Growing pains to hit clubs as AFL expands

 

By , 15 Dec 2009 Sam Lienert is a Roar Pro

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Any AFL club on the slide in 2010 can expect the rebound to be painfully slow. The league’s main levers to help strugglers – the salary cap and the draft – will be blunted as new clubs Gold Coast and Western Sydney make their entrance.

With the bulk of early national draft picks to go to Gold Coast in November 2010 and Western Sydney a year later, a youth-led rebuild will be a severely compromised strategy.

Similarly, underperforming clubs’ ability to use salary cap space to lure established players from stronger rivals will decrease.

The two new clubs will hold all the cards in that respect, with each having $1 million more than anyone else to pay players in their inaugural year.

It is not just clubs near the bottom of the ladder, or headed that way, that have cause for concern.

In each of the next three post-seasons, one of the newcomers will have the AFL-given right to poach uncontracted players from their established rivals, with young stars the obvious targets.

So, how well is each existing club placed to weather the storm?

ADELAIDE
Under Neil Craig, the Crows have never been far from the top of the ladder, reaching finals in each of his five full seasons. But they keep coming up short at the business end, a semi-final loss this season suggesting a lot of work remains for an elusive flag. They have some promising young players, although the loss of one of those, Andy Otten, for all of 2010 with a knee injury will hurt. Of greater concern is that core players Andrew McLeod, Tyson Edwards, Brett Burton and Simon Goodwin are all nearing the end. All have been kept on for next season, which should help Adelaide reach finals again in 2010. But preparing for life beyond that star quartet will be difficult.

BRISBANE
Rather than bulk up on youth, the Lions have recruited with the short term in mind, presumably to make the most of having triple-premiership veterans Simon Black and Luke Power still around to deliver the ball to power forward Jonathan Brown. Recruiting Coleman Medallist Brendan Fevola will make for some formidable scoring power. It will also help the Lions’ position themselves as Queensland’s glamour team ahead of the Gold Coast’s arrival on the scene to split the market. But with Fevola among a host of experienced recruits, it is a risky strategy for a club that made the finals for the first time in five years this season and just scraped through to the second week.

CARLTON
The Blues took a big step in 2009, playing finals for the first time in eight years, but backing it up will be tough. Fevola’s exit leaves a huge hole. They also lost Nick Stevens to an injury-forced retirement. The good news is that their list is very young – even moreso after those departures – and the future looks very bright. Heath Scotland is Carlton’s only player older than 27. Brock McLean, from Melbourne, joins the likes of Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs in a potent, emerging midfield group. The ruck contingent is similarly exciting, with Robert Warnock, prevented by injury from playing in his first year at the Blues in 2009, to complement Matthew Kreuzer and Shaun Hampson. Carlton also have salary cap space to ward off poaching.

COLLINGWOOD
A preliminary final appearance in 2009 suggests the Magpies are in flag contention and so does their recruiting strategy, having given up their first draft pick for experienced ruckman Darren Jolly and their next on midfielder Luke Ball. The question is whether it will be enough to bridge the gap to Geelong, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs. Ball will add useful midfield grunt, but the Magpies’ lack of key forward support for Travis Cloke was shown up in a big preliminary final loss to the Cats. Perhaps Jolly’s arrival will allow ruckman Josh Fraser to spend more time forward as one solution. Their other worry is that their oldest player, key defender Simon Prestigiacomo, remains crucial, but is approaching the end.

ESSENDON
The Bombers face a challenging 2010, having lost a heap of experience in key positions, with Matthew Lloyd, Scott Lucas and Adam McPhee all leaving. They have also lost their most explosive midfielder, Andy Lovett joining St Kilda. Essendon will rely heavily on a promising but inexperienced group of talls in Michael Hurley, Jay Neagle, Scott Gumbleton, Tayte Pears and Cale Hooker. Evergreen defender Dustin Fletcher, the league’s oldest man, can pitch in for at least one more year. At least athletic young ruckman Paddy Ryder should be helped by the return of experienced David Hille from injury. But after scraping into the finals this year, it will be a hard act to follow.

FREMANTLE
The Dockers had the excuse of blooding an enormous amount of youth to explain yet another season nowhere near finals contention in 2009. But that alibi can only last Mark Harvey so long and he will head into 2010 as the coach under most pressure. Fremantle have trumpeted their recruitment of experienced utility McPhee, but adding an older player could be used as another stick to beat them with if they do not win more games. He adds to the Dockers’ status as a home for former Bombers, joining coach Harvey, assistant Dean Wallis and players Dean Solomon and Kepler Bradley. In general, the youth of their list suggests they are well braced for the coming draft drought, but only if the youngsters deliver as hoped.

GEELONG
Two premierships and another grand final in the past three years suggest the Cats do not have too many worries, but the coming year will have its hurdles. Captain Tom Harley, whose leadership has been crucial to their climb to power, has retired, with his captaincy to be missed as much as his reliability and versatility in defence. The loss of young ruckman Shane Mumford is also significant. Key players Darren Milburn, Cameron Mooney and Matthew Scarlett are all among the club’s oldest and the recent success has meant limited chances for youngsters to gain experience. Another issue will be young superstars Gary Ablett and Joel Selwood having their loyalty tested by expected massive offers from the Gold Coast in 2010 and Western Sydney after that.

HAWTHORN
The loss of big man Robert Campbell to injury-induced premature retirement, and fellow ruckman Max Bailey for 2010 with a third major knee injury in his young career are big blows. Premiership fullback Trent Croad’s future also remains clouded, having not played since the 2008 grand final because of a foot injury. On the plus side, they have snared backman Josh Gibson from North Melbourne to help counter Croad’s absence, while ex-Port Adelaide gun Shaun Burgoyne will be a huge midfield asset. The drafting of quick half-forward Rhan Hooper, whose questionable attitude caused Brisbane to cut him, adds to the sense they are loading up for another serious flag tilt. And the overall youth of their list means they should be around the mark for some years yet.

MELBOURNE
The Demons had consecutive years of dismal performances just in time, picking up the top draft pick in 2008 and top two in 2009. If a club performs similarly over the coming two years, their reward will not be nearly so sweet. The man most under pressure is possibly recruiting boss Barry Prendergast, as the club’s future rests heavily on their draft booty of the past two years meeting huge expectations. It will be a slow build for the Demons, but fans should have some excitement watching the youngsters develop and enjoying the flair of indigenous forwards, Liam Jurrah, who made a stunning impression in his debut 2009 season, and Austin Wonaeamirri, who added plenty of spark in 2008, before having this year wiped out by injury.

NORTH MELBOURNE
The Kangaroos have some exciting young players, notably midfielders Jack Ziebell, Liam Anthony and best and fairest Andrew Swallow, and an enviable array of ruck options – Hamish McIntosh, David Hale, Todd Goldstein and the versatile Drew Petrie. But they also have some serious concerns. They were deserted by two players they would have loved to keep, Gibson and the very talented but injury-prone youngster Jesse Smith. They also lost stalwart Adam Simpson to retirement. Adding to the perception that Arden St was not the place most wanted to be – despite a top-class new training facility – their first choice as coach Nathan Buckley preferred a succession plan at Collingwood and another candidate John Longmire chose a similar arrangement at Sydney, leaving former Brisbane enforcer Brad Scott to fill what could be a tough job.

PORT ADELAIDE
Struggles to draw crowds have hit the Power’s finances hard and their inconsistent on-field showings have not helped, with a disturbing drop since they played in a grand final just two years ago. It will be even tougher to regain ground now, having lost a ton of talent and experience, with the retirements of Brendon Lade and Peter Burgoyne and the trading away of Shaun Burgoyne, at the player’s instigation. The coaching set-up has also been transformed. Coach Mark Williams was reappointed, despite murmurings that he had reached his use-by date with the club. But Dean Laidley and Garry Hocking come in as assistants.

RICHMOND
The question that has been hovering over the Tigers like a dark shadow is about to be answered – how can they cope without Richo? Apart from being a standout in a struggling side, star forward Matthew Richardson has also ensured long-suffering fans have at least had something to enjoy. He is far from the only departure, in a huge cleanout that has seen the exit of Kane Johnson, Joel Bowden and Nathan Brown, plus a host of lesser lights. The Tigers turned heavily towards youth with seven national draft picks. But the downside of not having been quite as bad as Melbourne is that they did not get quite the same access to top-end picks. It means new coach Damien Hardwick takes over a team that should gradually improve, but still looks vulnerable in the ruck and key forward departments.

ST KILDA
The Saints are coming off a year which delivered everything but a premiership, and even that was only a few straight kicks away from being realised. But the Saints have set about improving their list further for 2010 to ensure they can overtake Geelong and add to the club’s sole 1966 flag. First, they added speedsters Andrew Lovett, from Essendon, and Brett Peake, from Fremantle, in trades. Then they drafted Jesse Smith, who could be a great pick-up if he can get fit. Their one notable loss was Ball, but they did not seem desperate to keep him, with a deep and talented midfield. With their best players all young enough to remain at their peak for several more seasons, the Saints should enter next year and beyond with every expectation of silverware.

SYDNEY
Having just missed the finals for the first time in seven years, the Swans will be hit as hard as anyone by the changing AFL landscape. They appear to be heading on a downward path at exactly the wrong time. Departing key forwards Barry Hall and Michael O’Loughlin will be missed, although youngster Jesse White has shown great promise and pre-season draft target Daniel Bradshaw will help fill the void. Similarly, Jolly’s exit will be sorely felt, even with the recruitment of other team’s fringe ruckmen Mark Seaby and Shane Mumford. Other premiership players Leo Barry, Jared Crouch and Amon Buchanan have also left, signalling the end of an era, although the positive is the return from Ireland of Tadhg Kennelly. Just as a likely on-field slide is unfortunately timed, the Swans could also feel the crunch off-field as they seek to cement support ahead of Western Sydney’s introduction.

WEST COAST
The Eagles have been in forced rebuilding mode since being rocked by the departures of former captains and premiership stars Chris Judd and Ben Cousins after the 2007 season. But they have tried to make the most of adversity, using the draft picks gained from Judd’s trade and their subsequent ladder slide to recruit a crop of players they hope can deliver their next successful era. The Eagles hierarchy clearly believe they are on the right track, handing coach John Worsfold a new two-year contract late this season. The players backed that up with a fast finish to the year, blowing away suggestions of tanking by winning four of their last five matches, including surprise victories over finals-bound Essendon and the Western Bulldogs. One of the most eye-catching positives was the AFL introduction of super-athletic young ruckman Nic Naitanui, who stamped himself as a future star.

WESTERN BULLDOGS
After two narrow preliminary final losses in two seasons, anything less than a grand final appearance will be hugely disappointing for the Bulldogs next year. Their post-season underlines that ambition. Captain and club games record-holder Brad Johnson will stay on, almost certainly as leader, while fellow veterans Jason Akermanis and Nathan Eagleton have both accepted pay cuts to remain part of what they hope will be a premiership side. The one notable departure is forward Scott Welsh. But in his place, the Bulldogs picked up the recruit who could shape next year’s premiership race as much as any player in the AFL, former Sydney premiership co-captain Barry Hall. If he can keep his temper in check and stay fit, Hall will be the power forward the `Dogs have craved. As with the other league pacesetters, their young stars such as Adam Cooney and Ryan Griffen will be obvious targets for new clubs.

© AAP 2012
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