Bulls favourites, but many nipping at heels
Roar Pro By kynang, 20 Apr 2010 kynang is a Roar Pro
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- Blues, Bulls, Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Waratahs
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As the final Super 14 season comes down to the wire, ten teams still technically have a shot at qualification. The Chiefs, Sharks and Hurricanes all mathematically have a shot – with the Sharks the best positioned to succeed, given they play only teams above them (their victories ensure no points for the leaders).
This is a two edged sword, however, as playing the top teams also means the Sharks have little hope of securing five points from every remaining fixture – the Stormers and Bulls in particular do not look particularly beatable … the Stormers haven’t given up four tries yet this tournament.
The Blues are looking very well placed all the way down in seventh place.
They have the easiest run in, with only the Sharks game likely to pose a threat. If they win that, they really will be serious contenders. They certainly have the ability – their dismantling of the Bulls as awesome to behold.
The Brumbies have a hard road to the finals.
They face the Waratahs, Reds and Crusaders. Their lack of bonus points is haunting them already. Like the Sharks though, the plus side is that their tough opponents sit ahead of them, and the Brumbies control their own fate in knocking them down a notch.
The Waratahs have a good shot at victory in all their remaining matches – away games against the Highlanders and Chiefs shouldn’t pose too many problems – setting them up for another semi-final, possibly even a home one, given that the Stormers, Bulls and Crusaders all have to play each other still.
The Reds? They’re still a dark horse.
They were magnificent against the Bulls, but there’s still a lingering doubt they can string enough wins together. Probably just a mental holdover from previous seasons.
Their game against the Stormers this week will be very telling – they’re the form teams currently, and playing the most exciting and pragmatic rugby of the tournament.
They look the best coached teams. It should be an awesome spectacle!
The Stormers?
Well, they’ve really pulled it together. I had my doubts at the start of the season, but now I am wondering who will stop them.
They play the Reds and Sharks away, and the Bulls and Crusaders at home – probably the hardest run of any team. I back them to win every game, though, but my fear then is that come semi-final time, they’ll be burnt out.
They could finish top of the log though, assuming they can mentally overcome their Bulls bogey.
The Bulls must still be the favorites.
They play the Lions and then have two home games, which they’re unlikely to lose, given their record at Loftus.
However, the South African government has thrown an interesting wrench into the works – the Bulls may not be allowed to play at Loftus given that the surface needs to be prepared for FIFA 2010.
Ripping home advantage from them could create a massive stumbling block, particularly given the fatigue the squad is showing. Their final game against the Stormers should be for the right for a home final, assuming Soweto is as kind a home as Pretoria.
The Crusaders should enjoy their stay at number one for one more week, and then it will be all over.
They’ll scrape in 3rd or 4th, because there is no way they are going to South Africa to beat the Bulls and Stormers. The Bulls know how to crush them, and will, and the Stormers look invincible currently – sort of like the Crusaders under Robbie Deans.
They qualify, but they’ll be making a long flight back to South Africa for a semi-final, and with that there road should end.
Crusaders:
Current position: First
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W W D W W
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Western Force, away
30 April: v Stormers, away
7 May: v Bulls, away
14 May: v Brumbies, homeBulls:
Current position: Second
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W W L W L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Lions, home
1 May: v Sharks, home
7 May: v Crusaders, home
15 May: v Stormers, awayStormers:
Current position: Third
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W W L W W
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Reds, away
30 April: v Crusaders, home
8 May: v Sharks, away
15 May: v Bulls, homeReds:
Current position: Fourth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 11th
Current form (last six games): W W W L W W
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Stormers, home
1 May: v Brumbies, away
7 May: v Hurricanes, away
15 May: v Highlanders, homeWaratahs:
Current position: Fifth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 12th
Current form (last six games): W W W W W L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Brumbies, home
30 April: v Highlanders, away
8 May: v Chiefs, away
14 May: v Hurricanes, homeBrumbies:
Current position: Sixth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 13th
Current form (last six games): W W L W W L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Waratahs, away
1 May: v Reds, home
8 May: v Highlanders, home
14 May: v Crusaders, awayBlues:
Current position: Seventh
Best possible finish:First
Worst possible finish: 13th
Current form (last six games): L W L W L W
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Sharks, away
1 May: v Cheetahs, away
8 May: v Lions, away
15 May: v Chiefs, homeHurricanes:
Current position: Eighth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L L D W
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Highlanders, away
1 May: v Chiefs, home
7 May: v Reds, home
14 May: v Waratahs, awaySharks:
Current position: Ninth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L W W W W
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Blues,home
1 May: v Bulls, away
8 May: v Stormers, home
14 May: v Western Force, homeChiefs:
Current position: 10th
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L W L L
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Cheetahs, home
1 May: v Hurricanes, away
8 May: v Waratahs, home
15 May: v Blues, awayHighlanders:
Current position: 11th
Best possible finish: Fourth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L W L L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Hurricanes, home
30 April: v Waratahs, home
8 May: v Brumbies, away
15 May: v Reds, awayForce:
Current position: 12th
Best possible finish:Fifth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L W W L
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Crusaders, home
1 May: v Lions, away
8 May: v Cheetahs, away
14 May: v Sharks, awayCheetahs:
Current position: 13th
Best possible finish: Sixth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): W L L L L L
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Chiefs, away
1 May: v Blues, home
8 May: v Western Force, home
15 May: v Lions, homeLions:
Current position: 14th
Best possible finish: Eighth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L L L L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Bulls,away
1 May: v Western Force, home
8 May: v Blues, home
15 May: v Cheetahs, away
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The Crowd Says (9) | Page 1 of Comments
Have Your Say
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- Blues, Bulls, Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Waratahs
April 20th 2010 @ 9:04am
dunc said | April 20th 2010 @ 9:04am | Report comment
Great post kynang!
thanks for all the information! What a cracker end to the season and totally agree that the Stormers and the Reds are the form teams, though the Bulls are in the box seat.
Hailing from across the ditch, I am hoping the Blues have a strong finish! is it possible though that the Bulls and the Stormers end up in the final? How will the aussies and kiwis handle that?
April 20th 2010 @ 10:22am
inkosi said | April 20th 2010 @ 10:22am | Report comment
Shaping up to be a cracker few weeks…I would have said though that the Stormers are the in Form SA side and would tip them to roll the Bulls. They’re playing the same style of rugby as the Reds but have (stastically) better defence. The Reds missed out on three or four tries against the Bulls which you would think the Stormers would have put away. Still they do have tougher opposition than the Bulls so who knows….
Never discount the Crusaders though, not even if they’re playing in SA. If anyone can do it …they can, just wait till they get out of third gear!
April 20th 2010 @ 10:40am
Brett McKay said | April 20th 2010 @ 10:40am | Report comment
it’s a rough month ahead when mid-table teams can still finish first or last!!
April 20th 2010 @ 10:57am
Hayden said | April 20th 2010 @ 10:57am | Report comment
It’s hard to see past the Stormers and Bulls in the final. The Crusaders have a tough trip ahead of them, and the Blues have the talent but not the consistency, same with the Canes, although they have an easier run in. The Reds are the feel good team of the tournament, I hope they win if the Blues don’t, while I hope the Brumbies continue to crash and burn. Any team that employs that jerk Harrison deserves whatever misfortune comes to them.
Dream final, Reds vs Blues, Blues to win.
April 20th 2010 @ 11:06am
Jervois said | April 20th 2010 @ 11:06am | Report comment
I think it’s going to be a matter of which SA team hosts the final. I think it unlikely that The Crusaders will finish top but they could go in as number two. I’m picking the Storm/ Bulls to come in first and third and the 4th place is anyone’s guess Hopefully it will be the Tahs but I won’t hold my Breath
April 20th 2010 @ 2:37pm
warrenexpatinnz said | April 20th 2010 @ 2:37pm | Report comment
Picking the Stormers to be top of the table with the Bulls second but unsure of third or fourth until this weekends games as not sure the Crusaders will get maximum points and may just get taken by a hopefully energetic Force side (heart speaking there) and then taking on the ‘top two’ on their turf will be a tough ask.
On paper the Stormers should beat the Reds this week but so should have the Bulls last weekend. Big crowd may get the Reds over the line but don’t believe any more than a try will seperate them at the end.
I have booked my big screen tv from the teenagers this weekend for that game but I did that last weekend for the Bulls game and was relegated to the kids lounge room as American Idol (a taped version I add) was more important for my wife and her mother to watch (teenagers out with the taxi called dad having to pick up at halftime), boss at work but certainly not at home.
April 20th 2010 @ 2:51pm
ohtani's jacket said | April 20th 2010 @ 2:51pm | Report comment
If the Stormers play like they did against the Chiefs — and let’s face it, a lot of teams have looked good against the Chiefs in recent weeks — then they’ll be impossible to stop. Anyone who watched Burger and Bekker having a lark in Hamilton will attest to that.
Nevertheless, the Crusaders and Bulls both have the championship pedigree to finish in the top two. A lot of people are writing the Crusaders off but their pack is starting to assert itself. The backs are a bit iffy because they’re young and experienced at this level, but I think that pack will carry them into the semis.
I just hope the Reds make it.
April 20th 2010 @ 3:13pm
Spencer said | April 20th 2010 @ 3:13pm | Report comment
Stormers are being hyped, however they have the toughest final 4 matches: Reds, Crusdares, Sharks, Bulls. They have been picking low fruit for some time.
April 20th 2010 @ 3:57pm
warrenexpatinnz said | April 20th 2010 @ 3:57pm | Report comment
Spencer the Stormers are perhaps the most complete side at the moment and whether they are playing the lower sides the style in which they are playing and the skills evident throughout their squad highlights are very good side.
I always wondered who would take over Victor Matfields reign, Bekker is Matfield and Botha rolled into one, the stand out 5 of the comp by a country mile.
Foure (not sure spelling) is also showing what he is capable of being injury free and able to build on hios performances.
Think the Reds with another year or two of experience and there you have the Stormers. Would be my fav to take the title this far out with the Reds the obvious heart choice.