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The Crowd Says (19) | Page 1 of Comments

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  pothale said | February 24th 2010 @ 4:29am | Report comment

  In contrast to Kidney’s changes, England are unchanged from Italy game:

  15 D Armitage (London Irish);
  14 Mark Cueto (Sale),
  13 Mathew Tait (Sale),
  12 Riki Flutey (Brive),
  11 Ugo Monye (Harlequins);
  10 Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon),
  9 Danny Care (Harlequins);
  1 Tim Payne (Wasps),
  2 Dylan Hartley (Northampton),
  3 Dan Cole (Leicester),
  4 Simon Shaw (Wasps),
  5 Steve Borthwick (Saracens, captain),
  6 James Haskell (Stade Francais),
  7 Lewis Moody (Leicester),
  8 Nick Easter (Harlequins).

  Replacements: Lee Mears (Bath), David Wilson (Bath), Louis Deacon (Leicester), Joe Worsley (Wasps), Paul Hodgson (London Irish), Toby Flood (Leicester), Ben Foden (Northampton).

  Should be a good game. Both teams need to throw the shackles off for different reasons. England to build progress and fashion a winning stamp for their game to take them into a shoot-out with France in the final match. Ireland to restore confidence after the gut-punching defeat against France.

  Like last season, Kidney makes four changes mid series. This time, two of them forced by injury or bad behaviour (Murphy and Best for Kearney and Flannery), and one on performance – Sexton for O’Gara, and one slightly mystifying – O’Callaghan for Cullen.

  Donncha O’Callaghan hasn’t necessarily done anything wrong or right – since he’s been out injured. However, most commentators picked Leo Cullen, the Leinster captain, has having performed better than most in the last two tests, particularly in his performance in the lineout. Given Borthwick’s ability on lineout calls, and forcing teams to throw front, coupled with the 60 minute ballast of Shaw, the Irish pairing of O’Connell and O’Callaghan will have their work cut out.

  If Cullen is unlucky given his positive performance, then O’Leary must be thanking his stars he didn’t get the chop along with O’Gara. He’s retained his place leaving Reddan to continue warming the bench. Maybe the more muscular O’Leary might be a better match for Care, though the Irish 9 needs to worry more about the speed and quality of ball he gives to his backline. An unfamiliar partnership with Sexton might give England something to chew over in how they could target a lack of understanding to make up for their chagrin and losing the easy-hit channel of O’Gara.

  O’Driscoll is off the boil in this test season, and has been looking slightly fazed in his last few matches. A drift out to the wing and bringing Bowe in alongside Darcy might occur during the match.

  And Geordan Murphy gets another last hurrah at 15. Just when people had written his obituary in the green shirt, back he comes into the fray. He had the best kind of return from injury for his Leicester club, captaining them to victory and scoring a try at the weekend. He’s one of the most popular and respected Irish players in England where he’s plied his trade for nearly a decade, making many friends across the English Premiership. But it won’t stop him putting in the dagger when it matters to kill off the match.

  It’ll be a tight match, but in the spirit of the new interpretations taking hold in week 3, I’ll predict an 82-79 scoreline with Wilkinson kicking the winning penalty in the 69th minute with both teams taking a rest for the last ten minutes having tired of scoring tries.

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• Pajovic said | February 24th 2010 @ 5:22am | Report comment

  Pothale, The weather is pretty shocking here in London so I think it will be close and low scoring but ultimately Ireland to win by around 5.

  I saw Sexton again at the weekend, I think he is a good player and he is definitely a better option than O’Gara.

  Surprised that Cullen has been dropped and I prefer Trimble to Earls. Your front row looks a lot more balanced with Best in there. Should be pretty even in the scrums with Payne and Hayes being as sh*t as each other, Best having a slight edge on Hartley and Cole having a slight edge on Healy.

  England were always going to be unchanged, only question would have been Armitage vs Foden at fullback and Johnson is always going to go with the conservative choice. If I was in charge I would have been tempted to throw a curve ball in there and play both Foden and Ashton. Both a bit maverick, and could have backfired horribly, but they counter attack well together and would have given you something to think about. ah well – hope you like watching Delon Armitage and Mark Cueto hoofing balls downfield because you are going to see a lot of that on Saturday! Hoooof!

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• Viscount Crouchback said | February 24th 2010 @ 5:25am | Report comment

  I think O’Callaghan for Cullen makes sense. The Cullen-O’Connell partnership is slightly unbalanced, imo. It offers a magnificent lineout presence, granted, but it also lacks punch around the park. And it’s not as if you’re losing a huge amount in the lineout – O’Callaghan took Shaw to the cleaners at Thomond Park a couple of seasons ago.

  Murphy at 15 makes sense, but you have to wonder whether he and Best will cope with the pace and intensity of the game after so long out.

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• Rusty said | February 24th 2010 @ 5:29am | Report comment

  Great preview Pothale, I especially like the reference to last weekends blowout scoreline. I didn’t know the NH were following the same line on the breakdown interpretations?

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  • Viscount Crouchback said | February 24th 2010 @ 6:08am | Report comment

    Well, no one seems to know whether the north is following the new interpretations or not. I don’t think we are following them to quite the same (ludicrous) extent, but it has been noticeable that referees are offering much more leeway to the attacking team than they were last season.

    However, this week’s game will be refereed by Mark Lawrence, so I am sure that both coaches will be having nightmares about him coming up to Twickers with a Super 14 mindset and whistling both defences off the park every time they venture within a foot of a ruck.

    I think the approach as seen in the north at present is pretty much spot on, and hopefully the first couple of weeks of S14 has merely been the consequence of over-zealous refereeing excited by their new guidelines.

    Ireland, incidentally, will suffer more than most from the new approach – which is why I suspect Les Kiss is so infuriated by it.

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    • 

      pothale said | February 24th 2010 @ 6:41am | Report comment

      Hmmm – couldn’t argue with you on that VC.

      Jeez, if Lawrence starts behaving anything like the Lions/Chiefs ref, there’ll be riots in Richmond. The thought of a 6 Nation’s match exceeding the 50 point mark doesn’t bear thinking about…..

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    • Justin said | February 24th 2010 @ 6:44am | Report comment

      Cmon now lads, we can easily pick one game from each hemisphere that has been rubbish. Lets look at the overall picture shall we?

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      • 

        pothale said | February 24th 2010 @ 6:48am | Report comment

        No – not when you want to inject humour into something. That’s what makes the exception more interesting and talked about. Would you prefer we mentioned the 6-6 draw from last season?

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        • Justin said | February 24th 2010 @ 6:56am | Report comment

          You guys would have been salivating over that one

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          • 

            pothale said | February 24th 2010 @ 7:23am | Report comment

            There you go, Justin. I set ‘em up, you knock them out of the park.

            Thought you’d enjoy that.

            Apparently, the 6 N have been officially using the new interpretations. So it’s down to how timid or raucous the refs are going to be.

            However….. and there’s always a however when it comes to introducing new laws/interpretations, etc…Robbie Deans is quoted with a different take on matters.

            As part of an article that says that only 6N matches featuring SH refs will be treated that way. “….our blokes who are going up to referee in the Six Nations have been instructed to referee exactly the same way that they are here,” he’s quoted as saying.

            That’ll make for interesting matches. Lawrence will be assisted by Christophe Berdos of France and David Changleng of Scotland – hopefully those three don’t come to blows on any of their decisions.

            It’d make a change for the players to watch whilst the officials have a dust-up in the middle of the field.

• Wavell Wakefield said | February 24th 2010 @ 5:33am | Report comment

  I’m pleased that the English selection is consistent, this way there are no excuses for either the players or the management.

  This should be an interesting (rather than exciting) game: England’s lineout, normally excellent, faltered last week – will O’Connell terrorise the sometimes erratic Hartley?; the Irish scrum has faltered on and off for goodness knows how long – will the consistently dull Payne and the aspiring tight technician Cole be able to dominate Healy and Hayes?; neither team is playing an out-and-out 7; both captains need to assert themselves on the pitch; both backlines haven’t offered anything cohesive or accurate this 6N; Sexton is the young 10 trying to make a name for himself, and Wilkinson is the veteran 10 perhaps trying to galvanise a flagging test career; Ireland need to win to prove that last season wasn’t a season of drastic over-achievement; England need to win so that the current season doesn’t descend into under-achievement… This game could be spicier than a pair of garlic underpants.

  I’m going for an England win, pothale (surprise surprise he says), simply because I think England need to win more. I know that is quite a bland thing to say, but last year provided a dogged, determined effort from both sides. This year may be a bit looser, but ultimately England simply HAVE to win at Twickenham, and hence the game, IMO, may break down into a close quarter grind, and if it comes down to it the English pack is bigger.

  As a part-time Ireland fan (when England aren’t playing) I would also have preferred to see Cullen retained. I guess his face doesn’t fit. O’Callaghan is a good athlete, but I don’t think he has the necessary presence to be a force at 4. IMO he is a 5 playing out of position. I’d also like to see O’Driscoll move into 12, and Bowe to 13. The thing with D’Arcy and O’Driscoll is that we’ve seen it all before. Excellent pairing that they once were they haven’t really clicked on the test stage in a while, and I think that has been reflected in Kidney’s willingness to give Paddy Wallace a go. D’Arcy is simply too obvious. His game hasn’t moved up a notch, and I suspect that he’s on the way out. As we saw on the Lions tour Bowe provides a real physical presence, pace and improved handling skills. Why not move him closer to the action? I’m also massively unconvinced by Earls; he’s either a real nuisance or a headless chicken. Anyway, you’ve commented on mostly everything, so no need for me to ramble… Good luck.

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• 

  pothale said | February 24th 2010 @ 6:32am | Report comment

  Thanks for that WW.

  England surprised me last week with their plentiful kicking away of the ball particularly with Flutey returning to the fold.

  I expect much more of him this week, and will target 12 and 13. If he clicks, then I think the England backline will click and we’ll see some scoring, even if the misfiring Monye is hogging one wing. Cueto looks and sounds hungry.

  Delon Armitage is going to be tested early on, but if he holds then England will build in confidence particularly at HQ.

  Ireland’s backline is out of whack still. Sexton is getting his first taste of starting a 6 Nations – in Twickenham. Even with his Fiji and SA tests under his belt, this is different. It’s more personal. It’s foreign turf. And it’s England. Can he keep the ice in his veins?

  Something tells me O’Driscoll is not going to last this match. There’s been something missing from his game, and he isn’t showing the hunger of 2009 for some reason – maybe something personal in his life, but he looks distracted. And if he’s distracted, he’s going to get injured or badly derailed.

  Earls – he’s a nervous nellie. Trimble fortunately is on the bench. Though I would have put Wallace on the bench instead of O’Gara. He can fill 10 if he has to.

  I agree with you on BOD to 12 and have said so here previously with Bowe to take 13 where he’s performed for the Ospreys. Others would rightly argue that Darcy’s form has been good this season and is getting better – he was a whisker from getting the first try against France last week.

  I hope Geordan has a good game – he deserves one.

  Nonetheless, I think England will win it too. In a reverse of the 2000 game and Keith Wood’s brilliant sneaky try – they will want it more – and crucially they are on a roll. Who knows – it might even become train-wreck bad for Ireland, with the France game looking like a minor car crash in comparison.

  VC’s comment on Best lasting is accurate. Though a bit of me will want it, cos I’d love to see Seanie Cronin from Connacht barrelling headlong down the field like Keith Woods used to do – for a hooker he has serious pace.

  Hayes will get his 100th cap, but won’t be on in the second half, but Tony Buckley does not fill me with enthusiasm as his replacement, despite having an improved game with Munster at the weekend in their victory over Edinburgh.

  I think Moody and Easter are going to like this game, and may well provide the necessary poke, pester and power presence to set Care & Co running free.

  Off we go.

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  • Wavell Wakefield said | February 25th 2010 @ 7:47am | Report comment

    ‘Nonetheless, I think England will win it too. In a reverse of the 2000 game and Keith Wood’s brilliant sneaky try – they will want it more – and crucially they are on a roll. Who knows – it might even become train-wreck bad for Ireland, with the France game looking like a minor car crash in comparison.’

    Ah, come now, pothale. Let’s put a halt to this old busines, “Ah, go on now lads, go easy on our buoys mind, shurr shurr. Jaysus, you’re big tough lads.” Let’s not forget that prior to the sin binning of Healy Ireland were getting into good positions versus France, plus they were denied a try (to D’Arcy) by literally the thinnest of margins. Ireland simply made a lot of uncharacteristic errors, it’s not like Rome collapsed overnight Ireland are generally an accurate, passionate, skill full and well coached side. If one team is likely to rack up a score then I suspect that team won’t be wearing white.

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      pothale said | February 25th 2010 @ 8:34am | Report comment

      OK then.

      Though I did predict some months ago, that England would progress this season, Ireland would tread water at best, and that Wales were going backwards.

      O’Driscoll is still perceived to be the heart and engine within this team,(crucially by his teammates, whatever about the opposition) and so far he’s not firing. If he gets going on Saturday early on, then I’ll reverse my opinion, and Ireland should win comfortably.

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      • Wavell Wakefield said | February 25th 2010 @ 8:49am | Report comment

        The one thing that has generally been pretty good about England’s game has been their defence, and one thing Ireland have is strike runners. They should have enough not to rely on O’Driscoll, but then I suppose that’s a rather simplistic assessment of the merits of captaincy and tradition.

        Can England absorb that strike power? I don’t think so, and I don’t think an overtly negative game plan is the right approach. Last season with Worsley firing at 7 and big men at 1 and 3, the pack could really slow down the contact area which allowed the back division to counter attack, something they did reasonably well against Italy, France and Scotland.

        This season the pack is smaller and less able to do that, so we’ve seen a change in tactics. As easy as it is to criticise England last season they pursued the same tactics in all matches they played, so there was an evident progression the more the team played together. That hasn’t been the case this season, and so although there has been a consistency in selection there has been an enforced alteration of tactics. Is anybody really sure what England are trying to do? That said, it has probably been forgotten that the 03 Grand Slam season saw 2 good performances out of 5, so I’ll take a win as long as it comes. An ugly win is like an ugly baby: you don’t love it any less. Fingers crossed.

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        • 

          pothale said | February 25th 2010 @ 12:15pm | Report comment

          Well, if you compare the Ireland team to last year, there’s a couple of pluses and minuses. Fitzgerald is missing on the wing, and was in good form last season and started out well this season before getting injured. He was also used to the Leinster backline unlike Earls.

          Earls, I think we’re all agreed is too much of the rabbit in the headlights. Having Trimble as a standby is a good thing, though I’d have preferred Horgan. (Horgan has had good success in getting important and symbolic tries against England.)

          Darcy is clearly dancing at the moment, but as you have averred, he is somewhat one-dimensional in his running, or predictable maybe. O’Driscoll is off-colour in my view. Bowe has been scoring, and will be a constant threat to England, out wide and linking in the centre.

          Sexton – hopefully – will be a plus. He stands flatter than O’Gara, and has better pace to make full breaks.

          He’s hooked to O’Leary for service, with whom he hasn’t played that often – lets hope there’s sufficient understanding there. And thankfully, if O’Leary starts slowing down, Reddan is on the bench as a back-up.

          Murphy, like Keanrey, Dempsey, Horgan Bowe et al, has a GAA pedigree and his catching/fielding is superb. If England decide to play a high ball game for a while, it will probably be just to test how rusty he is. Cos he is. Three club games under his belt since last October, and no recent test matches. But if he can last the 80 minutes, then we should be solid. He’s not going to be as instintively good as Kearney in the moves, since he’s in Leicester, not Leinster.

          Experience is definitely on Ireland’s side though. And they’ve got leadership runnng throught he squad. Murphy, Best, O’Driscoll, O’Connell and Cullen are all current or former club captains. Murphy heads up the current Guinness Premiership captains, O’Connell, the Magners League Champions, O’Driscoll, captain of the test team and Grand Slam, and Cullen, captain of the Heineken Cup champions. Not too shabby.

          Oh feckit – Ireland by 15.

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          • Wavell Wakefield said | February 25th 2010 @ 8:58pm | Report comment

            It seems we have come full circle, Mr pothale.

            Aah… the Horgan try, I had a triple that day and the last match to come in was England v Ireland. Mr Horgan made my student existence a lot more comfortable that day. What does he have to do to get another crack in the test jersey?

            Talking of bets, I’ve just perused the Paddy Power website and a triple on England, Wales and Scotland is 9-1. However, if you’re feeling more neutral the points handicap is thus (at evens): Wales (+7)/France (-7); England (Scr)/Ireland (Scr) and Italy (+4)/Scotland (-4). I like the look of Wales (+7) personally, although I have a gut instinct demanding that I take on the triple.

• Viscount Crouchback said | February 24th 2010 @ 6:32am | Report comment

  That’s rather harsh on D’Arcy. He spent ages out with a broken arm and, since his return to full fitness, has looked excellent. He was one of Leinster’s best players against London Irish, and one of Ireland’s best players in Paris. I suppose one could argue that he doesn’t have much of a kicking game, and hence that if he’s closed down well by the defence, he becomes a tad one-dimensional. But he looks a big running threat at present, so I’d certainly play him.

  I doubt O’Driscoll would much fancy moving to 12 at his age. His hands aren’t the best, and it’s been noticeable just how much he avoids contact during first phase possession nowadays. McGeechan rarely used him from first phase possession during the Lions tour. I think the key for O’Driscoll’s longevity is to avoid the heavy traffic of the inside channels and to instead use his nous and awareness fo make things happen when defences are stretched after several phases.

  I sort of agree about O’Callaghan, in that he’s never convinced me as an enforcer at 4, but he has played his entire career there, unlike Leo Cullen – and to be honest, Cullen impresses me even less as a 4. I suspect that O’Callaghan’s greater fitness and workrate won him the nod from Kidney. It’s strange: Ireland have lots of willowy 5s or 4 1/2s, but no real beef merchants.

  Agree about Earls. I suspect Cueto will be lining him up with glee.

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  • Wavell Wakefield said | February 24th 2010 @ 7:02am | Report comment

    D’Arcy can’t keep running back into the pack/traffic, VC. You know what he’s going to do, even if he isnt necessarily the easiest man to halt. What with Ireland not having a dominant pack I think somebody more physical is necessary, and somebody with more variety. O’Driscoll might not be that man, but I’d like to see him inside Sexton. Granted D’Arcy performs that role very well at Leinster but in this instance it might be worth trying something different. I’m not sure about O’Driscoll avoiding the big collisions, nor about his hands, but then to be perfectly honest I haven’t been paying a great deal of close attention recently, so I’ll have a look this weekend. Perhaps it’s also worth considering dropping O’Driscoll and playing D’Arcy and Bowe together.

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