Why Gold Coast will win the championship

Roar Pro

By Eamonn Flanagan, 19 Feb 2010 The Crowd is a Roar Pro

Tagged:: A-League, a-league finals, football, Gold Coast United, Melbourne Victory, Sydney FC

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While all the focus is on the big city clubs, Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory, the A-League winner is likely to come from the club with the smallest crowds in the league, Gold Coast United.

Now it’s easy to predict the winners when it’s a two horse race but I thought Roar fans would love to see someone die on their sword right here, right now.

I know, I know the Gold Coast have been doing it tough lately, losing at home, losing away, they even lost in the tribunal, with Steve Pantelidis copping five weeks and Kevin Muscat two weeks.

But the stars are aligning for one of the A-League’s new teams to win the Championship in their first season, as Miron Bleiberg bragged early doors.

Here’s why the Gold Coast will win.

They have the easiest game bar none against a much jaded and Michael Bridges / Fabio Vignaroli-less Newcastle Jets. Gold Coast will win right?

A great start to finals football and a much needed confidence boosting win.

Okay we agree on that.

Meanwhile over in the windy Oceania football capital of the world, Wellington – who rarely lose at home – will be roared home by the ever growing local football community as Perth go tamely out. Eugene Dadi to score anyone?

Still think I make sense? Of course you do.

So it comes down to the Gold Coast at home to Wellington. Now I know Wellington won last time with a dubious penalty but lightning or dodgy refs can’t strike twice not even in the A-League … or on second thoughts…they probably will.

But Jason Culina, Joel Porter, Charlie Miller and Shane Smeltz will win. None of them are injured, at least not yet. And Wellington don’t really travel well do they?

Gold Coast are at home and will be up for it.

And so Gold Coast lie in wait or at least head to Melbourne.

Why Melbourne?

Because Melbourne will lose to Sydney again in the preliminary final. Without Archie Thompson and Robbie Kruse, add on trips to China and back, Carlos Hernandez off on international duty with Costa Rica, and there is no way Melbourne can beat Sydney FC over two legs.

Just too many games for the exciting Melbourne team; exciting when they have the full complement of attacking players. This time they don’t.

(Wonder what Ernie Merrick thinks now about selling his forward line in November!)

So Gold Coast to silence Melbourne at the Dome; possibly their only true test of their finals campaign.

And so to the final. Sydney FC v Gold Coast.

Gold Coast beat Sydney quite comfortably recently, albeit by just one goal, and with the attacking show ponies the Gold Coast have, who would bet against them in front of a packed crowd in Sydney? Not me? Not you?

Against a Sydney team not renowned for their attacking flair, Sydney now lack Steve Corica – their most creative player.

So Gold Coast surf to a deserve title! Or is it a case of last A-League attacker standing takes the trophy?

Disagree?

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The Crowd Says (27) | Page 1 of Comments

Tom said | February 19th 2010 @ 7:46am | Report comment

Yep.

I recall the last time Gold Coast travelled to Melbourne.

Plus its very hard to imagine the team that lost to Wellington and North Queensland in the last two weeks wining three in a row from here.

Plus karma would dictate that Clive Palmer’s team should go away empty-handed.

Plus Melbourne look like good things to beat Sydney from here. Sydney are still struggling to create multiple chances against the Victory backline. Two goals from outside the box and one from a deflection in the last two games.

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TheMagnificent11 said | February 19th 2010 @ 8:25am | Report comment

I think it will be a Melbourne v. G.C. final. I think Sydney will struggle a bit without Corica’s creativity and leadership. Although I’m a Brisbane fan, I wouldn’t mind seeing Gold Coast win. It would help them get better crowds and that would make the M1 derby even bigger.

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Dogz R Barkn said | February 19th 2010 @ 8:33am | Report comment

My prediction.

SFC can dominate Melbourne when the latter choose to play their normal attacking game, because Lavicka has fine-tuned SFC to play tight, and to counter attack when the opportunity presents (and that explains why SFC have produced the greatest number of 1-0 victories this season, in the history of the A-League).

But – as Melbourne showed when it went down to 10 men and parked the bus – SFC have nothing the minute Melbourne refuses to play its attacking game – SFC loses its advantage.

Nil-all is all it takes, and I’d say Melbourne has a slightly better chance of achieving that than SFC has of securing the 1-0 win it needs – it doesn’t actually matter whether Thompson is fit or not with Melbourne opting to play a 5-5-0 (and the likes of Hernandez, Angulo, Ward and Pondeljak taking it in turns to make runs into an empty SFC half).

I reckon SFC will end up playing against the Nix in the prelim – and it will be a 50/50 bet, because NZ teams actually have a very good record playing SFC in Sydney.

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Gaz said | February 19th 2010 @ 8:56am | Report comment

It all makes perfect sense to me! LOL!

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Art Sapphire said | February 19th 2010 @ 9:10am | Report comment

Eamonn – for GCU to become champions they have to win 4 knock out games in a row. The last 2 being away from home.
That will not be easy. No denying the optimism of your piece but let’s just hope for your sake that GCU beat the Jets on Saturday. Otherwise, we might be reading your next instalment – ‘Why GCU are the biggest chokers in the A-League”

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- Australian Football said | February 19th 2010 @ 9:46am | Report comment
  
  Art,
  we are only really shooting for 3 win to put us into Asia, as our main focus is the ACL trophy. I did not see the game last night (I couldn’t find a TV stream) but I remembered your post alluding us to the Melb ABC radio broadcast. Thanks.
  
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  - TheMagnificent11 said | February 19th 2010 @ 9:56am | Report comment
    
    If Melbourne are the first team into the grand final, G.C. will need 4 wins to make the ACL. Sydney are in by winning the premiership. Therefore, if Sydney don’t make the final, the other team will be the championship winner.
    
    On the other hand, if Sydney make the grand final, the other grand final team will take the other ACL spot.
    
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    - Australian Football said | February 19th 2010 @ 10:21am | Report comment
      
      Yep Melb won’t make the GF as for reasons Eamonn has suggested they will be defeated next Sunday week by SFC—too much football a travel weary team in a short turn around—as a SFC and GCU supporter (both) 100% correct the runner up in the GF will get the second ACL spot I’m not fussed who takes out the GF as both will be in the ACL.
      
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Midfielder said | February 19th 2010 @ 9:13am | Report comment

I hope they don’t … em starting to dislike Fold Coast … in my world they have replaced Sydney as the team to dislike nay hate … that is aside from the Newcastle. … we must all hate the Jets more than any other team…

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Australian Football said | February 19th 2010 @ 9:35am | Report comment

Eamonn,
interesting analysis and I believe you have nailed it. However, although a SFC v Gold Coast FC is immanent as we both agree––the Grand Final is not going to be clear cut as that. The problem with Gold Coast FC is they have been known to switch off in vital games, and having Miller and Porter in the starting XI at the same time reduces their mobility to cover the ground necessary in the midfield. But, I expect Bleiberg to continue to start with these two players again as he has done before and that is going to be Gold Coast’s down fall if indeed that happens. However, the good news is both SFC and GCU will be playing in the ACL no matter what the out come and I for one can’t wait to watch the GCU play at the Robina stadium in the home legs of the ACL..

~~~~~
AF

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Eamonn Flanagan said | February 19th 2010 @ 9:50am | Report comment

Art Sapphire…no point sittiing on the fence is there and four victories is a tough ask in any code. But really if they get the two home wins, do a job in Melbourne then it’s all on the day. That sounds better doesn’t it.

Anyway thought I’d get in early and …..after last night I’m on to something, I tell ya!

Melbourne task must have just got a lot harder without Mrdja in Sydney, and who knows who will they’ll lost from Chile v Costa Rica, and New Zealand and Thailand/Iran games…not to mention what a kick or two from Joel Griffiths could do to Kevin Muscat in China. There squad can surely only be further depleted.

Anyway weekend will see me with egg on me face or further bullish confidence on the rise. God forbid.
After last nights game and result I’m on the money, you know it as well:)

Australian Football: You seem to know something even I don’t!

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- Australian Football said | February 19th 2010 @ 10:42am | Report comment
  
  Eamonn,
  GCU on their day play the best football in the HAL of any team––the mobility of Culina and Caravella, their work rate is phenomenal––as proven in their last encounter against SFC at SFS. Miller was not in the starting line up only Porter. Who is a good finisher but like Miller are lazy players; both together on the field at the same time we get beaten. That’s my observation of course, but not the coaching staff of GCU. I shall be going to the final on Saturday night hoping to see Miller on the bench to come on late in the second half for Porter.
  
  ~~~~~
  AF
  
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Luke W said | February 19th 2010 @ 12:01pm | Report comment

Your scenario fails at the first hurdle. Jets to beat Gold Coast this weekend and make a fairytale run to the GF to eventually be crowned Champions!

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Eamonn Flanagan said | February 19th 2010 @ 2:31pm | Report comment

Luke W: You’re dreamin

No Bridges, No Vignaroli.. Jest you Jets fan!

And see you front up Monday to work here at the Roar….You won’t miss me!

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