Is it time to say goodbye to the Crusaders?
Roar Pro By kynang, 3 May 2010 kynang is a Roar Pro
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- Brumbies, Bulls, Crusaders, Hurricanes, Reds, Rugby Union, Stormers, Waratahs
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The Crusaders look set to bring home a big fat zero from their tour. I can’t imagine that they’ll be able to muster even a bonus point against the Bulls next week. That will mean they’re still on 34 points with a final game against the Brumbies to play.
The question is, where will their contenders be?
The Bulls? Well, they’ll be on top with at least 47 points.
The Stormers? Tough call – they’re up against the Sharks in Durban, not a venue they’ve found a lot of success at in recent years. But you have to back them to pull it off at this stage. I’m calling a close victory over their coastal cousins – Stormers will remain in 2nd place on 42 points.
The Reds are away to a Hurricanes team that could pose New Zealand’s most credible semi-final threat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds lose this -they’re a young team at crunch time. I think their finals weeks were against the Stormers and Bulls. They’ve peaked emotionally, and it might be all over for them after a wonderful season.
The Hurricanes will be on 37 points. The Brumbies will beat the Highlanders with a bonus point, putting them on 37 too. The Waratahs will beat the Chiefs to sit on … 37 points.
So the Reds and Crusaders will be in 6th and 7th place with one round to go, and both with their destinies out of their hands.
The Crusaders should beat the Brumbies, knocking off a competitor, and the Reds should beat the Highlanders. That’ll put them optimistically on 39 points each. One of the Hurricanes and Waratahs will have to lose. Or they could draw, leaving all 4 teams on 39 points. Unlikely.
More realistically, one of them will prevail, which one is hard to call – they’ve both been infuriatingly mediocre – neither team deserves a semi-final spot – but one of the Hurricanes or Waratahs will end 3rd, leaving the Reds and Crusaders to battle it out on points differential.
They currently sit one point apart on differential. I think the Crusaders may be hammered next week, leaving them a lot of ground to make up against a tough Brumbies team. It would be a shame to see the Reds eliminated, they are perhaps the only team brazen enough to travel to Loftus and make a game of it.
It’s still a toss-up, except for the Bulls. They’re home free. Another set of crazy results like we had this week, and who knows?
Could be the Hurricanes hosting a home semi-final. Who would have called that a few weeks ago?
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May 3rd 2010 @ 1:05pm
Mick Gold Coast QLD said | May 3rd 2010 @ 1:05pm | Report comment
An interesting read, kynang, and I fear you might be right about QLD having shown their best already. A win or a better showing against ACT might have given them continuing momentum.
My wife made a prescient passing comment just prior to watching Otago vs NSW on Friday – “These boys are playing for an All Blacks jersey.” The Otago blokes came out and played in just that manner after showing a return to much better form the week earlier, too.
I watch the games closely, especially the NZ teams ‘cos I enjoy their style of rugby, and I think the AB jersey is an additional factor weighing against NSW and certainly QLD this weekend, and ACT a week later. Even Otago playing away are an outside chance against ACT and QLD.
My instinct tells me doubting Canterbury’s power is akin to writing off Randwick or the fine Joeys teams of the 1980s. They are that good.
May 3rd 2010 @ 2:29pm
ThelmaWrites said | May 3rd 2010 @ 2:29pm | Report comment
The Crusaders will improve if they acknowledge that the “interpretations” at the breakdown have inexorably changed, and that they have to adjust quick and fast.
May 3rd 2010 @ 3:42pm
Nashi said | May 3rd 2010 @ 3:42pm | Report comment
My pedictions for the last 2 rounds and finals for the contenders are:
Reds (34) to earn 6 points with a narrow loss followed by a good bonus point win = 40 points
Tahs (33) to have two tough it out desperate wins for 8 points = 41 points
Brumbies (32) to have a solid but not bonus point win (backs still can’t score tries) and a norrow loss in Christchurch for 5 points = 37 points
Crusaders (34) to lose narrowly to Bulls and grind out a win to Brumbies for 5 points = 39 points
Canes (32) to win 1 from 2 for 5 points = 37 points.
Stormers (38) two solid wins but no bonus points or 1 win 1 loss for 5 points = 46 or 43 points
Bulls (43) one solid win and a narrow loss for 5 points = 48.
I would expect an upset result is required to produce anything different.
That looks like:
Semi final 1 Bulls v Reds
Semi final 2 Stormers v Tahs
Final Bulls v Stormers – Bulls to win.
I just can’t see anyone having enough firepower to beat the Bulls at home. Still I would be happy to be proved wrong.
May 3rd 2010 @ 5:27pm
brad said | May 3rd 2010 @ 5:27pm | Report comment
Nashi. Good insight unfortunately as the Crusaders found out the weekend its not up to the teams but the Ref.
May 3rd 2010 @ 6:07pm
Peter K said | May 3rd 2010 @ 6:07pm | Report comment
Dickinson did a good job, one of the few refs still interpreting the breakdown as it should be, as it was at the beginning of the year.
Stormers smashed Crusaders , they were far better, cant blame the ref on this one Brad.
May 3rd 2010 @ 6:15pm
Jerry said | May 3rd 2010 @ 6:15pm | Report comment
Dickinson wasn’t to blame – he was consistent accross the board, but I don’t think his ruling was really what the new interpretations are about. Early on, pretty much all the refs were a bit too harsh on the defence and basically ruled out any chance of a contest at the breakdown unless a player is hugely isolated. They were making the mistake, which Dickinson did, of pinging the non tacklers who were on their feet playing the ball.
May 3rd 2010 @ 8:35pm
Sylvester said | May 3rd 2010 @ 8:35pm | Report comment
I thought Dickinson was consistent, but out of kilter with how the breakdown has generally been refereed this year. Maybe he’s letter of the law, and the others not so much, but there was no contest at the breakdown.
The Crusaders appeared to get caned, mainly because they did all the defending. That said, they were still outplayed by the Stormers.
The Crusaders are playing poorly and will likely lose to the Bulls. However, if Carter can find his mojo and a few other things click, no team has more chance of upsetting the Bulls at home.
May 4th 2010 @ 12:06pm
Apelu Tielu said | May 4th 2010 @ 12:06pm | Report comment
Jerry, the ref has to rule on the tackler first. So even if there are non-tacklers on their feet trying to rib off the ball, if the tackler is still holding on to the ball carrier, the correct ruling should be a penalty against the tackler. I did not watch the match, but from what I can gather, it appears Dickinson got it right. The Crusaders are the champion of cheats, with McCaw the master. They got away with it in the past, but not any more, provided the refs are strict in monitoring the tackle, as Dickinson appeared to have been.
May 4th 2010 @ 12:11pm
ohtani's jacket said | May 4th 2010 @ 12:11pm | Report comment
Why are you commenting if you didn’t watch the match?
May 4th 2010 @ 3:27pm
kovana said | May 4th 2010 @ 3:27pm | Report comment
Yep.. i agreed with Dickinsons Ruling.. The Saders should have just Eased up and pounced for possesion at the right tiime.. They tried slowing the ball down too much… and were pinned..
They should have started changing their style at the breakdown after the 3rd penalty and just try and tackle the Stormers hard to force a Knock-on… Adapt!
May 3rd 2010 @ 6:49pm
eastboy said | May 3rd 2010 @ 6:49pm | Report comment
Come on lads haven’t you worked it out yet?
It’s only ok to blame the ref if it’s an Australian team that loses, Kiwis and Saffas I’m sorry you just have to suck it up and move on. Only we mainlanders are allowed to pass comment on Refs
May 3rd 2010 @ 7:41pm
Peter K said | May 3rd 2010 @ 7:41pm | Report comment
Blatantly not true. Kaplan was terrible when he cost Hurricanes a win against Crusaders.
Also normally when games are quite close ie within 7 points would a poor reffing decsion be the decider. Stormer smashed Crusaders by a big score.
May 4th 2010 @ 8:24am
TembaVJ said | May 4th 2010 @ 8:24am | Report comment
Its use to be like that, Aussies the only one to blame the ref rightfully. But the last couple of years the NZers have refined the art too. The thing is they have gotten use to people bending over “ooo the mighty all blacks” or “ooo the mighty Crusaders”…. The tide has changed and a long and successful cycle has come to an end for New Zealand. But I know what is coming next, some kiwi will post me stats and figures from day gone by and that is exactly the problem, let the past go. Hanging on to that old tag “we are the best” without delivering can only stand for so long.
Take McCaw for instance on the weekend, finally refs have started pinging him for cheating and boy was it enjoyable! His face was priceless, and to see him so frustrated that people and refs, other countries and other teams are no longer scared by the “we are the best” tag. Golden days are gone, the greats are leave out the back door and the new stock stick of the “we are the best” tag. Talent they have but the attitude is all wrong.
McCaw and Carter look tired and old, the front row is not what is once was… a backline that has not functioned in years if compared to teams 3 and 5 years ago. They cant seems to grasp the concept of line outs and the coach has been hanging on to his job for dear life.
Tri nation this year
1. SA/AUS
2. SA/AUS
3. NZ
Advice, drop the automatic we are the best attitude, especially the players… forget all the ancient stats and start thinking about the future as just another rugby team trying to be the best, not god of rugby.
May 4th 2010 @ 8:34am
hammer said | May 4th 2010 @ 8:34am | Report comment
Huh? – think you’ve got a few issues
May 4th 2010 @ 11:15am
ohtani's jacket said | May 4th 2010 @ 11:15am | Report comment
Are you drunk with power?
May 4th 2010 @ 3:09pm
inkosi said | May 4th 2010 @ 3:09pm | Report comment
While we’re on the subject of ref bashing – don’t forget it was the Sharks “complaint” that got Paul Marks demoted for his handling of the Tahs v Sharks game..
Everyone is in the same boat paddling up the same creek…
May 4th 2010 @ 3:22pm
eastboy said | May 4th 2010 @ 3:22pm | Report comment
Isn’t John Smit having a twiitter sook about Kaplan as we speak, oh thats right we ignore South African whinging don’t we.
South Africans just play the victim card week in week out
May 4th 2010 @ 3:29pm
Brett McKay said | May 4th 2010 @ 3:29pm | Report comment
Eastboy, Kaplan can’t ref Sharks games now, his position is untenable…..
(to use SANZAR precedent)
May 4th 2010 @ 3:45pm
eastboy said | May 4th 2010 @ 3:45pm | Report comment
Really that is just too funny,
I was just replying to tembas insinuation that only Australia and NZ whinge about refs
May 4th 2010 @ 4:04pm
TembaVJ said | May 4th 2010 @ 4:04pm | Report comment
Speaking of insinuation, I never said SA don’t cry about the refs hell everyone does… Whats your point?
I made a point and you got stuck on something I did not say instead of discussing what I did say…
Weird.
OJ its not like you to start off like that, tell me I am wrong…
May 4th 2010 @ 4:44pm
eastboy said | May 4th 2010 @ 4:44pm | Report comment
Ok lets go back to what you did say
“But the last couple of years the NZers have refined the art too. The thing is they have gotten use to people bending over “ooo the mighty all blacks” or “ooo the mighty Crusaders”…. ”
One of the most arrogant and provocative statements I have seen in here.
Can you show me one match this year where a ref has been suspended or demoted due to New Zealand teams whinging? Name one match where the media has written one story about New Zealander teams being hard done by, by the refs.
Also I see you are also accussing richie of Cheating maybe you shouldn’t count your chickens too early because your beloved Herich will be back soon and his style is very similar to that of richies, oh thats righ Henrich doesn’t cheat he plays to the rules doesn’t he Temba.
i can accept an opinion but a bigoted opinion like the rubbish you trolled out above has no place in a forum such as this.
May 4th 2010 @ 5:10pm
katzilla said | May 4th 2010 @ 5:10pm | Report comment
“The thing is they have gotten use to people bending over “ooo the mighty all blacks” or “ooo the mighty Crusaders”…. ”
Sounds like a bit of “ooo” envy to me.
Don’t worry when it comes to the Crusaders I feel the same way, but the All Blacks have deserved their ooo’s
One of our countries national team gets mentioned in hushed tones of reverence outside of it, the other’s is welcomed like an Adder to a childrens birthday party. Makes some jealous I know.
May 5th 2010 @ 8:09am
TembaVJ said | May 5th 2010 @ 8:09am | Report comment
Katz I am jealous of the AB’s 3 and 5 years ago, no doubt but they are loosing their touch and I think (my opinion) is that they will come third this year because they still rely on this invinsible attitude when clearly they are not.
What eastboy (who jumped to defence and denies me my right to an opinion) missed is that its exactly this sort of attitude that is causing the mighty blacks fall down.
I will never want a world without a strong AB team but the arrogance surrounding it at times makes me laugh.
@ eastboy settle down my friend its not a drama class, I am entitled to an opinion and have been posting on the roar for 3 years. My point was proven by your aggressive response… “how dare you attack eh mighty god of rugby”
You might not believe this but there are some out there (with opinions differing from yours) that think the AB’s have been intimidating refs for years to get away with murder. True or not, people believe this. I am just saying it seems to me things are going wrong with NZ rugby and no one can give me a good reason why.
Can’t blame exodus to the north Aus and SA face the same problem….
So instead of jumping on your very high all black horse, add some value to the conversation because chances are good that not a single NZ team will make the play offs and who knows maybe 3rd in the 3N… would you have believed this 5 years ago?
I am well aware of what NZ has accomplished in the past, only an idiot will deny it but I am talking about the now and all I seem to get is a history lesson.
May 5th 2010 @ 6:10pm
eastboy said | May 5th 2010 @ 6:10pm | Report comment
God you talk some utter fiolth Temba you are just trying to provoke an argument and thats it. get a grip
You can have an opinion that you think the ABs will get third I never said you couldn’t. What I said is pull your bigoted and one eyed head in. I see you hacve still failed to answer my question above.
maybe it’s you that needs to get out of the Green bog and except the fact not everyone thinks the Springboks are the almighty Shreks that you like to think they are.
You insinuate Kiwis and Aussies are huge whingers.
So show me the evidence from this year then.
I don’t think you’ll find any stories but you sure as hell will find some about South African teams and one disgracefully from the Springboks captain.
Your insecuriteis are laughable at best.
May 5th 2010 @ 6:15pm
eastboy said | May 5th 2010 @ 6:15pm | Report comment
Chances are also that no Australian team will make the playoffs but that has obviously slipped your narrow little mind.
Out of curtiosity how many times will that make it with no NZ team in the finals….. two compared to South Africa???
May 6th 2010 @ 8:06am
TembaVJ said | May 6th 2010 @ 8:06am | Report comment
bla bla bla I am not talking about the springboks my aggressive little friend, I never once mentioned them, my talk is about the AB’s and my point was made first. You are yet to come back with something beside personal attacking babble.
Yes my statements are provocative because I aim for serious discussion, now get out of the kitchen if you can’t stand the heat or give me something to work with beside your regular predictable attacks.
What is wrong with the all blacks?
There I have simplified it for you so that you won’t get distracted by the pretty little lights on the side.
May 6th 2010 @ 11:42am
KGW said | May 6th 2010 @ 11:42am | Report comment
Aggressive, I think it is you Temba who has started with the attitude towards this poster and now you can’t seem to let it go.
Everything you are accussing him of you are doing.
He is serving it back to you and its quite clear from your very immature responses that it is you who has started all the personal attacks and it is you who can not handle the heat or someone else not holding your beloved South Africa on a high pedestal.
GROW UP
May 4th 2010 @ 8:39am
TembaVJ said | May 4th 2010 @ 8:39am | Report comment
I know I have issues, who hasn’t but right now the God of world rugby should be worried, tell me when was the last time no NZ team made the semi’s in S12 or S14.
Then ask yourself, who has issues that concern you more?
May 4th 2010 @ 8:51am
Crouch, touch, pause, engage said | May 4th 2010 @ 8:51am | Report comment
Peter K,
Dickinson good. You are kidding he is a joke.
Apart from Steve Walsh (A kiwi lets be honest) the Aussie refs have no idea at scrum time, more like guess time hence the scrum is a no contest with an Aussie referee. The kiwi ref on Saturday night for the Brum Vs Reds game showed how a scrum is a contest!
As for Kaplan having a shocker allowing Crusaders to beat the Cane’s-how about the canes sheperd allowing Nonu to score? or the penalty count favouring the canes to ridiculous levels? Kaplan is consistent-consistently poor.
The Crusaders have won more titles than all other teams combined-discount them at your peril.
May 4th 2010 @ 3:41pm
Spencer said | May 4th 2010 @ 3:41pm | Report comment
Crusaders are gone in 2010! They make too many errors and seem unable to adapt to realities during the match (i.e. refs ruck interpretations). This is actually a trait of McCaw, as espoused by Eddie Jones (Master Muppet) and proven on several occasions in critical matches.
May 4th 2010 @ 3:47pm
eastboy said | May 4th 2010 @ 3:47pm | Report comment
And thats why the sit third Spencer yes truly an awful team,
May 4th 2010 @ 5:29pm
Spencer said | May 4th 2010 @ 5:29pm | Report comment
They will be 7th after Saturday!
May 4th 2010 @ 6:44pm
eastboy said | May 4th 2010 @ 6:44pm | Report comment
can you explain to me how that is going to happen,
Don’t tell me the Reds are going to beat the Hurricanes and the Wearatahs will beat the Chiefs right
May 4th 2010 @ 5:17pm
MarkR said | May 4th 2010 @ 5:17pm | Report comment
Spencer – “This is actually a trait of McCaw, as espoused by Eddie Jones (Master Muppet) and proven on several occasions in critical matches.”
Ok – to take a contrary position – perhaps that’s why he’s the most successful International captain in history ?
Temba – yep they need to learn, they were getting pinged for trying to hold the ball up & when there’s 4 or 5 people in the tackle, tackler hits the ground, there’s no way houdini can roll away. Unfortunately they kept doing it in kicking distance ! As frot he scrums, it was fantastic to get almost 40 mins without one, then he pings the Crusaders loosehead for being too low, in the 2nd 40 he pings the Crusaders loosehead for being too high ! Funny how when the opposition #1 started coming up a bit more i.e. head above hips the scrums became a very good contest.
It was a good game with some lovely running & great hits but a very frustrating one from a Crusaders point of view.
May 4th 2010 @ 6:55pm
et said | May 4th 2010 @ 6:55pm | Report comment
Scorline did not represent how close the game was. Love it how the Crusaders get rubbished all the time. As pointed out they are currently 3rd and were top a couple of weeks ago. Now the Tahs there is a champion team if ever you saw one!
May 4th 2010 @ 6:59pm
eastboy said | May 4th 2010 @ 6:59pm | Report comment
Its outright jealousy, some people just can not except the fact they the Crusaders are the benchmark of Super Rugby and it will be many years to come before anyone can take that away from them.
7 titles from 9 attempts I believe noone else comes close to that!
Even if the Bulls win this year they will still be 4 titles short not to mention I haven’t seen any other team in this competition go through an entire season undefeated.