The Boks are favourites to win Tri-Nations 2010
Columnist By Spiro Zavos, 5 Jul 2010 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
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South Africa's Bakkies Botha, left, Victor Matfield and Bismarck du Plessis celebrate winning the Tri Nations Cup after defeating New Zealand in the Tri Nations International rugby match, Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, New Zealand, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009. (AP Photo/NZPA, David Rowland)
It’s hard to get around the probability that next Saturday’s Test between the All Blacks and the Springboks at Eden Park will define the outcome of the 2010 Tri Nations.
If the Springboks win, as the bookmakers (who put their money where their mouth is) say, then the likelihood is that they will win back-to-back Tri Nations tournaments in 2009 and 2010.
Last season the Springboks beat the All Blacks in three successive Tests, which set them up for their third Tri Nations title, and their first since 2004.
Chris Laidlaw, a former All Black great and now a writer and broadcaster of distinction about rugby, says of the current Springboks: “They have an almost perfect blend of strength, bulk, pace and guile… The Springboks have adapted to the new rule interpretations surprisingly well and they have no hang-ups about having to entertain the punters as well as win.”
He also argues that the Springboks are ‘better in almost every respect’ from the team that won the 2007 Rugby World Cup. I’d agree with this and his comments about the strength of this present Springboks side. It is one of South Africa’s greatest teams.
A number of the important members of the RWC 2007 side including the captain John Smit, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield and Bryan Habana are still playing. Just as importantly, in my opinion, the Springboks have discovered a kicking number 10, Morne Steyn, who can release the backs if needed but who plays the position game the Springboks love to play.
The Springboks always are a much stronger side when they have a good kicking number 10. This style suits their tradition of producing huge, athletic and fast forwards who run brilliantly from broken play.
Steyn also kicks goals from everywhere. In his 15 Tests he has kicked 23 conversions, 37 penalties and 5 dropped goals. Dan Carter in 69 Tests has kicked 181 conversions, 184 penalties, 2 drop goals. Matt Giteau in 81 Tests has 89 conversions, 90 penalties, 4 drop goals.
Steyn came into Test rugby with the ruck interpretations that rewarded the defensive team when it got its hands on the ball. He was able to convert the big penalty rate gained by the tough tackling Springboks into victories for his side. The value of his kicking game is highlighted by the higher number of penalties kicked over conversions (unlike Carter and Giteau), and the significant number of dropped goals he has kicked in his short Test career.
If the All Blacks and the Wallabies can play accurately and positively, and not give up penalties from the high pressure game inflicted on them by the Springboks, they have a chance to defeat the current champions.
The Wallabies did this, in fact, last season at Brisbane when they trounced the Springboks. The Queensland Reds did the same thing, as well, to the Bulls this season. Lang Park is a perfect surface for running rugby and the Wallabies will be playing the Springboks in their first 2010 Tri Nations Test after the Springboks will have had two successive weekends of Tests against the All Blacks.
The Wallabies will never have a better chance of defeating this Springboks side. Moreover, the Springboks have not won against the Wallabies at Brisbane since 1971.
A win at Brisbane, though, will be much easier or even possible if the All Blacks can win at least one of the first two Tests against the Springboks. There is a faint hope for them in the fact that last year they played without Daniel Carter, and the side itself seems to be stronger than last year’s team.
The new interpretations also favour the high-octane game the All Blacks are trying to develop. The question for them is whether they pay this game and not make mistakes at the break-down or with intercept passes that allowed the Springboks to dominate them last year.
The All Blacks have some history on their side. The last time they lost at Eden Park was in 1994. They have won 20 Tests there in a row making the ground something of a fortress for New Zealand rugby.
If any team can overwhelm that fortress it is the current Springboks. This is one of the great Springboks sides which has achieved that enviable habit, the habit of winning.
There is another intriguing aspect to all of this, and this is how the 2010 Tri Nations results will play out for next year’s World Cup tournament.
In the 1998 Tri Nations, the year before the World Cup in England won by the Wallabies, Australia finished 2, South Africa 1, New Zealand 3.
In 2002, the year before the World Cup in Australia won by England with Australia in the final, New Zealand finished 1, Australia 2, South Africa 3.
In 2006, the year before the World Cup in France won by the Springboks, New Zealand finished 1, Australia 2, South Africa 3.
Is there a pattern here? And does that pattern indicate that if a team wants to win the World Cup it should not win the Tri Nations the year before?
Personally, I believe that this sample is far too small for a rule to be made from all of this. We need about five or six more World Cup tournaments before we can start establishing patterns about when teams should peak.
What we do know is the 2011 RWC will be held in New Zealand.
This means that someone has to defeat the All Blacks for that side not to win the tournament. We also know that it is tough to defeat the All Blacks in New Zealand. The Wallabies and the Springboks will need to get all the practice at achieving this they can in the next two Tri Nations tournaments.
Which brings us back to Eden Park next Saturday night and its must-win aspect for the All Blacks and the Springboks.
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July 5th 2010 @ 1:06pm
Brett McKay said | July 5th 2010 @ 1:06pm | Report comment
for the Roarers from the Republic, have I got it right that Bekker is also out of the TNs, along with du Preez?? Is Botha an automatic selection alongside Matfield, or is there someone else who’s temporarily slipped my memory??
July 5th 2010 @ 1:11pm
van der Merwe said | July 5th 2010 @ 1:11pm | Report comment
Bekker is in the squad and started against Italy. Rossouw is the only other option.
July 5th 2010 @ 1:15pm
Brett McKay said | July 5th 2010 @ 1:15pm | Report comment
cheers vdM, it will be interesting to see how he goes in international company..
July 5th 2010 @ 2:09pm
Rusty said | July 5th 2010 @ 2:09pm | Report comment
This will be the season where we see what Bekker is made of and if he can follow through from his superlative super rugby form. I hope so as we are going to need him post ’11 RWC.
Will have to see who will be his locking partner – will be interested to see how Skeate goes at the Sharks.
July 5th 2010 @ 5:19pm
Ivan Nel said | July 5th 2010 @ 5:19pm | Report comment
There is also Flip van der Merwe. Bekker is not injured and will be there as a replacement for Matfield. Bakkies Botha will retake his no.4 spot, with Danie Rossouw as cover.
July 5th 2010 @ 1:51pm
johnny-boy said | July 5th 2010 @ 1:51pm | Report comment
Well at least the Wallabies are underdogs (or is that subterranean hounds ). We have to be thankful for small mercies. It looks like all we’ve got at the moment.
July 5th 2010 @ 3:21pm
kiwi_tev said | July 5th 2010 @ 3:21pm | Report comment
gonna be a great 3n’s i reckon. the blacks have definitely (pleasingly!) introduced some great young talent this year. these young guys all have long all black careers ahead of them if they wish, and already add alot of extra zip to the side. the debate about thomson is irrelevant as hes not there, and messam is. i have no doubts about our loosies, kaino is very underrated in my opinion.with donnelly and franks being picked our forwards are looking a great unit. its all about who will impose their gameplan effectively, across the whole feild, who will pevail. and i definitely wouldn’t count out the ozzies, as usual.
July 5th 2010 @ 4:42pm
Ziggy said | July 5th 2010 @ 4:42pm | Report comment
SA cannot win TRi N without du Preez.
July 5th 2010 @ 5:00pm
KevKom said | July 5th 2010 @ 5:00pm | Report comment
Score is still 0-0.
July 5th 2010 @ 5:10pm
andrew said | July 5th 2010 @ 5:10pm | Report comment
My view is from Australia, and the pattern is clear. Any time that we can beat NZ in NZ, (1990 Wellington, 1998 Christchurch), we are dead-set, glasses down certainties for the following World Cup. Helps if we can arrange the draw so the French play the All Blacks in the semis (1999), but if not, armed with a recent victory in NZ, we will do the business on neutral ground (1991).
It is more important than ever to get a victory there this year, as the RWC is not neutral ground next year!
When looking ofr patterns, it should be noted that the boks completely over-achieved in 2007 (and well done to them). It is true that you can only beat the guys you play, but I have no doubt that either NZ or Australia would have cleaned them up.
July 5th 2010 @ 5:11pm
Gilbank said | July 5th 2010 @ 5:11pm | Report comment
BOKS FAVOURITES TO SEND EVERYONE TO SLEEP BEFORE OTHER TEAMS DO IN CONTRIVED RUGBY YAWNION COMP
July 5th 2010 @ 6:09pm
SA said | July 5th 2010 @ 6:09pm | Report comment
ya ya mate… dont think you watched any super 14? the SA teams were the most exciting. stick to your league champ. let the big boys play now
July 5th 2010 @ 5:16pm
Ivan Nel said | July 5th 2010 @ 5:16pm | Report comment
I think NZ will win the 3N this year, and as a Bok fan that does not upset me really. If the boks take this 3N, I cannot see them having hte hunger to finish the job off in 2011. A loss to NZ now may do wonders for SA in their WC preparations.
Dear All Blacks
Bakkies Botha, Pierre Spies.
The End.
July 6th 2010 @ 10:26pm
dunc said | July 6th 2010 @ 10:26pm | Report comment
dear ivan nel
dont worry as a Kiwi I think that Spies and Bakkies are awesome.
bring on the rough and tumble. And look out for Richie Revenge McCaw!
July 5th 2010 @ 10:46pm
funmaster said | July 5th 2010 @ 10:46pm | Report comment
Ivan Nel, Your not a bok fan. If you were, then you wouldnt have leave that rediculas comment. Boks dont expect anyone else to win but themselves, ALWAYS!! (sorry 4 the spellings, english not 1st language)
July 6th 2010 @ 12:25am
Frank O'Keeffe said | July 6th 2010 @ 12:25am | Report comment
I’m really excited for this first Test this weekend. As far as I’m concerned there’s a little more at stake than just a tri-nations win.
South Africa have won at least one Test in New Zealand these past two seasons, previously that was very hard for them (or anyone else to do). But this game is at Auckland, the great New Zealand fortress.
New Zealand finished off last year pretty well. And a lot of their out of form players from last year are now playing well again – guys like Rokocoko and S’Oliolo (I never get his name right so why bother?).
South Africa seem to have overcome any mental challenge that playing in New Zealand poses for them as well. They won’t be surprised if they win. They can win. They know they can beat New Zealand in New Zealand now.
In the head to head stakes South Africa are catching New Zealand as well.
I think South Africa will win. Sadly both South Africa and New Zealand look lightyears ahead of the Wallabies this year…
Now is a good time to pause and reflect… I remember in 2008 how Robbie Deans was the new great hope, and PDV was getting mauled in the media for being a joke of a coach. Two years later and look what they have accomplished.
Hail Peter de Villiers!
July 6th 2010 @ 6:41am
Socboy said | July 6th 2010 @ 6:41am | Report comment
Should South Africa lose both tests in New Zealand, it will surely test this theory of the Boks being mentally tough and knowing how to win in NZ right?
July 6th 2010 @ 6:44am
Mr Saunders said | July 6th 2010 @ 6:44am | Report comment
Depends how they lose, I would suppose. Even if they do lose both games one cannot ignore three away wins in two seasons and the most recent Super results.
July 6th 2010 @ 7:02am
Socboy said | July 6th 2010 @ 7:02am | Report comment
You have a point there for sure.
But still one can not go past that the ABs were rather rubbish last year especially in the first half of the Tri-Nations, this years squad is looking much more composed and with the competition for spaces in next years WC squad heating up I find it hard to see this ABs team losing at home in Auckland especially.
The thing is I can see the excuses already should SA or the ABs lose.
1. Our travel was disrupted and the team had to travel in two contingents which they did because there wasn’t enough business class seats for the whole team, poor babies can’t do cattle class with the common folk.
2. Fatigue as they only arrived on Monday
3. Players missing for injury
4. The ref and the world hates South Africa
5. Richie is a cheat
All Blacks
1. This Tri nations is about building depth (yeah right the squad should have been settled in the June tests)
2. Players missing from injury (Ali he’s been missing for years)
3. The guys are struggling as they haven’t had much rugby of late. ( refer to excuse one)
4. The Boks are dirty thugs
It never ceases to amaze me but you can guarantee some of these excuses will be trotted out come Sunday. It’s the same ole same ole just a different year.
July 6th 2010 @ 7:06am
Mr Saunders said | July 6th 2010 @ 7:06am | Report comment
Equally Australia has been pretty rubbish during NZ’s 7 game winning streak – that’s rugby. At the end of the day only two sides have beaten NZ in two seasons, and two of those four losses have come at home to SA. Further, the SA Super sides posted excellent away records. In my eyes SA supporters and the Springboks themselves have a lot to be positive about.
July 6th 2010 @ 7:31am
Socboy said | July 6th 2010 @ 7:31am | Report comment
They have a lot to be positive about for sure.
But as everyone knows at the top there is only one way you can go and that is down and technically speaking the Boks aren’t at the top but we wont go there right now.
Should the ABs win both tests at home it will go some way to nullifying the hype that South Africa is the best team on the planet.
Super rugby is just that super rugby the 3N is a different beast.
I’m looking forward to some hard hitting and fast rugby that this competition is famous for.
July 6th 2010 @ 7:42am
Mr Saunders said | July 6th 2010 @ 7:42am | Report comment
Super rugby is a different beast, but that the Springboks have won away in NZ for two consecutive seasons and that their Super sides have posted such excellent results in NZ illustrates beyond doubt that even if SA lose they still must have mental strength and know how to win in NZ for the simple reason that so many SA players have won in NZ recently.
Further, SA may well lose, but if they lose by a small amount then that will hardly diminish their reputation. Only if NZ win comfortably as SA beat NZ in SA last season will the status quo be firmly challenged, It’s all well and good being ranked number 1 in the world and having the measure of other sides, but as OJ points out, Graham Henry has struggled with SA much more than any other national side since 2004.
July 6th 2010 @ 8:28am
Socboy said | July 6th 2010 @ 8:28am | Report comment
Mr Saunders this is where I do have to question how both you and OJ have come to this conclusion that SA has had the wood over NZ since 2004?
2004 – it was 1 match each to SA and NZ both winning their home fixtures. Actually this 3N came down to points diifferential as all three teams won both home games.
Sa were eventual 3N winners
2005 – NZ won both matches against the boks 22-16 at Newlands, 31-27 at Carisbrook
NZ 3N winners
2006 – NZ won 2 lost 1. 35-17 Wellington, 45-26 Loftus, going down 21-20 at Rustenburg
NZ 3N winners
2007 – Again NZ had an unbeaten 3N against SA 26-21 in Durban, 33-6 Christchurch
NZ 3N winners
2008 – NZ won 2 lost 1 19-8 Wellington, lost 28-30 in Dunedin, then turned this around and kept the Boks to a big fat doughnut 19-0 in Capetown.
2009 – Yes we all know the Boks won three matches in a row 2 at home 28-19, 31-19 and the last match in Hamilton by 3 points
So I applied some simple maths here, in the last 15 matches New Zealand has won 9 South Africa 6 the last time a team won three in a row was the All Blacks who then went on to fall at the WC in controversial circumstance, so maybe the Boks run is an omen.
Of the 9 matches NZ has won 5 were at home four in SA, of the 6 matches SA has won two were in New Zealand and four in SA.
So yes I can admit SA had the wood over NZ last year but to say they have had the wood since 2004 is Stretching the truth considerably.
15 matches played NZ sit at 9-6, 6 Titles and NZ sit 4-2
July 6th 2010 @ 8:30am
Socboy said | July 6th 2010 @ 8:30am | Report comment
SA have not had the wood over NZ since 2004
Last year yes but since 2004 that is an extreme stretching of the truth and facts
New Zealand and SA have played each other 15 times with NZ winning 9-6
NZ have won 5 at home and four on the road
SA have won 4 at home and two on the road
6 titles played and NZ has four compared to SA 2
SA had a great year last year but lets not get carried away with the truth here
July 6th 2010 @ 8:46am
Mr Saunders said | July 6th 2010 @ 8:46am | Report comment
This is becoming too predictable. Please read what I have said and stop making subjective and incorrect inferences. SA have had two seasons of dominance over NZ. That is the fact of the matter. Losing two tests will not eradicate that. Stop trying to undermine and underplay the achievements of SA. If you have nothing constructive to say why even comment?
July 6th 2010 @ 9:37am
Socboy said | July 6th 2010 @ 9:37am | Report comment
Two seasons of dominance, you have to be joking
2008 I don’t know if you watched the same Tri-Nations as everyone else but South Africa were far from Dominant over the ABs. Going down 18-3 in Wellington and 19-0 in Capetown and winning 30-28 in Dunedin
So how about you take heed of your own words and stop trying to push your opinion which has no factual basis aside from 2009. In 2008 the Boks were kept scoreless at home by the ABs so how do you get dominance from that?
South Africa finished dead last in 2008 winning a paltry 2 from 6 matches
2009 South Africa definitely had their foot on the AB’s throat no one is arguing that
2010 is a new Season l
July 6th 2010 @ 9:40am
Mr Saunders said | July 6th 2010 @ 9:40am | Report comment
I’m not trying to push any opinion. Again, I ask you to re-read what I have said (all the way from my initial post down to my last), stop being so aggressive and stop trying to undermine SA rugby. It’s a very, very predictable routine by now. Since 2008 SA have beaten NZ two times, with two of those victories being on NZ soil. NZ have beaten SA twice, with one win on SA soil. Simple.
July 6th 2010 @ 10:31am
Socboy said | July 6th 2010 @ 10:31am | Report comment
The only thing simple here is your inability to accept you were wrong.
But hey keep changing the posts to suit your argument saunders I find it extremely amusing.
Firstly you quote
“It’s all well and good being ranked number 1 in the world and having the measure of other sides, but as OJ points out, Graham Henry has struggled with SA much more than any other national side since 2004.”
Ah I suggest looking at the history since 2004 I think you will actually find otherwise
Again another quote from your above posts
“SA have had two seasons of dominance over NZ. That is the fact of the matter.”
Once again no they haven’t 2008 tells a completely different factual scenario to the one which you are implying.
Also funny how here in your last comment all of a sudden it’s only the last 2 seasons that count.
I have never denied South Africa’s achievements of 2009 there is no way you could possibly they were head and shoulders above the rest.
I will continue to debate this so called dominance and struggle since 2004 as you dub it because like I have said many times the Facts and stats prove otherwise
July 7th 2010 @ 7:27am
Lee said | July 7th 2010 @ 7:27am | Report comment
Whats with the miss quoting, and then getting angry thing Socboy…
In the first quote you attached from MS, it says:
“It’s all well and good being ranked number 1 in the world and having the measure of other sides, but as OJ points out, Graham Henry has struggled with SA much more than any other national side since 2004.”
No where in that does he say the Boks have been better than the ABs since 2004, he says that Graham Henry has struggled with th eBoks more than any other side i.e. if you look at the results over the last 10 years the Boks have the best win/loss ratio agaisnt the ABs than any other side – again not saying it is a positive win loss ratio just that it is better than any other side.
July 7th 2010 @ 9:41am
Socboy said | July 7th 2010 @ 9:41am | Report comment
What about the selective reading of posts Lee,
Don’t come in here having a go at me when quiter clearly you have not been reading the posts Saunders has been making.
Saunders also states that the Boks have been dominant over the Abs the Last two seasons. Actually no the haven’t 2008 tells a completely different story but of course yes lets forget that almighty stuff up by Saunders and attack Socboy.
While South Africa may have a better result than other nations they are still on the worng side of the ledger, so While they have proved a challenge the All Blacks have managed more often than not to repel the Bok challenge. Again noone not even I have ever debated 2009 so you can well and truly leave that behind.
Short and simple South Africa lose in NZ both games they will lose much of the Hype and ascendancy that you say they have. Win and the will confirm they are a very good side.