Resurgent Reds will be good for the Wallabies

 
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By formeropenside, 12 Jan 2010 The Crowd is a Roar Guru

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Queensland's Sean Hardman is tackled during the Super 14 match between the Queensland Reds and the South African Stormers in Brisbane. AAP Image/Dave Hunt.

Queensland's Sean Hardman is tackled during the Super 14 match between the Queensland Reds and the South African Stormers in Brisbane. AAP Image/Dave Hunt.

With a horrible 2009 behind both the Reds – a twelfth placing, the underhand departure of Barnes carefully calculated to inflict maximum damage on Queensland rugby – and also the Wallabies, last in the Tri-Nations and a loss to Scotland in the Grand Sham, 2010 can be hoped for as a year of redemption for both.

While the Reds have been forced to hire ex-Tah McKenzie after the ARU told them not to re-hire Connolly, he is at least a solid coach with an emphasis on forward play that suits Queensland’s traditional strengths.

And, if the last decade has proved anything, it is that when Queensland is strong, the Wallabies are strong.

So how do the Reds line up in 2010, and what is a successful year?

I’d love for the Reds to be finals-bound, but I don’t think it’s too likely.

A solid mid-table finish with wins over traditional bitch the Tahs, and a home win over the expats and mercenaries at the Force would be nice. Beating the star-studded Brumbies, a long time bogey side dating back to S12 days, is unlikely. Hopefully better fitness will have the Reds winning tight game they have been losing for the last several years: too often the Reds have faded in the last 20 (which should be familiar from a Wallabies perspective, too).

In theory, the Reds have a strong backline, but a pack that has let them down.

In practice, I don’t think that assessment is entirely correct, and in 2010 I expect the forwards to step up (and the backs to likely let us down, but we’ll get to that).

Where the Reds fall down a little bit is depth: the first 15 players hold up pretty well, but the bench is problematic in places, and if you throw in injuries, well, it could be grim.

It all starts, of course, with the front row.

The Reds are solid here, despite the ARU-instigated loss of Rodney Blake a season or so back. Greg Holmes and Ben Daley will battle for the loosehead prop spot, with the downside being that the no.2 no.1 usually misses the bench, since a reserve THP is more important.

Holmes looked good back in 06 and 07, but since then has had a succession of knee and shoulder injuries which led to the ignominy of being worked over by Al Baxter last season. If injury-free, a fully fit Holmes could find Wallaby selection, if Benn Robinson picks up an injury or has a spectacular loss of form.

Ben Daley looked the goods last year in a few games, but looks perhaps a little light for a prop at 108kg. Still, he turned in strong performances at scrumtime and around the park, and could take the no.1 jersey from Holmes (or, possibly, Holmes might switch to THP, which is where he broke into the Queensland side originally).

Sean Hardman is a hooker’s hooker: solid in the scrum, pinpoint at lineout time, and limited around the park. He’s not a runner like Moore or a ballplayer like TPN, but pulled off some brutal tackles in the tight in 2009, and recycled possession well when he found himself with the pill.

He’s been around since forever, and has always put pressure on more fancied hookers. He broke an arm in the final minute of Brothers 2009 GF win, but should be fit for Super 14 game 1.

Behind him though are Saia Faingaa and James Hanson. Faingaa had a pile of chances last season, and its probably fair to say took none of them, with his lineout throwing TPN-like at times. Australia U-20 hooker James Hanson, fresh from a stint the NPC, may end up as the no2 no2 by season’s end.

With Alec Evans back as forwards coach however, there will probably be a return to focusing on the core skills of a hooker rather than the ability to play as an extra backrower.

It is generally accepted that the THP and reserve THP are the first and second most important people in the team list. This puts Queensland in an interesting position – there is Laurie Weeks, ex-Sydney Uni and unwanted by NSW (who preferred Jeremy Tilse, and have for some years now).

Weeks was Rookie of the Year in 2009, and was solid in the scrum.

The other contender is Dayna Edwards, who had a great 2008 until crippled by injury, and who also struggled with injury in 2009. Edwards was part of a strong scrum in the opening rounds of 2008, and if he can recover that form, the Queensland scrum will be strong.

Around the park however, Weeks is limited and Edwards more so.

That can be tolerated so long as the scrum is strong. Injury may mean that one or both players are not up to scratch, or will miss games altogether, in which case Jack Kennedy may add to his handful of Super 14 caps.

A smokey for game time at 3 is James Slipper, currently in the Academy, who was an Australian U-20 last year. He may overtake Jack Kennedy in the pecking order.

The second row is another delicatrely balanced position for the Reds to fill, not helped by the ARU refusing MMM a dispensation to play for his beloved Reds in 2010 prior to taking up a Japanese contract. James Horwill showed a welcome return to form on the Wallaby Spring Tour, and that form and more will be needed to lead from the front for the Reds.

His partner will likely be evergreen Van Humphries as lineout general. Van is however, well into his 90′s by now and the problem with getting older is that injuries take a lot longer to fully heal. Its likely Van will probably miss several games with injury, so the backup locks become important.

It might be that Horwill has to bite the bullet and take over calling lineouts, or give the job to Hardman, or perhaps even a backrower.

Unfortunately, those backup locks are not proven. Adam Byrnes was promising last season, but doesn’t look like a future Wallaby at present. Young Rob Simmons (20) has had limited game time. Ezra Taylor might be an option, but he lacks height (although if Dave Dennis can play second row for the Wallabies, perhaps not).

Queensland backrow is a case of what should have been – Mowen, Pocock, and Chapman, with Dick Brown on the bench. Instead, with Croft’s retirement a while back there is All Black Daniel Braid at 7, with Higginbotham the likely 6 and Houston jostling with Ezra Taylor for the 8 spot.

As this is the last year on Braid’s contract, look for new recruit Tomiki and Andrew Shaw to see some game time to properly blood them. Hopefully young Shaw will not be lost to the Melbourne franchise in 2011, as he looked a real talent last year, despite staying in the Academy in 2010.

Higginbotham, Houston and Taylor are all trying to fit into the 6 or 8 positions, with PVT Luafutu not far behind (and Luafutu can also cover 7 in a pinch, which may aid in snagging a bench spot). Higginbotham is a genuine 6 in that he is a 3rd lineout option, strong runner and hard defender.

Taylor is a bit injury prone, but much the same type, save he prefers 8. Either could lose the spot to Leroy Houston, who at his best is a devastating runner. The problem is that his defence is shaky, especially if he has to turn or attempt lateral movement. Also, sometimes he just does not show up.

His best role might be as a bench weapon coming on in the last 20 with fresh legs. Hopefully he can stay fit and focused in 2010. Young Academy backrowers Schatz (an 8) or Ed Quirk (6) may also find themselves with some game time if injuries strike.

The backs however, despite looking good on paper, may be a problem due to injuries, retirements and poaching. Remember that out of last year’s backline, Barnes has defected, McLinden and Fetoai have retired due to neck injuries, Va’aulu has been injured over the offseason and may or may not be fit, and question marks remain on what Quade Cooper will be doing.

Throw in the loss of reserve half McKibbin to NSW, and things look somewhat grim.

The halfback role will be filled by Will Genia, subject to injuries.

After a few years of wrestling with both Nic Berry and Ben Lucas for the spot, Genia is surely an automatic selection this time around, as the incumbent Wallaby half. Usually, Ben Lucas would be the other 9 discussed, but with his ability to play 10 or 12, it might be that the bench spot goes to young Wallaby Kingi, fresh from a cameo or two in last years Super 14.

Kingi forced McKibbin to move south for greater opportunity, and is apparently impressing all with his skill and determination (although, to be fair he is only up against New South Welshmen: refer Berrick Barnes as the NSW strongman winner, with another former Queenslaner Nedolo as the runner up).

Depending on what the ARU decide to allow Quade Cooper to do, it might be that Lucas is the starting 10 (or it might be in any case, with Cooper at 12). Another other option is Academy player Jono Lance, with Anthony Faingaa a last resort.

The last inside back spot to be filled is 12 – and the contenders are Turinui, Cooper, and Anthony Faingaa. Turinui will hopefully be hungry after missing 2009 with injury, and will have used the time off to repair defensive lapses that were apparent in 2008.

While a fine attacking player with a good rugby brain, defence may be an issue. He is probably the best choice for 12, outside Cooper, while putting the 13 into holes.

While Digby Ioane is the current Wallaby outside centre, and was a revelation in the position in 2008, another option is league convert Will Chambers, or even Peter Hynes. Both Va’aulu and Fetoia would have been reserves for the spot, but are not available.

The wings may have Luke Morahan and Peter Hynes as the first choice wingers, but that tends to leave a hole at 15. The answer is probably Chambers to one wing, with Hynes to fullback.

The loss of McLinden to a career-ending neck condition is perhaps the greatest loss to the Reds, Barnes notwithstanding. McLinden was quick, a balanced runner, and starting to look like a potential Wallaby fullback. Lucas or Cooper are other options at 15.

The backline then looks good at first glance, but has little depth to cope with injuries. Rod Davies is speedy but showed little else when turning out for the Reds in 09, and Blair Connor was similarly unimpressive. Both may come good in 2010, as may Aiden Toua, but that’s a gamble rather than a statement of confidence.

What Queensland have to do is play smart rugby, within the bounds of what they can do. Get fit, scrummage effectively, defend.

Rugby is a simple game, as shown by the Queensland teams of the 90s.

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