In a Super season, how are the Aussie teams faring?
By Brett McKay, 27 Apr 2010 Brett McKay is a Roar Expert
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A month into this year’s Super 14 season, I handed down my report card on the Australian teams. The Reds were a surprise early ratings leader at that time, followed by the Brumbies and Waratahs, who were both promising heaps and delivering moderately less. Then trailed the Force, who were in the middle of what I described as “a casualty list that would give some hospitals a good run”.
So with three weeks of the regular season and only a touch over a month of the last ever Super 14 to run, how do those ratings look now?
ACT Brumbies – 6th: 6 Wins, 4 Losses, 3 Bonus Points (last report: 6th, 3W 1L 0BPs, B+)
Oh, the horror.
Last report card I christened the Brumbies the Super Rugby equivalent of the St.George/Illawarra Dragons for their shared frustrations of supporters, but with a month to go the current form of the Dragons would be a very welcome addition to the Brumbies’ recent outings.
After the Hurricanes debacle, Andy Friend spoke of the players trying to play too individually; a fairly public spray from a coach. Sadly though, the lesson still hasn’t been learnt.
Against the Waratahs on Saturday night, and despite having the lion’s share of possession and territory stats, the Brumbies took opportunity-squandering to new levels.
Spiro Zavos’ pet hate, meaningless box-kicks from scrumhalves, was as abundant as it was infuriating. Any opportunities to attack – even three-on-two overlaps – were forfeited away in favour of useless, poorly executed nothing kicks to no-one in particular.
Mathematically, the Brumbies may still be in with a chance to make the finals, but it would be a brave pundit to say that would be fair reward for their last month’s rugby. The Brumbies get bumped down to a C, an average rank indicative of recent displays.
NSW Waratahs – 5th: 7W 3L 5BPs (LR: 10th, 2W 2L 1BP, C+/B-)
The Waratahs, as they have done all season, continue to linger up there or thereabouts. They rode the waves of media raptures after big wins over the Lions and Cheetahs, but then were quickly pegged back after a near-loss to the Force and defeat by the Crusaders.
While they still might be confusing fans with the various types of game plans they employ, the Waratahs are proving to be annoyingly effective. If their goal for 2010 was to play adaptive rugby, then you have to give them nothing but full credit, because they continue to feature well up the Super 14 table by continually changing their game based on who they’re opposing.
It mightn’t be pretty at times – Saturday night comes back to mind – but they’re taking the “play what’s in front of you” mantra to the extreme.
It was pleasing to see Berrick Barnes lead the ‘Tahs around with his effective kicking game against the Brumbies; no doubt it will be important for the Wallabies during the Tri-Nations. It’s difficult, too, to ignore the impressive form of loose forwards Dave Dennis and Ben Mowen, or lock Kane Douglas. All of them are young players with massive futures.
As much as this pains me, I have to upgrade the Waratahs to an A. It’s easy, fun even, to bag them at times, but it’s impossible to ignore a team that wins by making the most of their opportunities.
Queensland Reds – 4th: 7W 3L 6BPs (LR: 7th, 2W 2L 2BPs, A-)
The form of the Reds has been irresistible since the first report card, and calls for Queensland domination of the Wallabies are only going to get louder as they get closer to the finals.
The Sydney Morning Herald’s Australian team of the week after week 10 was just the Reds starting XV of that week, though it should be added the Waratahs had the bye. (Mind you, that hasn’t stopped the SMH picking Waratahs in the past.)
A week after triumphing over the Bulls in what has been described as one of the best games of Super rugby in years – to the point that a bullish ARU boss John O’Neill is intending to send a copy of the game to delegates ahead of the next big IRB summit in May – the Reds have now shown the competition they can win in the tight stuff too.
Their defensive effort in the last 25 minutes to hold onto their narrow lead over the Stormers was super impressive, and had Ewan McKenzie all over it.
Everything the Stormers threw at the Reds in the last quarter was repelled with intent and determination.
Moreover, they can still conjure a spectacular try, with Quade Cooper’s kick to the corner for a flying Will Chambers taking the young centre back to his days when the Melbourne Storm had the best backline money could buy.
The Reds are everyone’s favourite team. Even New South Welshmen are doing the unthinkable, and jumping on board a rapidly expanding bandwagon.
Better yet, Queenslanders themselves are back behind the Reds too, with a second successive bumper crowd cheering them home last Friday night.
There was a bit of disagreement with the mark I handed out in the last report card, but I bet there’s no argument about a richly deserved A+ now.
Western Force – 12th: 3W 7L 2BPs (LR: 14th, 0W 3L 0BPs, D)
Since starting the season in the worst possible form, with a string of losses and the aforementioned injury list, the Force have started creeping up the table in the back-half of the season.
Fuelled by key players returning from injury, the Force has relished their self-appointed “spoiler” role by accounting for the Stormers, giving both the Bulls and Waratahs a decent scare, and last Friday night’s hard-fought win over the Crusaders.
They’ll finish their season with three games in South Africa, and with their opponents all in the bottom half of the ladder, they could well sneak further up the table with a series of wins.
Whilst their season was essentially over before it ever got the chance to build, all is not lost for the Force in 2010.
The calibre of their young players coming through has been a highlight, and it’s fair to say we’ll see a lot more of Ben Whittaker, local product Justin Turner, Brumby-on-loan and line-break specialist Nathan Charles, and Luke Jones (albeit for the Melbourne Rebels next year).
The Force get a well-earned upgrade to C+ for this alone.
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April 27th 2010 @ 12:27pm
johnny-boy said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:27pm | Report comment
I don’t necessarily agree with the Reds inexperience fear (nor completely disagree). They are playing against the exact same players now that they will be playing in tests and doing just fine. The important thing will be if they’re allowed off the leash to express themselves and believe in themselves with the same enthusiasm they are showing at the Reds. I fear Deans will try and lead them back to the Crusaders tactics of relying on negative pressure to open up opportunities to counter attack at pace. Defensive attack, which rattles teams when their opposition has up til then been passive opponents. This is a NZ style.
The Australian style, being implemented so effectively by McKenzie and the Reds is offensive attack. Keep having a go here there and everywhere until the oppositions structures and brains get confused, then execute. Time will tell whether Deans has overstayed his welcome if he tries to take Australian rugby backwards.
April 27th 2010 @ 12:55pm
ohtani's jacket said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:55pm | Report comment
Well, it would certainly be a bold move. Something we don’t see enough of from international coaches this days.
I guess the better the Reds do in the remainder of the competition the more pressure there will be on Deans to include their players in the Test squad.
April 27th 2010 @ 3:58pm
Jiggles said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:58pm | Report comment
The only way these young reds players will get experience is through playing test matchs no other way around it. shocking but its true!
April 27th 2010 @ 12:55pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:55pm | Report comment
Johnny, the Crusaders “super-teams” of a few years back based their whole game around offensive attack though, so I’d like to think Aussie Rob will maintain the status quo and play the Qld game…
April 27th 2010 @ 12:48pm
Who Needs Melon said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:48pm | Report comment
My take…
For the past 4 years (2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009),…
The Brumbies have come 5th, 5th, 9th and 7th. Average is 6.5. They are currently coming 6th. Above average?
The Force have come 7th, 7th, 8th and 8th. Average is 7.5. They are currently coming 11th. Way below average.
The Waratahs have come 13th, 13th, 2nd and 4th. Average is 8th. So coming 5th they are well up on average… but below their past 2 years and the trend is not good.
The Reds have come last, last, 3rd last and 2nd last. Average is 13.25. So coming 4th they are doing outstandingly well.
Average for ALL aussie sides over the past 4 years is 8.8125. Average at the moment is 6.5.
Average for ALL aussie sides EXCEPT the Reds over the past 4 years is 7.3333…. and average of all aussie sides EXCEPT the Reds right now is 7.3333…. which means that the improvement in aussie sides is ENTIRELY down to the Reds.
April 27th 2010 @ 12:52pm
Peter K said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:52pm | Report comment
WNM NSW did not make the semis last year they were 5th not 4th so they are doing as well as last year.
April 27th 2010 @ 12:53pm
sheek said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:53pm | Report comment
Who Needs Melon,
Very average post…..chuckle, chuckle…..
April 27th 2010 @ 12:59pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:59pm | Report comment
Melon, there’s some outstanding logic there…
April 27th 2010 @ 1:06pm
BennO said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:06pm | Report comment
Great post WNM!
April 27th 2010 @ 1:15pm
Who Needs Melon said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:15pm | Report comment
Yes – I think I’m having trouble with my adding. Stay tuned for a correction.
April 27th 2010 @ 1:31pm
Who Needs Melon said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:31pm | Report comment
Bah! Timed out while typing my edit!!!
My numbers were slightly out – it’s the Cats->Lions thing – threw my alphabetiser out.
My stats came from here: http://www.super14.com/stats/2009/table-final.asp
Brumbies 6th is up on their average of 6.75.
Force 11th is down on their average of 9.25.
Waratahs 5th is up on their average of 5.5.
Reds 4th is up on their average of 12.75.
All aussie 6.5 is up on their average of 8.5625.
Aussie without Reds 7.3333 is slightly down on their average of 7.1666.
Right. Back to work.
April 27th 2010 @ 1:55pm
Spencer said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:55pm | Report comment
Lies, damned lies, and statistics….
April 27th 2010 @ 2:21pm
ohtani's jacket said | April 27th 2010 @ 2:21pm | Report comment
Speaking of tables, pick and go has a neat function for predicting the final table — http://www.lassen.co.nz/s14tab.php
April 27th 2010 @ 3:26pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:26pm | Report comment
OJ, that’s a great site, that could get a lot of use over time…
April 27th 2010 @ 4:05pm
BennO said | April 27th 2010 @ 4:05pm | Report comment
Great site. I just scored the reds a home final. You’ll all be pleased to know, the tahs finished 7th.
Oh and the cheetahs and lions played out a final round nil all draw. They were too hopeless to even score against each other this year.
April 27th 2010 @ 12:48pm
Peter K said | April 27th 2010 @ 12:48pm | Report comment
What are Genia and Cooper doing to make the backline function so well?
I am talking about as a unit and not what they do individually. They get very quick ball out to the wings often. Ioane and Davies see a lot of ball. When they dont it is because a genuine gap has occurred for Faingaa or Chambers to run at.
If you put Barnes at 12 this will not happen, and the wingers will see as little ball as Mitchell and Turner do. Instead Barnes will kick the ball yes sometimes to the winger but more often down field or a grubber which then most often goes out.
As I have said befoe I would give Giteau a go at 12 with Genia and Cooper inside him and see how he goes, he did used to be the worlds best 12 before he moved to 10. Mind you after his petulent spray about the ref instead of looking at his own performance I would be happy if he was dropped.
I would rather have Faingaa at 12 than Barnes.
April 27th 2010 @ 4:12pm
warrenexpatinnz said | April 27th 2010 @ 4:12pm | Report comment
PK agree about Barnes option taking and the lack of attacking with ball in hand he creates.
Mitchell has been a standout this season for his physical play, line breaks but more so because he now treasures the ball and has seemingly lost the fumbles. He though is now being starved of the ball as was Tuquri so this may reflect on more of the coaching style passed down through the Tah ages than singley out Barnes for the majority?
I see a lot of merit in a Genia, Cooper Faingaa/Gitteau combination with Mitchell and Ioanne on the wings. That group of young, show no fear backs will take on any defensive line and constantly test them, at pace for a full 80 minutes. Maybe the missing ingredient of the Wallabies through 2009 was pace and skill in the same breath? When you see how the Reds have tried to harnessed this over the past two seasons and now to see it finally coming off because they have a coach who can guide them you must really think that Deans must be grinning, I know I am.
April 27th 2010 @ 5:53pm
dunc said | April 27th 2010 @ 5:53pm | Report comment
I think Deans should go all out and pick the most hard running physically strong backline, if they want to beat the ABs and the Boks this year.
that means Quade, Fainga, Ioane, AAC (wing) and Lachie Turner and that Davies guy from Qld should be in the backline, with Genia leading the backs.
Goodbye to Gits, Barnes and James OConnor….make Pocock the captain.
Oh and my team is the All Blacks. That backline is powerful, hungry and will take on the ABs and Saffas.
April 27th 2010 @ 9:07pm
jiggles said | April 27th 2010 @ 9:07pm | Report comment
so turner on a wing and Davies at full back??
I’d rather have Davies on the Wing and Hines at fullback. its the positions they have been in all year after all…
April 27th 2010 @ 9:21pm
Peter K said | April 27th 2010 @ 9:21pm | Report comment
it is easy to say pick the Reds backline. What gets missed is that The back 3 for Qld get far more ball due the Genia and Cooper being the halves.
AAC, Mitchell and Turner get far less ball but have done a lot with the little they have seen.
April 27th 2010 @ 9:27pm
jiggles said | April 27th 2010 @ 9:27pm | Report comment
thats a bit of a cop out PK regarding having genia and cooper as halves. good wingers go looking for ball!
but anyway i would happily have AAC and Mitchell in the wallabies. not Turner but. for me he hasn’t really done much (apart form the odd game) since his first season, and i havent really seen him do much in a gold jumper.
April 27th 2010 @ 9:50pm
Banger said | April 27th 2010 @ 9:50pm | Report comment
Everyone seems to be forgetting how well Genia, Giteau and Cooper played towards the end of the Northern Hemisphere tour. Maybe swap cooper and gits around but that is definitely the three midfielders that I would start with.
With these guys being undersized we need to be sure that we pick some more powerful backs for further out, so Ioane, Hynes and AAC would walk straight in, and that leaves a wing spot open for one of the real speedsters. Which lord help us is not Lachie Turner. Cam Sheperd may be a bit of a smokey to play his way into the squad with a couple of big performances to finish off Super 14.
April 27th 2010 @ 9:57pm
jiggles said | April 27th 2010 @ 9:57pm | Report comment
why would you swap cooper and giteau around when cooper has been in amazing form at 10 and the less that can be said about giteau at 10 the better?
April 27th 2010 @ 1:00pm
Worlds Biggest said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:00pm | Report comment
Brett, your being very generous on your Brumbies. I would give them an E on current form. Agree with the rest.
April 27th 2010 @ 1:28pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:28pm | Report comment
Maybe Worlds, but when viewed in the context of the season, and in conjunction with the first report, C is about right to me. They’re still running 6th afterall, though I completely agree the form in the last two weeks especially hasn’t been flash. Actually, it’s more the execution really, becuase in both the Hurricanes and Tahs games, there’s plenty of suggestion they played enough to win, it’s just the last option that lets them down..
April 27th 2010 @ 1:33pm
johnny-boy said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:33pm | Report comment
Don’t think the Cooper/Spencer comparison is strictiy fair. Spencer thrived on being different and out there and anything goes. When he was hot he was hot but….. Cooper on the other hand, under McKenzie’s tutelage (or their backs coach)
seems to be being taught some patience and discretion and maturity. Given the Reds did have a pretty stuttering night against the Stormers I’m hoping they can pull a slick, clinical, exciting performance out of the bag for the Bumblies (without overdoing the excitement of course). It would nicely highlight the differences in the teams and cement a few Wallaby positions. I think the Reds still have a couple of great performances left in them when the years work really all comes together. Pity the poor team that cops it. How I would love it to be the Tahs if they both make the finals
April 27th 2010 @ 1:48pm
ohtani's jacket said | April 27th 2010 @ 1:48pm | Report comment
What I meant was that Hart had a problem with two 10s in ’98. He ended up having them share the first five duties and it was a disaster.
Carlos gets a bad rap around here, though, doesn’t he? The guy was an absolute w*nker but he achieved more in rugby than Giteau and Cooper have to date and was the type of star that Super rugby’s been missing in recent times. But Cooper has a bit of Spencer in him with the trash talking and celebrating. It won’t be long before the opposition start hating his guts. Already, I can’t stand his kicking stance.
April 27th 2010 @ 2:42pm
Republican said | April 27th 2010 @ 2:42pm | Report comment
Brett
I still cannot see the very well credentialed Brumbies making the finals. They have again been there own worst enemy, lacking flair in their backline.
If they did no how to cross the try line they would have been in the four courtesy of some fairly handy bonus points but alas, they will again be playing wait and see what happens with other teams, as with the past few seasons.
The Reds will have a field day v them next week I believe and this game will be all the more interesting with three Faaingas playing, two for the Reds and one for the Brumbies.
They should never have let the other two go north. Imagine having the three bros all -playing simultaenously in the same Brumby line up!
Cheers
April 27th 2010 @ 3:18pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:18pm | Report comment
Repub, it’s funny about the Faingaa’s, isn’t it (maybe not for them, admittedly). At the time, Anthony had barely got a chance with the Brumbies due to a knee reconstruction (from memory), but Saia had played a few games off the bench. While being solid without being spectacular he was offered an renewal while Anthony wasn’t. The Brumbies bought Moore, the twins wanted to play together, and the rest as they say…..
I agreed with the decision to let them go at the time, there was just no way they could (or should) keep both at the time, but I’m glad they’re kicking on the way they have..
April 27th 2010 @ 2:55pm
Rugbywits said | April 27th 2010 @ 2:55pm | Report comment
Brett,
The report cards are hard to agree or disagree with because I dont know what your concrete grading methods were.
What are the benchmarks and what are the areas that are to be marked.
If you include, zest for life and having a real go attacking the other teams line as one of the areas to look at then the Tah’s get a lesser grade according to me. Probably a B-.
But if thats not a worry for you, then the grade gets higher because the Tah’s have got the wins on the board and have been playing ‘tough’ rugby. And have been sticking to some sort of team plan, whatever that is going to be each week who knows.
The Reds get a great mark, fair call.
The Brumbies should have an average mark for an average team full of good players. I agree with that. Their mark will swing based on how the rest of the season goes. They need to only just miss out on the finals, with the players they have to get an average/pass mark. Anything outside of that and they get a fail from me. Look at who they have!
The Force can really increase their mark over the next few weeks from me. Every team has injuries yes but they had a lot and have shown grit. And can easily get a pass mark if they are able to rescue some more hope from this season. By all accounts it seems the Perth crowd enjoys watching the Force at their new home ground and are still set for a successful 2011.
April 27th 2010 @ 2:56pm
Rugbywits said | April 27th 2010 @ 2:56pm | Report comment
That was long, sorry boys!
April 27th 2010 @ 3:06pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:06pm | Report comment
love it WIts, you’ve just said it’s hard to agree or disagree with me, but then pretty much agree with me anyway (!) citing similarly unscientific methods to what I used. In truth, it’s all completely subjective, based just on my read of the tea leaves. It’s the vibe, the constitution, Mabo, etc….
April 27th 2010 @ 3:27pm
Rugbywits said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:27pm | Report comment
I know! Its all a bit up in the air.
I spose I’ve got tickets to see 3 games of the Tahs this year and have watched all of their other games live bar 2. So I spose no matter what grade I give em I’ve voted already! haha.
I was wondering what might make a good way to statistically grade a team. Im not talking about it being the be-all and end-all of rugby grading but some stats that might give way to a teams ‘goodness’.
I was going to do these ones for a start…
Metres per forward run
Metres per back run
Metres per kick
Line outs won AGAINST the throw
Srums won AGAINST the feed
Tries scored from inside 22
Tries scored from outside 22
And I know that wont be a teams greatness rating right there. But it could be an interesting way to grade the teams.
What do you rekon? Anything else that could be worth adding?
April 27th 2010 @ 3:42pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:42pm | Report comment
whoa, that’d get real dangerous, real quick if you started trying to work out the best stats to use. I mean, you’d probably have to look at penalties won and conceded too, and then whether they were short or full-arms, and then where on the field, and then whether attacking or defending. And then that’s just for scrum penalties!!
See my point….
April 27th 2010 @ 3:22pm
Jameswm said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:22pm | Report comment
Can I ask why so many people are writing the Brumbies off this weekend? If I was a tipping man I’d be picking them – they are at home, where they rarely lose. Where have the Reds won away from home this year?
April 27th 2010 @ 3:33pm
Brett McKay said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:33pm | Report comment
I’m certainly not writing them off James, nor will I pick against them this weekend, but I guess it’s hard to ignore current form…
April 27th 2010 @ 3:45pm
JF said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:45pm | Report comment
Why so many people writing the brumbies off?? I thought it was pretty obvious from the way they played (or didn’t play) last weekend – they were woeful. The Reds have just beaten two of the toughest three teams in the comp, they came back from SA with 2 from 3 wins, and beat the Chiefs in Hamilton this year. The Reds will bury the Brumbies this weekend.
April 27th 2010 @ 3:50pm
Spencer said | April 27th 2010 @ 3:50pm | Report comment
Hamilton, Bloemfontein and Johannesburg.
April 27th 2010 @ 4:46pm
Sogippy said | April 27th 2010 @ 4:46pm | Report comment
I think there is currently too much downplaying of Matt Giteau. Unlike Cooper he hasn’t the advantage of Genia. Just remember how good Giteau looked when he played next to Genia at Twickenham earlier this year in the Baa Baa vs All Black match. He made Bryan Habana’s last try. The NZ commentator – Ian Jones (?) memorably said of his drawing two defenders from the superb service – ‘You can’t underestimate how good that is’. It reminded me of Nigel Starmer-Smith’s intoning about a Phiippe Sella break -”….the speed of it all ‘.
As well, for the Wallabies, we must be serious about place and drop-goal kicking. Cooper is not up to the mark, neither is Berrick Barnes. I have no idea of Anthony Faingaa’s abilities.
It seems to me that Cooper/Giteau playing Robbie Deans 1st and 2nd five is by far the best answer. It will, however, need the important element, Genia.