As Australians, we generally hold sport in high regard, and we are used to seeing our teams succeed. We have become accustomed to seeing Australia dominate world cricket for much of the past 20 years and the Wallabies maintain supremacy over bigger European nations.
We would like to expect that the Socceroos can uphold this successful tradition.
The 2006 World Cup gives us reason to believe that the Socceroos belong in the top sixteen football teams in the world, and our FIFA world ranking of 20 strengthens this belief.
Let’s look at the Socceroos group for the 2010 World Cup – Germany, Ghana and Serbia.
Whilst only the naive would kid themselves that the Socceroos are a stronger team than Germany, the respective world rankings of Ghana and Serbia (32 and 15) lead us to believe that the Socceroos are stronger than Ghana, and more or less even with Serbia.
So far, all indicators suggest that Australia has a good chance of finishing in the top two of its group, and progressing to the knockout rounds.
Much of the mainstream media will tell you Australia would be unlucky to lose to Ghana and Serbia, but then, why would they say anything else?
We like to be told that our team is up there with the best in the world, and nobody wants to be told otherwise.
However, there is another key indicator that I have not yet mentioned.
It’s an obvious one, but funnily enough, despite my incessant reading of anything to do with football, I can’t remember seeing this mentioned in any article I have read in the past six months.
Across the five agencies I have looked at, of the four nations in Australia’s group, every single agency places Australia at the longest odds to progress to the knockout rounds. At the time of writing, Australia’s odds of progressing ranged from 2.70 to 3.45, whilst Germany’s ranged from 1.16 to 1.24, Ghana’s from 2.15 to 2.56 and Serbia’s from 1.80 to 1.90.
This puts Australia at significantly longer odds than both Ghana and Serbia to progress.
So there you have it.
Unfortunately, one of most reliable indicators available suggests that Australia will have to do very well to reach the knockout rounds. Not for a minute am I suggesting that the Socceroos can’t repeat their performance of 2006, but it would be unreasonable to think there is a strong likelihood of this occurring.
Looking at future World Cups, it would be nice to think the Socceroos can consistently be a front runner and progress to the knockout round. I think that is what we need to aim for, and I absolutely think it’s achievable. But I don’t think we are there yet.
In almost every World Cup Australia reaches, it will be grouped with a genuine world football powerhouse, such as Germany, Brazil, Spain etc. Given that these teams will almost always qualify for the knockout rounds, this leaves Australia fighting with two other teams for only one spot.
That is a difficult proposition, and it’s not something we can assume will be achieved at every World Cup.
All that aside, this is sport, and anything can happen.
Yes, Australia faces an uphill battle, but their determination means they will always have a chance.
So let’s get excited and hope for good times ahead!
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