Belief is the key, and Brazil are oozing it

 
Tony Tannous Columnist

By , 2 Jul 2010 Tony Tannous is a Roar Expert

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Brazil's Kaka fights for the ball with Paraguay's Julio Caceres. AP Photo/Ricardo Moraes

Brazil's Kaka fights for the ball with Paraguay's Julio Caceres. AP Photo/Ricardo Moraes

What is abundantly clear, as it invariably is at the business end of any World Cup, is how important one word is. Belief. While quality and tactics undoubtedly play a role, mentality is the key. Only those instilled with the utmost belief, prosper. Those that fear, fail.

And what was clear at the end of the Round of 16 is that the teams which lacked self-belief are no longer with us, or soon won’t be.

Teams like Mexico and Chile caught the eye throughout the first fortnight with some of the most delightful football, flowing from the prodigious feet of the likes of Giovanni Dos Santos, Alexis Sanchez, Andres Guardado, Matias Fernandez, Efrain Juarez and Esteban Paredes, but ultimately didn’t believe enough against bigger opposition.

South Korea dished up a great performance, competing evenly with the better credentialed Uruguay and did themselves and Asia proud, but ultimately suffered from a lack of belief and quality in front of goal.

The referee, Wolfgang Stark, might have done a bit more to help them, I felt, but when Lee Chung Yong and Lee Dong Guk missed late chances when through on goal with just Fernando Muslera to beat, you had to wonder what a bit of self belief might have achieved.

Imagine Luis Suarez or Diego Forlan in those positions.

La Celeste, on the other hand, believed in the game-plan, their own ability to absorb a lead, and, then, when they copped a late equaliser, they didn’t panic. They had enough faith to come out again and play, knowing they had the front third quality to score again.

Japan, meanwhile, looked like they believed they could get to extra time and penalties, but never looked like they believed they could win, either in normal or extra time.

They were playing the percentages, engaged in an arm-wrestle, hoping rather than truly believing they could win.

It was a terrific performance from both Asian sides to get as far as they did, but the key for them to progress further in 20014 is to start believing in their own ability.

Technically and tactically they are thereabouts. Mentally, they fell a touch short against these seasoned South Americans.

It was an opportunity lost for Japan, no doubt, for they came up against a Paraguay that was equally tentative. Having never got beyond the Round of 16, desperate to take the next step here, it is easy to see how history can tighten a performance.

One team that knows all about the weight of negative history is England, who not only had to wrestle with the quality of this young German generation, but a history of over-expectation and under-achievement.

Of course, that ‘goal’ might have changed everything, and might have instilled enough belief to go on with it, but to me Fabio Capello’s men looked like non-believers, for most of the tournament.

Players normally liberated at their clubs looked burdened and frightened here.

Germany, with its proud history and renowned mental toughness, are showing remarkable belief. They not only know they belong at this level, they are prancing around in the manner of team believing they own this scene.

Whether this young generation has enough belief to go the whole way, I’d say is unlikely at this stage. The likes of Mesut Ozil and Thomas Mueller are carving it up, while Bastain Schweinsteiger has been quite brilliant, but it’s a massive ask for such a young team to go all the way. But we are talking about Germany.

Their quarter final against Argentina will be a showcase for attacking flair. Neither side is particularly enamoured with idea of defending, let alone have the quality to sit back.

For both, the belief is in their attack, so expect goals and plenty of them, perhaps even a 4-3.

But which way will it go? While Argentina hasn’t been in this company for a while, there is absolutely no doubt the manager has the utmost belief in his men.

Like Jose Mourinho, Diego Maradona has instilled a commitment and spirit within his squad, ensuring the attention is on him rather than his players.

Maradona appears less concerned with the detail and more interested in the broader picture. For him it’s about the mentality of his side.

Hitherto they have looked strong, but be sure that Joachim Loew’s men will test ever part of their game; physical, technical, tactical and mental. Will they crack?

It is a question also worth asking of the Spaniards. While they no doubt have grown mentally on the back of their Euro win and a remarkable couple of years, they still have a massive hurdle to jump having never been to the final.

As they go through the stages, it will take supreme belief to get beyond a confident Germany or Argentina in the semis, and what is most likely to be Brazil in the final.

But for now it is all about seeing off a stubborn Paraguay, a team they are expected to beat. That would instil more steel.

Another team no doubt wrestling with its past is Holland. There’s little doubt Arjen Robben believes, but is there enough faith among the rest of the squad?

Any hint of fear at midnight tonight and they’ll soon be out.

That’s because the one team never short on belief is their quarter final opponent, Brazil. When they turn up to a tournament and believe they can win, they are hard to halt. Here they definitely look in the mood.

Who else could come back from 2-0 down in the final of the Confederations Cup and win 3-2?

At the 2007 Copa America, Argentina were scoring goals for fun on the way to final. Brazil, meanwhile, stumbled there. The result in the decider? A comprehensive 3-0 to Brazil.

There has been much talk in the build up to this tournament and throughout about the lack of joga bonito from the pragmatist Dunga, but on the evidence of what we have seen so far, they look to be the most adaptable and flexible unit around.

It is almost impossible to identify a weakness. Able to defend and absorb, able to counter-attack, able to possess the ball and play through a defence, able to score at set pieces, able to defend them, able to integrate their fullbacks, it’s hard to find fault.

But their biggest asset? Their attitude.

Against Chile they were simply oozing belief. It was the same scenario on Matchday 2, in the 3-1 win over the Ivory Coast.

Setting the tone are the two central defenders, Lucio and Juan. Aggressive but clean and positive, they attack with their attitude. It is infectious.

“Thou shall not pass” is their motto, and it sets the tone. The much dismissed Invisible Wall, Gilberto Silva, was immense against Chile, while the workrate from Kaka, Robinho and Luis Fabiano is selfless.

Right now the bookies appear to be on the money. Brazil are favourites for a reason.

My Quarter Final predictions:
Netherlands vs Brazil; The Netherlands should look to send Arjen Robben at Michel Bastos, but expect Juan and Felipe Melo to help him out. If Brazil can stop Wesley Sneijder and Robben, they have enough quality to break down Holland’s defence, either via the counter-attack or via a deft piece of combination play between Kaka, Robinho and Luis Fabiano. Brazil 2-0.

Uruguay vs Ghana; Oscar Tabarez’s men are very solid defensively, with the miserly back four screened by a bank of three aggressive, defensive minded midfielders.

With “the three Diego’s”, Lugano, Perez and Forlan up the spine, they have experience. Expect a physical, tight game, with Uruguay’s quality finishing likely to prove decisive. Ghana’s pace and strength will stretch Uruguay, as South Korea did, but, with Lugano looking after Asamoah Gyan, they are likely to miss the suspended wide-man Andre Ayew. Uruguay 2-1.

Argentina vs Germany; Germany aren’t about destructing, but constructing, so Lionel Messi won’t be man-marked as he was by Greece’s Sokratis Papastathopoulos, but the Germans will try to squeeze up, constrict his space, and impose their physical control over the game, with power and technique combined.

Their movement may be enough to stretch Argentina’s unconvincing defence, with Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Mueller likely to expose Argentina’s fullbacks. Germany 3-2.

Paraguay vs Spain; Paraguay’s excellent defence will make life as difficult as possible, absorbing and looking for the occasional moment up front, where they have a bit of quality in Lucas Barrios. Spain must remain switched on defensively, utilise width in attack and move the ball quickly.

By over-loading the midfield and control the game, they should be able to find that one goal, even if they have to wait till extra time, as France did against these same opponents on the way to their World Cup win in 1998. Spain 1-0.

My team of the first two rounds:

————————–Richard Kingson———————
——————————————————————–
Maicon——Lucio—–Diego Lugano——-Fabio Coentrao
——————————————————————
——————- —Bastian Schweinsteiger—————-
——————-Park Ji-Sung———————————-
—————————– —————————————
Thomas Mueller———–Mesut Ozil——–Andre Ayew
————————David Villa——————————

Some of the other notable performers to date: Carlos Salcido, Mauricio Isla, Alexis Sanchez, Marcus Tulio Tanaka, Ryan Nelsen, Paolo Da Silva, Cristian Riveros, Katlego Mphela, Siphiwe Tshabalala, Diego Perez, Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez, Michael Bradley, Landon Donovan, Anthony Annan, Asamoah Gyan, Kwadwo Asamoah, Daisuke Matsui, Yuto Nagatomo, Yuki Abe, Valter Birsa, Lionel Messi, Javier Pastore, Carlos Carmona, Andres Guardado, Vincent Enyeama, Vladimir Weiss, Robert Vittek, Gerard Pique, Andreas Iniesta, Sergio Ramos, Eljero Elia, Keisuke Honda, Robinho, Kaka, Luis Fabiano, Raul Meireles, Tiago, Gonzalo Higuain and Lukas Podolski.

Follow Tony on Twitter @TonyTannousTRBA
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