By pothale -
November 26th 2009 @ 2:33am
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Loading ...123 Vs 456 in the Battle of the Hemispheres
No, it’s not a numbers game, just the last weekend of the November Internationals when the final round of the Battle of the Hemispheres takes place and Australia could find themselves in sixth spot by the time the final whistle blows on Saturday evening.
The top six teams line themselves neatly up against each other:
1 Vs 4
2 Vs 5
3 Vs 6
New Zealand, the number one team, play France, the top ranked Northern Hemisphere team in Marseilles. The All Blacks have dubbed it their game of the season (Well, I suppose they would now, having been drubbed 3-0 by the Boks).
They want to be the only Southern Hemisphere team to have a clean sweep of the Northern Hemisphere to finish their season.
The French, as is their wont, have stayed relatively quiet. But Lievremont knows that to finish the year with two New Zealand wins on his CV, along with the one taken from the Boks a few weeks ago, sets out the stall of France for the World Cup very clearly.
South Africa will be looking to finish the year as the number one ranked team as they seek to demolish Ireland, the Grand Slam champions, currently ranked fifth.
The Boks have had one win out of four matches so far on tour. Their coach, Peter de Villiers, says the match is no more important than any other they’ve played this year.
Neither are his pre-match comments, it would seem.
de Villiers doesn’t think this is a revenge match for the Lions series. He says Schalk Burger was found innocent of eye-gouging, unlike three Irish players earlier this year. And he thinks Brian O’Driscoll is entitled to his opinion the same as the half of Ireland who want Paul O’Connell to captain the team.
No stirring there, then.
Kidney doesn’t do emotion. He’s announced his team today, and has bucked public expectations by picking the 24 year old Jonny Sexton at 10, leaving O’Gara on the bench.
The young Leinster 10 gave a fine debut performance against Fiji in the RDS last weekend. The Croke Park cauldron awaits to see if he will emerge as the long-term successor to O’Gara.
Wales, in sixth spot, aim to complete Australia’s Grand Ham tour of misery and dislodge them from their third-place ranking that the Wallabies have been clinging onto desperately all year.
Gatland wants to have Southern Hemisphere scalps on his belt as prepares his team for the WC ‘11, and this will be the perfect fillip for the Welsh as they head into next year’s 6 Nations.
For Australia, winning this match might mean avoiding wholesale changes in the management and positions of senior players in the team. Deans seems safe enough.
It’s the players who need to deliver.
No pressure then. Just another weekend of rugby.
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(96)
Blacky said | November 26th 2009 @ 4:38am | Report comment
‘third-place ranking that the Wallabies have been clinging onto desperately all year.’
I hardly think the wallabies have been ‘desperately’ trying to cling onto their ranking. Especially since the hemispheres play different timed seasons and there was no chance of being over taken whilst the tri-nations was in progress.
The ranking itself is seldom mentioned in Australian media, certainly not as much as it is in SA. I also think the wallabies have much more to ‘desperately’ worry about than a ranking system.
I do think though, that by the end of the coming 6 nations (and possibly by this weekend) France and possibly Ireland will have taken over the wallabies but certainly not by too much. Then by the end of the next 3N the wallabies will have over taken them again.
Not such big news…..unless your Irish or French.
Knives Out said | November 26th 2009 @ 4:45am | Report comment
Perhaps Pothale means symbolically clinging on, i.e. keeping up with NZ and SA or being deposited into the masses with Wales, France, England, Argentina and Ireland.
‘I do think though, that by the end of the coming 6 nations (and possibly by this weekend) France and possibly Ireland will have taken over the wallabies but certainly not by too much. Then by the end of the next 3N the wallabies will have over taken them again.’
Can’t beat a good dose of confidence, eh.
Blacky said | November 26th 2009 @ 5:25am | Report comment
confidence? After a draw and then last weeks diabolical game…
With even more injuries added to the injuries list the wallabies would be lucky to beat Italy let alone Wales. I normally try to get in a test or two every November tour but thank god I had a change of heart this year and didn’t buy a ticket to see this coming Wales test.
This weekend I’m off to watch Harlequins/Gloucester instead.
Knives Out said | November 26th 2009 @ 6:16am | Report comment
‘With even more injuries added to the injuries list’
What injuries?
‘This weekend I’m off to watch Harlequins/Gloucester instead.’
Enjoy that with this current stinking weather.
Blacky said | November 26th 2009 @ 6:34am | Report comment
Off the top of my head – Horne, Barnes, Mortlock, Sharpe, Palu, Genia, Robinson,
Knives Out said | November 26th 2009 @ 6:36am | Report comment
Aside from the two test players Barnes and Mortlock nothing has been finalised about the condition of Robinson, Palu or Genia.
Blacky said | November 26th 2009 @ 6:37am | Report comment
Ioane (shoulder), Elsom (quad), Kepu (ankle) are all in a race against the clock to be fit for selection.
Daniel J said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:27pm | Report comment
Mate it could get alot worse
http://www.irb.com/rankings/news/newsid=2034561.html#wallabies+battle+avoid+rankings+fall
pothale said | November 26th 2009 @ 7:01am | Report comment
The ranking is seldom mentioned in Australian media?
Who you kidding? Australia take great pride in being part of SANZAR and in the top 3 teams of the world. They regularly like to mention it whenever international test time comes round – because it’s relevant.
And I think that if Australia were to end up in 6th spot come Monday morning, they’re would be plenty of their fans giving them a shellacking if any of the angst and outright despair on the Roar is anything to go by.
The assumption that they would overtake them again come the end of the 3N either points to a flaw in the ranking system (since Australia won only one of their matches in the 3N) or you’re assuming they’ll win their June tests against whoever they’re playing (I know one of them is Ireland).
fox said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:35am | Report comment
The difference is that, rightly or wrongly, the ARU, the Wallabies staff and players, and Australia’s rugby fans en masse, are primarily concerned with where Australia stands in the tri-nations. Obviously we are bottom rung and one would reek of desparate straw clinging should we start emphasising “we’re still ranked third in the world”! Such a claim might be short-lived anyway.
Rusty said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:51am | Report comment
in the last 10 years of rugby Australia has not fallen below 5th place, in fact disregarding the ‘07 world cup then its been never lower than 4th place (Eddie Jones’s last run). For the Wallabies to fall out of the top 3 where they have consistently been and below either of those positions would certainly make this the worst performing side in a decade. Those are facts and it would certainly draw focus from the fans and administrators alike.
Lee said | November 26th 2009 @ 4:48am | Report comment
I can’t help but feel for Sexton, Boks have got to be a tough team to play in only teh second start of a test career. How he handles that type of defense will definately prove his worth to Ireland.
On the plus side though, happy that O’Gara is relegated to the bench, it seems that karma caught up with him against the Boks in the 2nd Lions test and maybe they are worried it’s not done.
Knives Out said | November 26th 2009 @ 6:39am | Report comment
Well, Blacky, if any of those players don’t feature then I guess it will be a reasonably fair contest given the absence of Adam Jones, Dafyyd Jones, Mike Phillips, Tom Shanklin and Lee Byrne.
stillmissit said | November 26th 2009 @ 7:12am | Report comment
Well at least this supporter cares about the rankings. The only issue I had was I was looking up not down!
stillmissit said | November 26th 2009 @ 7:14am | Report comment
Pothale – What is the buzz on the SA v Ireland game? Could be a good watch although the TV thieves Foxtel has taken to showing interesting (non Australia) games on Sentana which you have to pay extra for. So we may not see it.
It is a certainty we wont see NZ v France.
Knives Out said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:01am | Report comment
stillmissit, try Justintv or p2p.
stillmissit said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:20am | Report comment
Knives – had a look at it to try to watch the Cardiff game but they didnt have it on.
Knives Out said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:28am | Report comment
Here’s another tip: the BBC sport website will show any games being shown on BBC. To find out which (if any) games are ever on BBC then check the Paddy Power website. The rugby union odds page will always list which games are televised. If Wales are playing (or a Welsh team in the Magners league) then it’s worth investigating the SC4 website (a Welsh speaking TV channell that shows live games on the internet). Beyond that you could check out a British rugby blog/chat site, ‘Rucku’. Members will often have links to games being shown on the net.
Justin said | November 26th 2009 @ 12:46pm | Report comment
Cheers KO, very hand info to know.
Joh4Canberra said | November 27th 2009 @ 11:37pm | Report comment
Justin, stillmissit, knives out & others: you may want to read my post below. You can only watch rugby on the BBC and S4C sites if you are in the UK. It won’t work from outside of the UK (eg Australia). The BBC and S4C sites register your IP address and works out where you are in the world. If you don’t have an IP address from a UK based ISP then you can’t access the content. The reason for this is copyright law. When these TV channels acquire the rights to broadcast the matches they only acquire the UK and not the worldwide broadcast rights.
But there is more than one way to skin a cat if you care to read my post below.
stillmissit said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:19am | Report comment
Opps! I bucketted Foxtel too soon. Having not shown the NZ v Eng match I was expecting more of the same but no, we get all 3 games live.
Love my Foxtell – (I dont think)
Chris said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:27am | Report comment
Setanta only has the rights to the games in England (except when they played Australia).
pothale said | November 26th 2009 @ 7:44am | Report comment
The buzz is good, Stillmissit. Not sure what channels it will be on – RTE (Ireland) and BBC will show it. After that, who knows?
NZ v France will more than likely be on ESPN or Setanta. If it’s ESPN then it will be limited to UK & Ireland. (TF1 or Canal+ showing it in France presumably).
I have my ticket booked for Croke Park. It’s an early enough kick-off, but lights will probably be on anyway. We have had endless rain and floods for the last three weeks, but so far the pitch has held up. If it gets down and dirty, I’m sure the Boks won’t mind and Ireland played in miserable wet weather last weekend so they’ll be used to it.
Wind will be a big factor if it gets up and inside a big stadium could play havoc for both teams. Sexton and Steyn will be on a level playing pitch from that point of view – since it will be first time for both of them.
As far as I know, the game is a sell out, but the uncovered stand may put off a few punters if it pours down.
Jean de Villiers has been called into the squad by PdV so that should make things more interesting in the backline. there’ll be a little niggle between O’Driscoll and Fourie for his tackle, and with JdV for BOD leaving him standing as he sped past him for a try in the Leinster/Munster match.
The front row match-up should be good as well. Smit is being talked about as taking the 2 jersey with Beast and Ulster’s Botha either side of him. Broussouw is going to be a big danger for Ireland, and Wallace is going to have to be on his best to compete. Ferris didn’t get a chance to strut his stuff in the Lions test, so we’ll see how he does.
F de Preez is also a huge danger, and keeping him quiet is going to be a real test for Ferris and the other backrowers.
Wallace at 12 is still a worry for me – he seems too fragile at times. And Kidney has put two specialist backs – Stringer and O’Gara on the bench, but you can understand why – in case Sexton has a case of the jitters from the occasion.
Bowe is in fine try-scoring form and will be a real threat alongside Kearney and O’Driscoll – this is where Ireland have the edge on the Boks. Kirchner – who played well in his last match – but was tortured in the 3rd Lions test is going to be tested. It’ll be the accuracy of Kearney’s and Sexton’s kicks that’s going to draw blood here.
It’s a good match up. Ireland have two matches under their belt and should be 10-15% above their form and performance in the Australia match. The Boks will go all out to win this one, no matter the public noises about ‘end of a long season’ tired players’, the same as any other match, etc.
Joh4Canberra said | November 27th 2009 @ 11:29pm | Report comment
When talking about which TV channels will be showing the match don’t forget that the people commenting on this blog come from a variety of countries (probably a majority from Australia) and that not only certain TV channels but live streaming on their websites are not available in certain parts of the world. Perhaps we could get a bit of a thread going on The Roar here for people to share their knowledge of TV rugby coverage in different parts of the world. I’m from Australia, currently living in the UK but have also lived in Germany and spent quite a bit of time in other countries too (Austria, Switzerland, France) so I can certainly share what I know about rugby on TV in those places if anyone is interested.
Accessing the match via the BBC or S4C websites as was suggested only works if you’re in the UK. You can’t for example access matches on the BBC or S4C websites from Australia. But there are other ways. One is streaming via a site such as justin[dot]tv or myp2p[dot]eu (which don’t always work as sometimes the streamers get shut down by the broadcast rights holder). Another way is via a program called J@ck TV. This won’t enable you to watch every match. But it will allow you to watch live free to air UK TV no matter where you are in the world. So any rugby that the BBC or S4C is showing should be available if you have this program installed on your computer even if you’re outside of the UK (and can’t therefore watch them via the BBC or S4C websites). If you’re outside of the UK then strictly speaking it’s no more legal than going to a streaming site (you’re still breaching copyright since the copyright for broadcasting sporting events is divided up territorially and the BBC only has the broadcast rights for the UK). J@ck TV won’t give you access to UK subscription channels such as Sky Sports or ESPN (which show a lot of rugby). But like I said it will give you access to the BBC (and theoretically S4C but when I downloaded it I couldn’t get S4C to work) which is useful for people outside of the UK wanting to watch these matches. So anyone in Australia, NZ, South Africa, France etc wanting to watch the Ireland vs South Africa or Wales vs Australia matches live should be able to watch the BBC coverage of these matches using J@ck TV (Ire v RSA is on BBC 1 at 1430 GMT, Wal v Aus is on BBC 2 at 1715 GMT). It won’t help for the France vs NZ match since this is on ESPN in the UK an that is not a free channel.
Other points:
Yes, as Chris said, the reason why Fox Sports didn’t show England vs NZ in Australia was because Setanta has the broadcast rights in Australia for all of England’s home autumn internationals except England vs Australia. But Fox sports does have the rights for France vs NZ so if you have Foxtel or Austar (or Optus vision with Fox Sports) you can watch this match. For those without access to Fox sports then the only way to watch the match in Australia would be via internet streaming (which is not strictly legal). If you do go the streaming route it can be a bit of a lottery where the commentary comes from. It depends on where the person captures the broadcast for streaming. You’ll probably get the French TV commentary in French. Anyway if you want to go this route try myp2p[dot]eu or justin[dot]tv.
stuff happens said | November 28th 2009 @ 11:01am | Report comment
Many thanks Joh4 very useful info. I wish I’d known when I was in Germany during the TN.
Here in Australia we have the usual lottery of trying to access the 6N every year. It’s extraordinary that we don’t have regular TV coverage of one of the game’s best tournaments.There’s a rumour that SBS are interested but I’ll believe that when I see it. Last year it was Setanta for which of course we have to pay so your info could be good value.
Joh4Canberra said | November 30th 2009 @ 8:02am | Report comment
All of the Six Nations is on the BBC in the UK. So installing J@ck TV would be one way to watch the 6N in Australia via the internet. Of course this would be in breach of copyright but I’m not responsible for what others do with this information
Watching rugby on TV in Germany is not easy and you may need to resort to internet streaming (which itself is not always reliable). The German sports channel DSF (Deutsches Sportfernsehen) used to show the Tri-Nations (with commentary in German) but they haven’t done so for a couple of years now and it doesn’t look like they intend to pick up the rights again. When I was living in Germany I would sometimes watch Tri-Nations rugby at home on DSF but at other times I would go to the local Irish Pub to watch it on Sky Sports (UK). Irish Pubs are generally your best bet for watching rugby in Germany (and a lot of Europe). A lot of Irish pubs in Germany have access to Irish or British satellite TV ad can show rugby that way.
There are, however, a couple of problems when it comes to watching rugby at an Irish pub in Germany even if they have a Sky (UK/Ireland) subscription:
While he wouldn’t open up the pub early, because the publican and I were on quite friendly terms he would sometimes let me in to the closed pub just to watch the rugby.
(1) Time zone: Although South African games are not a problem (South African time is the same time zone as German summer/daylight saving time) games being played in NZ and Australia can present a problem as a lot of pubs won’t open early enough for these games. A NZ night game kicks off at 9.35am German Summer time (too early for most pubs) and an Australian night game at 12 noon (which is probably opening time for most but not all pubs). It helps to be on friendly terms with the publican
(2) Most pubs only have the ability to show one channel at a time and sometimes you’ll get a large crowd wanting to watch something else (typically soccer) at the time of a rugby match. If there are more of them than people wanting to watch rugby (as invariably there are) then inevitably the rugby doesn’t get shown. This used to frustrate me no end — especially since the Irish pub was the only place to watch rugby (since this involved having access to satellite TV from the UK/Ireland) and there were any number of ordinary German pubs they could go to watch soccer (since you could also watch this on German Pay TV available in most ordinary German pubs).
If you live in a part of Germany quite close to France (as I did) then a lot of people have access to some of the French free to air channels including France 2 which is good for the 6 nations and for France’s home November internationals. But this won’t help you watch any of the Tri-Nations since this is not shown on free to air television in France but on the subscription channel Canal+. And if you’re not anywhere close to France then this option won’t help you.
stillmissit said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:24am | Report comment
I am very excited about this game with Wales. Deans evidently told the players after the Scotland match that they ‘Owned’ a part of that history and it sunk in to those who know what history is.
Still I don’t feel too bad about the tour for some reason. Hope springs eternal in a mind that was almost destroyed after the ‘White Flag of Welllington’.
Who Needs Melon said | November 26th 2009 @ 11:41am | Report comment
Re “very excited about this game”: Don’t do it to yourself man!
Expect the worst – say a 25 point drubbing or losing after the buzzer after leading 20-3 at half time. I’m not saying that’s my prediction for the match – just that if I can convince myself not to expect a decent performance, I won’t be disappointed.
stillmissit said | November 26th 2009 @ 1:02pm | Report comment
I am with you WNM but I bottomed out after the Wellington fiasco and now it is just a game of rugby and I am looking forward to it. Do I expect us to win? well who the hell could tell with this team. Still as a game it offers a bit, Wales looking good and the Wallabies looking crap, Giteau all over the place like a mad womans s*** and the pack blowing warm to cool to downright frozen.
Still a supporter and always will be but the ‘Wellington White Flag’ sent my expectations underground. I dont care how poor our team is as long as they fight if they dont I lose it.
My prediction is Wallabies to come out in a blinding, white hot blast, get far ahead and then sit on their collective asses and just lose or maybe just win. We wont know any more about them and their development at the end of this game.
Have to wait till next year.
MarkR said | November 26th 2009 @ 11:25am | Report comment
So what’s the score so far ? My assumption is if we include Scotland/Italy we need to include Argentina.
NH – 4W, 1D, (Engl/Arg, Fra/RSA, Scot/Aus, Wales/Arg)
SH – 5W, 1D
Pretty flipping close & nothing near the whitewash I was expecting (although if you take Arg out is 5W to 2W with 1D)
pothale said | November 26th 2009 @ 4:51pm | Report comment
Using the top 10/12 makes sense since all the teams were playing.
NH
England, Ireland, France, Wales, Italy, Scotland
SH
South Africa, Samoa, Fiji, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina
Taking account of all matches played so far:
England 3W 3L (inc clubs)
Ireland 1D 1W
France 2W
Scotland 2W
Wales 2W 2L (inc clubs)
Italy 2L
Samoa 2L
Fiji 2L
Australia 3W 1D 1L (inc clubs)
South Africa 1W 3L (inc clubs)
New Zealand 3W
Argentina 2L
SH = 7W 1D 10L
NH = 10W 1D 7L
Parisien said | November 27th 2009 @ 1:57am | Report comment
I prefer east/west of the Greenwich meridien myself; my favourite teams are all to the east! (between 5 and 180 degrees).
pothale said | November 27th 2009 @ 5:20am | Report comment
Like Romania and Japan.
Parisien said | November 28th 2009 @ 6:42am | Report comment
And lets not forget Georgia! And you Westerners can get to claim Samoa.
Rusty said | November 27th 2009 @ 7:14am | Report comment
I know you are having fun with the ledger but to count the midweek games as they arent tests seems far fetched. Besides everyone knowns Saracens were SA E (Expats)
pothale said | November 28th 2009 @ 1:07am | Report comment
Ok then
SH = 5W 1D 8L
NH = 8W 1D 5L
Though interestingly in media – journos and players are talking about SA have only won one game from four so far on tour.
stuff happens said | November 26th 2009 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
Thanks Pothale & a great weekend of rugby ahead.France have been the most interesting team this Autumn so far.The way they tore into the ‘Boks forwards was very impressive.I think the French are back and we should have a great game in Marseilles.
It’s a feature of pro rugby that all teams have injuries so it’s pointless banging on about them but the ‘Boks really missed Juan Smith and to a lesser extent Pierre Spies.Kankowski is not a wet pitch player.I also have the impression that du Preez, far & away the best halfback, is carrying a shoulder injury. However if the ‘Boks come out to play, which I suspect they will, the Irish pack will have to play out of their skins to beat them. Matfield & Botha are still the best in most games. Good luck to Sexton, a real talent, but watch Morne Steyn.His improvement over the last two seasons has been amazing. Mind you he’s playing with the best team.
Wales look in reasonable shape to me; getting better again, but they failed to score a try against the All Blacks in the first half when they were at least as good,and that’s their problem. But they have good players in all the key positions and Gatland would be relieved that Hook seems a good alternative for Byrne.Australia as a test side have been poor but may cut loose in their last test before hitting the beach back home.
Enjoy!
Tragic said | November 26th 2009 @ 4:53pm | Report comment
predictions:
Aus 26 Wales 16
RSA 15 Eire 12
NZ 18 Fra 15
Aus to have aggressive defence and forward play (for a change) which will be the difference against an enterprising welsh team. Desperation should also be a factor for aus with a sh!tload riding on this one- they wont underestimate the welsh either.
Low scoring encounters for the other two. Rsa have developed a habit of winning the ones that count (aus a habit of losing them), and Nz will uphold a clean scoresheet (just) against a brooding french team with maybe a little too much self-belief. There will be sentries on the lookout for an ambush…
is it going to be possible to watch all games live without crossovers??
Chris said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:32am | Report comment
My predictions: Wales 24 to 10, South Africa 19 to 16, New Zealand 20 to 19.
There is simply no argument that could support us beating Wales. They beat us last time we played, they are the money favorites, they are at home, they won last week.
Tragic said | November 27th 2009 @ 4:17pm | Report comment
Correct. It looks like the Wallabies have odds stacked against them. However, even considering those factors that you listed I don’t think that there’s much separating the two teams in calibre and ability, and this should mean it comes down to who wants it more and the bounce of the ball on the day. I think Australia are due for a bit of luck and I would say they are more in need of a victory than Wales.
The crowd will be a massive factor, agreed on that one.
Photon said | November 26th 2009 @ 7:10pm | Report comment
Well all things aside, it’s Thursday and time nail your colours to the mast.
I’m backing tin the order of play
Boks by 6 (Ons weet julle gaan dit doen!!)
Wallabies by 5 (Please God, let Giteau get his sh it together)
Blacks by 8 (Dan is the Man)
Enjoy the rugga Pothale, wish I could be there, if it’s anything like Loftus was, should be a cracker!!
Knives Out said | November 26th 2009 @ 11:30pm | Report comment
Ireland by 5
Wales by 6
NZ by 9
Tock said | November 26th 2009 @ 7:58pm | Report comment
I’m looking forward to the welsh game for the simple reason it will give clearer picture of Aust performance on this tour. Its hard to judge if the Irish were off on the night or if scotland are a better team than given credt for and England just dont seem to count any more.
Unfortunately i wont get a chance to watch the other games due to a pathological desire not to enhance the wealth of Murdoch (its a religous thing).
I think its always exciting when teams give a young player an opportunity and I dont think Ireland will lose anything by ensuring there is a capable backup to O’ Gara.
I havnt seen anything of the Boks games, have they bundied off for the season?
MM said | November 27th 2009 @ 6:52am | Report comment
Tock – I really don’t think this year-end “have to” for the southern hemisphere giants is truly representative.
Maybe from the N hemisphere side – that’s not representative in toto. Let’s face facts, the S.H. teams have done their thing during the year and don’t have a thing to gain out of this rediculous & last minute run – for what?
Certainly there’s a lot of hype about it, this and that in the media plus the fact that for e.g. the S.A. coach strongly appears to be serious which I would hazard a guess as being politically based only – I hate using the rather stale, coined phrase – that there is truth to it is very real though.
In my humble opinion, it is another arena where the Wallabies can gain out of testing performances, the All Blacks being as unpredictable as the French (out of this particular season), and the Boks only fulfilling a duty with long teeth but seriously little motivation – they’ve proved who they are albeit for the past season this year, what to they have to waste their energy for? Pretty much the same can be said for the Wallabies and All Blacks in terms of what their strategies and aims are for the next critical round. Absolutely no disrespect to the Northern Hemisphere who are not to be under-estimated, it would require insight into the minds of the S.H. giants for true answers which we cannot.
Look at it in perspective – perhaps I’m missing something – i.e., the public deserve a committed and great performance – that does not mean it is necessarily the feelings of the all the players.
Pothale always has wisdom, to my mind anyway – this article of his demonstrated it thoroughly.
The Wallabies have taken their punches – historically though they have proven to virtually come back from perceived demise to a fearless power-pack. Similar can be said of the Boks when times are dubious as is for the Boks.
The Boks need to get rid of flaming Adi Jacobs at least. Have doubts about them defeating the Irish the way they feel currently albeit the media aren’t a great means to always gauge by. So yes – to another of your questions, seems like the Boks have bundied off for the rest of the season.
Kevin,Meath said | November 28th 2009 @ 6:35am | Report comment
Tock, understand the desire not to contribute Murdoch’s wealth so will not get sky myself, so watch all the H cup on myp2p.eu. You should be able to get most there, quality varies from excellent to mediocre depends on your and their broadband etc . Other posters suggest alternatives on this post.
Not sure who is going to win this weekend could be a NH clean sweep, could be a SH one. Is it a sign of how of change that 3 best in NH play 3 best in SH and results are very much up for debate. would that have been the case 2 years ago ?
and I do think SH is stronger than NH but i think gap has closed.
westy said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:07pm | Report comment
Wallabies 20 to 12 please play properly. Do not just kick the ball .think about it.
westy said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:14pm | Report comment
The AFC forgot to give their award for most corrupt league in Asia . Despite consistent reports they continue to ignore allegations of match fixing in China. It is a league that is floundering when it should be flourishing apart from the moneys invested.
MM said | November 27th 2009 @ 9:59am | Report comment
Hey Westy – what mountain are you flying off mate?
Evidence your statement without promulgating WW 3 PLEASE?????
westy said | November 26th 2009 @ 8:17pm | Report comment
Sorry last post on different topic.
pothale said | November 26th 2009 @ 10:14pm | Report comment
My predictions:
Ireland 21 16 Boks
France 22 19 AB
Wales 14 24 Aus
funmaster said | November 26th 2009 @ 11:11pm | Report comment
My predictions for the weekend.
Wales 20-10 Australia- Mind you wales got some very good moral-boosting wins the last two weeks. Its the start of a new season for them. The players are still fresh and the Millenuim faithfulls will act like a 16th player. Australia on the other hand had some dismal performances of lately. Losing to SCOTLAND!! and drawing to Ire-”almost there but not quite yet”-land. I think its been a far too long season for the boys down under.
Ireland 12-33 South Africa- Sure the boks has lost two to EP sides. And i wont make any excuses, even thou it was a 3rd-string-side (AND YES IT WAS 3RD STRINGERS STRUST Pdivyy TO COME UP WITH AN EXCUSE FOR HIS TEAM SELECTION POLICIES) the boks still should have won. But now the irish are facing a formidable bok side with a few combinations which are outstanding. Steyn/du Preez, Matfield/Botha, Habana/JP, Smith/BJ/Beast, Brussow/Burger, JDV/Fourie. Ha! seems like the irish (especially sexton) should pray to Saint-Patrick. Ireland’s hopes would be for it to rain come saterday. Too bad for them the boks also wears geen.
New Zealand 25-21 France- It will be a tight match, but the kiws are usually flawless this time of the year, plus they’l be looking to settle the score againts France and make it 2-1 for the year. France will ask some meaningfull questions especially at the scrum and at the break-down but will fall short at the end. New Zealand better beat France, no one wants a monkey on their back.
So all in all it looks like Australia will atleast end up 4th(with France and Ireland losing). New Zealand will end up in 1st position not 1st place.South Africa are still the best in the world.
Cos we all know the IRB rankings are just a buncha mumbo-jumbo anyways.
pothale said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:04am | Report comment
That’s a big margin call – Ireland 12-33 South Africa, funmaster.
Do you think Ireland will be that bad, or SA that good?
Chris said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:38am | Report comment
Just did the maths.
If Australia, Ireland and France all lose (which seems probable) then the rankings will be NZ, SA, France, Ireland, Wales, Australia, England, Argentina, Scotland.
If Australia, Ireland and France all win (very unlikely) then the rankings will be NZ, SA, Australia, France, Ireland, England, Wales, Argentina, Scotland.
Photon said | November 27th 2009 @ 12:08am | Report comment
15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
pothale said | November 27th 2009 @ 5:26am | Report comment
So PdV has got practically all of the first team in place for this one. He is taking it seriously.
It’s a tough ask for Ireland. Leamy is gone from the bench as well with second-capper Sean O’Brien in his place. Himself, Healy and Sexton couldn’t have a better baptism of fire for their first real test. (Apologies to Oz and Fiji).
A big test for Kidney – has he got the players to perform? If they can’t he’s got work to do if he wants to compete for the World Cup, and the larder is kinda bare for any better replacements at the moment, with the exception of the injured Luke Fitzgerald.
Rusty said | November 27th 2009 @ 7:33am | Report comment
A very very solid looking team, bar JdV starting probably the strongest we could put out at this point. I like the fact Potgieter and Deysel are on the bench although they both play the blind side. Danie at 8 is not the most dynamic as I firmly believe him to be a lock but he does provide some grunt for the setpiece and go forward. Another plus in that instance is the Bulls combinations, 4,5, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14,15. The frontrow is the Sharks circa 2007 and Im sure will fare pretty well given BJ Botha with Bakkies behind him. It will be interesting so see if Bakkies will now lift his game in the rucks given he wont need to put as much effort through the setpiece as he probably has to with Smit at TH.
Prior to this selection I would have had Ireland as slight favourites but now I am going Boks by 8…actually to be safe Im going with … the weather by 15
Photon said | November 27th 2009 @ 12:12am | Report comment
Persoally I’d have started De Villiers and had Kanko on the bench,is a good side otherwise
MM said | November 27th 2009 @ 6:57am | Report comment
Too true!
Parisien said | November 27th 2009 @ 2:21am | Report comment
Australia by 5,
South Africa by 9,
France by 4
Knives Out said | November 29th 2009 @ 9:42pm | Report comment
Should have taken those bets all the way to le bookmaker, Parisien.
Who Needs Melon said | November 27th 2009 @ 6:29am | Report comment
My (metaphorical) money is on a NH trifecta. Wales by 10 or so. Others by not so much.
Rusty said | November 27th 2009 @ 7:16am | Report comment
that is an interesting idea… nothing like hedging ones emotions with a little income!
Who Needs Melon said | November 29th 2009 @ 10:19am | Report comment
Mmm… what flavour was that pie?
This is why I only bet with metaphorical money.
pothale said | November 27th 2009 @ 6:36am | Report comment
A trifecta, no less. Ooh – showing off doesn’t mean your money won’t be taken.
The chances of a 3-0 NH win has to be long odds. Hmmm, now that you say it – must go and investigate.
Chris said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:43am | Report comment
According to TAB Sportsbet in NSW a France, Ireland and Wales trifecta is running at $9.76. NZ, Australia and SA is at $4.98.
sheek said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:18am | Report comment
Just a general observation, especially for those banging on about rugby union’s international reach.
Having over 100 countries playing the game is good for quantity, but what about quality?
The Wallabies are the 3rd best rugby union country in the world?
The Springboks are the 2nd best rugby union country in the world??
The All Blacks are the best rugby union country in the world???
If these are the 3 best rugby union playing countries in the world, then it’s an indictment on the talent of all the countries below them. And we should somehow be proud of this? Clearly, this is not a vintage era for rugby union.
Us rugger buggers turn our noses at rugby league, with their ‘only’ 3 genuine international teams. Yet that may be so, & while direct comparisons are difficult, the quality of RL’s Kangaroos, Lions & Kiwis, is not that far adrift of the ABs, Boks & Wallabies.
So while RL might only have 3 international teams of any consequence, they are more or less on a par with RU’s top 3 teams. If you only have 3 decent international teams, you might as well go for quality!
The IRB should stop getting carried away with the numbers game, & start building some depth into the code. But I guess deep down they’re worried that if they started helping the minor RU nations too much, countries like Georgia & China might end being the best in another 20 years!!!
Rusty said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:29am | Report comment
General and random Sheek – in League there is little chance of 6 in the world beating one of the top 3. Last weekend saw 9 beat 3 and this weekend will probably deliver more of the same. I think there are genuinely 6 closely competitive countries at this very moment, New Zealand, South Africa, France, Ireland, Wales and Australia. Chuck in Argentina and England when they have all their personnel. I also think its the responsibility of the tier 1 nations to develop thier own quality and the IRB’s to a) get more people playing globally and b) assist those below tier 1 to raise the quality and number of players
ohtani's jacket said | November 27th 2009 @ 9:41am | Report comment
sheek, banging on about rugby league has become a new hobby horse of yours. It hasn’t been a great year for rugby, but if league’s the alternative we might as well watch something else.
Parisien said | November 28th 2009 @ 6:48am | Report comment
Go Georgia! They have a strong forward tradition producing good packs, and produced the mighty Yachvili brothers. I thought they did alright in the last RWC up against the more fancied teams…
Tock said | November 27th 2009 @ 8:30am | Report comment
Pothale – Sorry to say this but I think if SA turn up with their Agrade game Ireland will struggle to get close. But it appears more likely that they will go through the motions so it wont surprise if Ireland win. Which I know Is fence sitting and leaves me in the position that I cant be wrong. I dare say their may be some interesting wagers to be had this weekend.
France and all blacks should be sensational. I thought the French were ripped off in NZ and Aus by poor ref earlier in the year, but as i said in other post good sides dont whinge they adapt. All factors point to French being really up for this one and ABs all ways turn up. Should be a cracker of a game France by 12.
stuff happens said | November 27th 2009 @ 9:08am | Report comment
Boks by 10,Wales by 5, France by 6
Interesting that Smit is at 2 and du Plessis on the bench. Are the ‘Boks carrying their captain? Is he that important to them ?
Rusty said | November 27th 2009 @ 9:16am | Report comment
I think they have after the increasing scrum debacle gone for the best scrumming unit available. Which is Smit back at hooker and a specialist tighthead. Bismark is better around the park but Smit is the captain and beleived to be a better scrummaging hooker anyways. So in a nutshell – they lose a bit in the loose but gain alot in the tight while keeping the cool captaincy of Smit on the field.
pothale said | November 27th 2009 @ 9:20am | Report comment
Stuff – see second half of first Lions test for the answer to that one. Yes.
van der Merwe said | November 27th 2009 @ 9:23am | Report comment
Smit’s selection in du Plessis’ stead comes as a result of the way the scrum functioned against Italy when he shifted to hooker.
Knives Out said | November 27th 2009 @ 11:45pm | Report comment
One thing that has gone largely unnoticed is the fact that the SA replacements arrived at roughly the same time that Ghiraldini and Castrogiovanni were taken off for Italy.
van der Merwe said | November 28th 2009 @ 6:39am | Report comment
Castrogiovanni was certainly on the field. Did you not catch the Beast bellowing hysterically at him after one particular scrum?
Knives Out said | November 28th 2009 @ 7:01am | Report comment
For some bizarre reason I skipped the glorious Italy v SA match. I certainly hope you’re not suggesting that Mtawarira had the edge over Castrogiovanni.
http://www.scrum.com/southafricatour/rugby/match/87469.html
Blood sub?
van der Merwe said | November 28th 2009 @ 9:02am | Report comment
It looked like a permanent Substitution. Perhaps he was playing half-crocked in his second bout?
Nelson said | November 28th 2009 @ 2:49am | Report comment
i think smit will go fine at hooker but would be intersted to hear thoughts on bj botha. he used to be highly rated by some but i actually cant remebmer him actually starting a major test in his s14 days and no idea how well he has been playing of late.
on the irb rankings debtate i dont now what to make of it but will add this. sooner or later france is going to throw together an unstoppable team. they have the best domestic league, the most money, enough players and a complete way of playing. whether it will be this generation i do not know but i guess we will know more after this weekend
Knives Out said | November 28th 2009 @ 4:28am | Report comment
I don’t know why John Smit has so often been identified as the problem. The SA scrum was only mediocre prior to his transformation to prop and in many games Smit has held his own. For me the real problem is Mtawarira, who truly is a very poor prop. It was bizarre that his illegal scrummaging during the Lions first test was applauded when all it did was highlight his inability to scrummage accurately. It is no coincidence that he was stuffed on the European tour last season, during the 2nd and 3rd Lions tests and then during the 3N. He is the weak link but luckily for him John Hayes is not the man to expose his flaws.
Regarding the scrummage I would expect there to be a lot of penalties, and from both sides. None of Healy, Hayes, Mtawarira or Botha are technical greats and Botha especially is renowned (alongside CJ van der Linde) for getting on the wrong side of referees. However, what will be in his favour is the fact that he has competed against the Munster and Leinster front rows, and is in good form (as is his fellow Ulster prop, Tom Court). Regardless, where SA might experience a problem is in the ruck contest and general play. As far as I recall one of the reasons Smit was moved to prop was the fact that he offers very little dynamism compared to the various current test hookers: Servat, Szarzewski, Polota-Nau, Hore, Flannery, Rees etc. He is more of a trier than a doer which means that SA will have one less ball carrier in a pack that is already shorn of Pierre Spies. Strauss and Du Plessis are more than capable runners and Du Plessis is wonderful at contesting the ruck. Will Botha offer any of this? I would suggest that he will not.
As much as Smit is durable and committed, SA will not beat Ireland with a front row that reeks of damage limitation. Brussow will have to work twice as hard with no Bismarck du Plessis and Juan Smith and it is a big ask to pitch Danie Rossouw into the 8 jersey on such short notice. SA may well go on to strangle the life out of the game but I have a suspicion that Ireland will be too clever and too inventive on the day.
Knives Out said | November 28th 2009 @ 9:22am | Report comment
‘It looked like a permanent Substitution. Perhaps he was playing half-crocked in his second bout?’
Could well be. It’s bonkers that some nations objected to the 3 front row replacement ruling.
pothale said | November 28th 2009 @ 10:01am | Report comment
Ryan Jones out of Welsh side is not good news for the team, and it hands the odds to Australia who should have a much easier match with a few of the Welsh front-line players not on the pitch. This will probably balance things up and give the Aussies the chance of another win on their Grand Slam tour, and probably allow them to cling onto third spot in the IRB rankings.
Crisis, what crisis?
stuff happens said | November 28th 2009 @ 11:02am | Report comment
Pothale do you know anything about Dan Lydiate who’s replacing RJ?
Photon said | November 28th 2009 @ 10:35am | Report comment
Knives
In high pressure matches like saturday boring and disciplined(by disciplined I mean each player sticking to the plan) will usually beat clever and inventive, the Germans have shown it time and again for years on the soccer field, and South Africa and England have done likewise on the rugby field. It’s rare that you win these type of games by running the opposition of the park, it’s the very reason why so few triesI in rugby, and goals in Football are scored at final time in world cups.
The Irish have shown during the Six Nations that they know how to win slum it, it’s just that I think the Boks have been doing this for years first of all, and the side that they have picked for Saturday is far better equipped to slum it than the one from the French game. The French where good in that game, but I honestly feel that but for the selection of Jacobs and Steyns moronic trip of the Heymanns I think it was, we would have still won that match.
The Bok game is built around a solid defence and deadly kickers, sides keep using ADs channel to gain momentum or break the line, as the French centre did in that test. I think with Olivier there it will be tougher to do. Oh and the reason I think it was less brutally exposed in the Lions serious and Tri Nations is because of one man Juan Smith, the man is phenomenal, whenever someone needs to be there in cover he’s been there, he’s been the glue that has held the bok loose trio together for years, and is one of the most underrated 7 flanks in world rugby.
I know you’re probably going to accuse me of ” not really making any sustainable points” but hey atleast I tried.
stuff happens said | November 28th 2009 @ 11:43am | Report comment
Photon, entirely agree about Juan Smith a fantastic player; one of the greatest assets for the Springboks.
Knives Out said | November 28th 2009 @ 9:40pm | Report comment
No, you’ve made some salient points that I agree with, Photon. The only thing I disagree with is that Ireland won’t be able to unlock the SA shackles. I also disagree that a different selection would have beaten France, but that is irrelevant today, I suppose.
I did note in my brief analysis that Smith is a huge loss, which is one of the reasons why I think SA will struggle. He adds a lot to the breakdown (and the lineout), and so does Du Plessis. They’re both absent and so a lot of onus will be on Burger and Brussow. Brussow, as we saw in the France game, is supremely talented at stealing ball – like a younger George Smith, but I do not see Burger or Rossouw as the men to adequately support him. A back row of Brussow – Burger – Rossouw seems to lack verve and wit, IMO. France beat SA because SA couldn’t get near them physically, and yet PdV has selected a forward pack to try and do the exact same thing. There’s only so many times one can put all his eggs in the same basket. Thus if the packs cancel each other out then the winning team must have the best backline which, IMO, is definitely Ireland. The only Irish selection I take issue with is Wallace, and perhaps Earls, but O’Driscoll, Kearney and Bowe are superb players.
pothale said | November 28th 2009 @ 11:29am | Report comment
Not really Stuff. He plays for Dragons as flanker/nackrower. He was out of the game for a good while with a neck injury and only got back last season. He’s young enough and light enough on his feet for a 6′4″ guy. Gatland brought him on for his first cap in the Argentina game, but only in the second half when they had enough points on the board. Very inexperienced but will benefit from having Williams and Powell on board. Powell is good in the eight shirt as a replacement for Jones, and Lydiate in the 6 shirt will have his hands full keeping an eye on Genia and Hynes??
Australia have enough poke in the scrum, even if your locks are being a bit powder puff. Charteris and Wyn-Jones will give you headaches in the lineout though.
The Australian backline is better, and if Cooper is given his head as playmaker – as the reports suggest – then this is a match where Australia could start to make hay, I think.
One player to keep an eye on is Shane Williams – he may be regathering his form. If he gets a free run with the ball, he could start striking again – lovely runner to watch.
I’m hoping Australia win though. Good to keep the Welsh boyos in place for the 6 Nations, and give them something more to cry about in their beer – hope you put a few on them.
stuff happens said | November 28th 2009 @ 11:54am | Report comment
Many thanks Pothale.
FYI I’m Welsh by birth and these matches are the only time I can’t support Australia. As soon as I see those red shirts run on to Cardiff Arms Park (I refuse to call it Millenium twaddle) and the sound of the National anthem – I’m gone. Anyway, I have no choice, my Mother would never forgive me.
As to the match, I’m with Warren Gatland when he says that Wales simply have to win games like these if they are to make any progress.Next year they play two tests in NZ as part of their build up to the RWC and that will be a real challenge for them.
Photon said | November 29th 2009 @ 5:00am | Report comment
Congratulations to the Irish, they where the better side on the day, felt the Boks let themselves down by not taking the chances that came their way, on the balance of play the result was a fair one. Agree with what one of our commentatrors here said in that the Boks are a little presdictable now and will have to develop some backline play
Campbell Watts said | November 29th 2009 @ 7:50am | Report comment
Oh my GOD!!!!
Did you just see the All Black absolutly DEMOLISH the french??
5 tries to zip! The most polished perfomance of the northern hemisphere tests!
2 northern hemi tours and not a single try scored against them!
Great game of running rugby too – what a spectical!
Congrats to the AB’s!!!
MarkR said | November 30th 2009 @ 8:19am | Report comment
Campbell, Conrad Smith is now officailly Mr Invisible, that is the other teams don’t seem to see him. Jane & Sivi showed what quick ball can do & Thorn was once again outstanding. That was a great game to watch.
Campbell Watts said | November 30th 2009 @ 4:48pm | Report comment
Conrad was my MOTM.
His defensive decisions were impecable, like you say – he flys well under the redar on most teams threat sheet.
Go son!
MarkR said | November 30th 2009 @ 5:29pm | Report comment
Cambell, can’t disagree although Carter would pip him for MOTM, but the French came to play which allowed both backlines to play, & they both looked good. My hearth was in my mouth for the first 50 or so as the French breakouts were just made out of nothing sometimes.
MarkR said | November 30th 2009 @ 5:20pm | Report comment
Yeah, Jane’s been interesting to watch, guy I know played with him & commented that he was extremely difficult to put down & very deceptive. I like the way he thinks & sets up the tries. His try could’ve been scored by 2 or 3 ABs with only 1 Frenchman in a position to get to the ball. It’s nice to finish on a high note after going down 3-0 to the Boks !
Parisien said | November 29th 2009 @ 10:56am | Report comment
Well after this weekend, I think the Kiwis will be feeling relieved and even slightly optimistic, ditto the Irish and the Australians. The French are confused, and will shrug it off as always, the Welsh will be peeved, the South Africans and English ever so slightly anxious, and the Scots and Italians resigned to whatever fate holds for them.
MarkR said | November 30th 2009 @ 8:17am | Report comment
Parisien – slightly optimisitc ? I think VERY optimistic, they lost 1 game to the French & 3 to SA. SA they won’t play such stupid game plans again. The new guys have proven their worth although 10 is still a concern.