Which teams will be playing finals football?

Newcastle Jets' Fabio Vignaroli (right) congratulates Jin Hyung Song. July 26, 2009. Sydney FC and the Newcastle Jets drew 1-1. AAP Image/Paul Miller

Only six points cover the bottom six on the A-League table with the finals series fast approaching. With five rounds left, plus three matches left to complete the floating Round 19, which clubs will book their finals place with a top six finish?

With Sydney, Melbourne and Gold Coast three points clear of the rest, and Melbourne and Gold Coast still to complete their Round 19 matches, the trio should be playing finals football, barring complete disaster.

The contenders to join them are:

Wellington Phoenix
The addition of Eugene Dadi helped lift Wellington to a comfortable victory over Brisbane on Saturday, and the Phoenix has three very winnable home fixtures against North Queensland, Adelaide and Central Coast still to come.

Nine points out of these fixtures should be enough for the Phoenix, particularly if they can get a point or two in their journey across Australia to Perth in Round 24 followed by their trip to Melbourne four days later for their Australia Day clash.

Book them into the six.

Newcastle Jets
The Jets may struggle to back up their impressive victory over Melbourne on Wednesday night away to the Gold Coast, but their run home is perhaps the easiest in the competition, despite the fact they only have two home games left.

The Jets, on current form, are more than capable of grabbing points away to Brisbane, North Queensland and Central Coast, with a home game in the final round to Adelaide giving them a great opportunity to cement their finals spot if needed.

Add them to the six.

Perth Glory, Central Coast Mariners and North Queensland Fury
That leaves five teams battling for one spot.

Perth are currently occupying sixth place, a point clear and with a game in hand. They appear the best placed to complete the finals picture with three home games – all three against their rivals for the bottom six places in Wellington, Central Coast and Brisbane.

While their away trips involve visits to Melbourne and Sydney, they are more than capable of grabbing a point or more in their game in hand away to Adelaide.

With a possible ten points there for the taking, Perth are in the box seat.

The home match with Central Coast in Round 25 could be the defining game in the race to the finals, and it’s a crucial away trip for the Mariners who face a difficult trip to Wellington in the final round, while also hosting the in form Newcastle and Gold Coast at home.

The Mariners need a result against Adelaide this Friday night to maintain the pressure on Perth.

North Queensland could be a darkhorse with three of their remaining five games at home, but of those, two are derbies against Brisbane and Gold Coast. Even if they grab maximum points at home, it’ll be difficult to match Perth’s possible ten point haul (remembering the Fury are two behind the Glory) with tough away trips to Melbourne and Wellington.

Expect Perth, therefore, to get the better of Central Coast (particularly if they grab the points at home to the Mariners) for sixth, with North Queensland just behind the pair.

Adelaide and Brisbane

Even if we ignore form and the turmoil the club is in (and that’s no easy task), Brisbane still faces an uphill battle in their remaining rounds, which include home games to the in form Newcaslte and Sydney, an away derby to the Fury and away trips to Adelaide and Perth.

At present, none of those are necessarily winnable.

Adelaide’s season will be defined in their next two home games over the course over five days against Central Coast and Perth.

Maximum points and some goal scoring form are mandatory if finals football is going to be an option. But even then away trips to Melbourne (their hodoo fixture), Wellington and Newcastle will make it difficult for the unsettled Reds to make the six.

Expect the two teams who this time last year were Melbourne’s only threat to fill the bottom two places on the ladder.

The A-League finals will, therefore, be played between: Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Newcastle, Wellington and Perth Glory.

Central Coast, North Queensland, Brisbane and Adelaide will face the indignity of missing out on the finals in a season when the system rewarded mediocrity.

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