Need help with your Super 14 tips? Don’t we all
By Spiro Zavos, 1 Apr 2010 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
- Tagged:
- Blues, Bulls, Chiefs, Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Waratahs
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Reds players celebrate their win against the Chiefs in a Super 14 Rugby match. AAP Image/NZPA, Wayne Drought
Every week, the ARU’s Matt McIlraith puts out a detailed preview of the upcoming round of Super 14 matches. As someone who is not travelling particularly well in The Roar’s tipping competition, and who has, therefore, a sympathy for fellow sufferers, I’ve picked out the best of this week’s insights.
The hope is that we’ll all make better choices this round.
The fear is, though, that the more information we have, the more likely it is some of us (I’m talking about myself here) will lose any clarity we might have had on the round.
A little knowledge is supposed to be a dangerous thing. But there is the possibility that too much knowledge might be even more dangerous.
Anyway, here goes …
Hurricanes Vs Crusaders, Wellington: referee Jonathan Kaplan (RSA)
The Hurricanes are facing an unprecedented five losses in a row in a season. The Hurricanes have won only 4 of 19 contests between the two teams, and 2 out of 11 since Colin Cooper has been coach. The Crusaders have won 11 times and lost once after coming off a bye.
Western Force Vs Stormers at Perth: referee Stuart Dickinson (A)
The Western Force are without a win this season. But David Pocock, Matt Dunning, Brett Sheehan and possibly Richard Brown are scheduled to be coming back from injury. The Western Force have won only 11 of their 30 home matches. The Stormers lost 4 out of their 5 overseas matches last season, and are coming off a bye. The Western Force led the Bulls 12 -10 at half-time last week.
Blues Vs Bulls at Auckland: referee Craig Joubert (RSA)
The Bulls have won 12 Super 14 matches in a row. The Bulls have never defeated the Blues at Eden Park in eight previous attempts. The Bulls victory over the Western Force was only coach Frans Ludeke’s 3 win from 19 matches in Australia and New Zealand. Pat Lam, the coach of the Blues, has presided over only 4 wins out of 9 matches at home.
Chiefs Vs Highlanders at Mount Maunganui: referee Marius Jonker (RSA)
The Chiefs have won their last 6 matches against the Highlanders. The Highlanders have only won two matches this season. In their last win against the Lions they scored three tries and conceded five.
NSW Waratahs Vs Cheetahs at Sydney: referee Keith Brown (NZ)
In their four years in Super Rugby, the Cheetahs are yet to win a match in Australia or New Zealand. But historically the Cheetahs have been at their most effective on tour on their first match. The Waratahs have won 26 out of 33 home matches against South African sides.
Sharks Vs Queensland Reds at Durban: Chris Pollock (NZ)
Last weekend’s victory over the Cheetahs stopped a run of seven losses by the Reds in South Africa. The Reds who have been in South Africa for several weeks played last Friday and will enjoy a longer preparation than the Sharks who have had to travel back to Durban from Wellington. The Sharks lost the first three matches of their Australian and New Zealand tour, and then won the last two matches. Just to confuse matters even more, the preview gives the table in 2009 at the end of the seventh round. The top eight teams were: Sharks (26), Waratahs (23), Chiefs (22), Bulls (22), Hurricanes (20), Highlanders (18), Crusaders (18), Blues (18).
The Bulls, Chiefs, Hurricanes and Crusaders made the final four.
Now that all this is cleared up (only joking!), I’m going to put in my picks.
I think.
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andy shearer said | April 1st 2010 @ 3:51am | Report comment
This is great info for trying to put some science and logic into your super 14 tipping. Definately appears to be a quicker method than analysing the numeralogy and star charts for each of the players and coaches – then calculating the better projected outcomes.
Spiro – any chance of revealing how to get my hands on Matt’s weekly stats (for future rounds that my numeralogy / astrology charts are inconclusive).
cheers,
a
LeftArmSpinner said | April 1st 2010 @ 6:44am | Report comment
Spiro, check out the bookies. they are the ones with the most skin in the game……………..
Brett McKay said | April 1st 2010 @ 8:05am | Report comment
well now I have less idea than I did before…
PB said | April 1st 2010 @ 8:05am | Report comment
Regarding Round 7 2009,
2008 is a better year to make a round to round comparison with. The ridiculous nature of the Super 14 draw has the same season repeating itself every second year. The whole comp should be redrawn in 2 year cycles. If it was a sport, not a business.
I think 2008 was also the year the draw was changed to make the byes and travel favour the South Africans, a factor in their improved performances.
Troy said | April 1st 2010 @ 8:37am | Report comment
The only one I can’t decide on is the Red v Sharks game…
TembaVJ said | April 1st 2010 @ 9:18am | Report comment
This will be a weekend of upsets…
ohtani's jacket said | April 1st 2010 @ 9:49am | Report comment
Quick, everybody pick the favourite!
Winston said | April 1st 2010 @ 12:00pm | Report comment
Seems to have beeen a season of upsets except for the Bulls.
Crashy said | April 1st 2010 @ 9:48am | Report comment
if you are referring to the Cheetahs winning in Sydney Temba? good luck champ
DaMan3000 said | April 1st 2010 @ 9:56am | Report comment
Go Highlanders?
Winston said | April 1st 2010 @ 11:59am | Report comment
I’m picking the Bulls winning streak to come to an end.
The Reds game will be interesting.
Troy said | April 1st 2010 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
Yep I’m also tipping the Blues to flip the Dutchies..
titus said | April 1st 2010 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
I think less knowledge is sometimes a good thing. Up to a point, my picks are just as good as the so called experts. Mind you, my NRL picks are hopeless where there are upsets galore. But that’s the salary cap kicking in. My Super 14 picks are better except for the Canes. I’m picking them to win this weekend.
Sports betting is like playing the sharemarket. There are experts who can analyse till the cows come home and then there’s average punters like me who sometimes only has the minimum required knowledge to make an intelligent call. And my choices are by and large just as successful as their’s. I think there’s definitlely a point of diminishing returns as knowledge increases.
Match of the round: Bulls vs Reds