 @ 9:40am
M1tch said | November 16th 2009 @ 9:40am | Report comment
Paul Osborne – “It’s a pretty ordinary game and we’ve got a much better product.”
He doesnt sounds paranoid
November 16th 2009 @ 9:46am
Redb said | November 16th 2009 @ 9:46am | Report comment
no just delusional. AFL has the best live product.
Any smart CEO will back his own game but rarely put down others. This may score points with insular and zenophobic fans but polarises the rest, you want everyone to follow your club no matter if they like other sports.
and the rest of the NRL hacks ?
November 16th 2009 @ 9:51am
M1tch said | November 16th 2009 @ 9:51am | Report comment
LOL, thats your opinion and that was his, and i agree with Ozzy, live or on TV League is better, my opinion.
What I love is no matter what anyone says they cant win..
November 16th 2009 @ 10:06am
Redb said | November 16th 2009 @ 10:06am | Report comment
much like the AFL, cant win. No approach to Western Sydney will be deemed satisfactory fo the NRL boffins.
Its war, its invasion – that is “no matter what anyone says they cant win”
re best live game – my opinion and 7 million Australians.
Even in Sydney and Brisbane where NRL types will tell people till their blue in the face that AFL has no presence, the Swans and Lions draw good crowds, very good crowds.
Best live ‘product’ easily.
TV product can improve but hey still managed the biggest TV deal.
The speed of ball movement both in the air and on the ground on a panoramic field that makes AFL such a good live spectator game also makes it more difficult for TV to cover. TV camera techonology will improve with HD, wide screeen, better angles, etc.
Redb
November 16th 2009 @ 9:50am
Redb said | November 16th 2009 @ 9:50am | Report comment
This is a quote of what Sheedy said about rugby league from the Australian newspaper:
“We’re not here to go around annoying rugby and rugby league necessarily, we’re here to give kids an opportunity who may not want to play rugby or league.”
November 16th 2009 @ 9:52am
M1tch said | November 16th 2009 @ 9:52am | Report comment
wide word of sports tv show..he said courage
November 16th 2009 @ 10:08am
Redb said | November 16th 2009 @ 10:08am | Report comment
context?
November 16th 2009 @ 10:10am
M1tch said | November 16th 2009 @ 10:10am | Report comment
phil gould said, are you going after rugby league players?
sheedy said. i wouldnt think so, we are offering a option for players who might not have body or courage to play league’
along those lines
November 16th 2009 @ 10:15am
Redb said | November 16th 2009 @ 10:15am | Report comment
along those lines.
You do need courage to play AFL footy, maybe Sheeds was playing to his audience a bit, has been known to do that.
I can just imagine, Phil Gould chief NRL xenophobe hoping for a “they’re gunna raid us quote/response” gets a throw away line to ‘play down’ the whole paranoia about AFL poaching NRL players for WS.