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Josh Gibson of North Melbourne and Jack Riewoldt of Richmond(L) react after a draw in the AFL Round 16 match between the Richmond Tigers and the North Melbourne Kangaroos at the MCG. Slattery Images
Welcome to my preview of the 2010 AFL season. In part one of my series, I look at who will win the wooden spoon all the way up to those who will just miss out on the finals.
16. Richmond
For Tiger fans, I can’t see much happening this year for your club. Another new messiah in Damien Hardwick has overseen a massive clean out of the club, which has seen everyone from veterans (Matthew Richardson, Joel Bowden) to poor performers (Mark Coughlin, Nathan Brown) leaving. This leaves the Tigers in a new phase that will take time and pain. It will be painful, but there will come that time again when the Tigers roar under Hardwick.
15. Fremantle
Sadly, Fremantle fans are in for another shocker. Despite the recruitment of Adam McPhee, Freo seem to lack a winning edge in their side and that will cost them. Mark Harvey is under huge pressure and he may not see out this season if Freo perform as I expect. Matthew Pavlich will need to lead the side through tough times.
14. Melbourne
With an extra year on his contract and a stable front office, the improvement of Melbourne is expected by fans and coaches. While 14th seems minor, it will be a huge step for the club as its young squad starts to come together. Liam Jurrah and Jack Watts can put the burdens of last season behind them and play better football. Dean Bailey’s squad will begin the ascendancy towards finals this season slowly but surely.
13. North Melbourne
Laidley and the Shinbonners are out and Scott and a new era are in. Brad Scott’s revolution starts in 2010. Despite the rhetoric of Scott, it will be a struggle. Josh Gibson will leave a huge gap in defence hopefully Levi Greenwood can fill. Still, it’s going to be hard for the Roos as they will find it hard to score goals with their attack. The only bright spot is the signing of Jack Ziebell, keeping him from the clutches of the Gold Coast.
12. Essendon
After two overachieving years, Essendon are on the slide. Lloyd, Lucas and McPhee have left or retired creating an experience gap. Mark Williams, despite being a good recruit, can’t carry Essendon to the finals. The young side needs to improve its defence as it leaks too many goals, as shown in its solitary finals appearance. Their focus should be on continuing to develop their young squad. Knights knows last year was lucky and he has the time to mould the side.
11. West Coast
Worsfold and his side are on the way back. While there won’t be a finals appearance, finishing 11th will place them on a springboard for finals success. Nic Naitanui will be the talk of Perth this season as he impresses with his athleticism and skill. Shannon Hurn will continue to impress despite continually slipping under the radar. Lynch becomes a mainstay of the forward line with the loss of Adam Hunter and Daniel Kerr, and I feel he’s primed for a huge season. West Coast fans can feel excited as September glory is coming sooner rather than later. Worsfold has been under pressure to rebuild and this season will test his credentials.
10. Carlton
The horror pre-season will take its toll on Carlton. After choking in the finals, Carlton lost its best forward and damaged the brand with a “booze-cruise” that went terribly wrong. Ratten’s squad has huge pressure to perform after a terrible decade and again Carlton will feel the pain of missing finals. Chris Judd’s three game absence will hurt them and Brad Fisher’s knee injury will leave an already gaping hole in the Blues forward line. Ratten will be under pressure to make finals but with the mortal losses in the squad, it just won’t happen in 2010.
9. Port Adelaide
The demons of 2007 will be exercised hopefully this year. Port Adelaide is the Jekyll and Hyde AFL side. They win in style, but lose terribly and cause their supporters frustration. Wade Thompson impresses me as does the new game plan. Dean Laidley, regarded as a master tactician, has presented a bold new plan to the team that can push Port to the brink of the 8. What stops them is the loss of Rodan for 12 weeks and their continuing policy of playing Warren Tredrea. Tredders was potent once upon a time, but his time has expired.
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Sven man said | March 13th 2010 @ 10:13am | Report comment
Pretty good summary although I think from positions 7-11 its very much a raffle at this point as to who will squeeze into the final 8. And as bad as it looks for Richmond, I cant see Melbourne getting of the bottom. They’ve been woeful during the preseason and the one shining light in the forward line is having a shoulder reco. A third spoon + a few extra draft picks for them.
walshy17 said | March 13th 2010 @ 10:49am | Report comment
Spot on!
Al said | March 13th 2010 @ 2:46pm | Report comment
Liam Jurrah is out for four months with a shoulder injury which required a reconstruction.
Mattay said | March 14th 2010 @ 12:42pm | Report comment
I expect Freo and Kangaroos to be a bit better than your predictions would suggest. Also think Sydney will be bottom 8, with either Roos, Port, Carlton or West Coast taking their spot. 7 out of the top 8 seem to pick themselves, there seems to be a bit of a gap between 7th and 8th but then again there’s always a few surprises when we get into the season proper.
wayno said | March 15th 2010 @ 10:24pm | Report comment
Dunno about the port analysis, Tredrea kicked 50 odd goals last year and won the B&F, I’d say he’s still pretty handy to have around . They’re saying Rodan is back to competitive training and could be as early as round 2.
I do agree they’re middle of the field though, I just hope the peaks and troughs are a little less crazy this year.