Look out Aussies, it’s a Super ambush!

 
Andrew Logan Columnist

By , 18 Feb 2010 Andrew Logan is a Roar Expert

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Australian rugby could find itself with nothing to celebrate this weekend as its Super rugby teams head for a clean sweep of losses heading into Round Two of competition.

With several players either ruled out or under injury clouds, and only the Reds playing at home, it shapes up as a rotten weekend for Aussie rugby fans.

The round 2 draw for 2010 is in fact a carbon copy of Round 13 in the 2008 draw, where the Reds played the Crusaders at home; the Force were away to the Hurricanes; the Waratahs travelled to Capetown to meet the Stormers and the Brumbies fronted up at Loftus to meet the Bulls.

That year, the Brumbies (vs Bulls 17-28), Force (vs Hurricanes 10-21) and Reds (vs Crusaders 21-27) all lost, and only the Waratahs were able to scratch together a draw (vs Stormers 13-13).

Back then, the Brumbies fielded much the same team that they will this weekend. The match was a physical affair and although the Bulls had two players sin binned, they scored three tries to two and ended beating the Brumbies fairly comfortably.

The 2008 Force vs Hurricanes clash was held in dreadful Wellington conditions, and despite the presence of Matt Giteau, the Force couldn’t overcome the 80% possession that the Hurricanes had, nor the 30 solid minutes that the Canes spent inside the Force 22. Defence was a highlight that night for the Force, but they had all their stars on board, and still lost.

The Reds will have been having flashbacks to their 2008 match against the Crusaders all week after their doppelganger loss to the Waratahs last weekend.

Two years ago, they again managed to blow a winning lead against one of the better teams in the comp, when they led the Crusaders by 6 points with 6 minutes to go. Unfortunately Ben Lucas was sent to the bin to join Digby Ioane who was already off, and the 13-man Reds collapsed from there, going down by (you guessed it) 6 points.

In 2008, only the Waratahs managed to not lose, holding on for a draw in wet conditions in Cape Town. Despite having 70-odd percent of the possession, the Tahs could only score one try to the Stormer’s two. The mountain of ball available didn’t help the Waratahs, who only managed to cross in the 69th minute for their only try, with the sideline conversion by Kurtley Beale drawing them level close to full time.

All of this happened two years ago, but the results look to be shaping up much the same.

The Brumbies travel to the Republic with both Rocky Elsom and Matt Giteau coming off injuries, and Giteau still no guarantee to start, or play 80 minutes.

The Bulls have lost Bakkies Botha to injury and Bryan Habana to the Stormers, but still have several gamebreakers in Victor Matfield, Pierre Spies and Fourie du Preez.

Loftus is an awesome venue and the ACT boys can be sure of a loud and aggressive welcome as well as some physical work going in from the Bulls forwards. In the Brumbies favour is the new law interpretation at the breakdown, which will favour their speedy backline and nullify the Bulls pack to some extent.

The Bulls didn’t lose a game at Loftus last year, and belted the Chiefs in South Africa in last year’s final, underlining how hard it is to win games on the road in Africa. The Brumbies will need to be much slicker than they were last week to have a chance.

South Africa might be tough, but for the Force, New Zealand looks like being even tougher. They’ve lost just about every top-line player they have with the exception of James O’Connor and Nathan Sharpe, and are toying with bringing Scott Staniforth back from Japan, so bad are their injury woes.

Andre Pretorius gone for the season; Mark Bartholemuesz 50/50 to play; Richard Brown may require surgery on a shoulder complaint; David Pocock with a finger tendon injury; and Cameron Shepherd with a quad strain.

Bartholemeusz and Shepherd are possibilities, but let’s face it, they aren’t going to turn the match.

John Mitchell is running out of options. Sure, he can move O’Connor to flyhalf, but then what? Keep in mind that the Force is facing a likely Hurricanes backline of Weepu, Nonu, Smith, Gear and Jane, and it looks like a bridge way too far.

The Force will be outgunned in the pack and in the backs, and might be lucky to escape without a cricket score. In 2008, it was only their defence that saved them.

This year they may not even have that.

Australia’s only home team, the Reds, will still be waking up shrieking at the cracks in the ceiling after last weeks train-wreck against the Tahs.

Ewen McKenzie will again have to use his younger brigade, and hope that the likes of Andrew Shaw have learned from their ugly mistakes in crucial situations last week.

Despite the Reds ticker, which made a nice change, it won’t be enough to beat the Crusaders who will match them physically and beat them all ends up in the mind games. In the last 20 minutes, it all comes down to sheer quality, and even without Richie McCaw, the Crusaders still field forwards like Thorn, Read, Waldrom and Ross, backed up by Ellis, Carter and Guildford in a top-notch backline.

All of which leaves? The Waratahs. Long-time Tahs fans will tell you, don’t bet on the Waratahs. If there’s a team that will go out of its way to find a way to break your heart, the Waratahs is that team.

They’ve tried everything to win a comp, but so far haven’t managed it. Sometimes, despite being strongly fancied, they haven’t even managed to make the semis.

Last year, they decided that if they couldn’t win by playing rugby, they’d win by doing just about anything but. Sure we might hate them by the end of the season, but at leats they could flip us the bird as they raised the trophy.

Note to Tahs – if you’re going to distance your fans by playing highly unattractive footy, make sure you win, otherwise you are really up excrement waterway minus a propellant device.

New hope dawned with the signings of Berrick Barnes and Sosene Anesi, but things looked a little shaky in week 1 against a hopeful and full-of-effort Reds outfit.

Barnes kicked some good goals to keep the Tahs in the contest, but did little to set his pace away. Luke Burgess probed well, but his pass still sucks.

Turner and Anesi did some good work on their own, but overall the Waratahs looked flat and rattled, in spite of their last minute escape.

Their biggest problem is that on the road in South Africa is not the place to be trying to find form, particularly when you have left a suspended Wallaby (Dean Mumm) and a starting second rower (Cam Jowitt) behind. And if you lose a couple of games early, the pressure comes right on to pick up some bonus points to make the semis.

The Stormers are probably not as good as the Waratahs on paper, but they have a home advantage as well as Jacques Fourie and Bryan Habana in their three-quarter line, Schalk Burger in the pack and Ricky Januarie on the bench.

In some ways, this game is the Australian Waratahs vs the South African Waratahs. They both wear blue, play out of harbourside cities, have heaps of talent, and can’t really get it together when the situation demands.

The Tahs have a good record on the road, but they’ll need to improve on their execution from last week if they are not to be found out by the territorial boot of Peter Grant, and the élan of Bryan Habana.

I know what you’re thinkin’ punk. Are we gonna win two games, or one game, or none? What you gotta ask yourself is … are you are a heartfelt supporter or a businesslike punter?

The answer will determine your stance on the weekend’s matches.

If you’re completely one-eyed about supporting the Aussies, then you might like to entertain ideas of a two out of four result (Brumbies and Waratahs), or, if the stars all align and the gods reach down and bless Suncorp Stadium, even three out of four (Reds, Brumbies, Waratahs).

But if you’re a hardened punter, you’ll be staying well away from the Aussie teams this week. You know as well as I do, we’re looking down the barrel of a four-way crossfire, and we’ll be lucky if anyone makes it out alive.

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