Super 14 form suggests it’s the Boks year
Roar Pro By kynang, 5 May 2010 kynang is a Roar Pro
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- Bulls, Rugby Union, Springboks, Stormers, Super Rugby
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Kiwi pundits like to point out that Super 14 success doesn’t translate into International success. But that’s only true for Kiwi teams. For South Africa, there seems to be a direct correlation. Look at the history.
2006 – Bulls scrape into fourth place as the only South African qualifier, and the Springboks have a disastrous year, including a record 49-0 loss to Australia.
2007 – Bulls and Sharks dominate the league and compete for the Final. Springboks win the World Cup.
2008 – Sharks are the sole South African semi-finalists, the Bulls come in tenth. South Africa has another terrible Tri-Nations, including a loss to Australia on home soil – the first since 2000.
2009 – The Bulls destroy all before them, as do the Boks, beating the All Blacks in all three fixtures of the year.
So with 2010 again looking like the year of two South African finalists (Bulls and Stormers), what chance do the All Blacks have?
South African teams have destroyed their New Zealand counterparts – ignoring the Lions, of course. The Stormers have won all five games, the Bulls are poised to go 4-1, the Sharks are 3-2, even the lowly Cheetahs are 2-2!
Victories on New Zealand soil are coming thick and fast for the Saffas, and that can only translate into success for the Boks.
So another Tri-Nations trophy in the Bok closet seems a historical inevitability. The only question is, are the Boks peaking too soon?
The World Cup is next year and can Smit, Matfield and company, really sustain the momentum? The Stormers pack, featuring just one regular Springbok starter, are perhaps proof that it doesn’t really matter. South Africa has the depth of talent to dominate for years to come.
Just ask the Kiwi’s who they fear worse now – Matfield or Bekker.
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May 5th 2010 @ 7:17am
dingo_pete said | May 5th 2010 @ 7:17am | Report comment
Yes SA may win the super 14 this year and deservedly so, they have two form teams in the Bulls and Stormers. I dont think the Kiwis will worry too much if there’s no NZ team in the final 4, this year.
SA did dominate NZ last year, and that was last year. That makes up for last 10 years NZ being slapping the Boks around like school kids.
May 5th 2010 @ 8:40am
TembaVJ said | May 5th 2010 @ 8:40am | Report comment
I agree on the point of John Smit, the boks rely heavily on him and I just don’t think he can make it to next years big tourney… He looks tired and a bad sharks season might just break his strong leadership. He has kept going before and I won’t be surprised if he proves me wrong.
There are plenty of leadership in the boks team that are also in form. Burger is finding his old feet and suits the new interps better then Brusso. Matfield still looks OK, Juan Smith, Du Preez, leadership is aplenty.
That leaves two hurdles that no other teams have to deal with politics and goofy coaches….
Who knows maybe we will have a NZ vs SA final…
May 5th 2010 @ 10:52am
ISO said | May 5th 2010 @ 10:52am | Report comment
It currently is rather speculative to assume that S.A. will take the S14.
Albeit they sit on top of the log, that the Stormers “put the fear of God into the Crusaders”, as a commentator said, the Crusaders and others may well surprise the world, although I’d also guess it will be either the Bulls or Stormers.
S.A.’s Professor Noak stated a huge fatigue after the unnecessary tour to Europe after the Bokke taking all silverware etc.
A statement has just been released that there will be no S.A. team at the millenium stadium, Cardif, the team are finally catching a short break. Many of their key players are also returning from other countries to join up with their home team.
Many talented foregoers in rugby always say that history should be taken into account regarding outcomes. Last season certainly proved them wrong as well as this season to date.
Skipper, Smit’s probably taken too much albeit he may recoup – that cannot be assumed. He has been a true Motivator of Men! The question thus has to be asked, if he were to quite, his absence may well be costly – his diretives and critical decision making.
There is little doubt about depth – despite what perceptions media or other sources give, immense amounts of engergy and costs are involved in the constant surveillance and selection of potential players, irrespective of colour which is not fully portrayed – but is hellout evident in their games.
The All Blacks do not enjoy the same support and motivation as other teams do by and large – that is a crying shame! It’s also contradictory to the Kiwis being “The rugby kings”. Whilst there are genuinely avid supporters, support, actively is not what it’s cracked up to be.
Who-ever said in another media release that the Warratahs (‘scuse spelling – my bed time actually), don’t play a good game… WOW! Misinformed. Some great Aussie teams, the Brumbies play inconsistently, one large mitigating factor being that one team member does not want to (apparently) become a true pal and helper, avoids a 15-man game, prefering to play the man, not the game mostly.
Coaches need to be re-assessed in many countries – that’s an obvious.
McCaw and others needs to stop playing on the border-line of the laws. If anything is going to rule out a team, it’s going to be those who don’t heed the laws.
May 5th 2010 @ 11:51am
ohtani's jacket said | May 5th 2010 @ 11:51am | Report comment
I don’t think we should worry so much about what other sides are doing. The All Blacks have three Tests to play themselves into some kind of form before the South Africans arrive. If you ask me, it’s better to have that sort of challenge than the weak opposition we usually face.
Test match rugby is a funny old thing. The South African coaches could get their strategy wrong or they could get it right and dominate. Hopefully, they play like the Stormers this year and not like the Springboks from last season.
May 5th 2010 @ 12:03pm
ISO said | May 5th 2010 @ 12:03pm | Report comment
OJ – you’ve got a valid point. Especially test rugby being a funny thing – too true!
I’d say all coaches can get it right or wrong to be fair.
Agree, Stormers are playing genuine rugby – stunning!
It’s difficult to reason beyond what experts have said – and that is, there’s only one way to win the world cup or any cup – WIN.
I think it’s the difference in the way games are played that can skew one’s focus as each country, city, county – whatever, tend to support rugby as they are accustommed to seeing it played provided there is fairness and consistency.
The S.A. teams are inclined to play an extremely fast game, probably taking a bit of excitement out of the tests – other quarters may think differently…
May 7th 2010 @ 2:07am
pothale said | May 7th 2010 @ 2:07am | Report comment
” If you ask me, it’s better to have that sort of challenge than the weak opposition we usually face.”
Who’s the weak opposition the ABs usually face before they play South Africa? And what’s the challenge they have this time?
May 7th 2010 @ 2:12am
ISO said | May 7th 2010 @ 2:12am | Report comment
Pothale, taking into account your comments for a long time, maybe you can tell us who the challenges are and are not…?
May 7th 2010 @ 2:32am
pothale said | May 7th 2010 @ 2:32am | Report comment
Eh – I don’t understand your question,ISO.
How do you mean taking into account my comments for a long time? This doesn’t make any sense.
How could I tell you what challenges OJ is talking about? I don’t know. That’s why I asked him the question.
OJ said that the All Blacks have three Tests to play themselves into some kind of form before the South Africans arrive and it is better to have that sort of challenge than the weak opposition we usually face.
Would you like to explain on his behalf?
May 7th 2010 @ 2:40am
ISO said | May 7th 2010 @ 2:40am | Report comment
You’re right – I replied when not asked to – you’ve certainly got a nice way of sending a person to a hot place and telling them to enjoy the ride…. no offence.
I logged in on the on PC watching the flow of comments whilst doing an article on another – it often works well, but then there are blunders like I’ve just made. Thanks mate!
May 5th 2010 @ 11:53am
JamesB said | May 5th 2010 @ 11:53am | Report comment
The number 1 ranked team in the world will be quite happy to be written off. History suggests otherwise.
May 5th 2010 @ 11:54am
SamSport said | May 5th 2010 @ 11:54am | Report comment
Super 14 form isn’t a great indicator of international success. Some of the points made in the article are quite selective. The Boks have only won the Tri-Nations three times; the first in 1998 saw an all NZ Super 12 final, and only 1 SA team in the top 4. The 2004 Tri-Nations win was the year the Brumbies and Crusaders played in the final, again only 1 SA team in the top 4, and last year the Bulls won it, with 3 kiwi teams in the top 4. Super 12/14 form and Tri-Nations form don’t necessarily go hand in hand. In 2007 when the Bulls and Sharks played the final the Boks couldn’t win the Tri-Nations, and only won 1 match (all this was omitted in the article) of their 4 against NZ or Aust that year. Anyway the relationship between Super 12/14 form and international success is completely over-rated.
May 5th 2010 @ 11:59am
ohtani's jacket said | May 5th 2010 @ 11:59am | Report comment
The Boks would’ve pushed harder in the 2007 Tri-Nations if they’d won in Durban but the All Blacks snuck a great come from behind win over them, so White decided to rest his players on the away leg.
May 5th 2010 @ 12:26pm
ISO said | May 5th 2010 @ 12:26pm | Report comment
Regarding various comments – sporting journalists indicated quite simply and logically why S.A. achieved what they did – it’s not rocket science – the one journalist being from New Zealand.
We all have our own comfort zone, so as to speak as to how we prefer to watch a game of rugby / test etc so long as it’s fair and consistent.
In S.A. the game is extremely fast, it seems to me like they do what they have to in terms of tries and excitement for the spectators and their own achievements. But as frequently stated, there is only one way to win the cup or cups and that is to win.
They disappointed many with their rapid ups and unders – essentially, for any team, either playing or defending ups and unders is a basic and fundamental rule in the early stages of rugby.
There will always be differing opions – let’s rather enjoy and support our men on the field.
May 5th 2010 @ 12:29pm
SamSport said | May 5th 2010 @ 12:29pm | Report comment
Maybe, but they didn’t. One 3 point win over Australia in South Africa is all they got from their 4 matches, and they had 2 SA teams in the final – just saying.
May 5th 2010 @ 12:34pm
ohtani's jacket said | May 5th 2010 @ 12:34pm | Report comment
OK. I don’t think it really hurts to be 1 and 2 in the Super 14, though. The next step depends on coaching and the right selections.
I’m more worried about 2012 than this year. I have no idea what sort of All Blacks side we can put on the field in 2012.
May 5th 2010 @ 1:28pm
SamSport said | May 5th 2010 @ 1:28pm | Report comment
It’s definitely not a bad thing to have teams performing well in the Super rugby, but it is always dangerous to try and translate it directly into international form.
May 5th 2010 @ 1:26pm
inkosi said | May 5th 2010 @ 1:26pm | Report comment
Thanks for that Sam, was curious about the other years.
May 5th 2010 @ 12:39pm
ISO said | May 5th 2010 @ 12:39pm | Report comment
OJ, you’d know better – but I personally believe that the All Blacks will return with many revisions, more depth et al.
May 5th 2010 @ 12:48pm
ohtani's jacket said | May 5th 2010 @ 12:48pm | Report comment
The All Blacks are on the decline. The question is whether they can win the World Cup at home before the rebuilding process begins in 2012. Personally, I think it could take three or more years after the 2011 World Cup for the All Blacks to be a strong side again. A lot depends on coaching both domestically and at the Test level, but I think we’re in for a lean trot once all these veteran All Blacks retire.
May 5th 2010 @ 3:27pm
Matt said | May 5th 2010 @ 3:27pm | Report comment
New Zealand continues to dominate at school boy and U20 level. There is a whole generation of young players coming through in NZ, many of which have gained valuable experience from NZs numerous injuries in the S14 this season.
Aside from Carter the entire Crusaders backline are all youngsters o the up and up. Kids like Crotty, Fruean, Guildford, Maitland, Slade. Plus forwards like Whitelock and Franks who are still very young, but exciting. Then throw in other guys who have been given a shot due to injury, like Mailau and Faumuina in the Blues front row (not to mention Mathewson and Ranger). Or Retalick, Braid, Willison and Naenae-Williams at the Chiefs. Cruden and Vito at the Canes. Robinson, Dagg, Bekius at the Highlanders. There is plenty of talent coming through for the future, but I think most of it is a year or two away from fruition and is also concentrated in a few areas. Not too many classy young Hookers or halfbacks.
May 5th 2010 @ 10:17pm
ohtani's jacket said | May 5th 2010 @ 10:17pm | Report comment
There’s young talent coming through, but they’re not getting to test their mettle against the vets because no-one’s sticking around once their Test match career is over. I also think our coaching stocks are looking somewhat barren, but I’m trying to be philosophical about it. The 2000s was a strong period of rugby for NZ and the way I see it this is the Autumn of that period with so many All Black careers and coaching tenures drawing to an end.
May 5th 2010 @ 8:27pm
Mr Saunders said | May 5th 2010 @ 8:27pm | Report comment
That depends on what happens to the veteran All Blacks, OJ. The changes to the French league would suggest a decline of foreign playing talent, and by and large the sides currently recruiting in the Guinness Premiership have been signing English players. I would be surprised if as many *star* names leave post-WC as they did post-2007. The bigger issue, IMO, is the loss of the non-All Black club players, for example Ti’i Paulo.
Another issue is that Henry has been quite a prolific capper, and thus there are no clear back-ups for the main players. Who is the next 5 in line? Is it Boric, Ross or Jack? Who is the next 4 behind Thorn? Is it Donnelly, Evans or Thrush?
May 5th 2010 @ 10:22pm
ohtani's jacket said | May 5th 2010 @ 10:22pm | Report comment
I’ve heard that European contracts are getting harder to come by particularly for specialists but the top All Blacks will get snapped up if they’re willing to go. A lot of fringe players are leaving to beat the rush, but it’s interesting that opensides are struggling. I’ve heard that Braid, Phil Waugh and George Smith have all struggled to get the type of money they’re looking for.
I’m hoping that the new Four Nations or whatever it’s called will encourage a couple of guys to play on, but that’ll be a hell of a lot easier if they’re World Champs.
May 5th 2010 @ 10:48pm
Mr Saunders said | May 5th 2010 @ 10:48pm | Report comment
I think that France and Japan are the only genuine contenders for the star 3N players. There isn’t the money in the GP, or the Magners, and then there is also the weather to consider. Bryan Habana, for example, has made it clear that he would only consider southern France. What good would Sivivatu be to a team like Leicester in the depths of winter? Personally, although I’m keen to see the current trend develop (of English clubs looking for English talent), I’d love to see players like Woodcock, Hore, Donnelly and Waldrom (I can’t wait to see him in action) playing in the GP.
I have a sneaking suspicion that not too many players will move on, and even if the senior players do there is still the core of a promising young group: Owen Franks, Paterson, Thomson, Jane etc.
May 6th 2010 @ 2:54am
Colin N said | May 6th 2010 @ 2:54am | Report comment
I remember that Sale had the option of signing Phil Waugh last season, but decided that they wanted to give Carl Fearns more opportunity in the first team. Now they are set to sign a “very very good openside from the Super 14.”
Despite the salary cap being implemented in France for next season, there are loopholes which can be exploited, so I expect the heavy spending to continue. However, in their current state, most clubs aren’t sustanable without rich benefactors and if they were to pull out, it would spell disaster for the French game.
Even one of the traditional powerhouses, Stade Francais, are struggling financially.
May 7th 2010 @ 2:24am
pothale said | May 7th 2010 @ 2:24am | Report comment
Is the money on offer in the GP and the ML not still better than what’s on offer domestically? Presume that’s why people Elsom, de Villiers came across.
The running assumption that it’s all about money is not being borne out by the reactions and reflections from players who have made the move. Weather and quality of life, different experiences, different rugby styles certainly play their part.
Nevertheless, the flow will likely reduce, but more for reasons of strengthening the game and player pool in Britain and Ireland.
Some of the imports have been downright poor, and have served only to cut across development of home-grown players. In Ireland, if we didn’t see another South African or other foreign-born prop, it won’t be soon enough in my view. We’re beginning to reap what we’ve sown. Players like B J Botha, CJ Van der Linde, Pucciarello, Brugnaut have added very little in the long run. Ireland’s test performances and provincial performances have been appalling in the front row this season, and it is a major weakness that is set to continue. (I’m beginning to think the June tests against NZ and Australia should be cancelled, and put in scrum training instead – it would be a better use of their time.)
May 5th 2010 @ 2:49pm
Rugbywits said | May 5th 2010 @ 2:49pm | Report comment
In terms of Super rugby success translating into Test Rugby – it couldnt hurt could it?
The main thing is that for the success to translate is to have good coaching, teachable players and good leadership.
All those things make people from differing backgrounds play well together.
A little off topic but similar all the same…
If I was to play SA this year the first two things I would do was put 2 snipers on the roof of the stadium and as the players run out tell them to line up the jersey numbers 10 and 13. Steyn and Fourie. That might make the game a little easier to handle.
Steyn is worth 12 points a game minimum when he is playing comfortably and kicking well. On top of that this year he seems to have learnt how to run and stand flat enough to bring his backline into play well.
Fourie well – beast. Thats probably enough description there..
Any other creative ideas as to how to nullify those two? The scary part is they dont look like they will fade in a year or 2 like some of the forwards
May 5th 2010 @ 2:57pm
inkosi said | May 5th 2010 @ 2:57pm | Report comment
Agree with you about the forwards, but not so sure about Fourie! Based on form in the S14 he should be playing for the Blues! Absolute dynamite in one game and doesn’t show up for the next?
IMO I think SA is peaking to soon and has to many old players when they meet the AB’s in the semi’s it will be a tough game but hoe ground advantage will win out, just like the Bulls at Loftus.
But all said and done we can muse on here till the cows come home, until the RWC kicks off it’s just pie on the wall!
May 5th 2010 @ 11:50pm
Ben J said | May 5th 2010 @ 11:50pm | Report comment
I can’t think of many “old players” in the Bok team. Not many would argue that their is no finer lock combo than Matfield and Botha and you need the experience up front to win World Cups. If this lot manage to stay fit and on top of their game this will be the most experienced squad in the history of World Cups to try and defend the trophy.
These are next years ages for some key players
Bakkies Botha 32
Danie Rossouw 33 (and playing very well I might add)
Fourie du Preez 29
Jacque Fourie 28
Juan Smith 30
John Smit 33
Morne Steyn 27
Pierre Spies 26
Schalk Burger 28
Beast 26
Victor Matfield 34
Wynand Olivier 28
Bryan Habana 28
Andries Bekker 27
May 6th 2010 @ 12:13am
Mr Saunders said | May 6th 2010 @ 12:13am | Report comment
The same frailties still abound though. BJ Botha may have shored up the scrum versus a very weak Irish scrummage, but none of Mtawarira, Steenkamp, Jannie du Plessis, Kruger and Smit will intimidate strong opposition packs. Likewise, with regards to Botha and Matfield. They are a very good combination for the South African style, but when placed on the back foot as we saw versus the Lions and on the European tour the pair, especially Botha, melt into the background. The South African style relies on the collision, and with various other teams improving they will need to show variety this coming 3N. You also have to consider that test rugby is like heavyweight boxing. One day you wake up and you have lost *it*. It’s a leap of faith to suggest that players like Smit and Matfield will not be on the decline.
May 5th 2010 @ 4:21pm
Ben J said | May 5th 2010 @ 4:21pm | Report comment
The Boks were their own worst enemies for many years, playing undisciplined, thuggish rugby at times. About that there is no doubt.
There is a new crop of coaches and players that took the blinkers off and discipline is now a feature of South African S14 teams, intelectually there has been a seismic shift in the way SA teams prepare for games. This is not to say that they will dominate their Australasian counterparts but it has contributed at least to the quality of the competition. Very few commentators are still asking whether the S14 needs the Saffas.
It is not the time to make predictions just yet but I am sure we all welcome the improved performances of the SA teams in this year’s competition.
May 5th 2010 @ 8:46pm
et said | May 5th 2010 @ 8:46pm | Report comment
The AB’s are not on the decline. Last time I checked we were No 1 and our last test was massacring 6 Nations champions France at home in November.
May 5th 2010 @ 10:01pm
ohtani's jacket said | May 5th 2010 @ 10:01pm | Report comment
One or two good performances in 14 Tests is not that convincing, et. They’ve been on a gradual decline since 2006, but it’s been much, much slower than other countries.