Who’ll win the 2011 Rugby World Cup?
Roar Pro
By Jason Cave, 15 Mar 2010 The Crowd is a Roar Pro
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In 12 months time, the best rugby nations from around the world will venture to New Zealand for the 2011 Rugby World Cup. The question is, who’ll be world champions?
I’m expecting it’ll be the All Blacks that will be the one standing on the dais being crowned world champions for the first time since 1987.
The South Africans would probably be in the final but will fall short at the final hurdle.
The Wallabies will be in the semis, but at this stage I can’t really see them being there for the final.
Of the 6 Nations, only Wales could be in the semis. England, Scotland, Ireland, Italy and France would be in the quarters, but that’s about as far as they could go.
I think the major surprise of the RWC 2011 would be Argentina. They surprised everyone in the 2007 RWC by getting into the semis and could be there by the knock-out stages of the tournament.
So, here is my semi-final and final predictions for the 2011 RWC:
Semi 1: New Zealand v Wales
Semi 2: South Africa v Australia
Final: New Zealand v South Africa.
World Champions: New Zealand
So, who’s your tip to win the 2011 Rugby World Cup? Australia? New Zealand?
South Africa? Wales? Ireland? England? Scotland? Italy? France? Argentina?
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Lee said | March 15th 2010 @ 5:35am | Report comment
I was under the impression that if the ABs and Boks pool games go to plan then they will meet in a semi and not a final(if at all). Actually looking at the draw, this is how I “think” it will pan out (but we are still 18months out).
Pool A
Winner: NZ
Runner Up: France
Pool B
Winner: Argentina
Runner Up: England
Pool C
Winner: Ireland
Runner Up: Australia
Pool D
Winner:South Africa
Runner Up: Wales
QTF #1: Ireland V Wales
QTF#2: Argentina V France
QTF#3: South Africa V Australia
QTF#4: New Zealand V England
Semi#1:Ireland V France
Semi#2: New Zealand V South Africa
Final is anyones guess, and depends on whether; Ireland can banish WC demons, the french team that turns up on the day, the ABs get over their nerves, SA believe they can beat NZ in NZ.
Disclaimer: Pool B and C were hardest to pick so if those switch around then I expect an Aus – France semi. But all in all too hard to call. For a lot of teams it will depend on player injuries i.e. if the ABs are without one of Carter, or McCaw or SA don’t have Du Preez or Matfield then who knows.
ohtani's jacket said | March 15th 2010 @ 7:37am | Report comment
Lee,
I was surprised to learn that the All Blacks are opening this year’s Tri-Nations against South Africa at Eden Park. It will be only the 9th time NZ and South Africa have played there and the first time since 2001. Would be a shock to the system if the Boks beat us there!
Lee said | March 15th 2010 @ 8:20am | Report comment
Yeah, I think it’s a brave call to be honest…I am a Boks supporter and not sure how we will go, but if we manage to pull off a win at Eden Park against the ABs then that will go along way to help the teams confidence ahead of the WC.
It would make it the 3rd win in a row on NZ soil, and might just level up the psychological edge the ABs always seem to have over us.
Sam said | March 15th 2010 @ 10:48am | Report comment
I agree with you except I think Argentina will beat France, the French seem to struggle against the Argies. I also think Australia may finish higher than Ireland in their pool, in which case i’d pick the Aussies to make the semi’s.
pat 1 said | March 21st 2010 @ 11:28am | Report comment
As a kiwi living in england ,for the past twelve years, i have adapted to the NH and six nations style of play..
In my opinion France are the NH only hope against what will be 3 very strong SH teams…Like many kiwis I am aware of our terrible and forgettable RWC history…So I know a winning AB team is certainly not set in stone…
I am confident however of a SH FINAL and most Likely SH winner!
Don’t right us off just yet though, if the kiwis learn to play a more defensive kicking game we may just coast through.!!.
In the Autumn we did exactly this, playing a less attactive game doing just enough for the win without moving into second gear.We were the only SH team with real sucess and showed a maturity that we lacked in the tri nations..
Dont forget, the new six nations champs France were killed by the ABS 39-16
THE NEXT 18 MONTHS WILL BE AN EXCITING TIME..who eally knows what will happen..
My Pediction NZ -SA FINAL WINNER ??
WHO EVER WINS IT WONT BE PRETTY… IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY TOUGH 1995 RING A BELL?
David Reynolds said | May 31st 2011 @ 11:50am | Report comment
I think thats a good guess, I think Ireland are good underdogs, they cant stand up to nz but they have good results in recent years against Australia and South Africa, their last international game this year they hammered England for 7th out of last 8 games against them, their clubsides are dominating in Europe mosr years and half the Irish players were just on the Leinster side crowned European champions this week for the 2nd time in 3 years, as for France you can never write them off really, can pull off Brilliant rugby, id give wales and England an outside shot, Obviously its probably gonna be one of the big 3 southern hemisphere sides but from the north id fancy France or Ireland
ricardo said | March 15th 2010 @ 6:53am | Report comment
Australia..the sacrifices of the last couple of years are now beginning to hit pay-dirt (re: Reds and Tahs and Brumbies to a lesser extent)..for the first time in a long while, the Wallabies will have more depth in every position than the All Blacks..the Wallabies to beat Wales and France on the way to a showdown with SA..
Lee said | March 15th 2010 @ 8:25am | Report comment
I’d be happy with that, Boks beat the ABs at home in the semi and then face a re-built Wallabies team in the final, and SH rugby rules again.
What we really need is Argy to beat France so that it can be the future four nations teams winning the top 4 places in the WC.
Although, if the last WC taught us anything it’s not to listen to the pre-tournament talk.
I did laugh the other day though, the NZ Herald ran a poll asking who would win the WC in 2011 and 59% of Kiwis polled said the ABs, SA was next with 17%, so at least this WC is going to start like most others – with the ABs having huge pressure on them.
Hammer said | March 15th 2010 @ 11:47am | Report comment
“for the first time in a long while, the Wallabies will have more depth in every position than the All Blacks.” … the good old aussie overhype appears yet again …. just like how last years tri-nations was going to bethe closest, most competitive ever … love it
ricardo said | March 15th 2010 @ 12:21pm | Report comment
the wallabies have won two world cups..a third one is not far off the cards
Hammer said | March 15th 2010 @ 12:34pm | Report comment
And that hypothesis is based on what exactly
Jim said | March 15th 2010 @ 12:45pm | Report comment
Because they won 1991, lost 1995, won 1999, lost 2003, lost 2007 so therefore they are over-due…
Boks won’t winbecause they’re sequence goes lose 2 win1 i.e. win 1995, lose 1999, lose 2003, win 2007.
ABs are an unknown because their sequence has restarted yet…
Hammer said | March 15th 2010 @ 1:36pm | Report comment
Ah I see … very rational
ricardo said | March 15th 2010 @ 4:29pm | Report comment
if australia had done it twice..it can do it again..they certainly will have the players who can do it..
Troy said | March 15th 2010 @ 10:29am | Report comment
My 2 cents:-
QF1 – Au v Wales
QF2 – Arg v France
QF3 – SA v Ireland
QF4 – NZ v Eng
SF1 – AU v France
SF2 – SA v NZ
Final – AU v NZ
That’s in my bubble anyway…
Brett McKay said | March 15th 2010 @ 11:41am | Report comment
I’d expect the ABs to win the Final by forfeit – it sounds like getting a hotel room in NZ during the RWC is going to be harder than finding a needle in a pile of needles….
Lee said | March 15th 2010 @ 11:51am | Report comment
Yeah, they did a thing on TV the other night about how much people were looking at renting their houses out for during the World Cup, and we are now considering it…even if we did it for a ‘cheap’ price(compared to what others are charging), it would still pay the mortgage for a couple of months…ridiculous, but no one is above it, I have family in South Africa who say that the prices for the Football World Cup are going to be just as bad.
Brett McKay said | March 15th 2010 @ 12:09pm | Report comment
Lee, a mate of mine and I entertained the thought of us and our better halves going over for the Wallaby pool games, but that’s pretty much gone by the wayside, partly because of prices, but mostly because you needed to have started making arrangements in January….
Lee said | March 15th 2010 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
I am going to try and get to a few Boks games by sleeping on a friends couch in Wellington but am holding out hope that I can somehow get a hand on a ticket for the final – even though the reported price is going to be NZ$800, it is a once in a life time thing….
TembaVJ said | March 15th 2010 @ 11:53am | Report comment
HAHAHA this happens every time… Again everyone expects the AB’s will be victorious as they are without a doubt the best and always will be the best of the best of the best rugby team.
If they make it past France and don’t get poisoned by the ghost of xmas past for the final…if Dan Carter learns how to drop kick, McCaw learns how to un strap the lads choke chains in the desperate moments…. Sure maybe they can win the 2011 RWC.
Ill tell you what, I won’t be betting on the AB’s. The Argies won’t make it far this time.
If the politician can stay out of the sport and Peter De Villiers can keep from going koo-koo nuts and make an arse of the African continent, then ill say South Africa is most likely to take it.
We will have our answer this year, who ever wins the 3N will be most likely to win the big games next year.
ohtani's jacket said | March 15th 2010 @ 3:45pm | Report comment
The winner of the Tri-Nations in a World Cup year (or the year proceeding it) has never gone on to win the Cup.
Personally, I’m looking forward to a bit of home cooking. The Boks getting screwed would be marvellous. Maybe we can injure Smit’s groin again.
Ben J said | March 15th 2010 @ 7:45pm | Report comment
I think Smit is so knackered he will injure his groin just getting out of bed, no there are better players than him and the quicker they realise that the better. 2007 and 2011 is a long way apart.
I would love the Boks to win…but we have to be realistic. This is a World Cup IN New Zealand…there is no way the All Blacks can lise this one…is there?
ohtani's jacket said | March 15th 2010 @ 8:47pm | Report comment
Where there’s a way, there’s an All Blacks’ side.
Ben J said | March 15th 2010 @ 8:58pm | Report comment
It does not matter one iota what team the AB’s select, as long as they have a fit Carter and McCaw on the teamsheet they should be favourites.
ohtani's jacket said | March 15th 2010 @ 9:28pm | Report comment
No favourites tag, please.
pothale said | March 15th 2010 @ 9:52pm | Report comment
Too late, OJ. You have it now. No going back.
If New Zealand can’t win the WC on their home turf, with the rugby laws the way they want them, and only home fans able to afford filling the stadia, and a dozen waitresses called Suzie available for hire in a host of cities, they should give up now.
ohtani's jacket said | March 16th 2010 @ 12:28am | Report comment
No, no, no… Ireland are favourites.
pothale said | March 16th 2010 @ 4:26am | Report comment
For once, we all know this not to be true. Even me.
Tifosi said | March 15th 2010 @ 3:51pm | Report comment
New Zealand Hotels!!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-sport/nz-accuse-aussies-of-price-beat-up-20100312-q2gk.html
Ziontrain said | March 15th 2010 @ 3:52pm | Report comment
“Wallabies have more depth in every position than the AB’s”…that one is a beauty
Ben J said | March 15th 2010 @ 5:02pm | Report comment
The Boks are a good Finals team having won 2 of the 4 they played in so if you forget about what happens in between World Cups it could be the Boks again. They seem to have good depth in most positions with quite a few fringe players doing well in the S14 at the moment. The Stormers pack only have Bekker and Burger who are Springboks and they have been in good form against quality sides.I also like the way Flip van der Merwe is pushing for the number 4 lock position at the Bulls, a position that has been Bakkies Bothas domain for years. The Bulls and Stormers scrums are holding up nicely and me thinks it could be the end of John Smit at prop if they continue their form.
nicksa said | March 15th 2010 @ 6:16pm | Report comment
Aus, Nz, Sa and france are the only teams who have what it takes to win 2011. To be honest though, i think sa will take this world cup… At the moment they are in a leauge of their own. I just hope PDV makes the right decisions on player selections because he tends to be very biased. aus i believe need more time to develope as a team, nz seem like they need to rebuild their squad and france could do it with some luck but i don’t think they have what it takes to beat the SH team on consecutive week ends.
Ben J said | March 15th 2010 @ 6:21pm | Report comment
SA have the players no doubt about that, how is that young winger of the Bulls, Gerhard van den Heever wo scored a beautie against the Highlanders? They have the gameplan for Finals, a Bulls blueprint to absorb whatever the opposition has to give and then grind out a win. Ahh one can only dream.
Sam said | March 15th 2010 @ 6:31pm | Report comment
The Bulls don’t seem to be grinding out any wins lately!