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Queensland Reds player Digby Ione breaks through. AAP Image/Dave Hunt
Five rounds into the final Super14 season and the Reds are in sixth spot, although with a bye coming up, they will probably fall behind the Tahs (assuming the Tahs beat the Force). After that, there is a three week trip to South Africa, but with two winnable games against the Lions and Cheetahs.
So what has season 2010 meant so far for the Reds in light of the optimistic preview some months back?
Unfortunately, there was last-minute heartbreaking loss to the Tahs that the Reds simply should have won. And a refusal to play wet weather rugby in the wet against the Blues was also costly. The Reds were in front at halftime in both games, and if they had held onto that lead, they would be 5 from 5 and finals-bound.
Still, it’s a promising start, and hopefully as much can be learned from the losses as from victories.
The Reds have stood up across the park, forwards and backs. Some players I maligned have come good (the Faingaas and Davies), and no one has been a disappointment (except for those players who might leave, but that’s an issue for another day).
McKenzie has put some spine into the forwards, and the backs are revelling behind a competitive pack, and have rediscovered the joys of defence.
The Good
Saia Faingaa has made the most of his opportunities with an early injury to Hardman, and has improved dramatically on uninspiring performances last year.
His set piece work is steady, but he has been a vigorous defender and has worked well in the tight. The Reds lineout is good, at least with Van calling the shots.
Daley, Weeks and Holmes have all looked good in the front row, with Holmes able to play both sides, and in fact working over Woodcock a little in the Auckland match from THP.
Both Daley and Weeks have been good around the ground and good in defence, with Weekes making the transition to fully professional player and being both bigger and more mobile for it. The Reds scrum has been solid, but is not yet a weapon.
Still, this is an improvement on the last few years.
The second and back rows have been strong runners and good tacklers: Higgy is looking like a genuine Wallaby 6 option, and a trimmed down Houston has made a welcome return. Young Jake Schatz has impressed in his time on the park.
Daniel Braid has been extremely impressive, with the return to the older ruck rules suiting him well. Van and Byrnes have performed well – especially Van, who at 110 is looking fitter than ever – while Simmons has not disappointed in his brief time on the park.
The best of all is Genia and Cooper.
Genia has continued his good Wallaby form, and Cooper is the form Australian 10 at present, with sublime passing skills and a good kicking game. His ability to put a man into a gap is presently unsurpassed. With Faingaa next to him, any defensive issues have not been apparent: some tackles have been missed, but opposition attempts to target the channel have failed.
Anthony Faingaa, like his twin, has turned a corner this year. His jolting defence has been the basis of Reds turnover attack, and against the Force he has shown he can hit a gap too.
Of the Reds outside backs, all of Digby, Morahan, Davies and Hynes have speed to burn. Hynes is underrated: his clearing kick has been generally good, and his kick return is always dangerous. Chambers will be better for the time on the park, and Va’aulu has made a solid return from injury. This year, most of the Reds tries have come from the backline.
The Bad
Horwill is out injured, just as he was showing some good form at both lock, and, surprisingly, blindside flanker. He leaves a hole in the pack almost no matter how well his replacement performs.
Braid is in the final year of his contract, and despite entreaties to the ARU, it appears it cannot be renewed. Lei Tomiki has been unsighted, and Andrew Shaw has had one chance without impressing.
If one of Van or Byrnes goes down, the second row stocks look thin: Ezra Taylor or Higginbotham may be press-ganged into the engine room.
The Ugly
The Rebels.
Apparently Kingi, Byrnes, and Weeks are all moving south, with this being announced in the next few days. Its like 2005 all over again. Kingi, despite being a real talent, is probably the least loss of the three. Losing a second rower for 2011 with Van also probably retiring is a double blow, and Weeks is a solid THP of the sort that don’t grow on trees.
Then maybe Hynes is on the Rebels radar, and there is talk of Cooper heading West for some reason.
Up front, young James Slipper and Paul Alo-Emile may fill the gap in the next few years, but they are not ready for Super 14 yet. Dayna Edwards has been playing for the Academy, as has Jack Kennedy, so perhaps they will step up in the short term.
True tall timber is hard to come by: perhaps MMM or Heenan coming home would help, but this is unlikely.
All in all, it has been a long road for Reds fans over the last decade. Hopefully the light at the end of the tunnel is not a goods train.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.