Seven teams in contention in 2010
Roar Guru
By Redb, 5 Mar 2010 Redb is a Roar Guru
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- AFL, Geelong Cats, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles
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As the season 2010 approaches, up to seven clubs loom as genuine premiership threats. Geelong are the ‘Yul Brynner’ of the ‘Magnificent Seven’, the leader of the pack.
With a gun midfield, and stable book ends, they look to be just as competitive as in the past 3 years. Not even the retirement of Captain Tom Harley will weaken their defence, given Harry Taylor really stepped up in a main defensive role last season.
Hunger is the key: 10/10 chance to win.
St Kilda have shown they’re an undeniable force in the AFL.
With a strong defensive unit and game plan backed by a highly competent midfield and two hard running talls in Reiwoldt and Kossi, they appear to be the complete package. After going so close in 2009, their hunger will be unsatisfied until they hoist the flag.
10/10 chance to win.
Western Bulldogs look to be have the goods this year.
The inclusion of Barry Hall has given them a power forward to target. The Doggies have a top class midfield and excellent crumbers in Akermanis and Co. They are direct, which Hall will love.
10/10 chance to win.
Collingwood have recruited well, and have a solid ruckman in Darren Jolly and an able midfielder in Luke Ball. Their forward structure seems a bit limited, but they are coached well and always play with good tenacity.
9/10 chance to win.
Hawthorn’s 2009 was a shocker, partly ruined by key early injuries, partly a premiership hangover, which is not unusual for a young team that wins early. They have a very potent forward line, if not the best, with Franklin, Roughead and the brilliant Rioli.
The midfield is solid enough, but the question of where to play Hodge in the midfield to strengthen it will only further weaken their Achilles heel – defence.
8.5/10 chance to win.
Adelaide’s second half of the 2009 season was a real bonus for their fans.
They have a young gun forward in the making, with Tippett, and have few weaknesses around the ground. They are a very well coached and disciplined team. I’d suggest though that they maybe downhill skiers. 2010 will be their chance to prove the doubters wrong.
8/10 chance to win.
The Brisbane Lions status in the magnificent seven now appears shaky in light of the Fevola–Bingle saga. It’s too early to know if Fev will even play the first few games of the 2010 season.
Having traded Bradshaw their forward options will rely heavily on Jono Brown in Fev’s potential absence.
7/10 chance to win.
A few teams will jostle for the 8th position in the finals, but it’s hard to see them as genuine challengers for the premiership this year. I’d say Essendon, Carlton, an improved Sydney and Port Adelaide look the next best.
West Coast, Fremantle and North Melbourne won’t be too far off the pace, leaving both Richmond and Melbourne to continue to languish at the bottom.
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Savvas Tzionis said | March 5th 2010 @ 8:21am | Report comment
I have been sayign this to all and sundry.
This could be the best year in ages.
Michael C said | March 5th 2010 @ 8:57am | Report comment
Adelaide – been some major injury concerns there in pre-season, a few guys have done stuff all for some time, they might be a slow starter and come home with a run – - Crows have 6 of first 12 at AAMI, then get a golden run mid season of 4 in the next 5 weeks at AAMI (with a trip to Subi in betweeen – - and one match is a showdown with Port),
How they sit at Rnd 17 will be crucial – - come home with Rich (MCG), Doggies (AAMI), Bris (Gabba), Coll (MCG), Stk (AAMI),
you could easily see the Crows struggling for more than 2 wins from the last 5. So, if they start slow, they might be in trouble.
Edwards, McLeod and Goodwin are all well on the wrong side of 30.
Some of their players with issues over pre-season include Bock, Van Berlo, Burton, Symes and Moran. I’m tipping the Crows will be battling for 7-11 position.
Brisbane – I wonder about the ability of Luke Power to stand up for the whole year, how is Rich travelling at the moment?? Is Charman going to be on the park or will Mitch Clark and Leuenberger be carrying the ruck?
Black, Brown and Fev (I miss when they had White up there too) will be keys obviously.
Need to hit the ground running – 3 of first 4 at Gabba (5 of first 8). Rnd 11-17 across June-July sees only 2 Gabba matches, and finishing with trips to Launceston and Geelong. A key time frame that for the Lions.
Run home will be Melb (Gabba), WCE (Subi), Ade (Gabba), Ess(Etihad), Syd (Gabba)…..so, if they’re travelling okay, then, they could expect 3 from 5 at least out of that lot.
Is see the Lions fighting for spots 5-8
walshy17 said | March 5th 2010 @ 8:58am | Report comment
10/10 for any team at this stage of the year is a bit high. I’d go,
StKilda – 9/10. Fantastic defensively across the ground, with excellent forwards and a powerful midfield, they will be hard to stop this year.
Geelong- 8.5/10. One year older, I think the loss of Tom Harley’s leadership will hurt and last year they did it harder then 2008. it’ll keep getting harder.
Bulldogs – 8/10. Still have a bit to prove, but the addition of Hall should help. Won’t be suprised if they finish above Geelong.
Adelaide – 8/10. Best defense in the competition, very good young midfield, and a forward line that is quickly becoming very potent. However finals record isn’t very good under Neil Craig.
Hawthorn – 7.5/10. Lot of improvement is needed from last year, but the addition of Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson should help. Franklin and Roughead need to pull their fingers out.
Brisbane – 7.5/10. Could win a flag or could finish out of the 8. Their heavy recruiting has thrown a curve ball to the 2010 system. Fevola and Brown will form an excellent forward line, an upcoming midfield will help Black and Power and an under-rated backline. Who knows what will happen..
It’s gonna be a good year…
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:01am | Report comment
No Collingwood in your estimations?
I don’t rate Gibson all that highly. The Hawks defense especially against a quality forward line will test them if General Hodge is compelled to play as an inside midfielder. Looking forward to see a fit Rioli.
Savvas Tzionis said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:04am | Report comment
I have disturbing theory about Gibson and Hawthorn.
Before I touch on it, let me ask, why did he want to go to Hawthorn?
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:15am | Report comment
Ok I’ll bite?
Savvas Tzionis said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:26am | Report comment
Well, let me tell you the UNdisturbing bit first.
He appears as a cocky know it all. And it appears that he must have socialised with Hawthorn players whilst he was at North Melbourne and found their company in tune with his personality.
Of course, that cockiness may have led to Hawthorn’s very poor performance last year in missing the finals altogether.
Is this all true?
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:30am | Report comment
i’d reckon cockiness is part and parcel of a premiership hangover that lead them to a very poor pre season.
I hate Hawthorn, nothing gave me more pleasure (except beating Carlton) than beating them in Rnd 22, but I can understand what might happen to a young team with early success.
Mr Real Australian it's called Football Man formerly known as Kurt said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:17am | Report comment
You mean apart from the obvious fact that they offered him lots of dosh and a better chance to play in a premiership?
Savvas Tzionis said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:28am | Report comment
Yes, Gibson probably thinks North Melbourne is a ‘loser’ club.
Mr Real Australian it's called Football Man formerly known as Kurt said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:33am | Report comment
You seem troubled by some burdensome allegation you’re just itching to share with us Savvas. Please don’t hold back.
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:37am | Report comment
Ironic given that Leigh Colbert left Geelong to go to North Melbourne to play in a premiership team.
Ask Geelong fans how they feel about Colbert and then run?
Michael C said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:51am | Report comment
Hawthorn -
major issues around the following:
fitness of C.Rioli, (he really is their forward line X-factor)
fitness of C.Young and S.Burgoyne,
Ruck stocks – - Max Bailey is down and Rob Campbell is gone. Simon Taylor and Brent Renouf have a major responsibility.
back line – no Croad, at least, no ‘promise of’ Croad anymore. Josh Gibson ironically had finally survived at North long enough to no longer be an undersized ‘key defender’ now that North have Grima, Thompson, Hansen and even Robbie Tarrant coming through…..Gibbo got exposed as too one sided (leftie) playing elsewhere…….he now goes to Hawthorn where he’ll be an undersized ‘key defender’……..which doesn’t say much for a ‘premiership defence’
Hawthorn to fight it out for spots 5-8.
I’m kinda left with StK, WB, Geel and Coll for my top 4.
Michael C said | March 5th 2010 @ 10:55am | Report comment
btw – with the illustrated guys not ready to go yet – the Hawthorn first 7 weeks might be super critical -
they begin with :
Melb at the MCG (pencil in a win)
Geel at MCG
WBG at Etihad
Coll at MCG
North at Aurura how are we looking for 2 from 5 at best??
then Ess at MCG and WCE at Subi,
any chance 2 from 7 at that point.
btw – and with Rioli under a dark cloud, and Mark Williams gone, they need a lot from their young kids…..Muston, Dowler, Schoenmakers, Ellis etc. Buddy and Orange Roughie must stand up – the latter especially far more than from last year.
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 11:12am | Report comment
MC,
Not a great start in terms of playing 3 of the top 4 sides from last year, but if they are truly premiership contenders some early wins against any of Geel, WB and Coll will confirm or deny their status.
gazz said | March 5th 2010 @ 12:02pm | Report comment
From the evidence of 2009 and the 2010 pre-season so far, I can’t see Hawthorn or Brisbane really threatening. Adelaide I think might fade too, while I really thought Sydney Swans were impressive in their NAB Cup games and could be a surprise top 8 side this year. Port look handy too, but aren’t the most reliable side.
But for the premiership, I fancy the Dogs.
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 1:32pm | Report comment
Swans NAB Cup form looked pretty good. They look to have some speed in their ranks and I guess the inclusion of a fit Bradshaw up forward will help their chances immensely. Top 8 at a stretch they cant have the Bombers spot anyway.
James said | March 5th 2010 @ 1:54pm | Report comment
The fight for the four will be awesome.
I think the teams will be grouped in the following way:
Group 1:
Geelong
St Kilda
Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Brisbane
Group 2:
Adelaide
Sydney
West Coast
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Carlton
Essendon
Power
Group 3:
Melbourne
Richmond.
The order within those groups is up for grabs
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 1:57pm | Report comment
No Western bulldogs! – surely a group 1.
Poor ol’ Port Adelaide.
James said | March 5th 2010 @ 1:59pm | Report comment
Whoops……lucky I still had time to edit it
If it were up to me, there would be no Power
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 2:07pm | Report comment
Bit harsh, they look a much meaner unit in their new jumper compared to that previous jabberwocky teal offence to right angles!
Wayno said | March 5th 2010 @ 4:14pm | Report comment
The power have a bit of a hardness about them this year that I havent seen for a long time. i think they’ll make the eight this year.
Redb said | March 9th 2010 @ 2:18pm | Report comment
Wayno,
I watched most of the Bulldogs v Port game and came away pretty impressed by Port’s attack on
the ball. Definite chance for Top 8 if they can maintain that level of intensity throughout the season.
Anyway, the Dons have 8th sewn up so its academic
Wayno said | March 9th 2010 @ 8:28pm | Report comment
I’m fine with that, there’ll be an extra spot cos the Crows will be slugging it out for the spoon this year.
James said | March 9th 2010 @ 8:53pm | Report comment
Crows for the wooden spoon! Huge call!
Redb said | March 10th 2010 @ 7:00am | Report comment
Wayno,
After the shellacking the Crows handed out to an undermanned Bombers in the elimination final last year I wholeheartedly endorse your suggestion.
Somehow I dont like our chances though
Michael C said | March 5th 2010 @ 2:23pm | Report comment
are Carlton lucky to not be in group 3???
Redb said | March 5th 2010 @ 2:26pm | Report comment
I think their midfield keeps them in group 2…. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs … et al.
bever fever said | March 5th 2010 @ 4:58pm | Report comment
Well i guess when the Dockers beat the saints by a point tomorrow, this article will be revised to “8 teams in contention in 2010″.
Heartland? said | March 7th 2010 @ 10:33pm | Report comment
hahaha!
Good one – Dockers have never beaten the Saints at a current ground in Victoria. That’s NEVER.
bever fever said | March 7th 2010 @ 10:37pm | Report comment
Not at a current ground, interesting, so where have they beaten them, must be waverly.
Anyway, the saints were to good by a long way, good luck for the final and year.
Wayno said | March 9th 2010 @ 11:21pm | Report comment
Interestingly; the Dockers have a pretty good record against the saints, 11 each from 22 meetings in home and away games. When you consider that Freo’s win / loss against all sides stands at 38% / 62% the Saints at 50/50 look pretty good.
I guess it means diddly after the pizzling they got the other night though.
bever fever said | March 9th 2010 @ 11:56pm | Report comment
Yes but wayno, not withstanding all the stats, who doesn’t have a good record against the Saints.
wayno said | March 10th 2010 @ 12:18am | Report comment
In the last 30 years, the Tigers.
Redb said | March 15th 2010 @ 10:40am | Report comment
Lloydy reads the Roar?
“PENCIL in seven teams, in no particular order, to make the eight: St Kilda, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Adelaide. Look for four teams to be fighting for that eighth position: Port Adelaide, Sydney, Carlton and Essendon.”
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/the-main-game-20100314-q5pu.html