Why can’t Collingwood win the flag?

 
Michael DiFabrizio Columnist

By , 23 Mar 2010 Michael DiFabrizio is a Roar Expert

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Luke Ball of Collingwood in action during a Collingwood Magpies training session at Gosch's Paddock in Melbourne. Slattery Images

Luke Ball of Collingwood in action during a Collingwood Magpies training session at Gosch's Paddock in Melbourne. Slattery Images

The hype surrounding the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda is justified considering how close they got last year and their NAB Cup form. But what about the other side to finish top four and back it up with a strong pre-season?

If recent weeks are anything to go by, Collingwood deserve to be placed right up there.

Following their one-point loss to the Saints in the first round of the NAB Cup, the Pies went on to post solid wins in their next two games, admittedly against an injury-hit Adelaide and Richmond.

But the most telling sign of a strong pre-season came a week later in the form of an 87-point shellacking of Port Adelaide. Up until that point, Port were having a pretty decent pre-season themselves, with an intense training program – as outlined here on The Roar by defender Troy Chaplin – and a strong NAB Cup showing that almost saw them sneak into the final.

At the end of four weeks of pre-season games, Collingwood (at 144.6%) finished with the highest percentage of all clubs, well above even the Bulldogs (135.3%).

The best part is their new additions – the single most important thing separating this year’s team from last year’s – have slotted in perfectly. Luke Ball has seen plenty of the ball and is by all reports flourishing at his new club. We’ve been given no reason to think Darren Jolly isn’t the ideal fit either.

So where’s the hype? The predictions of a premiership? The flood of back page stories?

The Western Bulldogs have gotten all that just by bringing in one void-filling player. Collingwood have brought in two! Surely they are right up there on everyone’s crystal ball ladders?

Surprisingly, that’s not the case. In the season preview magazines put out by the Herald Sun and The Age, across both publications only one expert tipped the Pies to take the flag. Many, including Robert Walls, Garry Lyon and Kevin Sheedy, tipped them to miss the top four altogether.

“Honest, competitive, disciplined, good and, at times, very good, but still short of the elite. This not only describes the Magpies, but also their two high-profile recruits, Darren Jolly and Luke Ball,” Lyon wrote.

The comments don’t seem to stack up. Yes, the midfield was the Pies’ biggest criticism at the business end of last season. With Scott Pendlebury out injured, they struggled to match it with the star-studded midfields of St Kilda and Geelong.

But with Ball joining a fit Pendlebury and prolific ball winner Dane Swan – and with one of the competition’s best ruckmen in Jolly setting them up – the gap between the Pies and the others has become far shorter. Assuming those guys are fully fit, it’s going to be much less of an issue in 2010, if it’ll be one at all.

The other major criticism of the Magpies is their key forwards – or lack thereof, if you listen to some opinions.

This is an issue, but perhaps not quite as much of one as you’d be led to believe. Travis Cloke and John Anthony mightn’t be in the same league as Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke, but then again, neither were Cameron Mooney and Tom Hawkins last year, when they spearheaded Geelong’s attack.

In fact, despite Mooney having a disastrous year accuracy-wise and Hawkins showing his inexperience far too often, the pair still put together a decent finals campaign and even managed to comfortably outscore the Riewoldt-Koschitzke combo on grand final day.

The lesson here is that it is possible to get by with a pair of serviceable key forwards.

Even then, the fact Anthony kicked 50 goals last year – in just his second season – is a pretty good sign. Cloke did have a pretty off year, but he might not be able to get away with that this year. With the side’s bolstered ruck stocks, many see Josh Fraser reinventing himself as a forward. They’ve got some young key position talent worth keeping an eye on too.

In fact, when it comes to key forwards, the Pies do seem far better off than last year, when Anthony Rocca’s return from the VFL was considered an important step on the road to a premiership.

Despite the hype being focused elsewhere, Collingwood don’t seem out of place as a premiership tip. So, on the eve of the 2010 season, I’m happy to anoint them as mine.

Follow Michael on twitter @mdifabrizio
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