In the pre-season there were seven sides considered to be premiership contenders. As we head into the split round, it’s time to reassess that notion. There are three sides that clearly still remain on the list, but it’s hard to make a case for most of the other 13 clubs.
Geelong are the clear standouts, despite the size of their injury list. In fact, their resilience in spite of injuries, along with James Podsiadly’s arrival and Travis Varcoe’s improvement, shows they may have even gone up a notch.
St Kilda, meanwhile, only have only three losses to their name, proof that they are still a quality side sans Nick Riewoldt. Lenny Hayes has emerged as the new leader in the midfield and Stephen Milne has filled the goal-scoring void up forward.
Collingwood, despite having their off days and nights, round out the top three. Sharrod Wellingham and Ben Ried have come on well, Dale Thomas has found consistency, Luke Ball and Darren Jolly have been fine additions and there’s real pressure on for spots.
So there’s three on the list of premiership contenders that no one should be crossing off just yet. The uncertainty lies with the remaining teams.
Of course, there’s the other top four side, Fremantle, who have overshot expectations completely, despite the fact they are limping into the split round.
The problem, however, is that we’re talking in the context of teams that are capable of winning the premiership, and it’s almost safe to say the Dockers – even if they finish in the top four – aren’t yet worthy of being placed alongside the big boys.
The best case scenario for Freo is that the season plays out like the 2004 season did for both St Kilda and Geelong – they finish top four, “arrive” as a team and cause plenty of headaches come September, but fall just short of making it to the grand final.
That means they are still important though, because a top four finish is critical to any premiership tilt, let alone one that involves conquering the likes of Geelong and St Kilda. Freo could ruin the hopes of sides below them.
Of teams currently outside the top four, the Western Bulldogs are the obvious candidate. They have disappointed to date and we’re still waiting on a “major scalp” – you can read my full whinge on this topic here – but it’s easy to get the sense that if things finally do click into gear, they’ll be a very dangerous team.
Whatever the solution is, finding it right before September would be perfect. Especially because sneaking into the top four is very much a possibility.
The Dogs have maintained a healthy 7-5 record – despite the fact none of those wins came against teams in the top six – and presently sit fifth, only one game outside the top four. For all that has gone wrong in season 2010, they haven’t capitulated on the ladder.
On this basis solely, and ignoring what’s taken place on the field, the Dogs remain on the list of premiership contenders. For now, at least.
Beyond the Dogs, Hawthorn have hit some form of late. Some of their wins have carried dubious significance also, but watching the likes of Buddy Franklin, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli hit their straps – like we saw over the weekend – makes a pretty compelling case.
Unfortunately, their start to the season raised too many question marks for my liking. And with the Dogs, Geelong and St Kilda coming up during the next five rounds, a feeling that they are only weeks away from being exposed is pertinent in the back of the mind.
A win over the Cats or Saints might change this, but it’s hard to have the Hawks on “the list” right now.
Carlton, in sixth place, are the other side up for consideration. They’ve beaten Geelong and St Kilda, but you get the sense they won’t be capable of repeating such feats when it’s September and those sides are fully switched on.
If anything, they are in the same boat as Fremantle, chasing that season where they finally emerge and announce themselves to the footy world.
So for now, the list of premiership contenders has been cut to four.
When you think back to the start of the year and how one of the teams originally on that list was Adelaide, it’s a sobering reminder that anything can happen.
Still, it would be mighty surprising to see any side other than the Cats, Saints, Pies or Dogs holding the cup aloft on the last Saturday in September.
Round 5 of the AFL provided plenty of action, from big scorelines to upset wins and pressure starting to build on some clubs and coaches already.
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