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Preview of AFL Round 4 games

15th April, 2010
2

Preview of AFL round four games (all times local).

FRIDAY, April 16
WEST COAST v ESSENDON at Subiaco 6.40pm
Head to head: West Coast 17 Essendon 22 Drawn 0
Last time: West Coast 14.11 (95) bt Essendon 10.8 (69) R18, 2009, Subiaco
TAB Sportsbet: West Coast $1.55 Essendon $2.40
Centrebet: West Coast $1.58 Essendon $2.39

If Essendon travel to Perth with the same determination to attack at all costs, as they did against Carlton, then the Eagles might get taken by surprise early on. Bombers coach Matthew Knights has vowed to continue with his pro-active style of fast, running aggressive play and last week, after a run of two outs, it paid off. That will only boost the confidence of the side, knowing their game plan is fundamentally sound. The return of Michael Hurley from an indiscretion earlier in the year which saw him star in the reserves and earn a recall will only lift the attack. The Eagles face a pressure match certainly. If they find themselves 0-4 down it will be hard to see them having any part in the finals. Much relies on Daniel Kerr improving to win as many possessions as possible in the midfield, but he will need more support this time.

Key: The Eagles’ record in Melbourne is in stark contrast to its stats at home at Subiaco. The home edge may help them make a decent contest of it.

Tip: Essendon by 15 points.

SATURDAY, April 17
NORTH MELBOURNE v SYDNEY at Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Head to head: North Melbourne 71 Sydney 76 Drawn 1
Last time: Sydney 15.10 (100) bt North Melbourne 13.7 (85) R14, 2009, SCG.
TAB Sportsbet: North Melbourne $2.45 Sydney $1.52
Centrebet: North Melbourne $2.52 Sydney $1.53

It was no great accolade for the Kangaroos to beat ragged West Coast last week but it did get the side on the board and give the players some self-belief as well as some confidence that Brad Scott’s long-term plan will eventually pay off, as he insists. He will have been delighted by the extraordinary fightback of skipper Brent Harvey who recognised a miserable earlier performance and responded with 44 possessions (he had five the week before). But the Swans will present a test of a vastly different kind. Sydney will keep a close eye on Harvey, they have made a hard and fast start to the season and are determined to keep the flow moving.

Key: Sydney’s harder, more experienced bodies should be a handful for some of North’s promising but still young players. Ex-Lion forward Daniel Bradshaw is already proving his value and will have to be contained somehow after top-scoring with four goals against the Tigers last week.

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Tip: Sydney by 35 points.

ADELAIDE v CARLTON at AAMI Stadium 3.10pm
Head to head: Adelaide 14 Carlton 14 Drawn 0
Last time: Adelaide 27.14 (176) bt Carlton 16.8 (104) R22, 2009, Etihad.
TAB Sportsbet: Adelaide $1.95 Carlton $1.85
Centrebet: Adelaide $1.95 Carlton $1.86

Adelaide go into this game in a perilous situation – a 0-3 start to the season, rebounding from a defeat to wooden spooners Melbourne and suffering from a critical spate of injuries. Carlton are somewhat better off – at least they have captain Chris Judd back from suspension and, match-winner that he is, he could be the difference. The Blues were despondent after yet another loss to Essendon and if they glance at the past record – they have lost their past four in succession to the Crows, their mood won’t improve. Theoretically the Blues should be favourites – they have a high-profile list, while Adelaide are struggling to patch up a depleted side, but they will need some inspiration.

Key: Adelaide are at home, an important advantage and know that it has been 35 years since a side came back from a 0-4 start to the year to make the finals. Perhaps the desperation factor will get them over the line.

Tip: Adelaide by 15 points.

COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN at the MCG, 7.10pm
Head to head: Collingwood 93 Hawthorn 55 Drawn 0
Last time: Hawthorn 18.13 (121) bt Collingwood 11.10 (76) R16, 2009, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Collingwood $1.58 Hawthorn $2.30
Centrebet: Collingwood $1.60 Hawthorn $2.35

Collingwood won their first two, yet lost last Friday night to St Kilda, a result that on the surface would seem forgivable. But it was the manner of the Magpies’ defeat that smarted, as they went goalless after half-time and could not match the desperation of the depleted Saints. Add Mick Malthouse’s ugly spat with Stephen Milne, and Collingwood will plenty to avenge against the Hawks, who they have not beaten since 2006. Hawthorn have been overrun by Geelong and the Bulldogs in the past two games, and have star forward Lance Franklin suspended. A third successive loss will tighten the pressure on the brown and gold, but they do draw inspiration from Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis and Jordan Roughead, who have all relished playing the Pies in recent times. Franklin has also, and his absence shifts the balance Collingwood’s way.

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Key: Staying cool. Can Collingwood’s forwards find their range and kick straight? Can they put the clamps on Hodge, the Hawks’ talisman? And will Malthouse take the long route getting to the quarter-time huddle and retain his composure?

Tip: Collingwood by 11 points.

BRISBANE v WESTERN BULLDOGS at the Gabba, 7.10pm
Head to head: Brisbane 12 Western Bulldogs 10 Drawn 0
Last time: Western Bulldogs 16.11 (107) bt Brisbane 8.8 (56) 2SF, 2009, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $1.95 Western Bulldogs $1.85
Centrebet: Brisbane $1.99 Western Bulldogs $1.83

Visiting the Gabba will hold no fears for the Bulldogs, who have won four of their past five games in Brisbane, where they have often burned off the Lions with their run. That was also the case in their last meeting, in last year’s finals, although Brisbane were on their last legs after posting a comeback win the previous week. This time around the Lions are out to announce themselves a genuine flag chance after a great start to the season, after three wins. The Bulldogs have won their past two, but neither result has impressed coach Rodney Eade. He was critical of the Doggies’ kicking and wasted chances in round two and was not happy with some decision-making in last Sunday’s win over Hawthorn. The Bulldogs will need to be closer to the top of their game to pip the Lions.

Key: Both sides move the ball well, so it will be at the ends where this one is decided. Lions Jonathan Brown and Brendan Fevola have booted 26 goals between them in three games. Barry Hall is fresh from six against the Hawks but Jason Akermanis (hamstring) will miss the clash against his old side.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by eight points.

SUNDAY, April 18
RICHMOND v MELBOURNE at the MCG, 1.10pm
Head to head: Richmond 99 Melbourne 76 Drawn 2
Last time: Richmond 12.14 (86) bt Melbourne 12.10 (82) R18, 2009, MCG.
TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $3.50 Melbourne $1.28
Centrebet: Richmond $3.64 Melbourne $1.29

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It’s remarkable that a team that has won consecutive wooden spoons could be as firm a favourite as the Demons. That says something about the improved form Melbourne have shown in the past two rounds, in falling by a point to Collingwood then downing an injury-ravaged Adelaide. But it says even more about just how badly the Tigers are struggling. Fielding an inexperienced side under new coach Damien Hardwick, they have been blown away in all of their matches so far. That was before this week’s self-inflicted damage of suspending four players for irresponsible post-match behaviour last weekend in the team hotel. Three of those – Daniel Connors, Luke McGuane and Dean Polo – have been playing in defence. With skipper Chris Newman, another backman, also likely to miss Sunday’s MCG clash with a hamstring injury, their defence is looking even more vulnerable than usual. That is good news for a Demons side which has defended and tackled hard in the past two rounds, but is yet to rack up a big total. This could be their chance.

Key: The biggest worry for Melbourne could be if the rare experience of entering a match as hot favourites causes their intensity to slip slightly. The Tigers should at least be fired up given the scrutiny they are under.

Tip: Melbourne by 25 points.

GEELONG v PORT ADELAIDE at Skilled Stadium 2.10pm
Head to Head: Geelong 11 Port Adelaide 8 Drawn 1
Last time: Geelong 18.14 (122) bt Port Adelaide 13.10 (88) R13, 2009, Skilled Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.12 Port Adelaide $5.75
Centrebet: Geelong $1.13 Port Adelaide $6.05

The Cats will be keen to prove that being overrun by Fremantle in the last term at Subiaco last weekend was just an aberration, and not a sign that their renowned mental and physical toughness has slipped below the level that has made them the benchmark in the past three seasons. They had some excuses against the Dockers, missing several stars including their best ruckman, Brad Ottens, best tall forward, Cameron Mooney, and best defender, Matthew Scarlett. They were also coming off a gruelling clash against Hawthorn six days earlier, which helps explain why they struggled to go the distance with the Dockers. But it will be a major surprise if they suffer a second straight loss, particularly at Skilled Stadium, where they last tasted defeat in 2007. That was against Port Adelaide, but a month later they gave the Power the mother of all grand final hidings and have not lost to them since.

Key: With some stars back from injury and suspension, the Cats on the rebound should have plenty of motivation and too much class for the Power.

Tip: Geelong by 35 points.

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ST KILDA v FREMANTLE at Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Head to Head: St Kilda 11 Fremantle 11 Drawn 0
Last time: St Kilda 17.9 (111) bt Fremantle 4.4 (29) R4, 2009, Etihad
TAB Sportsbet: St Kilda $1.28 Fremantle $3.50
Centrebet: St Kilda $1.30 Fremantle $3.55

This match will be fascinating, and not just because it pits against each other two of the three remaining undefeated sides. Both the Saints and Fremantle face significant questions, which this clash should help answer. For the Saints, the obvious query is just how much will the absence of their skipper and best player Nick Riewoldt after hamstring surgery hurt them. That looms even larger this round as fellow key forward Justin Koschitzke serves the final game of a three-match suspension. The Dockers went a long way to shaking off their long-term image as underachievers when they knocked off reigning premiers Geelong at Subiaco last round. But this match will show whether that was just a one-off, or whether they are really ready to consistently mix it with the AFL’s best. It will be an extremely positive sign if they can down the Saints, given the rarity with which they have won in Melbourne throughout their history.

Key: In Aaron Sandilands and Matthew Pavlich, Fremantle have two stars who can shape matches as much as any players in the competition, as they showed against the Cats. If the Saints can quell their influence – no easy task – they should win.

Tip: St Kilda by 10 points.

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